jaymla627 wrote: The euro is starting to strengthen again, so where is that going to leave things...hopefully big phil will be kind to us next week
kowtow wrote: » We are in the hands of a currency we don't control and a minister we can't control. God help us
mf240 wrote: » Looking at the glanbia calendar in the dairy this morning. And the milk was collected today. So the milk that i put in the tank this evening. . I wont know how much ill be paid for it untill mid october.
stanflt wrote: » Today's and Saturdays milk included in August milk- sun onwards is sept which is a 5 week month
alps wrote: » So you guys trade in blocks of weeks? If you purchase input on Monday 31st, are they charged from the 5 week month? Is there an advantage to this system or is it purely to facilitate administration, which seems smart as you can always keep Mondays work to Monday etc?
jaymla627 wrote: » Pretty worrying how much it has strengthened in relation to the us dollar and especially the kiwi dollar, even if their is another rise in the next gdt the way currency markets are going, it gives co-ops here the perfect excuse to cut prices again....
WheatenBriar wrote: » That is simply not the case The euro has not strengtened It briefly hit $1.15 last week but is at $1.12 today This time last year it was around $1.30 and as high as $1.40 at times
Dawggone wrote: » Interesting article from Tony Baldwin in the biz section of today's NZ Herald. Sorry can't post a link. Gives a good perspective on Fonterra and the route that Irish processors should NOT follow.
kowtow wrote: » On the subject of European support / intervention prices one important point occurs to me whenever I see this discussed in the press. I am aware that the following point will be contentious, but it needs to be said nevertheless. There is no sane argument whatsoever for increasing intervention prices to any level which would relieve the pressure on Irish dairy farmers. Intervention exists to stabilise a milk supply and ensure that producers continue in business (basically food security). The Irish industry has little or nothing to do with actual demand for milk - Irish dairy farming is overwhelmingly a speculative industry seeking to profit by selling milk into the world's surplus milk market (the powder market). Leaving aside branded products and high value items (baby powder?) bluntly there is no actual demand for Irish milk per se - it just adds to the world's marginal surplus market and sometimes prices are high enough for us to enjoy a profit given local conditions and low cash costs. The world has not asked us to produce this milk, and very little of it is required to satisfy the need for food security. In contrast, there is some sense at least (although I don't agree with it) in supporting price to a level which ensures that every European country is able to produce it's fresh dairy requirement - in our case, as is well known, we are miles and miles past this point. As a matter of fact to subsidise intervention to the point where it made a difference here would, by definition, be an encouragement to over production and therefore self defeating. I'm quite sure that the officials in Brussels have some grasp of this even if our representatives at home seem to struggle with it.
Dawggone wrote: » I thought it a bit funny that investors found the € a safe haven with the turmoil in equities. I wonder are these investors the same ones that never pass an excuse to have a swipe at it?
pedigree 6 wrote: » Thank feck for the west cork co-ops. Any farms for sale down there?
Deepsouthwest wrote: » Dearest agricultural land in Ireland is what they used to say about the Barryroe area of west cork a few yrs ago. A lot of land now making €350/€400 an acre to rent. Making €250+ in my part, and that's for a lot more marginal land. Makes the €350/€400 sound good value! I'd gladly swap my lot for a farm 2/3's the size up in tipp/midlands/southeast area, but I'd miss my sea view!
Panch18 wrote: » And yet not 12 months ago the price of milk was 40 cent or more and the world couldn't get enough milk - Irish milk included.
kowtow wrote: » The thing about the powder market is that it has a buffering capacity - product can be stored, bought ahead, and - one suspects - at some level one supply of protein can be exchanged for another. They aren't turning this powder into vintage Camembert or fresh butter. [/equote] The correlation between veg protein and milk protein is very strong. Once our returns go much above 35c/l veg protein becomes a viable alternative for some food processors. They start to use the veg alternatives lowering demand and then it's probably a case of how far forward they buy the alternatives and how far and fast powder prices drop before they come back in.
kowtow wrote: » The thing about the powder market is that it has a buffering capacity - product can be stored, bought ahead, and - one suspects - at some level one supply of protein can be exchanged for another. They aren't turning this powder into vintage Camembert or fresh butter. So we can assume - in my opinion - that for the most part milk prices are driven by the various liquid & premium markets around the world. When liquid supplies are short(er) than usual, less surplus is cast off into the powder market and prices there run higher - never as high as liquid, as far as I am aware, which would I think be the inflection we would be looking for to prove that there was a genuine shortage of powder as opposed to less surplus liquid than usual with a tightening of powder as a consequence. It's possible that I am wrong on this - but it's actually really important. The supplier in a liquid / balanced demand country has an inbuilt advantage in that the first portion of his milk is actually in fresh demand - he benefits from the liquid price. He will continue to milk away (absent any form of quota) until the price he gets for his milk (in the powder market) is basically the cost of the feed that produces it. Hence the close relationship between NZ milk prices and feed prices. Because countries can put powder in inventory, they will continue to buy at these low prices - up to a point - because they are essentially banking the low global feed price. I suppose what we should be looking for is the powder price to drop right down to or below the cost of feed as an indication that the world has taken on as much cheap milk as it can absorb. This may be what has begun to happen this year in NZ. You are looking for the point where the American producer has no market for his milk, no matter how cheaply he can produce it, and culls the herd as a result.Does it appear that NZ has hit this point before the US has? And if so, what does that tell us?
RightTurnClyde wrote: » What kills me is that Coveney has been harping on for the last 4 years about all the milk we can produce, how competitive we are, and how cheaply we can produce it. Now that the pressure is on, on our competition more than us, he's leading the cavalry out to Brussels to lift the intervention price and resuscitate our competition. Idiot.
pedigree 6 wrote: » I was just going to ask how greenfields is doing, what with paying no tax and getting free quota. Also just wondering do they have to buy any shares.
alps wrote: » Stop believing the opinion formers about us being competitive. Farmers need to do their own figures and have their own opinion on how comptitive we are. I'm sick of people quoting teagasc on how much it costs to produce milk....why can't farmers quote how much it costs them to produce milk. The real cost of producing milk can be seen in the teagasc led greenfield farm, and that is running a line so close to being broke that it just ain't funny. Know your own figures and don't let others including the minister spout chyte at you in relation to competitiveness. Competitiveness relates to margin, not just least cost. We can be as brovado as you like but we're not going to win a game of poker against the rest.
