The_Conductor wrote: » The Dublin market is now being fed with vastly higher volumes of property- than previously- however, the volumes of sales- has not increased.
johnp001 wrote: » I was only referring to PPR figures as graphed here Thanks for the further local information. Median and average house values for 2015 seem to be slightly ahead of 2014 according to that graph which is why I picked it out as an example of an urban or urban adjacent area that was faring better than purely rural property.
iguana wrote: » Limerick only bottomed out a year ago, so what's largely happening here is an upswell of purchases as houses finally fell to affordability. Properties are selling much faster and most of those which have been on the market for 12-24 months+ (with numerous price drops) have finally sold. Asking prices are still falling in many areas, though rising in others. I don't know if we'll see much by way of price rises and if we do how long they will continue. The CB rules will definitely have an effect as the well of cash buyers will have been reduced by the last year of purchases. And if we start hearing news of prices in Dublin dropping again, buyers will lose confidence and won't want to waste their hard earned and saved 20%+ deposits unless they feel very sure they are getting value.
The_Conductor wrote: » ...Price rises in rural areas- are masking definite trends downwards in the Dublin market- and if/when rural prices follow Dublin prices- the masking effect will turn to a multiplying effect instead. ...
johnp001 wrote: » Limerick is performing well.
The_Conductor wrote: » 250 properties over the last week (since the 23rd of July) in Dublin? Something seems a bit odd? 250 properties new to the market in Dublin in a week seems a bit improbably high to me? Its the end of July- but even at peak selling- it would still seem a bit improbable.
Floodzie wrote: » Still seeing lots of new stock coming on the market in Dublin... http://www.myhome.ie/recent/dublin
alastair wrote: » Dublin still has comparitively low levels of stock on the market. There's still lots of room for growth there. Autumn will tell us what kind of volume of sales to expect, as it's the typical dead time of year until then in any case.
The_Conductor wrote: » The Dublin market is now being fed with vastly higher volumes of property- than previously- however, the volumes of sales- has not increased. The lengths of time to sell a property- are stretching continuously.
alastair wrote: » No offence - but that's pretty much besides the point. We've always had a stratified property market - that's not going to change, nor is the averaging of those stratified markets into a national average. The current price scenario is no more 'artificial' than any other time - be it a scenario of rises or falls. There's no definite trend evident in Dublin, other than an end to the rapid price increases prompted by constrained stock and the impetus to buy before the CB rules kicked in. That itself wasn't a trend either, as it could only sustain within that context.
johnp001 wrote: » And there is further stratification with urban adjacent areas performing well while rural prices continue to languish. Cork prices and volumes are both increasing strongly according to PPR. In the greater dublin area Kildare, Louth and Meath are also all strongly up on the PPR graphs. Limerick is performing well. Meanwhile counties without proximity to major urban centres e.g. Longford, Roscommon, Offaly, Sligo, Mayo, Tipperary are all still on a downward trajectory.
The_Conductor wrote: » The 'relatively flat scenario that sustains 2014 prices' that we currently have- is artificial. Price rises in rural areas- are masking definite trends downwards in the Dublin market- and if/when rural prices follow Dublin prices- the masking effect will turn to a multiplying effect instead. The elephant in all debate about Irish prices- wholly aside from the fact that we have 3 distinct property markets now- is the ridiculously low volumes that we are talking about. Where volumes are so low- any transactions out of the ordinary- which I'd argue include NAMA sales- and the likes of Allsop selling entire blocks of apartments which are then flipped- do skew prices. We have a 'relatively flat market' only if you are trying to argue that the Irish property is a single market- and not at least 3 separate submarkets- which are acting independently of one another.
alastair wrote: » There is in 2012 though. Not that it matters - you can't rely on repeats of any patterns on prices.
The_Conductor wrote: » Dublin's falls at the start of the year- if you look at figures for previous years- mirrored what happened previously. Dublin's falls more latterly- do not- they are out of pattern. Its not appropriate to point at the falls in Q1 and say- we recovered from them in 2014- therefore something similar will happen in 2015. We did not have commensurate falls in late April/May/June in the Dublin market in 2014 (and 2013)- that are evident in the data here. The sole driver of any growth at all- gross- over the last 5 months- has been rural price rises (which would still show rises nationally- even if you stripped out Dublin prices for the last 5 months). The types of property selling- are also of interest- in the Dublin market- there had been an increase in the absolute number of sales of lower value properties- in Q1- before the levels of activity in the market sunk below levels at which we can conduct a valid statistical analysis. I'd suggest the current issue- is a vast increase in supply- particularly of properties just above the thresholds that people are capable of financing- that is causing a logjam (and is only going to get worse). If you were to look at Cork- for example- this massive increase in supply- has not happened yet- but is foreseeable. The Dublin / Other major urban centres / rural markets- have clearly stratified now- and major issues are becoming more apparent.
alastair wrote: » And yet, there's nothing to suggest that we're about to see the kind of dramatic price falls that would result in dropping back to 2013 prices - even in Dublin. I'm not sure what major issues you believe are becoming apparent, but there's always been an obvious stratification between Dublin and the rural property market, and there probably always will be.
The_Conductor wrote: » We did not have commensurate falls in late April/May/June in the Dublin market in 2014 (and 2013)- that are evident in the data here.
alastair wrote: » But no-one is claiming that continued 'inappropriate property price appreciation' is likely. A relatively flat scenario that sustains the average 2014 prices is what we currently have, and even with increased stock and the new 20% deposit regime, there's no indicators that prices will drop back below those 2014 averages.
The_Conductor wrote: » The Dublin / Other major urban centres / rural markets- have clearly stratified now- and major issues are becoming more apparent.
alastair wrote: » Dublin prices fell less than a half percent in the last month. Which doesn't bode well for any close run thing on falling below the 2014 average. Even if you believe that there's an acceleration in price falls in place, which is by no means certain, Dublin had bigger drops at the start of the year, followed by growth.
The_Conductor wrote: » The other side of this coin is- a larger number of lower value properties hitting the market- could seriously skew the data. Keep in mind 2014 saw a large number of executor sales- and cash buyers were still over 60% of the market (they're still at a rather startling 40%- but nowhere near as high as they were even 12 months ago- and falling as a percentage of purchasers at an increasing pace). There are a number of factors- of which the central bank lending rules are only one- conspiring to call a halt to what can only be deemed inappropriate property price appreciation- and these factors are all coming to the fore at a similar time- so the effect of any one factor- could potentially be magnified beyond what anyone might expect. Vis-a-vis prices outside the Pale- rural prices have in fact recovered to a greater extent of their 2007 values- than did prices in Dublin (and are still growing- versus Dublin prices- which are falling). A turnaround in rural prices- in conjunction with a continuation of falls in Dublin- could have a significant impact- and is indeed, entirely foreseeable.
alastair wrote: » Prices are rather unlikely to drop 11% in the next five months. It's safe to say that we are indeed seeing average 2014 prices repeated this year.
The_Conductor wrote: » Prices are only up- thanks to continued increases (which have slowed and are now almost at a halt) outside of the greater Dublin area. Prices in the greater Dublin area- have been falling for 3 months now- and are accelerating. I agree- its unlikely we'll have a net 11% decrease in prices over the remainder of the year- but the way things are going- it could be a close run thing- its no longer an outside shot.
Floodzie wrote: » The better estate agents ask for a mortgage offer letter (not just the instant Approval in Principle you can get over the phone) before allowing an offer. Sad to see that even that wasn't enough and they couldn't draw down the funds in the end.
Floodzie wrote: » The better estate agents ask for a mortgage offer letter before allowing an offer.
alastair wrote: » Well, 2015 prices are, on average, up from 2014 prices so far, so that's not a great start to the prediction! I'd agree that some extravagant prices achieved in 2014 might be a while in coming around again, but have no doubt that they will - it's just a matter of time,
Riverireland wrote: » Reputable estate agent so down to the banks refusal.
Floodzie wrote: » All I see are asking price drops, across all house prices and types:http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin This doesn't bode well for the rest of the year. We will see by the end of 2015 whether house prices this year were actually up on 2014. Already I see lots of previously sale agreed houses coming back to market with 10% drops in prices.
