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TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

Trade idea's, technical, fundamentals and anything trade related.

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jpboard1

moneymad wrote: »

That's it. We do. And ya Jameson it is. Long week

You trade medium/long term?

moneymad

I do. Suits my personailty. Put on one trade a month, and not worry about things so much.

jpboard1

moneymad wrote: »

I do. Suits my personailty. Put on one trade a month, and not worry about things so much.

forex?

moneymad

Ya forex, gold and eur/usd only. Yourself?

jpboard1

A mixture of forex and indices usually. Also some shares.

arrowloopboy

Their seems to be tumbleweed blowing through here of late,have ye all donned your tinhats and gone to ground:D:D:D.

jpboard1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Their seems to be tumbleweed blowing through here of late,have ye all donned your tinhats and gone to ground:D:D:D.

I still keep an eye to see if there is anyone around but there doesn't seem to be.

RobertKK

My biotech stocks not doing good, except Clovis which is well up from where I bought it but is falling also in this market, biotech in an official bear market. Bought some BIS on the 22nd Sept to hedge and that worked well. Same day bought some Jan 2016 $45 puts for WYNN, what a horrible chart that casino company stock has, that worked great so far, but biotech is not good.

For ever odd

Euro stoxx 50 is floating around the 3000 level, it has not had a monthly close below 3000 since it crossed above this level in October 2013.

Buy or sell?

RobertKK

For ever odd wrote: »

Euro stoxx 50 is floating around the 3000 level, it has not had a monthly close below 3000 since it crossed above this level in October 2013.

Buy or sell?

I think it goes lower, but I am in a bearish mood.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

I think it goes lower, but I am in a bearish mood.

I think technical a monthly close below 3070 would be considered a bear market (20% drop from April peak)

ixus

So much bearish newsflow added to the continued sell off. S&P has joined the party, likes being late.

Momentum suggests another leg lower to flush out longs/ stops on the eurostoxx 3k & dax 9k range. End of quarter repositioning Wed.

For ever odd

Short aud/usd @7079 it is at r3 on daily Pivot point, 38.2% fib is around 7069. Stop 7090(5 points above daily high)
Target profit1 7051 tp2 7030.

Slow day small trade, will close trade today.

EDIT Closed before us data

dasdog

Long GBP/USD this morning at 151.4, T1 152.2, SL 150.9. Markets have been extremely bearish on Sterling since the start of the recent sell off (the Carney saying to Fed "you go first" mentality appears priced in). The UK data that has come out in the past two days has been reasonable and there was nothing last week.

EUR/GBP looks quite overcooked and positive US data may bring it back down to £0.731 or below if GBP/USD holds up and the risk appetite that has crept back remains.

Been keeping all positions small the past couple of weeks.

EDIT: GBP/USD going nowhere even with today's US data. Closed @ 151.55. Market isn't changing its mind on the BoE. Will short EUR/GBP tomorrow if NFP surprises.

jpboard1

Still holding my AUD/USD longs. Hoping we are finally seeing my reasoning starting to play out.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

My biotech stocks not doing good, except Clovis which is well up from where I bought it but is falling also in this market, biotech in an official bear market. Bought some BIS on the 22nd Sept to hedge and that worked well. Same day bought some Jan 2016 $45 puts for WYNN, what a horrible chart that casino company stock has, that worked great so far, but biotech is not good.

Howya Robert, what is the story with biotech and healthcare sector?

Are you still holding all in the pension fund and doing a bit of trading on the side.

jpboard1

RobertKK wrote: »

My biotech stocks not doing good, except Clovis which is well up from where I bought it but is falling also in this market, biotech in an official bear market. Bought some BIS on the 22nd Sept to hedge and that worked well. Same day bought some Jan 2016 $45 puts for WYNN, what a horrible chart that casino company stock has, that worked great so far, but biotech is not good.

I really think Biotech will come again. Currently short BIS

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

Short aud/usd @7079 it is at r3 on daily Pivot point, 38.2% fib is around 7069. Stop 7090(5 points above daily high)
Target profit1 7051 tp2 7030.

Slow day small trade, will close trade today.

EDIT Closed before us data

Nice trade

RobertKK

For ever odd wrote: »

Howya Robert, what is the story with biotech and healthcare sector?

Are you still holding all in the pension fund and doing a bit of trading on the side.

I sold some of my losers in biotech like AAVL, maybe longer term it recovers but now with biotech in bear market I am just holding station,
Bought Clovis CLVS at $69 when it had a sell off in August, ZIOP at 8.33M, was doing well with EPZM bought at 16 and it went to 21 but now in the 12s, own a small bit of Manchester United.
But for my trading I bought BIS - ultrashort biotech at 32.30 should have sold at 43 but current in the high 37s. Still not sure with biotech so will keep it a bit longer.
Hillary Clinton talked about capping the price of drugs due to idiot Martin Shkreli rising the price of a drug by 5000%. It started a sell off that has continued, the bubble burst. Some nice priced biotech stocks but the market is so uncertain it is hard to buy with confidence.
So I trade Wynn resorts too, one of the ugliest charts out there, the casino company has gone from $250 last year to today's price of $51, decided to use stock options, bought $45 Jan 2016 puts last week and sold for a 64% return, should have waited and I would have made a lot more, but profit is profit.
Then bought some Jan $40 puts, currently up 24%.

Biotech is a mess at the moment, but will wait for a bit of stability before I buy any. The IBB ETF 25% off it's summer highs, carnage everywhere...easier to find losers in biotech than winners at the moment.

RobertKK

jpboard1 wrote: »

I really think Biotech will come again. Currently short BIS

Agree, except I am long BIS, with all the volatility we could both be winners :pac:

For ever odd

WYNN

Yeah, it's mess of a chart alright, long term Support/resistance around 42-43. Short term a small bounce to 53 could be on the cards.

If it plays out,a short after it comes back down through 53
Could be a nice set up, if keeping risk small.

Haven't time to research it, what happened to it for the big sell off, what are the fundimentals like?

RobertKK

For ever odd wrote: »

WYNN

Yeah, it's mess of a chart alright, long term Support/resistance around 42-43. Short term a small bounce to 53 could be on the cards.

If it plays out,a short after it comes back down through 53
Could be a nice set up, if keeping risk small.

Haven't time to research it, what happened to it for the big sell off, what are the fundimentals like?

It is up today pre-market due to talk that China will support their casino industry in Macau.

China has been cracking down on their people using the casinos in Macau to launder money. The VIP Market which brought in most money has collapsed and WYNN made a big play here and are very exposed to it, more so than MGM which still is heavily reliant on Las Vegas.
WYNN revenues have been falling sharply and they are heavily indebted. The China gamble isn't paying off a the moment, the Chinese government may rescue them by allowing more visas from mainland China to visit Macau.
Gaming revenue in Macau has been falling for 16 months now.
Since the end of September last year to the most recent Earnings report at the end of June, Wynn had total assets value rise a little over $100 million to $9.2 billion, while total liabilities rose about $400 million to $9.5 billion.
Back in late 2007 to early 2009, they suffered a similar fate as share price fell from around $165 to $10.
Maybe China rescues their casino industry, have to keep a close eye on it, maybe just a dead cat bounce today as a rumour that was out yesterday seems to be gaining a bit of traction today with share price.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

It is up today pre-market due to talk that China will support their casino industry in Macau.

China has been cracking down on their people using the casinos in Macau to launder money. The VIP Market which brought in most money has collapsed and WYNN made a big play here and are very exposed to it, more so than MGM which still is heavily reliant on Las Vegas.
WYNN revenues have been falling sharply and they are heavily indebted. The China gamble isn't paying off a the moment, the Chinese government may rescue them by allowing more visas from mainland China to visit Macau.
Gaming revenue in Macau has been falling for 16 months now.
Since the end of September last year to the most recent Earnings report at the end of June, Wynn had total assets value rise a little over $100 million to $9.2 billion, while total liabilities rose about $400 million to $9.5 billion.
Back in late 2007 to early 2009, they suffered a similar fate as share price fell from around $165 to $10.
Maybe China rescues their casino industry, have to keep a close eye on it, maybe just a dead cat bounce today as a rumour that was out yesterday seems to be gaining a bit of traction today with share price.

Wow, thanks Robert!

I have said it before on your thread, but I'll say it again, I really like the quality of your research.

RobertKK

Closed my put position at open for -8% loss as it was looking bad, plus it was confirmed that a Chinese official said they would support Macau, shorts are covering today, and now up around 14%. I made money with this stock so there was no point in being greedy.
Will watch for now, the call options were the good play.

brice_nobes

is it standard policy for brokers to insist that an option be closed three hours prior to the close of markets , i was holding call options on a particular stock since monday , didnt want to close until it went above the strike price so i could maximise my proft , while i was away , i received a message from the broker ( margin call ) to say they were closing the possition

1 . while i would not have had the sixty grand needed to buy the 2000 shares , i always understood that i was not obliged to buy the stocks should my call finish above the strike , i could simply have let them expire worthless ( 108 euro initial investment on the calls )

2 . i had intended to close out the position anyway

when i rang up about it , the guy told me they usually insist on options positions being closed two hours before the close of bell , in this instance , they closed it three hours prior to the closing bell

had i been given an extra half hour , i would have saw a small profit of about forty euro , them taking unilateral action cost me 110 euro

For ever odd

Rugby world cup

There is a belief that if a nation wins in a big sporting event that the next day people being in a good mood the index of that nation outperforms and if they lose it underperforms.
(works in soccer world cup)

Australia v England are two big rugby nations, so will keep an eye on it to see if there is anything in it. Only thing is time difference for a pair/ spread trade.
When it comes to the knockout stages and further, it might serve up a novelty trade.

ixus

I ran analysis on this before. Findings are limited.

Oz and ftse be up Monday on back of US barring some negative non sporting event over weekend.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

I ran analysis on this before. Findings are limited.

Oz and ftse be up Monday on back of US barring some negative non sporting event over weekend.

Yeah, should be risk on in U.S Equities bringing the dollar up with it and giving Draghi a bit of breathing room.

arrowloopboy

For ever odd wrote: »

Rugby world cup

There is a belief that if a nation wins in a big sporting event that the next day people being in a good mood the index of that nation outperforms and if they lose it underperforms.
(works in soccer world cup)

Australia v England are two big rugby nations, so will keep an eye on it to see if there is anything in it. Only thing is time difference for a pair/ spread trade.
When it comes to the knockout stages and further, it might serve up a novelty trade.

Simon Thompson deals with this phenomenon in his first book,and gives an indept insight into it,as well as a few others.

For ever odd

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Simon Thompson deals with this phenomenon in his first book,and gives an indept insight into it,as well as a few others.

Cheers, It was bugging me where the idea came from.
Matt mentioned it last night on TV3 about new Zealand index going down when they lose.

Dusted off simons book there now, must read it again,it's been awhile.