melissak wrote: » Add your reply here. Are you talking about these called ritual abuse fiasco in England? That was a pretty shocking version of false flag hysteria. 230 or so kids took into care based solely on confirmation bias and hysterisa on the Part of social services. The younger kids actually believed they had been abused because it was put in their heads
melissak wrote: » One eyed Jack wrote: » El_Duderino 09 wrote: » Are you making a point about all profiling being useless or do you think it's specific to child abuse? Do you think it's useless because they can't make a 100% reliable profile? Or do you think it's completely useless? Well as we're specifically talking about perpetrators of child abuse, I'm saying that profiling is useless. I know why researchers investigate cases, but profiling itself is full of confirmation bias. I personally don't believe it's actually possible to create a model that would predict with any degree of accuracy, either potential victims of child abuse, or potential perpetrators of child abuse. Add your reply here. Are you talking about these called ritual abuse fiasco in England? That was a pretty shocking version of false flag hysteria. 230 or so kids took into care based solely on confirmation bias and hysterisa on the Part of social services. The younger kids actually believed they had been abused because it was put in their heads
One eyed Jack wrote: » El_Duderino 09 wrote: » Are you making a point about all profiling being useless or do you think it's specific to child abuse? Do you think it's useless because they can't make a 100% reliable profile? Or do you think it's completely useless? Well as we're specifically talking about perpetrators of child abuse, I'm saying that profiling is useless. I know why researchers investigate cases, but profiling itself is full of confirmation bias. I personally don't believe it's actually possible to create a model that would predict with any degree of accuracy, either potential victims of child abuse, or potential perpetrators of child abuse.
El_Duderino 09 wrote: » Are you making a point about all profiling being useless or do you think it's specific to child abuse? Do you think it's useless because they can't make a 100% reliable profile? Or do you think it's completely useless?
LexieOnRale wrote: » It disgusts me to think of 7 little kids absolutely traumatised and frightened in their own home with strange drunks walking in and out like it was some sort of half way house, with nobody to give them a hug and a kiss and make them feel loved and like none of what was happening was their fault. How are they ever going to be okay after that? She's ruined their lives. There is no coming back from that.
KERSPLAT! wrote: Are you two still at it!?
bubblypop wrote: » Forty seven, I do agree with you to an extent. There is a big problem in this country because there is a huge turnover of social workers. We have mandatory reporting of child protection incidents, & it should work, because it should follow the family around. This is relatively recent, but it does seem to work well to an extent. Social workers have such a hard job, they all start with great intentions, they all want to help. Then they start, & their workload is horrendously large. Impossible I would think, they can't physically do everything they are supposed to. Which ends up with social workers becoming burnt out, dissolutioned & trying to ' cover their own ass' and eventually leaving, in a lot of cases. I wouldn't be a social worker for any money. They are over stretched, under resourced & constantly looking over their shoulder trying to ' cover their own ass' The country needs to put money into these services. We need to at least double the social workers in this country. Maybe then, any referrals they receive, they might have time to investigate cases correctly. And anything we can learn about these types of cases, can only assist going forward.
bubblypop wrote: » El duderino, I think jack or whatever the name is, just likes to argue with anyone they can. No one who thinks normally could think that studying past abuse cases could in no way assist in future child protection. Obviously anyone with a sane understanding brain realises than any little help is advantageous in child protection. I wouldn't bother trying to educate jack anymore.
One eyed Jack wrote: They are risk factors, in which case either abuse is taking place, or it isn't. What I'm trying to get across is that the profiles are useless in terms of identifying potential victims, or potential perpetrators, because there is no way that it can actually be predicted whether someone will become a victim, and there's no way of knowing whether someone will become an abuser. That's what I mean when I talk about profiling being useless in terms of identifying other people's future potential as either a victim, or a perpetrator. Any statistics we can gather is based upon known data, from which we can formulate probabilities, and as you say identify known potential risk factors. That's not prediction, it's correlation.
One eyed Jack wrote: Sure, I do understand that, but the point I'm trying to make is that in those cases, the risks have already been identified. The point I'm making is that often, we miss signs because we don't know what we haven't any knowledge of. How can we?
One eyed Jack wrote: I get how it works, I do. It's based upon assessment of known risk factors which have been determined by correlations drawn from previous cases. That's why it's always changing and never ending, and trying to draw profiles from it, while I can understand why people say it's worth trying and it's useful and it's educating people and all the rest of it, it still can not predict with any degree of accuracy those people who have not already been identified as being at risk of abuse/abusing, and it certainly has no accuracy in predicting potential victims/abusers. If it had, detection rates would be a lot higher than they are, and intervention would happen much sooner. The fact is that by using profiling/stereotyping, you're going to miss out on signs that don't already fit what is usually a very specific profile.
One eyed Jack wrote: I get why people are hesitant, but what I'm saying is that because of stereotyping - cases all too often go undetected, or aren't taken seriously enough, and all too often go unreported, because the persons involved don't fit the stereotypical profile. They're able to hide it purposely, so that it goes undetected! There's no model, no amount of education, no amount of training, can account for that level of deception. That's who you're dependent upon to inform your research. A person so skilled at deception and manipulation that they can deceive professionals with experience, and control children to the point where they may never reveal their abuse.
One eyed Jack wrote: I'm afraid El_Duderino you give me far too much credit
El_Duderino 09 wrote: » Ok instead of putting words in your mouth I'll ask you directly whay you think about those factors I mentioned -the 2 from this specific case and the other more general ones. What say you? Are they in fact risk factors?
Of course they can. They are used every day to protect children. There's no way you don't understand that. We don't wait until we see a child being abused. We act on risk factors.
Yes it's stereotyping/profiling/heuristics based on fact. It's a fact that children of drug addicts are more likely to experience abuse than children of non drug addicts- all other factors being equal. Therefore drug addicted parents represent an elevated risk for children. That's prospective. How are you not getting this? It's really simple. All the other factors I mentioned in the last post also represent elevated risk of abuse.
Yes of course. I saw it happen with my own mother in her school. She had suspicions based on the risks she observed. But you can't make a claim unless it can me substanciated or else it's an unsubstantiated claim of abuse against a parent. That can cost you your job, your career, can cost an innocent parent their child and their reputation and could be detrimental to the child. That's one reason why people hesitate. My mother was right in that instance but she couldn't act until she could substanciate a claim that the child was at serious risk.
If you were a teacher, would you keep an honest eye out for risk factors like a responsible adult? (No need to have a sh1t fit at every bruise) I suspect you would because the opinion you're putting forward is stupid (zero predictive power of profiles) but I don't think you're stupid. Tell me you would at least follow the guidelines if you were in loco parentis. The profiles are imperfect at predicting abuse, not useless.
One eyed Jack wrote: No, I would say you were trying to put words in my mouth regarding things I never said. What I said was that I personally think profiling specifically relating to child abuse cases is unreliable, and I personally don't believe it is possible to come up with a model that would enable us to predict with any degree of accuracy potential victims of child abuse, or potential perpetrators of child abuse.
One eyed Jack wrote: Again, that's not actually what I said ay all. I said they cannot be used to predict with any degree of accuracy potential victims, or potential abusers.
One eyed Jack wrote: Profiling IMO, is completely useless in predicting potential victims or abusers, is what I said. I said the above because I recognise that not everyone is going to agree with me that profiling serves no purpose in prediction, because it's based upon retrospective analysis and identifying common behaviours, attitudes and circumstances. It's basically stereotyping by another name. Anything which falls outside that stereotype is never flagged, because it's never identified in order to be flagged in the first place. In this particular case, you're applying flags retrospectively to fit the model, so therefore the model must be justified.
One eyed Jack wrote: Does it not make you wonder at all how anyone involved in the case or anyone who had any interaction with the family involved missed all the identifiers that you're now able to apply retrospectively?
El_Duderino 09 wrote: » I think you have a very confused idea of what we're talking about. I bet if I told you some of the risk factors like: drug addicted patents and having strange men in the house (examples from this case), child changing behaviour abruptly such as becoming withdrawn or lashing out, getting mysterious bruises in particular parts of the body or showing inappropriate sexualised behaviour or knowledge you would say 'sure those are obvious' or 'those are meaningless'. In either case you would show your misunderstanding of what we're talking about. Those risk factors or 'red flags' are basic elements in a risk profile.
I think you're right on this point. You're at odds with One Eyed Jack here as they don't believe risk profiles or red flags can be used with any degree of accuracy.
You're back on the fence here by saying some families will not for the profile. I thought here was no usable profile according to you. That's why I asked you whether you think profiling is completely useless or just not 100% accurate. Of course profiles are useful, to varying degrees and in all walks of life. Do you really think they have no accuracy in this case?
One eyed Jack wrote: Well as we're specifically talking about perpetrators of child abuse, I'm saying that profiling is useless. I know why researchers investigate cases, but profiling itself is full of confirmation bias. I personally don't believe it's actually possible to create a model that would predict with any degree of accuracy, either potential victims of child abuse, or potential perpetrators of child abuse.
eviltwin wrote: You'd be surprised how many abusers have red flags. It probably won't stop that abuse happening but it might help target what families need support or intervention. It's hard to quantify, if I have potential to abuse my children but I'm supported by the system and don't abuse them how do we know it's worked? But it's worth trying.
One eyed Jack wrote: I understand the whole idea of profiling and why it's done to identify families that need support, but plenty of families that don't appear to be in need of support don't get red flagged because they don't fit the profile. That's where the whole idea of nobody knowing what goes on behind closed doors, or someone didn't fit 'the profile' comes in. Because it simply doesn't work.
eviltwin wrote: » You'd be surprised how many abusers have red flags. It probably won't stop that abuse happening but it might help target what families need support or intervention. It's hard to quantify, if I have potential to abuse my children but I'm supported by the system and don't abuse them how do we know it's worked? But it's worth trying.
One eyed Jack wrote: » I'm saying that it's pointless trying to ascertain why the mother in this case did what she did, because you're unlikely ever to ascertain their motivation. Perpetrators don't make for very reliable sources of information that could help identify the motivations of other perpetrators.
bubblypop wrote: » You are dead right. Feck them all, throw away the keys & sit & wait until abuse and neglect occurs then repeat.
One eyed Jack wrote: » Well as we're specifically talking about perpetrators of child abuse, I'm saying that profiling is useless. I know why researchers investigate cases, but profiling itself is full of confirmation bias. I personally don't believe it's actually possible to create a model that would predict with any degree of accuracy, either potential victims of child abuse, or potential perpetrators of child abuse.
One eyed Jack wrote: The methodology of profiling itself is flawed, because as El Durino points out - it is based on retrospective analysis of past experiences. It doesn't allow for anything which hasn't been experienced before that point.
KERSPLAT! wrote: » Wouldn't even be able to read that
bubblypop wrote: » I assume you don't have experience based on what you are posting, because if you did you would understand that it is possible to flag certain behaviours.
I'm not sure why you think education for people working with children & their parents would result in mass hysteria! Education would clearly result in the opposite.
I'm certainly not going around society looking at everyone as potential abusers, but I would hope that given education & past experiences I would be able to flag any questionable behaviour, that would warrant further investigation.
Are you suggesting that we shouldn't examine cases like this to ascertain all factors?
One eyed Jack wrote: » I wouldn't take your assumption as an insult at all, because it demonstrates my point perfectly - based upon your preconceptions, you assume I don't have a lot of experience in child protection issues. I simply think it's wrong to say that everyone are potential child abusers, because then you'll start seeing signs that aren't there, assuming the worst of innocent people, and missing the signs that someone is an actual abuser, which can only be determined on an individual basis, without your judgement being informed by preconceptions and whether or not an individual fits a profile that is based on other people's past behaviour. That's how society has gotten to a point where we have mass hysteria based upon stereotypes, yet we miss the stuff that happens under our own noses.
bubblypop wrote: » I'm going to guess that you dont have a lot of experience in child protection issues, I don't mean that to sound insulting. Everyone are potential abusers, if that's the way you want to put it. Gathering information on child abuse cases does indeed help us to understand why and how this abuse can happen, which in turn helps identify potential abusers.
LexieOnRale wrote: Have you been a victim of child abuse? During Councelling to get over something someone else did to you, something you had absolutely no control over, one of the steps is dealing with how it made you feel. You don't rationalise their behaviour, you don't make excuses, it doesn't matter what they did. It's the effects of their behaviour that's imprinted on someone else, some defenceless child. It doesn't matter WHY they did it. The end effect is the same whether someone did it because they were mentally ill and off their meds or because they're pure evil.
LexieOnRale wrote: Do you think that all parents who abuse their kids fit the same profile? You think the warning signs and behaviours are all the same? Nobody knows what's going on behind closed doors. To the outside world they may be the most loving parents. It's not just the raging alcoholics that abuse their children.
One eyed Jack wrote: I don't see how you got from being made aware of certain things to look out for, to that actually being useful, unless someone actually does something about what they have observed.
One eyed Jack wrote: Yes, educating people on what to look out for in children, and what to do when they suspect a child is being abused. El D's point seems to be more focused on profiling abusers after the fact which gives us nothing by way of predicting or preventing the future behaviour of someone who hasn't come to the attention of researchers.
One eyed Jack wrote: » I'm trying to figure out what you mean by 'potential abusers', because that implies that everyone falls into the category of a potential abuser. Anyone could be a potential abuser, and my point is that profiling simply does not work, because it is based upon preconceptions and correlations. That's how abusers are able to avoid detection - because they don't fit preconceived ideas based upon correlations. Therefore, gathering data on abusers after the fact tells us nothing about the potential for someone else to commit abuse.
bubblypop wrote: » What? Teaching people what to look for in potential abusers, is also important.