“I was working part time and trying to get college projects finished. The thought of having a child on a meagre wage, living in an apartment I share with my mother . . . I wouldn’t be able to finish my education or look for work. What kind of start would that be for a baby?” She had heard of a Netherlands-based NGO that posts abortion pills to women all over the world; she looked it up, then filled in its medical consultation form at home, on her laptop. The site says that the pills cannot be posted to the Republic of Ireland but can be sent to Northern Ireland. Emily paid €90 by PayPal – “It’s not cheap, but it is a lot less than travelling for an abortion” – and arranged to have the drugs delivered to the Co Antrim depot of Parcel Motel, the north-south delivery service, and from there to a collection kiosk near her home.
Deleted User wrote: » No. Adding the word I added made the post make far more sense. I pointed out that you missed that opportunity, and added the word.
Deleted User wrote: » In much the same way that there are no accurate figures for other contraband imports into the state (weapons, drugs, cigarettes, alcohol) , the figures that we have for the items that have been stopped are confounded by several factors <...> confounding factors.
silverharp wrote: » it looks like there are ways of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find outhttp://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/emily-s-story-an-illegal-abortion-in-ireland-1.2376568
Absolam wrote: » I obviously wasn't quick enough editing my reply when I noticed you'd added to my point without plainly stating that you'd done so
Absolam wrote: » So in short, no, you can't give a substantive reason to think they have a significant effect on the statistics?
Absolam wrote: » Yes; it's a silly swipe. I understand that any position adopted by a male that affects a female is readily portrayed as misogyny, but that's simply lazy argumentation. The Church's stated position on contraception is based on what it sees as the gift of life from God; not on any position with regard to women. Yes, I understand that it is portrayed as misogyny because the Church hierarchy is male and the teaching affects women. That doesn't make it so though.
Deleted User wrote: » I assumed the emboldened and increased font would have drawn attention to my edit. Would a different colour have helped?
Deleted User wrote: » Sorry what? I have explained to you that your attempted use of the 'found contraband' as a proxy or indicator of the 'attempted deliveries' and (but more importantly) 'successful deliveries' is only of virtue if you can control for the confounding factors. Can you?
Deleted User wrote: » You have arbitrarily offered 'not likely' as the probability of a Customs' 'find rate' of 10%. Why?
Absolam wrote: » I'm not attributing anything at all to what has been seized by Customs though; I was asking whether there was any substantive reason to think that what hasn't been seized is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in the number of abortions. From what you said I got the impression that you think there's no way of knowing what hasn't been seized, so can't provide anything substantive to show that the pills are a statistically significant contributor. Is that wrong?
Kiwi in IE wrote: » I'll assume you are aware of the history of how women have been treated historically in Ireland in all matters regarding fertility and reproduction, so I won't bother going into it.
Kiwi in IE wrote: » You are free to defend the indefensible if you wish, but don't expect me to show any respect for the RCC's stance on reproductive choices, until a time comes where only those who are part of the club, and freely choose to follow their doctrine, are effected by it. At the moment that is not the case. When the RCC minds its own business and does not insist that it's doctrine intrude upon the lives of non Catholics, I will cease criticising.
Deleted User wrote: » The only thing that we can infer from the number of seizures is the number of seizures. I hope this helps.
Absolam wrote: » Apparently in April 2015 Customs were already intercepting parcel motel deliveries, so it seems the Irish Times were about six months late letting that particular cat out of the bag...
Cabaal wrote: » Numbers are down due greater sex education (no thanks to catholic church), better access to condoms (no thanks to catholic church) and more availability to the morning after pill etc (again, no thanks to catholic church). As sex education improves, numbers go down. If ignorance grows so do unplanned pregnancy's, this is supported by the many states in the USA who don't have proper sex ed programs in schools. (don't have sex is not a valid sex ed program!) Now the drop in numbers is very much a good thing for everyone, it puts less stress on women and couples, our health care and social system. That however does not mean that better access in Ireland to abortion services should not be granted. At the end of the day we continue to fail women in a number of different situations, this can't be ignored and if you choose to ignore this they it shows a lack of care for the health and well being of women and couples in general.
frostyjacks wrote: » What a grotesque story. I hope justice catches up with her in some shape or form. Why on earth did she get pregnant if she didn't want to have a baby?
Emily tells how, when she found out that she was “two to three weeks” pregnant last year, there was never any question but that she would terminate.
Absolam wrote: » Not really; I already said I wasn't inferring anything from the number of seizures, and it was clear you wouldn't. But that wasn't the question, so I'm puzzled as to why you'd hope it helps.
Absolam wrote: » That would suggest that the drop in abortion rates for Irish women in other countries probably isn't attributable to the sudden realisation that some people may be successful in importing abortion pills (especially since Customs seized approx. 1000 abortion pills in 2014, a number that was double the previous year), but that abortion incidence is simply dropping for the same reasons as it is dropping everywhere else.
Absolam wrote: » What do you think, is there a substantive reason to think the number of abortions by illegally imported pills is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in rates of abortions on Irish women in other jurisdictions, or would you say such a notion is speculative?
silverharp wrote: » I assume one can just hop on a train to Newry and pick it up there? it looks like it is just internet and pin driven.
Absolam wrote: » I am, though I would draw a distinction between that subject and the one you commented on; the Church's stance on contraception.
Absolam wrote: » I certainly wouldn't ask you to respect it, and it seems you certainly don't want to understand it... which means you may find I criticise your criticism from time to time I'm afraid.
Cabaal wrote: » Both you and I know that our legal system won't touch her, they are scared as hell of opening a can of worms on this subject in Ireland. Even Pro Life groups wouldn't want to see her prosecuted as they also know it'll open a big can of worms that could very likely end up pushing the issue to a vote once and for all (something they fear).
Absolam wrote: » I'd assume one could if there were a drop-off point one could collect from there, that just wasn't a way of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out mentioned in the story you linked.
Loafing Oaf wrote: » Anyway I assume Kitty is entitled to protect her source so I can't see how she would be identified...
Deleted User wrote: » Can you expand on why you think that the number of pills seized is especially relevant to the preceding sentence?Especially knowing as you do now, that the number of seized pills is an absolutely woeful metric to try to infer number of attempted deliveries, or number of successful deliveries.
Deleted User wrote: » Couldn't I equally suggest (without any further logic or support) that the doubling of the the number of pills seized over the course of a year, given that there was no distinct, visible or remarked change in detection policies, suggests that there must have been also a large increase in the number of attempts and possibly successful attempts to the country?
Deleted User wrote: » This is a poor attempt to shift the burden of proof.
Deleted User wrote: » As a way of humoring you, I would suggest you might add up the street value of all of the drugs seized at Irish borders in the past year, and then check out a wide variety of estimated worth of the drugs trade within Ireland.
Deleted User wrote: » UK statistics are probably more available if you'd prefer. I asked you this earlier, but it seems you missed it; I wonder if you think that Irish Customs' officials are orders of magnitude more effective at locating and seizing the Abortion Pills than other illicit drugs
She said it is unclear how many women are having medical abortions by buying drugs over the internet. "We also do not know how many women are really travelling to England or elsewhere and not going on record on their address." The official abortion rate for northern European countries is 18 per 1,000 women but it is not possible to say what the real picture in Ireland is. The study found that generally the abortion rate in countries where abortion is banned or restricted is on average the same as that in countries where it is available on demand.
Absolam wrote: » [...] we have no reason to think that it significantly affects the statistics on Irish women having abortions, do we?
Cabaal wrote: » Well of course, there is that. But lets speculate that her flatmate, friend, family member finds out and reports her. She wouldn't be going to jail or getting a sentence, its too much of a powder-cake.
frostyjacks wrote: » Cabaal wrote: » Well of course, there is that. But lets speculate that her flatmate, friend, family member finds out and reports her. She wouldn't be going to jail or getting a sentence, its too much of a powder-cake. I agree, she probably won't get the jail time she deserves, but as with the recent case in the north I would still expect her to be prosecuted and convicted. We can't live in a society where people pick and choose which laws they want to obey.
frostyjacks wrote: » I agree, she probably won't get the jail time she deserves, but as with the recent case in the north I would still expect her to be prosecuted and convicted. We can't live in a society where people pick and choose which laws they want to obey.
robdonn wrote: » These facts indicate that the statistics on Irish women having abortions are influenced by importation of abortion pills, and without knowing how many are making it through, make the currently available statistics simply unreliable.
robdonn wrote: » Every indication we have points to the number of Irish women having abortions is probably higher than records account for and any judgement on the significance of abortion pills influence in that number is simply guess work.
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