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2016 share picks

Prezatch

An annual thread that is always interesting... my picks are:

NFLX Netflix 109.96
RYA Ryanair 14.87
VOW3 Volkswagen 119.4
BET Betfair 38.69

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Green Mile

It seems a lot of companies out there issue profit statements quarterly. Is it wise to buy shares in companies who are expected to make strong profits right before the company issues their profits and then sell the shares right before or just after they publicise the profits? Would that theory see a return on the investment?

Sorry for that possible rookie question.

I bought into Internet Gold Golden Lines Ltd under this assumption as they are expected to release profit statements 22nd of March ’16 and the company has had media attention around its share price recently.

newacc2015

Green Mile wrote: »

It seems a lot of companies out there issue profit statements quarterly. Is it wise to buy shares in companies who are expected to make strong profits right before the company issues their profits and then sell the shares right before or just after they publicise the profits? Would that theory see a return on the investment?

Sorry for that possible rookie question.

I bought into Internet Gold Golden Lines Ltd under this assumption as they are expected to release profit statements 22nd of March ’16 and the company has had media attention around its share price recently.

Generally the market predicts their quarterly earnings, so there is rarely a surprise when sales are up 5%. As analysts predicted 5% and the shares adjusted accordingly.

The only time you would make decent return on short term news is a merger or takeover. But you would need knowledge that is insider tradering. Another one is predicting if devidends will increase. This happened with Wendys a while back

Cute Hoor

Green Mile wrote: »

It seems a lot of companies out there issue profit statements quarterly. Is it wise to buy shares in companies who are expected to make strong profits right before the company issues their profits and then sell the shares right before or just after they publicise the profits? Would that theory see a return on the investment?

Sorry for that possible rookie question.

I bought into Internet Gold Golden Lines Ltd under this assumption as they are expected to release profit statements 22nd of March ’16 and the company has had media attention around its share price recently.

Buy the rumour, sell the news

http://www.davemanuel.com/investor-dictionary/buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news/

lucky john

Tesla has rewarded those that held or were brave enough to call the bottom. They have been on a big recovery curve for the last few weeks and are back almost to where they were at the start of the year. If the Model3 unveiling goes well in a couple of weeks it could still be a nice stock to own for the rest of the year.

crooked_feet

lucky john wrote: »

Tesla has rewarded those that held or were brave enough to call the bottom. They have been on a big recovery curve for the last few weeks and are back almost to where they were at the start of the year. If the Model3 unveiling goes well in a couple of weeks it could still be a nice stock to own for the rest of the year.

tesla is sort of a cult stock , it can miss earnings by a mile and still soar as happened last quarter , its more of a tech company than an auto one which is just as well as nearly all auto stocks are doing very poorly right now and no higher than where they were three years ago or more

i suspect a lot of the big institutions are betting big on the future technology which tesla may bring to motoring

redman

Deleted User wrote: »

Still with Pilbara mineral PLS here, finished at AUD 0.36 today. It has risen 33% in 3 weeks. Big Lithium finds in WA, this share will break AUD 0.50 before the end of February

Thanks Keeffo, this has proved a beauty so far. Good Call!

Prezatch

lucky john wrote: »

Tesla has rewarded those that held or were brave enough to call the bottom. They have been on a big recovery curve for the last few weeks and are back almost to where they were at the start of the year. If the Model3 unveiling goes well in a couple of weeks it could still be a nice stock to own for the rest of the year.

Pre-market they're up over 8% given the unveiling yesterday. Looks like a pretty sweet car really! Exciting stock to own

lucky john

JoeyD wrote: »

Pre-market they're up over 8% given the unveiling yesterday. Looks like a pretty sweet car really! Exciting stock to own

A staggering 198,000 pre orders in one day for a car 2 years away from manufacture. Tesla delivered just over 50,000 cars last year. so question is do they just ramp as planned or do the go all out to deliver early and turn all the $1000 deposits into $35000 (and most likely far more than that) sales. That's a 7billion carrot that I doubt Musk will be able to resist aiming for at the earliest opportunity. The pressure will be on the giggafactory construction guys to get those batteries rolling out asap.

I'll definitely be hanging in here just to see where Musk takes this company over the next 5 years.

[Deleted User]

lucky john wrote: »

A staggering 198,000 pre orders in one day for a car 2 years away from manufacture. ........7billion carrot ........

The way I look at this is that in two/three years Tesla need sales in excess of $7B to deliver on the $240 share price.

I think in 4/5 years time Tesla shares will be under $100.

lucky john

Augeo wrote: »

The way I look at this is that in two/three years Tesla need sales in excess of $7B to deliver on the $240 share price.

I think in 4/5 years time Tesla shares will be under $100.

you might be missing the most important point of the day. yesterday the question was ...is there a mass market for a tesla (or any other) EC? That question has now been answered beyond any doubt. Tomorrows question is ...How big is the actual market? $7B could just be the start. From where we are today the share price has as much chance as been $500 as $100 in 5 years time. It just a matter of opinion.

Tesla is split between bulls and bears. For the next few years my money is on Musk to deliver.

[Deleted User]

lucky john wrote: »

you might be missing the most important point of the day. yesterday the question was ...is there a mass market for a tesla (or any other) EC? That question has now been answered beyond any doubt. Tomorrows question is ...How big is the actual market? $7B could just be the start. From where we are today the share price has as much chance as been $500 as $100 in 5 years time. It just a matter of opinion.

Tesla is split between bulls and bears. For the next few years my money is on Musk to deliver.

I'm not missing any point. Tesla share price is less than what it was on 18th March, yesterday or Thursday didn't answer anything the stock market didn't already know.

As you say later in your post "From where we are today the share price has as much chance as been $500 as $100 in 5 years time. It just a matter of opinion"...... my opinion is what I stated, in forming that opinion I missed no point.

Regarding your "mass market", considering Honda sold 345,647 CRVs in the US in 2015 I think Tesla have some way to go yet. Also one of the concerns is can Tesla make enough to satisfy the demand.

Missing launch dates thus delaying revenue streams doesn't do much for a share price.

Nissan Leaf is on sale for years without mass appeal, Tesla appeals to a certain demographic, there is a finite amount of people in that demographic. My opinion is you are perhaps overestimating how many is in that demographic and also you are underestimating the big IFs, can Tesla mass produce cars? Several hundred thousand cars per annum? No one knows.

We all have opinion, don't be accusing people of missing points just because you don't agree with them

lucky john

"We all have opinion, don't be accusing people of missing points just because you don't agree with them "

I didnt accuse "people" of anything. I said YOU MIGHT be missing the point I was trying to make. you still are and to be honest you still seem to be.

" Thursday didn't answer anything the stock market didn't already know"

Link or quote 1 person that was of the opinion tesla would have 200,000 pre orders by thursday evening. I will happily concede that you are right after that.

[Deleted User]

lucky john wrote: »

"We all have opinion, don't be accusing people of missing points just because you don't agree with them "

I didnt accuse "people" of anything. I said YOU MIGHT be missing the point I was trying to make. you still are and to be honest you still seem to be.

" Thursday didn't answer anything the stock market didn't already know"

Link or quote 1 person that was of the opinion tesla would have 200,000 pre orders by thursday evening. I will happily concede that you are right after that.

Tesla flogging lots of cars was reason stock price was what it was prior to Thursday, the link request and your criteria on thst validating me being right or not is ridiculous.

Whose expectation did 200k pre orders on Thursday exceed?
If the market was impressed/surprised price would have increased sharply in Friday, it didn't.

_Tombstone_

Augeo wrote: »

If the market was impressed/surprised price would have increased sharply in Friday, it didn't.

The Market has made alot of sense this year hasn't it.

[Deleted User]

_Tombstone_ wrote: »

The Market has made alot of sense this year hasn't it.

Deep.

Francie Barrett

Grecco wrote: »

Bowleven (BLVN.L) £0.22 Market cap £67 million

BowLeven looks interesting, an oil company that doesn't currently have any producing assets but with lots of cash in the bank.

Green Mile

Elon Musk’s dream is to progress the whole electric car market not just for Tesla. He publishes the technology as open source for other companies to use to help them to compete with Tesla and each other, to help aid the progression of making electric cars more affordable and mainstream to the public. It doesn’t matter to him if people buy Tesla or Google cars etc, his main goal is to trigger a move for all car companies to direct their resources to getting electric cars to the market to “better the world”. He outlines this himself in many Tesla interviews online.

Tesla is

in my opinion,

not a long term company to invest in. The guy is worth 13Billion, this is a project/hobby to him. Elon Musk is the closest we have to a real life Iron Man and has a cult following.
I sold my Tesla shares In profit and I think it was a good idea selling at that price when I did. It’s not a long term idea. But I could be wrong.

Francie Barrett

If people want to discuss Tesla - maybe they should create a separate thread?

[Deleted User]

redman wrote: »

Thanks Keeffo, this has proved a beauty so far. Good Call!

Hope your enjoying the march towards $1, been some 2 weeks

Also have a look at RAP.ASX, has huge potential if the FDA approve their healthcare app.

I have money in MCT.ASX as well but they have slumped in the last 2 weeks but holding them

Grecco

Anyone invested in Oil or Oil co.s this year? Brent has just broke through the $45 mark, this is even after the Kuwait Oil workers ended their strike. Expect plenty more strikes from Oil workers around the world this year. The Kuwait strike in particular came like a bolt out of the blue in terms of how much oil came off the market so quickly. In reality the glut of Oil could be wiped out very quickly.
Expect a good second half to 2016.

cherrytaz

Deleted User wrote: »

Still with Pilbara mineral PLS here, finished at AUD 0.36 today. It has risen 33% in 3 weeks. Big Lithium finds in WA, this share will break AUD 0.50 before the end of February

Big drop today of 9.5%. Is it time to get out? Some big earnings on this since January

Amouar

cherrytaz wrote: »

Big drop today of 9.5%. Is it time to get out? Some big earnings on this since January

How much did you invest in it if you don't mind sharing?

Green Mile

Facebook was a good one to be with recently, their profit statements exceeded the already high expectations.

Dreamworks animation is another one that shot up. Went up by 24% today due to being taken over.

[Deleted User]

cherrytaz wrote: »

Big drop today of 9.5%. Is it time to get out? Some big earnings on this since January

Good recovery today, hopefully this week will move to the 70s with the latest drill results.

Have you looked at PIO?

cherrytaz

Deleted User wrote: »

Good recovery today, hopefully this week will move to the 70s with the latest drill results.

Have you looked at PIO?

Very big recovery today, hopefully now back on track. No knowledge of PIO, must research it

ballyharpat

Grecco wrote: »

Anyone invested in Oil or Oil co.s this year? Brent has just broke through the $45 mark, this is even after the Kuwait Oil workers ended their strike. Expect plenty more strikes from Oil workers around the world this year. The Kuwait strike in particular came like a bolt out of the blue in terms of how much oil came off the market so quickly. In reality the glut of Oil could be wiped out very quickly.
Expect a good second half to 2016.

I was in Oil a little early in 2015, then heavier and very heavy in late 2015. at one point I was down about 50% of my portfolio, currently I am down about 10-12%, I see it making me some money, I plan on being at break even by mid july, and should be up 50% by november…….$70 per barrel will get me there…..

Roonbox

ballyharpat wrote: »

Grecco wrote: »

Anyone invested in Oil or Oil co.s this year? Brent has just broke through the $45 mark, this is even after the Kuwait Oil workers ended their strike. Expect plenty more strikes from Oil workers around the world this year. The Kuwait strike in particular came like a bolt out of the blue in terms of how much oil came off the market so quickly. In reality the glut of Oil could be wiped out very quickly.
Expect a good second half to 2016.

I was in Oil a little early in 2015, then heavier and very heavy in late 2015. at one point I was down about 50% of my portfolio, currently I am down about 10-12%, I see it making me some money, I plan on being at break even by mid july, and should be up 50% by november…….$70 per barrel will get me there…..

I think oil Looks like a decent short here with a view to retesting lows before finally putting in a bottom.

ballyharpat

Roonbox wrote: »

I think oil Looks like a decent short here with a view to retesting lows before finally putting in a bottom.

It would be great if one were into trading, I generally invest to hold for a year or more, unless they start showing good profit early then I start pulling out gradually if I think that I have made a significant profit and there is room for more upside, but also a risk of losing gains.

Roonbox

ballyharpat wrote: »

Roonbox wrote: »

I think oil Looks like a decent short here with a view to retesting lows before finally putting in a bottom.

It would be great if one were into trading, I generally invest to hold for a year or more, unless they start showing good profit early then I start pulling out gradually if I think that I have made a significant profit and there is room for more upside, but also a risk of losing gains.

True, its just a trade idea. Over the long term I am sure Crude will go higher.

Prezatch

cherrytaz wrote: »

Very big recovery today, hopefully now back on track. No knowledge of PIO, must research it

What broker did you use to buy on the ASX exchange?