Mediterranean migrants- specific questions

Jelle1880 wrote: »

How will you check if someone is from Syria if they have no passport ? Believe them on their word ? And by all accounts a lot of the fake passports are pretty well made.

This is not some attempt at discrediting the actual Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis, but it's a well-founded worry that some people may abuse the asylum system.

Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis are not identical, do not speak the same dialect or language. If you think that an Albanian or Kosovan can pass any of the three, then I'd say you're overly optimistic on their behalf.

gobsh!te

Nodin wrote: »

Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis are not identical, do not speak the same dialect or language. If you think that an Albanian or Kosovan can pass any of the three, then I'd say you're overly optimistic on their behalf.

Saying Iraqis and Syrians are different is just dumb.

The only reason they exist as counties is due to how the border was drawn by the French and British after the Ottoman Empire fell after WW1.

Sure they might have slightly different accents but they both have Kurds, Christians, Sunnis and Sh'ite communities.....both speak Arabic...I mean come on...Any person from Iraq could easily say they were Syrian and vice versa...

IF you are so wrong on this....is it possible you are so wrong on other issues....You did say that all the refugees Ireland were accepting were Syrian......

foggy_lad

gobsh!te wrote: »

Saying Iraqis and Syrians are different is just dumb.

The only reason they exist as counties is due to how the border was drawn by the French and British after the Ottoman Empire fell after WW1.

Sure they might have slightly different accents but they both have Kurds, Christians, Sunnis and Sh'ite communities.....both speak Arabic...I mean come on...Any person from Iraq could easily say they were Syrian and vice versa...

IF you are so wrong on this....is it possible you are so wrong on other issues....You did say that all the refugees Ireland were accepting were Syrian......

Many on the boats even have Syria written on their hands to remind them where to say they are from!

gobsh!te wrote: »

Saying Iraqis and Syrians are different is just dumb.

The only reason they exist as counties is due to how the border was drawn by the French and British after the Ottoman Empire fell after WW1.

Sure they might have slightly different accents but they both have Kurds, Christians, Sunnis and Sh'ite communities.....both speak Arabic...I mean come on...Any person from Iraq could easily say they were Syrian and vice versa...

IF you are so wrong on this....is it possible you are so wrong on other issues....You did say that all the refugees Ireland were accepting were Syrian......

But it doesn't matter if an Iraqi says he is Syrian, since they both have reason to request asylum due to the states in their respective countries.

I was indeed talking more about Kosovars, Albanians,... claiming they are Syrian. I'm not sure how many people will be able to understand the difference in language between a Syrian, an Iraqi,... on one hand or a Kosovar, Albanian,... (both countries with a very large percentage of Muslims in their population and some from Arab backgrounds). I'd say you would have to be from one of the countries to understand the differences.

rgossip30

Nodin wrote: »

The question asked was specifically in relation to the med and the Syrians.

"Should the Government have offered to settle more, less, or is the number just right, or should the Government not have offered to get involved in the settlement programme"

...thus saying that the public want a cap on asylum seekers is stretching it.

http://www.resettlement.eu/page/eu-funding-resettlement-erfamif

Please explain.

Not sure what you are trying to twist with the cap .I doubt the public want an unlimited flow of migrants.

2) Lump sum per resettled refugee – the AMIF provides Member States with a lump sum amount of €6,000 for each resettled refugee, and €10,000 for each resettled refugee falling into one of the following categories

The amount is just paltry when you consider the cost of housing and welfare for these migrants.

To merely state that asylum seekers will work when resettled is just speculation.

jackofalltrades

Lockstep wrote: »

Not quite, as you're ignoring being granted asylum under subsidiary protection. These are clearly taken into account in the above charts.

More simply Eurostat states

This means that between Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis, the success rate is 93%. They won't be many appealing decisions as the overwhelming majority will be granted asylum in the first instance. This is in addition to the fact the government will almost certainly be engaging in some preliminary work before bringing them to Ireland.

I'm not ignoring people being granted subsidiary protection.
The original point that I made at the start of this conversation is, that bringing in 3500 asylum seekers will create a lot of work for the agencies who process their claims.
And that having concerns of their capability to deal with this workload is a genuine concern.

Hypothetically if all the 3500 asylum seekers are Syrian, and using Q2 2015 EU-28 figures.

73% will be granted refugee status.
27% will be denied refugee status.
5% will be denied both refugee status and subsidiary protection.

That's a potential 945 applicants who could lodge various appeals and take these appeals to various stages in the process.

Yup, it makes allowances for all people brought to Ireland but subsequently found to be ineligible for asylum.

What's your source for this?

Yeah but the government are hardly just gonna take random people or say "Where you from? Syria? Great, get in the van".

We have no idea what the government will do.
Unless you have a source that details their procedures?

I didn't say the majority, I said the plurality. This is based on the fact that Syrians are the plurality of those arriving in Europe.

Yes, I mentioned this on the very last page. See here

Irish Times

Fair point, you didn't say majority.
But my question pertained to where exactly we are taking these asylum seekers from, as in what country are they currently located in?

You don't? The German estimate said it was based on estimates by German police and Frontex. Given we've no data available by the German police (unless you can provide some), we've only Frontex's to look at. Frontex's figures between January and August show 42% of arrivals as Syrian. This is similar enough to the UNHCR's figure of 54% (which is the latest, September figures)
Bringing up the UNHCR is vital as they're figures show that over half of Mediterranean arrivals are Syrian. Likewise, Frontex show that over 40% (although their figures ignore the huge spike in September) If it was merely a case of self-assesment for nationality, do you not think the numbers would be much, much higher than this? Given a Syrian has effectively guaranteed asylum>

I still don't.
I asked an open ended question originally.
You said you didn't know the answer.
I then made a guess at what it might be.
You then came back with "Doubtful. Self-declared is a possibility but I can't see why refugees would bother lying to the UNHCR."
As if I accused these asylum seekers of lying by making a guess at the selection process.

gobsh!te

Looks like the some people are starting to change their minds

http://news.yahoo.com/germany-beefs-asylum-rules-half-million-cross-med-042558701.html

jackofalltrades

Nodin wrote: »

Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis are not identical, do not speak the same dialect or language.

Care to point out who is saying this?
Cause it looks a lot like you're strawmaning.

If you think that an Albanian or Kosovan can pass any of the three, then I'd say you're overly optimistic on their behalf.

Pass to who though? That's the real important question here.
Can a Senegalese or a Sudanese pass as an Eritrean?
What about an Iranian trying to pass as an Iraqi?
Or a Turk trying to pass as a Syrian?

gobsh!te wrote: »

Saying Iraqis and Syrians are different is just dumb.

....

You'll pardon me if I refute that devastating critique by pointing out that Iraqis and Syrians are a different people, with a different history, who speak distinctly different dialects of Arabic.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Pass to who though? That's the real important question here.
Can a Senegalese or a Sudanese pass as an Eritrean?
What about an Iranian trying to pass as an Iraqi?
Or a Turk trying to pass as a Syrian?

Iranians are generally Persians, not Arabs and speak Farsi. Turks are not Arab and speak Turkish. Senegal is composed of very different ethnic groups to Eritrea and they speak a different group of languages.

rgossip30 wrote: »

Not sure what you are trying to twist with the cap .I doubt the public want an unlimited flow of migrants.

2) Lump sum per resettled refugee – the AMIF provides Member States with a lump sum amount of €6,000 for each resettled refugee, and €10,000 for each resettled refugee falling into one of the following categories

The amount is just paltry when you consider the cost of housing and welfare for these migrants.

To merely state that asylum seekers will work when resettled is just speculation.

Are you implying that no refugees will work?

You are aware that stating that Refugees will not work would most certainly be speculation?

Jelle1880 wrote: »

But it doesn't matter if an Iraqi says he is Syrian, since they both have reason to request asylum due to the states in their respective countries.

I was indeed talking more about Kosovars, Albanians,... claiming they are Syrian. I'm not sure how many people will be able to understand the difference in language between a Syrian, an Iraqi,... on one hand or a Kosovar, Albanian,... (both countries with a very large percentage of Muslims in their population and some from Arab backgrounds). I'd say you would have to be from one of the countries to understand the differences.

.....to be honest that makes as much sense as saying its impossible to tell one European from another.

Nodin wrote: »

.....to be honest that makes as much sense as saying its impossible to tell one European from another.

It does make sense.

You're saying there is nothing that would allow Kosovars, Albanians,... to pretend to be Syrians in order to get asylum because supposedly they do not look like each other or speak a different language.

Kosovo and Albania (just some examples) both have large Muslim populations so many of them will likely be knowledgeable in Arab in some form (since you can't actually be Muslim if you don't at least have a basic knowledge of any Arab language). Your average Syrian also won't look particularly stereotypical Arab, they could often pass for southern Europeans so someone from the Balkans could potentially pass as one of them.
Unless the people questioning them know exactly how to spot a dialect in Arab then it's perfectly possible that non-Syrians from non-conflict zones can claim asylum.

I don't even know why I'm explaining it, the facts are out there that many claiming to be Syrian actually aren't.

It's a genuine issue and there is no use denying it.

Jelle1880 wrote: »

It does make sense.

You're saying there is nothing that would allow Kosovars, Albanians,... to pretend to be Syrians in order to get asylum because supposedly they do not look like each other or speak a different language.

Kosovo and Albania (just some examples) both have large Muslim populations so many of them will likely be knowledgeable in Arab in some form (since you can't actually be Muslim if you don't at least have a basic knowledge of any Arab language). Your average Syrian also won't look particularly stereotypical Arab, they could often pass for southern Europeans so someone from the Balkans could potentially pass as one of them.

I don't even know why I'm explaining it, the facts are out there that many claiming to be Syrian actually aren't.

It's a genuine issue and there is no use denying it.

There is more than one dialect of Arabic. "claiming" and being able to get away with it are two rather different things.

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Kosovo and Albania (just some examples) both have large Muslim populations so many of them will likely be knowledgeable in Arab in some form (since you can't actually be Muslim if you don't at least have a basic knowledge of any Arab language).

Quoting verses from the Qur'an isn't going to convince anyone with even half a brain that they are Syrian. Also the Arabic of the Qur'an is classical Arabic, what's spoken day to day (regardless of the dialect) isn't identical either so they'd stand out a mile away.

Frank Grimes wrote: »

Quoting verses from the Qur'an isn't going to convince anyone with even half a brain that they are Syrian. Also the Arabic of the Qur'an is classical Arabic, what's spoken day to day (regardless of the dialect) isn't identical either so they'd stand out a mile away.

Do you think that everyone who enters Europe is questioned ? If it's even half I'd be impressed.

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Do you think that everyone who enters Europe is questioned ? If it's even half I'd be impressed.

I don't see what relevance that has to my post, or do you just want to imply that it's a free for all?

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Do you think that everyone who enters Europe is questioned ? If it's even half I'd be impressed.

They'll be processed eventually, if not immediately.

jackofalltrades

Nodin wrote: »

Iranians are generally Persians, not Arabs and speak Farsi. Turks are not Arab and speak Turkish.

Iranians speak a variety of languages, one of them being Kurdish.
Turks speak several languages, including Kurdish.
Which is also a language spoken in Syria.

Not to get bogged down in specific cases, but if identification rests on a language then you're leaving the door open for people not from these countries to be taken in.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Iranians speak a variety of languages, one of them being Kurdish.
Turks speak several languages, including Kurdish.
Which is also a language spoken in Syria.

Not to get bogged down in specific cases, but if identification rests on a language then you're leaving the door open for people not from these countries to be taken in.

It's one factor amongst a number. Personally I regard the notion that people can't be checked as ridiculous.

Wurzelbert

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Iranians speak a variety of languages, one of them being Kurdish.
Turks speak several languages, including Kurdish.
Which is also a language spoken in Syria.

Not to get bogged down in specific cases, but if identification rests on a language then you're leaving the door open for people not from these countries to be taken in.

yes, all this should be handled differently...as i have posted before…

Wurzelbert wrote: »

yes, all this should be handled differently...as i have posted before…

So you at least accept that people from outside the EU can be checked.

Lockstep

Ah wait, are people here honestly arguing that Balkan Albanians will be able to pass themselves off as Levant Arabs?
Dear lord.

Lockstep wrote: »

Ah wait, are people here honestly arguing that Balkan Albanians will be able to pass themselves off as Levant Arabs?
Dear lord.

But...MUSLIMS!

Lockstep wrote: »

Ah wait, are people here honestly arguing that Balkan Albanians will be able to pass themselves off as Levant Arabs?
Dear lord.

It reminds of the story about Brendan Behan when he was being deported from Britain (I think). Before he was sent off he had to go through customs, and when they asked "What is your nationality?" he answered "I, Sir, am a Yemenite Arab.".

Lockstep

jackofalltrades wrote: »

I'm not ignoring people being granted subsidiary protection.
The original point that I made at the start of this conversation is, that bringing in 3500 asylum seekers will create a lot of work for the agencies who process their claims.
And that having concerns of their capability to deal with this workload is a genuine concern.

Hypothetically if all the 3500 asylum seekers are Syrian, and using Q2 2015 EU-28 figures.

73% will be granted refugee status.
27% will be denied refugee status.
5% will be denied both refugee status and subsidiary protection.

That's a potential 945 applicants who could lodge various appeals and take these appeals to various stages in the process.

Ah wait, I get you now.
However, that still leaves hundreds of Syrians (hypothetically) who are perfectly entitled to claim asylum here but forced to wait due to our ridiculous asylum system.
Of course, they could apply for refugee status, get rejected and then immediately apply for subsidiary protection. However, this is a problem with our system. Not with the asylum seekers themselves.
They shouldn't be punished for our bureaucracy and inefficiencies.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

What's your source for this?

The fact that the government said they expect 90% of such intakes to be successful. Presumably they've factored in that some will be from different countries.
They're hardly going to assume that every refugee is where they say they're from.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

We have no idea what the government will do.
Unless you have a source that details their procedures?

Ah now. It's a fairly safe bet that the government will be more diligent than automatically accepting wherever asylum seekers say they're from. Are you honestly trying to argue otherwise? If they did this, we'd have a much more liberal asylum regime than we currently do.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Fair point, you didn't say majority.
But my question pertained to where exactly we are taking these asylum seekers from, as in what country are they currently located in?

Greece and Hungary mainly. Makes sense, seeing as these are where the refugees are ending up.
Source
Makes sense really as the EU plan is to redistribute those from Greece, Italy and Hungary

jackofalltrades wrote: »

I still don't.
I asked an open ended question originally.
You said you didn't know the answer.
I then made a guess at what it might be.
You then came back with "Doubtful. Self-declared is a possibility but I can't see why refugees would bother lying to the UNHCR."
As if I accused these asylum seekers of lying by making a guess at the selection process.

You said you were asking why this was relevent. If you're going to bring in the German interior ministry, it seems unlikely when one of their own sources (for their vague and unverifiable estimate) is Frontex. Who'se own sources show a significant plurality are Syrian.
I'm not really sure what your point is here.

Lockstep wrote: »

Ah wait, are people here honestly arguing that Balkan Albanians will be able to pass themselves off as Levant Arabs?
Dear lord.

Indeed, completely preposterous.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-europe-migrants-tensions-idUSKCN0RL1OS20150921

Are you genuinely saying that it would be impossible a non-Syrian to portray himself as one ? 'They speak a different language/dialect' really is not a valid argument.

I never said they will definitely succeed, merely that they are attempting and that I don't think they will all be discovered to be non-Syrians.