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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

scudzilla

I know there's a thread for this over in the gambling forum but hoping it's ok to keep this in here as not many will venture over there.

Just found, in my eyes anyway, a great double.

BJ Penn to beat Fitch at 5/4 and Jorge Rivera to beat Bisping at 5/2

A €10 stake will return €78.25. Well worth a punt as both of these guys are well more than capable of winning.

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TimRiggins

A Shaved Duck? wrote: »

I personally think he got tagged by a few of diaz's combos and he couldnt take the power, he visibly backed off after the exchanges starting becoming more even. Same result this time for me..diaz is to big and can take conors best shots and keep coming with cardio for days. On the ground its not even close.

Diaz doesn't really throw with power. He throws large amounts of shots at 50-60%.

Mellor

Petermc83 wrote: »

What price is Punk ? (not that i think he will win, just curious)

Best price is 10/3 with Coral
Generally around 11/4

A Shaved Duck?

TimRiggins wrote: »

Diaz doesn't really throw with power. He throws large amounts of shots at 50-60%.

The fight stats show that alright with Diaz landing 77 of 152 but lets remember this is from a man fighting 25 lbs above the guys conor is normally in with it had to make a difference.

Hope its a good fight myself and who knows conor could win but i dont understand how it will be different this time.. diaz fights the same way every time and does mcregor take it to the ground or stand and trade like the first fight?.

rogieop

A Shaved Duck? wrote: »

I personally think he got tagged by a few of diaz's combos and he couldnt take the power, he visibly backed off after the exchanges starting becoming more even. Same result this time for me..diaz is to big and can take conors best shots and keep coming with cardio for days. On the ground its not even close.

A Shaved Duck? wrote: »

The fight stats show that alright with Diaz landing 77 of 152 but lets remember this is from a man fighting 25 lbs above the guys conor is normally in with it had to make a difference.

Hope its a good fight myself and who knows conor could win but i dont understand how it will be different this time.. diaz fights the same way every time and does mcregor take it to the ground or stand and trade like the first fight?.

Yeah i fully agree he took the shots and couldnt handle them. He couldnt keep his hands up, he threw far too many big shots in round 1. No question about it, he was out on his feet when he shot for that takedown imo.. the way he wins this next fight is to fight smart.

He beat Nate up bad in the first round last time, he just needs to do that consistently and win rounds this time. Get in get his shots off and move, it might hurt his ego to have to fight like that but so be it. come the 3rd/4th round if he has been landing them shots consistently at 60/70% power then he can go for broke and try take him out.

I know its hindsight but going in there against nate, at that weight, knowing nate can walk through punches and trying to take him out in the first round was suicidal.

He needs to get a good game plan this time and stick to it. Its going to be close, and as has been said, he hasnt got a hope on the floor. I think he could defend for a while off his back but he certainly isnt going to win from his back or even on top..

Swashbuckler

So now we have three McGregor threads. Great!

rogieop

Swashbuckler wrote: »

So now we have three McGregor threads. Great!

Hmm, discussion about whether a fighter can win a fight at decent odds in a thread about mma gambling.

who'd have thunk it....

mailburner

Couldn't resist the evens on big ben either, man has been unbeatable lately
wee bet on round 2 sub at 14s also
pp

Paully D

Ben Rothwell to beat Junior dos Santos (11/10, Bet365)

Ben Rothwell to win via submission (5/1, Hills)

callaway92

Gonzaga by Sub 9/2

He isn't as deteriorated as people think. Losses to solid fighters recently (Cro Cop on juice). If he can avoid the power of Derrick Lewis and get him down he should sub him.

9/2 is good I think.

Wrongway1985

callaway92 wrote: »

Gonzaga by Sub 9/2

He isn't as deteriorated as people think. Losses to solid fighters recently (Cro Cop on juice). If he can avoid the power of Derrick Lewis and get him down he should sub him.

9/2 is good I think.

His win last time out stunk the place out almost bored me to sleep. He got creamed by Matt Mitrione who isn't fighting with the promotion any more.

Funnily enough his last most notable win is over Big Ben which was also the last time he won by sub, Lewis hasn't been subbed in his career. Good bout could go either way ends on the feet for me though.

callaway92

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

His win last time out stunk the place out almost bored me to sleep. He got creamed by Matt Mitrione who isn't fighting with the promotion any more.

Funnily enough his last most notable win is over Big Ben which was also the last time he won by sub, Lewis hasn't been subbed in his career. Good bout could go either way ends on the feet for me though.

Ya the fight was boring but he won.

Mitrione left on his own terms, it's not like he was released.

Wrongway1985

callaway92 wrote: »

Ya the fight was boring but he won.

Mitrione left on his own terms, it's not like he was released.

One would imagine his terms were to remain in the UFC on a favourable contract. He's 37 he needs to do what's the best option as regards earning potential and fair play to him but let's be honest the UFC didn't concern themselves with re-signing him and didn't entertain matching Bellator offer for a fighter who they put on fight nights for his last 4 or 5 fights.

mailburner

lewis round one 2s is tempting me but gonzaga prob the best he's faced saying that, gonzaga has been put away by most lads with big power and lewis certainly has that and will put gonzaga away if he connects first

think theres a possiblility of a gonzaga ko at 4s also if he lets his hands go and doesnt try to play it safe (who could blame him if he did though :pac:

Mellor

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

Lewis hasn't been subbed in his career. Good bout could go either way ends on the feet for me though.

I think Lewis hasn't been subbed due to the fights his been in, rather than any sort of sub defence.

But agree it'll be contested on the feet. There's value in Rd2 KO finish (from either) at 5.0 ($18)

In the main event I went with over 1.5 rounds @1.66 ($50). I was also tempted by 4th,5th or decision.
Over 2.5 would interest me if available

Wrongway1985

True that Mellor his last opponent had a number of sub wins thats the closest it got. Searching there I notice Pesta who Lewis beat at 192 has a win over the guy who bored the face off me in his dec loss vs Gonzaga. This talk has ignited me to have a punt on this on most likely

ASOT

Went with Big Ben (11/10), Lewis by KO, TKO or Sub (5/6) & Taisumov (2/7) 50e Treble 250e back.

And the above with Dortmund, Napoli, Leicester & Villareal. 10e Accumulator 390e back.

Good luck lads!

Devastator

20/1 5 timer - Pejic, Martins, Cummings, Lewis & over 1.5rds JDS/Rothwell

Going by my recent MMA(& general) betting history you'd be aswell betting on the opposite to all these :pac:

ASOT

ASOT wrote: »

Went with Big Ben (11/10), Lewis by KO, TKO or Sub (5/6) & Taisumov (2/7) 50e Treble 250e back.

And the above with Dortmund, Napoli, Leicester & Villareal. 10e Accumulator 390e back.

Good luck lads!

Cashed out for stake back on the accumulator. Rebet with Big Ben, Lewis, Blachowicz, Entwistle by a Finish, Porto, Villareal & Speith in the masters. 10 on 600 back.

Mr. Manager

Small double on Lewis and Big Ben by KO on Paddies

€25 with the hopes to return €178

Mr. Manager

And a stupid accumulator on all the remaining favourites

Wrongway1985

Eventually went with

Moroz
Lewis
Rothwell
Johnson

Close to just over 10/1 (Lads)

Devastator

Devastator wrote: »

20/1 5 timer - Pejic, Martins, Cummings, Lewis & over 1.5rds JDS/Rothwell

Going by my recent MMA(& general) betting history you'd be aswell betting on the opposite to all these :pac:

Chasing

Lewis KO & over 1.5rds JDS/Rothwell just over 2/1

Whelo79

Dalby
Blachowizc
Rothwell

€10 returns just short of €50.

ASOT

Also Chasing

ASOT

ASOT wrote: »

Also Chasing

Offering me 150 for the top, 60 for the bottom... Do I trust big Ben.

Mr. Manager

Cash out the bottom one if you're concerned

Devastator

ASOT wrote: »

Offering me 150 for the top, 60 for the bottom... Do I trust big Ben.

What did you do?

Devastator wrote: »

Chasing

Lewis KO & over 1.5rds JDS/Rothwell just over 2/1

Caught!

After a weekend of multiple football, boxing & mma & grand national bets I'm about £3 up :pac: The damage done to my heart cost a lot more than that £3 too

dulux99

Tecia Torres is a crazy 15/8 outsider against Rose N this weekend. This will mark the third time bookies have got it extremely wrong in rose namajunas fights IMO, she was favourite vs Esparza in the title fight (lunacy), outsider vs PVZ, and now she's big favourite vs Torres. Torres even has a win over rose previously. Granted rose will have improved a lot since then but I think this will be three namajunas fights in a row where bookies get it wrong, and hopefully I put them to the sword again!!

mailburner

+1 for torres, crazy value that
rose is overrated

am also tempted by beth at 6/4

dulux99

mailburner wrote: »

+1 for torres, crazy value that
rose is overrated

am also tempted by beth at 6/4

Over rated vs Esparza+Torres and quite under rated vs PVZ. I find this alot with the bookies, they've get to get a great handle on women's mma I feel.