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Predictions invited on outcome of Tipperary Constituency General Election 2016?

Xenophile

Tipperary South and Tipperary North currently with three seats each are to be merged into one five seat constituency at the next election.

The outcome is shaping up to be very interesting. Tom Hayes’s recent appointment was strategic or expedient maybe, some would call even cynical in an effort to hold on to two F.G seats in Tipperary.

It is rumoured in his area that Seamus Healy will retire from politics before the election.

I expect the result to be as follows, elected in no particular order

Tom Hayes F.G.

Alan Kelly Lab.

Another F.G. from Northern part of the constituency

Fianna Fail F.F from Northern part of the constituency

Michael Lowry Ind.

Don’t think Mattie McGrath will make it, apart from anything else geographically is very badly placed in the county.

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touts

jem wrote: »

Fair points, The hard job for Smith could be getting the nomination. Hoctor really only got over the line at convention by the fact that she was sitting TD,doesn't have that now and part of her area gone in to Offaly. would be disaster for FF if she got nomination ahead of Smith.

Disaster might be a strong description. Smith Jnr hasn't done much other than get baptised with Daddy's name. I think the public have outgrown the idea of dynastic politics. In fact a name like Davern or Smith where a family claim to a seat seems to be the only criteria for selection might actually work against them when it comes to the Election. Likewise Ambrose has strong family history but I don't think her father was ever a TD so she is trading more on her own reputation. But it's still a factor. Of them all at least Hocter is fighting fer her old seat not her daddy's seat. But she does have baggage from being a FF TD during the economic collapse.

Could FF parachute someone in from left of field? After all Mansgher was kind of dropped in there out of the blue and took a seat so it seems the people of Tipperary are at least open to that. Anyone retire from the Hurling team lately? At around 20% in the polls there probably is a FF seat in a 5 seat Tipperary so it would be tempting for someone if the party came knocking.

mikemac1

I don't think Alan Kelly will be successful.

Lost a lot of Northern voters to Offaly and has lost local support too, even around his own area of Portroe and Nenagh

Interesting to read here that Hoctor may try again. I thought she was finished with all this and would not come back.

tipptom

mikemac1 wrote: »

I don't think Alan Kelly will be successful.

Lost a lot of Northern voters to Offaly and has lost local support too, even around his own area of Portroe and Nenagh

Interesting to read here that Hoctor may try again. I thought she was finished with all this and would not come back.

You know if you mentioned FF and Hoctor to me 3 years I would have a fit but I think she would be a good choice for them and the dynastic politic(is that a word)is dying out I think.
Also Michael Martin is going for the female vote big time so I think this will stand to her on selection.
I don't think she is as stained as a lot of them,would I vote for her no because of FF, but Alan Kelly will not get my vote again so I guess I am one of these floating voters.

jem

touts wrote: »

Disaster might be a strong description. Smith Jnr hasn't done much other than get baptised with Daddy's name. I think the public have outgrown the idea of dynastic politics. In fact a name like Davern or Smith where a family claim to a seat seems to be the only criteria for selection might actually work against them when it comes to the Election. Likewise Ambrose has strong family history but I don't think her father was ever a TD so she is trading more on her own reputation. But it's still a factor. Of them all at least Hocter is fighting fer her old seat not her daddy's seat. But she does have baggage from being a FF TD during the economic collapse.

Could FF parachute someone in from left of field? After all Mansgher was kind of dropped in there out of the blue and took a seat so it seems the people of Tipperary are at least open to that. Anyone retire from the Hurling team lately? At around 20% in the polls there probably is a FF seat in a 5 seat Tipperary so it would be tempting for someone if the party came knocking.

Thats where you are wrong on Michael Smith Jnr. He is known as an extremely hard working Councillor. and look at the success of Taste of Roscrea his and Paul Fogarty's brain child.He is far from relying on his fathers name as can be seen by his vote in last locals topping the pole and elected on first count with a gale against FF.
Hoctor only just about her seat the previous time even though her vote was massively down and Smith Snr's held it own largely outside of Hoctor's area. Had her vote held up at all FF would have held both seats that time.

notharrypotter

Ambrose has strong family history but I don't think her father was ever a TD

He ran in November 1982 and did fairly well.

Davern worrying about an upstart in Clonmel came back from Europe to ensure he would not pose a threat to the "family" seat.

ratucdm

Saw this on Tipperary Times today. Nothing much about the candidates but interesting comparison heading towards the election

tipperarytimes.com/politics/paddyryan/tipperary-general-election-candidates-facing-their-own-bechers-brook/

Xenophile

Moderators,

I would appreciate if you would close this thread as there is a very active thread already open on the subject.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057412022