frazzledhome wrote: » But the 50 acres beside you is now gone, do you think you'll get the chance again? I love those reports and the weight that's put on them. Rabo buy no milk and therefore know nothing about where we are headed. This is some younglad out of college giving his opinion, means nothing. Milk will rise again and this talk of mid 20's while likely you'd think by lads it was going to last forever. Decisions shouldn't be made on 1 yrs price. I'm wondering where's the money that must have been made while price was 40c last year?
mf240 wrote: » Yip best time to get on the bandwagon is when it slows down for ya. Great time to do anything as great value around. ( ya might roof the whole yard yet) But still theres not much point stress testing loans at 30 when it will dip under it for a year every now and again. In tims case he told us he was only starting out and it didnt suit him and fair play to him for knowing his own mind.
frazzledhome wrote: » Jeepers in no way aimed at Tim, he can do his own business.
On price it's not SR single to stress test at lowest price but at 5 yr average. I'd be stress testing any loan in my costs of production. A big loan is typically 15yrs + so stressing 1 yr is not sensible
mf240 wrote: » I know that just saying Fair enough maybe im overly cautious.
Greengrass1 wrote: » At the walk today in Jim delahuntys they had a graph of his stock numbers for last 10 yrs and the milk price fir those yrs. It was a clear pattern that milk price had dropped every 3 yrs. 2006 2009 2012 and now we're in 2015 with a lowish milk price. coincidence? his average milk price fir last ten yrs was 34c
jaymla627 wrote: » The problem is now with the cost of inputs rising year on year their simply isn't the wriggle room anymore to cut costs enough to make up the shortfalls, all well and good saying milk is a three year cycle you just have to ride out the lows but when your primary inputs like fert/land rental/feed etc keep rising considerably you end up running to standstill
Timmaay wrote: » Main spanner in the works was a the bank refusing to loan for any term over 15years. This mean crippling capital repayments (which are after tax!), and basically a huge cash flow hole in the early years, when I would be expanding hard and not up to production yet, definitely no room for milk price at 26 cent in that plan ha, even for the short term. Another 50 acres might never ever show up beside me again, but equally so still loads of option around, other smaller adjoining blocks which could well either show up for sale or long term lease, equally so if say 200 acres popped up for long term rent afew miles away I wouldn't bat an eyelid about throwing a cheap 20 unit on it, pay a lad to milk 200 cows on it from Feb to Nov and house them back at home during the winter. Plenty of options, all I know is I haven't missed them 50 acres yet which we rented for 15years previously before they were sold.
Buford T. Justice V wrote: » I just looked up a note on my phone from this spring when an IFA economist gave a presentation on prices for the last decade. Output prices have risen 25% in the last 10 years. Input prices have risen 72% in the last 10 years.
mahoney_j wrote: » Anyone else on here at that walk today and if so impressions .ive been there a few times but not today as I'm away for a few days r&r .never on stand place yet(waiting for the open day!!!)but Jim is a guy I'd have out well in front of the chasing pack with him and lines of frazzled .really like jims operation as it has lots of similarities where I'd like to end up profit wise
Greengrass1 wrote: » Serious money spent between quota and infastructure. 400 k I think. Few of us were wondering if we spent to little in the yard
mahoney_j wrote: » Slowish steady expansion with cows plus facilities ,has served him well .long
Dawggone wrote: » Of course.... What land base? Acres/hectares (IMHO) are the new quotas. Quotas have set up many producers to take on the world....IF...they have enough hectares.
Greengrass1 wrote: » 75 ac around parlour 125 cows he did say quotas protected everyone. They limited how you high you could stock your milkers. Reckons well all have to get to understand the markets now and trends etc
Dawggone wrote: » The need to understand the markets is a given. Forgive me in saying that the least informed must be dairy. Not including beef in that! My prediction is that milk will go the same route as tillage ( maybe because I have experience of both). SCALE! Acres! Numbers of cows!! Will I be shouted down?
Greengrass1 wrote: » as the lads said there the same costs have increased 72% over last 10 yrs. Where will it be in 10 more yrs.
Dawggone wrote: » The big will have to get bigger, and the small will go. It is inevitable. This will happen. I'm willing to bet my farm on it. What I find a bit confusing is that Teagasc still cling to the mantra of the family, happy, la la land ....bliss. It is not possible. Quotas are gone. Forever.
alps wrote: » Don't bet the farm on it Dawggone, lots of life left in the Irish family farm system yet. Where else will you get free land and cheap labour? All of the expansion from here on must pay in full for the land and the labour....Even the comment from the farm walk today was that this progressive farmer was willing yo expand to where he is now, but was doubtful he would take the risk of going the next step involving paying staff and renting ground, where others make the money and he takes the risk... As far as I can see models like the greenfield, shinock in Bandon and their likes are just not throwing off enough profits to justify the risk to the initial capital investment. Gonna be hard to beat a moderately borrowed family farm that keeps it's system simple and efficient like we saw today.
Milked out wrote: » http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11470922&ref=nzhbiz_tw
jaymla627 wrote: » Crazy thing their is last year 7 dollars a kilo was offered and it was under subscribed very little sympthay for alot of lads out their who didn't lock in at that price and now are crying about going broke
