April 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In April the normal IMT is 8.4 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
2. Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
3. Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
4. Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error).
5. Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in April is about 5 hours a day. Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
6. BONUS for April __ Predict the maximum total rainfall (in mm) for 1 to 7 April inclusive, at any of the 25 locations used by met.ie, and give your guess as to location. Points will be 7 for amount, and 3 for location, with superbonus available. Will fit scoring to a good spread of points but to get maximum location points you will need to guess correct location (amount for contest forecast amount is not the total at your guessed location, but at all locations).

1. As always, deadline 0300h of 1st April, late penalties 1 point per 4 hours to 1500h 2nd and 1 point per hour afterwards.
2. I will post forecasts for myself and NormaL in next two days; NormaL's bonus forecast will be GFS grid maximum on 00z run Apr 1st.
3. Good luck (can't get rid of indent format in this new reply box they are using on Boards, no real reason to point-form lower portion, but it is done …

waterways

waterways ___ 8.4 ___ 22.8 ___ -2.0 ___ 99 ___ 109 ___ 95 Sherkin Island

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___ 9.0 ___ 19.8 ___ -3.2 ___ 185 ___ 85 ___ 60 Johnstown Castle

Gonzo

Gonzo ___ 9.4 ___ 19.2 ___ -1.4 ___ 217 ___ 82 ___ 78 Dunsany

Joe Public

Joe Public___ 8.8 ___ 21.3 ___ -2.2 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 29 Roches Point

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___ 8.7 ___ 18.9 ___ -2.6 ___ 160 ___ 90 ___ 55 Johnstown Castle

Bsal

Bsal ___ 8.9 ___ 18.7 ___ -2.0 ___ 150 ___ 95 ___ 58 Oak Park

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 8.7 ___ 19.1 ___ -2.2 ___ 137 ___ 88 ___ 42 Valentia

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___ 9.1___ 21.0 ___ -1.5 ___ 120 ___ 95 ___ 52 Johnstown castle

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 8.6° ___ 20 ___ -1.5 ___ 140 ___ 90 ___ 54 Valentia.

pauldry

Pauldry ___ 9.3___ 19.8 ___ -1.4 ___ 130___ 99___ 77 Valentia

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 9.0 ___ 18.5 ___ -2.0 ___ 120 ___ 100 ___ 50 Valentia

John mac

john mac ___ 8.9 ___ 22.9 ___ -1.8 ___ 104 ___ 109 ___ 104 Sherkin Island

rameire

Rameire ___ 8.7 ___ 20.0 ___ -1.0 ___ 140 ___ 90 ___ 65 Valentia

M.T. Cranium

For MTC ______10.1 _ 23.8 _ -1.5 _ 158 _ 100 _____ 98.2 Athenry

For NorMaL ____ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 85.0 Mace head (12z GFS)

… I said 00z for NorMaL, but as 2/3 of field entered now, will level playing field and use 12z as shown.

… I assume all bonus answers are mm and not % …

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ____ 9.4 _ 20.5 _ -0.8 _ 125 _ 105 _____ 85.0 Knock

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall ___8.8___19.2___-2.2___92___105___88__Sherkin Island

mrskinner

Skinner___9.2___21.2___-3.2___110___100___70___Valentia.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 9.6 _ 20.4 _ -0.3 _ 145 _ 108 _____ 71.0 Valentia

200motels

200motels 8.9 ___ 19.5 ___ -1.9 ___ 172 ___ 91 ___ 98 Sherkin Island

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad __9.2____19.9___-1.8_____155___85____79 Valentia

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 9.2 ___ 20.2 ___ -2.6 ___ 202 ___ 86 ___ 76.5 Sherkin Island

appledrop

Appledrop 9.4____19.5___-1.6__167__93__66 Sherkin Island

WolfeEire

Late entry ….

Wolfeire ___ 9.8___ 19 ___ -2 ___ 133___ 100___ 68 Roches Point

Tazio

Late entry_02….

Tazio___ 9.0___ 17 ___ 0.0 ___ 125___ 110___ 80 Valentia

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April 2024

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Total prec 1-7, loc'n

M.T. Cranium_______10.1 _ 23.8 _ -1.5 _ 158 _ 100 ___(2) 98.2 _Athenry

WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___9.8 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 133 _ 100 ___(14) 68.0 _Roches Point

Tae laidir __________ 9.6 _ 20.4 _ -0.3 _ 145 _ 108 ___(12) 71.0 _Valentia

Jpmarn ____________9.4 _ 20.5 _ -0.8 _ 125 _ 105 ___(6) 85.0 _Knock

Appledrop __________9.4 _ 19.5 _ -1.6 _ 167 _ 093 ___(15) 66.0 _Sherkin Island

Gonzo _____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -1.4 _ 217 _ 082 ___(9) 78.0 _Dunsany

Pauldry ____________9.3 _ 19.8 _ -1.4 _ 130 _ 099 ___(10) 77.0 _Valentia

MrSkinner __________9.2 _ 21.2 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 100 ___(13) 70.0 _Valentia

Dacogawa __________9.2 _ 20.2 _ -2.6 _ 202 _ 086 ___(11) 76.5 _Sherkin Island

Cornerstonelad ______9.2 _ 19.9 _ -1.8 _ 155 _ 085 ___(8) 79.0 _Valentia

Sunflower3 _________9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___(21) 52.0 _Johnstown castle

Artane2002 ________ 9.0 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 185 _ 085 ___(17) 60.0 _Johnstown Castle

… Con Sensus _______9.0 _ 19.8 _ -1.9 _ 140 _ 097 ___ 70.5 _see discussion below

Dasa29 ____________9.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___(22) 50.0 _Valentia

Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 9.0 _ 17.0 __ 0.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___(7) 80.0 _Valentia

john mac __________ 8.9 _ 22.9 _ -1.8 _ 104 _ 109 ___(1) 104.0 _Sherkin Island

200motels _________ 8.9 _ 19.5 _ -1.9 _ 172 _ 091 ___(3) 98.0 _Sherkin Island

Bsal ______________ 8.9 _ 18.7 _ -2.0 _ 150 _ 095 ___(18) 58.0 _Oak Park

Joe Public __________8.8 _ 21.3 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 120 ___(24) 29.0 _Roches Point

Mr Stonewall _______ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -2.2 _ 092 _ 105 ___(5) 88.0 _Sherkin Island

Rameire ___________8.7 _ 20.0 _ -1.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___(16) 65.0 _Valentia

DOCARCH _________ 8.7 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 137 _ 088 ___(23) 42.0 _Valentia

sryanbruen ________ 8.7 _ 18.9 _ -2.6 _ 160 _ 090 ___(19) 55.0 _Johnstown Castle

Kindred Spirit ______ 8.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___(20) 54.0 _Valentia

waterways _________8.4 _ 22.8 _ -2.0 _ 099 _ 109 ___(4) 95.0 _Sherkin Island

….NormaL _________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___(6) 85.0 _Mace head (31-03 12z GFS)

___________________________-

For the location of wettest recording site 1-7 April we have 24 forecasts (beside Normal)

Valentia __ 9 picks ___ Con Sensus scores 3/3 if correct

Sherkin Island _ 6 ___ Con Sensus scores 2/3 if correct

Johnstown Castle _ 3 _ Con Sensus scores 1/3 if correct

Roches Point _____ 2 _Con Sensus scores 1/3 if correct

Athenry, Dunsany, Oak Park, Knock _ 1 _Con Sensus scores 1/3 if correct

all other locations ____Con Sensus scores 0/3 if correct

Normal will score 3/3 if Mace head is correct, and 2/3 if a western location is correct, 1/3 for central, south (based on guidance used for forecast)

Location scores for forecasters will depend on range of outcomes, so we get a reasonable spread of 2/3 and 1/3 scores.

As to amounts predicted, number in brackets places in order.

pauldry

After 3 days of the rainfall prediction thing. There isn't really any excessive total anywhere yet. About 12 to 15mm in parts of the South and East. Thursday to Sunday are the days that will add much more.

Sligo won't win anyways. Wer on 0.3mm though the weekend storm will boost ours.

pauldry

After 4 days I'd say Valentia and Johnstone are leading. Around 30mm of rain in these areas so far this month. Might be missing others but just looking quickly.

M.T. Cranium

Turns out 1-8 April would have done us better, but as far as actual contest amounts, I will post a running total for 1-5 Apr around mid-afternoon Saturday and will include rain reported on 6th if possible. After four days, Valentia and J—Castle were nearly tied but as of 0100h Valentia is considerably ahead near 46 mm. Will update all this later and see where things stand after current storm has moved through all regions.

DOCARCH

High of 17.0c at Phoenix Park yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Precip totals so far (incl today after 01h)

Valentia _______ 49.2+4.4 = 53.6

Johnstown C ___ 36.5+1.5 = 38.0

__ Cork _______ 37.2+0.3 = 37.5

Sherkin Is _____ 35.3+1.4 = 36.7

__ Moore Park __32.9+1.3= 34.2

Oak Park ______23.4+5.1 = 28.5

Roches Pt _____ 26.1+0.2 = 26.3

__ Belmullet ___16.7 +9.1 = 25.8

Knock ________ 19.7+3.6 = 23.3

Athenry _______20.7+1.9 = 22.6

Mace Head ____ 19.3 +2.6 = 21.9 (Normal)

Dunsany ______ 20.7+0.5 = 21.2

(no other unpicked locations currently above 21 mm)

(unpicked locations in list are indented)

Will update list on Monday 8 April … for location scoring currently would give 3/3 for Valentia, 2/3 for JC, SI picks and 1/3 for rest, as all picks are in top portion of 25-location grid (didn't list all totals below Dunsany's 21.2). Will revisit that concept at end of play.

While this shows the weaknesses in GFS forecasting, their 30h projections to end of the contest period would suggest a further 2-4 mm possible for most, 12-14 mm at Valentia to pad the lead.

We have three forecasts (and our Con Sensus) looking good for top points overall … approx order of points expected

MrSkinner _________70.0 _Valentia

Consensus ________ 70.5 _ (Valentia)

Tae laidir __________71.0 _Valentia

Rameire __________ 65.0 _Valentia

Appledrop _________66.0 _Sherkin Island

WolfeEire _________ 68.0 _Roches Point

Pauldry ___________77.0 _Valentia

Dacogawa _________76.5 _Sherkin Island

Cornerstonelad _____79.0 _Valentia

Tazio _____________80.0 _Valentia

Artane2002 ________60.0 _Johnstown Castle

Gonzo ____________78.0 _Dunsany

Bsal _____________ 58.0 _Oak Park

Kindred Spirit ______54.0 _Valentia

Dasa29 ___________50.0 _Valentia

sryanbruen ________55.0 _Johnstown Castle

Sunflower3 ________52.0 _Johnstown castle

Joe Public _________29.0 _Roches Point

Jpmarn ___________85.0 _Knock

DOCARCH _________42.0 _Valentia

Mr Stonewall ______ 88.0 _Sherkin Island

….NormaL _________85.0 _Mace head (31-03 12z GFS)

waterways ________ 95.0 _Sherkin Island

200motels ________ 98.0 _Sherkin Island

john mac ________ 104.0 _Sherkin Island

M.T. Cranium_______98.2 _Athenry