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TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

Trade idea's, technical, fundamentals and anything trade related.

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RobertKK

For ever odd wrote: »

100 ema is 21.75 on daily, and would be roughly half of the gap down on jan 15(?). Short term target would be around that area for me.

EDIT; target hit, 20% rise today. Nice one Robert!

Thanks. and you showed how good you are. Closed at $21.71, which is around where you said.
The few on stocktwits who said they were shorting well below that could have done with your advice...

newacc2015

Starwood Property Trust could be a good buy. They have an almost 10% dividend. They have also brought 2 massive portfolios of Irish property in the last 2 years. I imagine holding this stock for a few years even without the 10% dividend will pay off. A ton of pension funds have brought into them in the last year. It is a vulture fund, that you actually benefit from

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Directors-and-dealings?s=STWD:NYQ

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2016/03/21/starwood-property-trust-named-top-dividend-stock-with-insider-buying-and-10-08-yield-stwd/#2adfd32632e0

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

Thanks. and you showed how good you are. Closed at $21.71, which is around where you said.
The few on stocktwits who said they were shorting well below that could have done with your advice...

Hmmm, there are guys who bought this at €11, the likes of yourself that are in at €16,and the likes of myself who made a fast buck today at €18ish...And then there is the guys to come.
This has the perfect hallmarks of a pump and dump (great for you if it is) I can just imagine what's been said, 100% since Jan, 20% today, this is going to rocket... €100+ etc etc.
Tomorrow should tell a tale, whether today was the start of it, or whether today was all the early birds unloading /profit taking.
Just an example of who's knocking around.

For ever odd

Markets still scratching the heads from Thursdays dovish FED, and then Lacker and Williams come out and stir it up with hawkish comments. Fcuked if I know whats going on.

RobertKK

For ever odd wrote: »

Hmmm, there are guys who bought this at €11, the likes of yourself that are in at €16,and the likes of myself who made a fast buck today at €18ish...And then there is the guys to come.
This has the perfect hallmarks of a pump and dump (great for you if it is) I can just imagine what's been said, 100% since Jan, 20% today, this is going to rocket... €100+ etc etc.
Tomorrow should tell a tale, whether today was the start of it, or whether today was all the early birds unloading /profit taking.
Just an example of who's knocking around.

That short term call you made two days ago was really spot on.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

That short term call you made two days ago was really spot on.

I wouldn't read to much into it, but sometimes it nice to be a jammy sod!!

https://youtu.be/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBFKdjaHiQ

For ever odd

Yelled speaking this evening and NFP on Friday.

Markets have been subdued the last week or so and we are coming to quarter end. I think traders will be rejuvenated after the easter break and are planning the next two weeks around the events mentioned above. Sideline traders amongst other traders will be itching to get involved and we might see direction decided. As it stands there are plenty in both the bull and bear camps.

Spikes and volatility are on the cards.

ixus

Not to forget end of Quarter.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

Not to forget end of Quarter.

I did mention it.

What's your thoughts on European equities?

I am watching the eurstoxx 50, it closed below 3000 last month and if we get a monthly close below that level again, it would indicate to me that all is not good. Especially after the ECB pumping more money into the system.

ixus

Apols, missed that.

I initially thought ECB would be a massive boost for equities. However, banking sector is back below pre~ecb levels. This is not a positive indicator imho.

[Deleted User]

Hugo Boss AG €54.69, dust has settled after notification of 2016 profits being lower than expected in February and subsequently the CEO stepping down a week later.

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016, 6.6% ish.

Decent stock imo for the short term (1 to 3 years)

For ever odd

Augeo wrote: »

Hugo Boss AG €54.69, dust has settled after notification of 2016 profits being lower than expected in February and subsequently the CEO stepping down a week later.

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016, 6.6% ish.

Decent stock imo for the short term (1 to 3 years)

http://group.hugoboss.com/en/investor-relations/faq/

I always used to have a few Hugo items in the wardrobe, until a few years ago. The last two items I bought, weren't worth wearing after the first wash. Whether they sacrificed quality for quantity ( expansion of shops and business ) I don't know, but I do know I will not be buying any more of their products. Shame really as they were really good.

[Deleted User]

I like their stuff, have a few polo shirts for work that wash well. Also have a few hundred € jacket but it's too warm most of the time (duck down).

That aside I reckon the shares are good buy at the moment, the brand is no doubt less exclusive than it was years ago

For ever odd

Alot of luxury brands have issued profit warnings for 2016, it's not just Hugo Boss, the sector is rattled.
The old adage 'Sell the first profit warning, Buy the third' springs to mind.

If the opportunity arose I would consider buying Hugo Boss at €41 and if lucky €32 for a long term hold (20+ years).

As of now, it is rising from its feb low, with decreasing volume.

[Deleted User]

For ever odd wrote: »

Alot of luxury brands have issued profit warnings for 2016, it's not just Hugo Boss, the sector is rattled.
The old adage 'Sell the first profit warning, Buy the third' springs to mind.

If the opportunity arose I would consider buying Hugo Boss at €41 and if lucky €32 for a long term hold (20+ years).

As of now, it is rising from its feb low, with decreasing volume.

Can't really see the price getting down to €41............ regarding the old adage

#1 Nov 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/26/china-slowdown-remy-cointreau-hugo-boss-profit-warning
#2 Nov 2014 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/04/hugo-boss-profit-warning
#3 Feb 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-24/hugo-boss-clothing-focus-hurts-as-china-and-us-retrench

RobertKK

Bought GNCA at $5.84 at 7.50pm, it closed at $7.74 at 9pm, they rose strongly after Cowen gave them a price target of $40 after results of a trial on herpes came out earlier in the day.

Adam Feuerstein then gave his opinion on the biotech stock's trial results which caused the stock to slump to below $6.60 in after hours trading after it has risen to over $8.30 before his tweets.
Then it rebounded to it's current price in AH at $7.54. Not sure if I should have sold earlier, but tomorrow should be interesting either way.
Whoever thought herpes could be such fun :pac:

Sabre Man

TSLA is racing ahead after long queues all over the world for Model 3 reservations.

[Deleted User]

Tesla is a strange one imo, short term the share price will more than likely approach previous high of $280 but longterm they need to sell shed loads of cars which they will struggle to do given that they struggle to make launch dates.

Anyone who bought in Feb just gone is after getting a serious return. Really shows how mad the stock market can be, $240 01Jan, $144 10Feb & $240 today.

Sabre Man

I don't think they will have a problem selling the cars. Also, Model 3 is simpler than Model X, where they had big issues with the falcon wing doors.

People were queuing up all over the world to put a deposit on a car that won't be available for another 18 months or so. 137k deposits taken by the end of the presentation. That has never happened with other cars.

[Deleted User]

Sabre Man wrote: »

I don't think they will have a problem selling the cars. ..........

You have to get them made before you can sell them

High volume manufacturing is new to Tesla compared to current volumes.

Also, I'd be personally very reluctant to buy a share at $240 when it was $144 6/7 weeks ago

Sabre Man

Everything was down 6-7 weeks ago. TLSA was a very good buy at 144. I bought at 190 a few weeks ago and again today at 235.

High volume manufacturing might pose some initial challenges but I am confident Elon can pull it off. My next car will probably be a Tesla.

Already past 180k reservations:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-musk-model-3-orders-surpassed-115-000-within-24-hours-1459483890?mod=yahoo_hs

RobertKK

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought GNCA at $5.84 at 7.50pm, it closed at $7.74 at 9pm, they rose strongly after Cowen gave them a price target of $40 after results of a trial on herpes came out earlier in the day.

Adam Feuerstein then gave his opinion on the biotech stock's trial results which caused the stock to slump to below $6.60 in after hours trading after it has risen to over $8.30 before his tweets.
Then it rebounded to it's current price in AH at $7.54. Not sure if I should have sold earlier, but tomorrow should be interesting either way.
Whoever thought herpes could be such fun :pac:

I got a bit greedy,wanted to see if it would break the resistance point of $7.74, it got there, then got a visitor at the wrong time, was back to trade and sell and it was at $6.88, but over around a dollar profit per share was alright for 24 hours, but some nice profit was left behind, should have just set a sell at $7.70, but one learns from mistakes.
Profit is profit at the end of the day.

RobertKK

I like Tesla and I do think Elon Musk is the most innovative person in business for the last number of years, but with Tesla I am wary of it's valuation, one can argue it is a technology company or an auto company.
If it is an auto company then way overvalued, if technology company then I don't know.

For ever odd

In game theory, the Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy.

If you replace Janet and Mario in the prisoners dilemma model, it should help paint a clearer picture.
Alas it way above my pay station, but if any of the more economic savy want to have a crack at it, be my guest.

spaceman902

I have a nice little trade going with SYN at the minute, bought in at 1.92, currently trading at 2.50. It's just broken above the 200 day MA, and the price has just passed an inverse head and shoulders on the 1 day chart. I have been reading that an exit at bout 2.66 would be wise with this formation, and I think I'll take some profits when this happens. Any chartists on the thread that might have an opinion?

Thanks in advance!

For ever odd

spaceman902 wrote: »

I have a nice little trade going with SYN at the minute, bought in at 1.92, currently trading at 2.50. It's just broken above the 200 day MA, and the price has just passed an inverse head and shoulders on the 1 day chart. I have been reading that an exit at bout 2.66 would be wise with this formation, and I think I'll take some profits when this happens. Any chartists on the thread that might have an opinion?

Thanks in advance!

http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/inverted-head-and-shoulders-pattern.html

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Bought the DAX at 9500, S&P 1900 holding for now.
Just taking on the level, also divergence on daily chart.

I was reading back through the thread and saw this post from Feb 2, and remember taking it on because of large round numbers.
Now, this is just an observation from that point of time, using the close of that day and Fridays close (rounded %)

S&P up 9%
DOW up 10%
FTSE up 4.6%
STOXX 50 up 1.2%
DAX up 3.5%

With the Fed on hold and brexit election coming, I am of the opinion that US will continue to outperform Europe for the next quarter.

Could be way off the mark, but that's what I'm going with!

RobertKK

Biotech on fire again after it had been as popular as zika virus for several months now.
Yesterday biotech ETFs IBB up 6% and XBI up 7%.
Some massive gains for individual biotech stocks

Still holding my SRPT shares but plan on selling most before 23rd April given a binary event looms.
Up 19% yesterday as it broke through the 21.70s resistance area to close at $23.30.
Technically the charts shows the next resistance level is at $36, here's hoping the run continues and a gap fill.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

Biotech on fire again after it had been as popular as zika virus for several months now.
Yesterday biotech ETFs IBB up 6% and XBI up 7%.
Some massive gains for individual biotech stocks

Still holding my SRPT shares but plan on selling most before 23rd April given a binary event looms.
Up 19% yesterday as it broke through the 21.70s resistance area to close at $23.30.
Technically the charts shows the next resistance level is at $36, here's hoping the run continues and a gap fill.

SRPT got a brokers revised recommendion of $ 60 yesterday, and got a little pump on cnbc, price and volume took off as soon as.

If the raised price target is anything like teslas' upgrade to $280, then today should be interesting.

For ever odd

All markets are prone to bubbles, where investors get overenthusiastic about a particular asset. The tricky bit is spotting them before they pop.

Analysts at UBS have found a way to crunch the numbers to do just that.

At the start of the year they said US health stocks looked expensive and shares in global energy firms were cheap – and they were right.

The energy sector no longer stands out as a crowded sell in the US and developed Europe, but remains a crowded sell for Asia ex-Japan. The over-bought pressure in the US and Asia ex-Japan Healthcare sector has also released to a certain extent, albeit for the US all three indicators are still relatively high compared with historical levels.

This time around the expensive shares are in the European tech industry, which are soaring after recommendations to buy from investment banks. Meanwhile, stocks in Asian banks look cheap, according to UBS:

New sectors that stand out European IT emerged as the crowded-bought sector, driven mainly by the Semiconductor names. In Asia ex-Japan, the Financials sector continues to deteriorate, reflecting ongoing concerns around Asia’s credit cycle.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ubs-map-of-all-the-bubbles-in-the-stock-market-2016-4

Time to start looking into European IT and semi- conductors companies for shorting. Graphics in link.