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Aussie dollar falling

s20101938

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

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catbear

Aus$ hovering around €.67, looking good.

around €.678, looking very good for buying euro.

res ipsa

catbear wrote: »

Aus$ hovering around €.67, looking good.

around €.678, looking very good for buying euro.

But you would be crazy to buy euro at the moment with the prospect of more QE. Best buy sterling & convert to euro at a later date.

cmac2009

Some collapse today!

massdebater

cmac2009 wrote: »

Some collapse today!

Currently 0.6681 on currencyfair. What did it fall from? I checked earlier in the week and it was 0.67something. Did it go much higher than this?

cnocbui

massdebater wrote: »

Currently 0.6681 on currencyfair. What did it fall from? I checked earlier in the week and it was 0.67something. Did it go much higher than this?

I don't know about currencyfair's price but it got to 0.6948 yesterday before Draghi opened his trap.

massdebater

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't know about currencyfair's price but it got to 0.6948 yesterday before Draghi opened his trap.

Where did you see that price?

cnocbui

massdebater wrote: »

Where did you see that price?

http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=AUD&to=EUR&amount=1

Dats_rite

I got matched at 0.695 just before the mini collapse....didn't think much of it at the time but glad I got it now

markymark21

Couple of armchair economists have advised me to dump savings into Irish bank account as the exchange rate is likely to fall further this year. Although this looks like it will probably happen, you can get better interest rates in an Aussie savings account then an Irish one (as far as I can see) and with the DIRT being 41% what ever interest you make takes a hit in Ireland

Not too sure what I'll do, I think I'll keep it in Aussie account and hope the exchange rate turns back around over the next few years

catbear

If you're happy with the savings rate in aus and you'll be there for a few years then no worries.
The worse can happy is an Aussie property crash and banking crisis that could repeat the A$ low of .50 euro cent. I do wonder how much lower it would gone if China hadn't gone on a massive structural spending spree.

catbear

Don't know what's driving it but Aus$ on a rip today. Hope it lasts.

catbear

Hopefully .68 soon, by recent standards a good rate for buying €.

cnocbui

catbear wrote: »

Hopefully .68 soon, by recent standards a good rate for buying €.

What do mean 'soon', kemo sabe?

catbear

cnocbui wrote: »

What do mean 'soon', kemo sabe?

You jinxed it, back down to .679!!!

cnocbui

catbear wrote: »

You jinxed it, back down to .679!!!

I just took a look and it was slightly over again. You must be the jinx.

I wish it would behave itself and go down again before Stevens has to cut the interest rate to make it.

catbear

I wonder what's driving it, iron ore prices have seen a good bump the last few weeks. It would be great to get it over .70!

cnocbui

I'd say it has more to do with negative interest rates making Oz government bonds look pretty good. I'd love to know how much Chinese capital is trying to get get in to purchase properties, businesses and the like before the wheels fall off.

catbear

WTF, it did a spike to .69 and then swooned to .66; I had had a nice lump of cash lined up for transfer.

cnocbui

The financial 'logic' seems a bit weird - look, they are going to devalue the Euro even more, let's all pile in so we can watch our capital lose value too.

Look on the bright side, the Revenue vultures won't be collecting much DIRT tax in the near future.

s20101938

With Trumps inauguration next weekend there could be some serious movement in Au$.

Read article a few weeks ago that reckons the Big 4 Aussie banks will need a Au$200Bn bailout when they collapse as the housing bubble bursts. If that happens expect all the big infrastructure projects coming up in VIC & NSW to be canned and expect capital controls to come in big time.

Is now the time to move? What to do

lg123

what a cheerey message to wrap up the weekend!!

where was the article?

Wanderer78

Steve keen reckons this is the year Australias economy tanks, it's gonna happen at some stage!

cnocbui

When was the last time the Australian economy tanked?

catbear

cnocbui wrote: »

When was the last time the Australian economy tanked?

1992. That's a couple of generations who've never known a recession.

There was a dip in 08 when the global markets tanked but then Australia took the ascendent chinese commodities escalator whilst everywhere else went down. Before that happened though the Australia government did up the deposit guarantee to a quarter of a million dollars so there were jitters already about their finance sector.

This reduced risk pushed money into bank deposits and then banks lent that back into the property market and with low interest rates property funds looked more attractive etc.....basically slapping a turbo on it and filling the car with airplane fuel.

Added to that this is the beginning of the babyboomer retirees who'll want to sell up their negatively geared investment properties once they can no longer avail of that income tax break.

lg123

catbear wrote: »

cnocbui wrote: »

When was the last time the Australian economy tanked?

1992. That's a couple of generations who've never known a recession.

Added to that this is the beginning of the babyboomer retirees who'll want to sell up their negatively geared investment properties once they can no longer avail of that income tax break.

One is definitely due......!!
how many of those baby boomers are negatively geared? of that cohort, I wouldn't think it's many.

Wanderer78

might interest some round here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-11/economist-steve-keen-says-australian-house-prices/8176628

catbear

lg123 wrote: »

One is definitely due......!!
how many of those baby boomers are negatively geared? of that cohort, I wouldn't think it's many.

According to this: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-03/fact-check-negative-gearing-scott-morrison/7180812

Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data shows that of the 12.78 million Australians who filed a tax return, 10 per cent (1.26 million) were negatively geared in terms of rental property, which meant they recorded net losses on rental properties.

Interesting stat showing 23% of police use negative gearing, reminds me gards owning all the bedsits in dublin in the past!

And of the age profiles I found this from 2015:

The common refrain I heard when I lived in Perth was that once China commodities rush cools off they'd have India to fill the gap. Well India seems in no rush to spend and Perth property has gone soft already.

For anyone seriously considering buying a home in Perth now this is a seriously good update on the current declining market: http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/09/mining-bust-crushes-incomes-house-prices-rents-in-perth-western-australia/

Next up is the bigger markets of Sydney and Melbourne. I reckon at the first sign of a serious funk or potential price declines the Chinese investors will bolt for the exits and flood the markets with all the empty apartments they've bought to park their cash.

catbear

Wanderer78 wrote: »

might interest some round here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-11/economist-steve-keen-says-australian-house-prices/8176628

Always found Keen extremely dry to listen to but he's not wrong in what he's saying.

listermint

catbear wrote: »

Always found Keen extremely dry to listen to but he's not wrong in what he's saying.

Link doesn't work....

Wanderer78

catbear wrote: »

Always found Keen extremely dry to listen to but he's not wrong in what he's saying.

ive only started looking into his work, comes across as being a little arrogant but certainly is no fool

listermint wrote: »

Link doesn't work....

working fine for me