Ante post football bets 2023/24

jacool · 30-05-2023 8:51pm #1

I can't believe I am starting this in May, but May it is and here we go.

Premier League 2023/24 winner - 12Aug2023 is a massive 7 days away!

Manchester City - 8/15, Arsenal - 9/1, Liverpool - 9/1, Manchester United - 12/1, Newcastle - 12/1, Chelsea - 16/1, Tottenham - 40/1, Brighton - 66/1.

Top 4 finish: Man City - 1/20, Arsenal - 5/6, Liverpool - 5/6, Man Utd - 11/10, Newcastle - 6/5, Chelsea - 11/8, Tottenham - 9/4, Brighton - 11/4, Aston Villa - 8/1

The Sporting Life wrote a big article about xP "the calculation of the number of points a team expect to collect based on chances created and conceded in each game"

Based on this, they say a big "NO" to Arsenal (overperformed xP by 13.6), Manchester United (12.7) and Fulham (11.0). They would say that both the Gunners and Red Devils might struggle to get CL football next season with improvements expected from Chelsea, Liverpool, and yet again, Newcastle. They tip Fulham to go down.

Premier League relegation odds

Luton Town - 2/5, Sheffield United - 10/11, Bournemouth - 2/1, Burnley - 9/4, Nottingham Forest - 5/2, Everton - 10/3, Fulham - 10/3, Brentford - 9/2, Wolves 5/1.

Only one team fits the "reverse xP" argument, West Ham United, and at 5/6, they reckon they are well priced for a top half finish.

Sky Bet Championship 23/24 winner

Leicester - 5/1, Leeds - 11/2, Middlesbrough - 10/1, Southampton - 10/1, Ipswich - 14/1, Norwich - 14/1, Watford - 14/1, West Brom - 14/1.

Promotion: Leicester - 13/8, Leeds - 7/4. Too small for both those clubs if you ask me.

Sky Bet League One 23/24 winner

Derby - 5/1, Bolton - 8/1, Peterborough - 8/1, Reading - 10/1, Portmouth - 11/1, Barnsley - 11/1, Charlton - 18/1, Blackpool - 20/1.

Sky Bet League Two 23/24 winner

Wrexham - 7/2, Stockport - 6/1, Notts County - 8/1, Gillingham - 10/1, Bradford - 12/1, MK Dons - 14/1, Salford - 16/1, Mansfield - 18/1

Promotion: Wrexham - 10/11, Stockport - 11/8, Notts County - 13/8, Gillingham - 2/1, Bradford - 9/4, MK Dons - 5/2, Salford - 3/1, Mansfield - 10/3

The lowly Gills are priced right up near the two promoted sides simply because after the financial investment in January, they picked up 40 from 69 available points. Last season, the world , her mother, and 75% of the Racing post tipsters went for Mansfield, backing them into 11/1 after the big bets earlier had made Stockport 6/1 favs.

Lionel Fusco · 31-05-2023 9:41am

I fancy Wolves and Bournemouth to go down myself. I'm trying to find a price for Cardiff to be relegated from the championship as they appear to be a club in disarray at the moment.

rekluse · 31-05-2023 3:58pm

Your in early jacool , I like it 😀 I've been 5/7 the last two years on ante post bets, third times a charm as they say ! I'll be waiting till July before any bets but will be keeping an eye on this thread through the summer.

rekluse · 31-05-2023 3:59pm

Can't belive wrexham straight in as favs for league 2 after just getting promotion !

jacool · 31-05-2023 4:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120660928#Comment_120660928

Bet365 have priced it up and its 4/1. You can see that a few people are nibbling at it already - about 1 in 6 bets are on Cardiff!

Lionel Fusco · 31-05-2023 4:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120662766#Comment_120662766

Good man I'll be having a few pound on now while 4s is still available

Brussels Sprout · 31-05-2023 4:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120662713#Comment_120662713

They have a massive budget. They came up with (what I presume was) a record points haul. Most of the players that they have bought are at the required level - they were either playing in League 1 or were top performers in League 2 (e.g Mullin). No doubt they will be beefing up their squad again this summer and basically have all of the momentum behind them.

rekluse · 31-05-2023 7:00pm

I'm not saying they wont win it, but To be honest i don't watch enough national league / league 2 discern how much of a difference how much difference there is between the two leagues. It just seens strange that a team from NL is straight favs for league 2. Tbh it's probably a good thing for me as I usually back a team for top 7 so it will push the likes of Stockport/ Salford price out.

jacool · 01-06-2023 9:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120663486#Comment_120663486

The gap must not be much, because last year's champions were Stockport, and they were heavily backed to go up, eventually losing in the play-off final. The bookies have baked in both the funds at Wrexham, plus their huge profile, as people who know nothing about football, but watch a lot of Netflix, will back them, and have gone short as a result. People not in the know will back them at any price, blissfully unaware that they might not necessarily be getting any value.

This shows how many people are "on" already. Only the mighty Gills have been backed more, to maintain their 2023 form across a new season.

Loafing Oaf · 30-07-2023 12:53pm

This is out tomorrow, for anyone looking for 'expert' guidance

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/the-big-kick-off/dont-miss-the-big-kick-off-the-ultimate-football-betting-guide-aTRdZ3r7XokG/

jacool · 31-07-2023 10:31pm

Got this today, will put in bits here tomorrow.

Brutal PL summary.

Usual suspects win from either Arsenal or Liverpool.

Everton relegated, Luton bottom.

rekluse · 02-08-2023 5:10pm

My dart for the season after reading the RP preview and doing a bit of deep dive onto some fan forums. Man United top 6, Leicester top 6, Bolton top 6, Stockport top 7, Chesterfield top 7, Aberdeen top 6, Ac Milan top 4, Rennes top 6, RB Leipzeig top 4, Atletico top 4. 75£ staked for £2460 back. Good luck all.

jacool · 03-08-2023 3:28pm

The BIG KICK-OFF: EPL

Man City 7 Liverpool 1
Arsenal 4 Liverpool 3 Man City 1
Arsenal 4 Liverpool 2 Man Utd 2
Man Utd 6 Liverpool 1 Newcastle 1

Golden Boot (w/o Haaland) Kane 2, Son 2, Watkins, Saka, Darwin Nunez. Tipped @11/1 Rashford, @12/1 Jesus

Sack Race Iraola 3 Cooper 2 Lopetegui 1 Tipped @16/1 Iraola

Luton goals 24 25 30 25 25 20+

Best bet per club, clubs in order of predicted finish!

MC PL&CL double

LIV w/o MC 3/1

ARS Top London Club

MU >CHE

NEW GB: Wilson e.w.

CHE Kepa Golden Glove

TOT outside Top 6

AST >BRI

BRI Top scorer: @4/1 Ferguson

CRY >WHU

BRE >FUL

BUR Top scorer: @4/1 Benson

BOU >41.5 points

WHU <BRE

FUL >EVE

NF Awoniyi 15+ goals

WOL >BOU

EVE Relegated 3/1

SU <33.5 points

LUT bottom @6/4

Assists 9/1 TAA 25/1 Maddison

BRE>EVE 5/6

Ferguson (BRI) 16+ goals 11/4

Grealish outscore Bowen @7/4

jacool · 03-08-2023 3:45pm

Next 3 leagues. Be nice to pull a treble from the top scorers! Be warned, chronic market. Winners in CHA and L1 for 22/23, weren't in the betting at all last year!

jacool · 03-08-2023 3:50pm

Lucky 15 for winners across the 4 leagues

The consensus is therefore, Man City, Leicester, Bolton, Stockport. 420/1 or thereabouts :)

rekluse · 03-08-2023 6:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120935251#Comment_120935251

Cheers jacool for posting these, very quiet in here considering the footy is back tomorrow? Anyways I've gone for the above but thew in Chesterfield for about an 850/1 acca with the spare 3 quid in my powers account.

Loafing Oaf · 04-08-2023 3:41pm

First tranche

Going with Ellis Simms @ 20/1 and Jerry Yates @ 25/1 for championship top goalscorer

Also a whole clatter of request-a-bets:

Liverpool to finish in top 4, Leicester to be promoted, Bolton to finish in top 6 & Notts County and Stockport to finish in top 7 @ 12/1

Norwich to be promoted, Ipswich to finish in top 6 & Sunderland to finish in top half @ 20/1

Leeds to be promoted, Middlesbrough to finish in top 6 & Swansea to finish in top half @ 17/2

Ipswich to be promoted, Norwich to finish in top 6 & Millwall to finish in top half @ 20/1

Coventry to finish in top 6 & QPR and Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated @ 50/1

Leicester to win the league & Huddersfield and Rotherham to be relegated @ 40/

and a couple of accas:

Stoke @ 8/11 Top Half Finish/Wrexham @ 1/1 Top 3 Finish/Motherwell @ 11/8 Top 6 Finish/Arsenal @ 9/4 Finish Outside Top 4

Derby @ 4/9 Top 6 Finish/Southampton @ 10/11 Top 6 Finish/ Bayern Munich @ 2/7 German Bundesliga Winner/ Hibernian @ 4/11 Top 6 Finish/

Manchester City/Erling Haaland @ 11/10 Winner/Top Goalscorer

Collie D · 05-08-2023 10:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120935251#Comment_120935251

Went with this. Each way accum and win trebles.

Lionel Fusco · 07-08-2023 3:39pm

Sheffield United to finish bottom at 11/4 and Bournemouth to finish in the top half at 15/2 are 2 I've landed on.

famagusta · 09-08-2023 2:27pm

Another season upon us.. i came close to landing the big accum last season, we go again!

I played it safe this year with the main bet, ii wonder which will let me down!

Main bet €500 to win €8000

AC Milan Top 4 Seria A 8/13

Aston Villa to beat Wolves Season Long match bet 1/4

Swansea to beat Cardiff in season long match bet 1/2

Hibs Top 6 SPL 1/3

Aberdeen Top 6 SPL 1/5

Bolton Top 6 8/11

Stockport Top 7 4/9

RB Leipzeig Top 4 1/3

Also, 250 ew Ollie Watkins top scorer WITHOUT Haaland 16/1, i really like this bet

Ollie Watkins w/o Haaland and Conor Chaplin Top scorer EW double

Loafing Oaf · 11-08-2023 7:53pm

second, premiership-centric tranche

Golden Glove: Onana, Pope, Kepa

Sack Race: Iraola, Silva, Howe

PFA POTY: Stones, Rice

Request-a-bets:

Chelsea and Portsmouth to finish in top 6, Bradford to finish in top 7 & Nunez to score 15+ league goals @10

Middlesbrough and Barnsley to be promoted & Sheffield Utd to be relegated @ 18/1

Rashford, Son and Watkins each to score 15+ league goals & Fernandes, Foden and Saka each to score 10+ league goals @ 15/2

and, departing the reservation, Martinelli to score 15+ league goals, Havertz to score 2+ headed league goals, Rice to score 3+ league goals from outside the penalty area & Alexander-Arnold to assist 15+ league goals @ 66/1

top club goaloscorer accas: Ferguson/Awoniyi/Salah/Solanke and Richarlison/Benson/Hojlund

plus the obligatory trans-European accas:

Coventry @ 8/11 Top Half Finish/Bayer Leverkusen @ 5/4 Top 4 Finish/Arsenal @ 6/4 Premier League Winner Without Man City 23/24/

Atlético Madrid @ 5/6 La Liga Without Barcelona & Real Madrid

RB Leipzig @ 2/7 Top 4 Finish/ Marseille @ 1/2 Top 4 Finish/ Luton Town @ 9/4 Team To Score Least Goals/ Robert Lewandowski @ 8/15 Spanish La Liga Top Goalscorer/ Milan @ 8/11 Top 4 Finish

famagusta · 15-08-2023 3:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956681#Comment_120956681

i have added Dominic Solanke Top scorer without the big norwegian, 100/1 ew first 4

Loafing Oaf · 16-08-2023 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966974#Comment_120966974

Golden Glove: Kepa

Off to a flying start. In hindsight kind of figures he was 20/1...

Loafing Oaf · 19-09-2023 5:27pm

Few Champions League fluttters for the week that's in it

Bayern to win all group games @ 8/1

Top scorer: Griezman (e/w) @ 80/1 & Lautaro Martinez @ 66/1

Haaland, Kane, Lewandowski and Mbappe each to score 5+ UCL Group Stage goals @ 20/1

And two group stage accas:

Real Madrid @ 4/7 Group Winner/Inter @ 10/11 Group Winner/Manchester City @ 1/7 Group Winner/Barcelona @ 2/5 Group Winner/Sevilla @ 1/1

To Qualify From Group/Milan @ 5/4 To Qualify From Group: 20.6/1

Arsenal @ 4/7 Group Winner/Napoli @ 4/9 To Qualify From Group/Atlético Madrid @ 4/6 Group Winner/Paris St Germain @ 2/5 To Qualify From Group/

RB Leipzig @ 2/9 To Qualify From Group/Porto @ 2/7 To Qualify From Group/Manchester Utd @ 1/3 To Qualify From Group/Benfica @ 4/7 To Qualify From Group: 16.44/1

famagusta · 25-10-2023 2:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120981788#Comment_120981788

I seem to love this market for some reason and have now added HM Son,. Spurs are flying and he seems to be the main man now. more central position the last three games and on 7 goals already. the each way bet seems a certainty. Salah is fav but he has the african cup of nations in 2024....

jacool · 25-10-2023 3:32pm

Good luck with the Ollie Watkins bet - can you imagine if he had been on spotters!

Erling Haaland 9

Mohamed Salah 7

Son Heung-min 7

Jarrod Bowen 6

Alexander Isak 6

Ollie Watkins 5

Hwang Hee-chan 5

Bryan Mbeumo 5

Callum Wilson 5

Douglas Luiz 5

famagusta · 26-10-2023 2:56pm

Ya, pity he's not. Son and Watkins will give it a good go anyway. Son was 5s on monday, he's 4/1 now. i still think this is a savage bet

Loafing Oaf · 26-11-2023 3:31pm

Stuck a tenner on Hughton @16/1 for the ireland job yesterday morning. He's now in to 7/1 so fingers crossed. Some commentators are saying it's between him and Carsley for the gig but Keane & lennon are well shorter than Hughton with all the bookies...