case885 wrote: » Can you explain how QE has softened the blow Dawg?
Dawggone wrote: » Possibly one of my better posts and not one thanks. Speaks volumes.
just do it wrote: » It's a petty we can't thank our own posts Teagasc studied this and concluded a small farmer is as capable of producing the same margin/ha as a large farmer and argued efficiency will be the deciding factor as to who sinks or swims. The concern with this study of course is it's playing to their own client base.
just do it wrote: » Sure wasn't GG posting recently about a guy with a great lifestyle milking only 5/6 cows?! (living in a country with slightly different living standards though )
mahoney_j wrote: » Agh dwag bit of a vulture in you!!,define a small farm??,been on lots of farm walks over last few years and a lot of guys if of seen milking up to say 100 cows are some of the most efficient operators you could ever meet.every acre counts,every animal counts every litre of milk counts .been on places too where lads just loaded on cows cause they had the land to and run absolute ****e operations efficiency will be key,scale would be great but not if managed correctly
Greengrass1 wrote: » Member in my dg off in China atm doing a Nuffield. Says there spending millions to try establish a dairy industry and have a huge appitite in European nz Australian and American milk and securing a high quality supply is all they talk about when you talk about ag with them
kowtow wrote: » It's a cardinal rule of those who trade markets for a living to absolutely ignore any journalist comment on market prices. Journalists are no better able to explain movements in prices than anybody else, nor - like the rest of us - are they equipped with a crystal ball to see the future. Typically news articles simply follow an agenda which reflects the exposure of the majority of their readers. It's very easy to see this bias in the article above. When prices are going up, they report the change in prices. However, when prices are falling they begin to report the "rate of fall" instead of the price. The headline is usually "are prices finally bottoming out?" or something similar. The mainstream Irish press used this tactic throughout the period of property price falls for similar reasons... many if not most of their readers are invested in property in some way and are exposed to falling property prices as opposed to rising prices. The GDT auction itself is not above a bit of massage. Around Christmas, when the market was "bottoming out" last time.. few people paid attention to the fact that there was a conscious decision to reduce the quantity of product offered at auction and the apparent turning point therefore occurred on very low volume... this tactic is as old as the hills, an easy way to force the hand of buyers waiting on the sidelines. What was significant about the winter / early spring prices was that when the buyers were flushed out they turned out to be smaller in number and nowhere near as keen as previous commentary suggested. Professional traders learn very early to watch how volume reacts to price, and take their clues from that. It is as well to remember that every piece of research ever written has to be paid for by a client of some description. Whilst there are countless organisations in the world (co-ops, processors, farmers - the entire dairy industry in fact) who need a case made for increased global demand and stronger prices over the long term to support their investment and expansion plans there is little if any obvious demand for commentary making the opposite case. For that reason at all a big pinch of salt is needed when looking at dairy market commentary. Its rare in any market to find an individual or organisation who doesn't 'talk his own book'.
mahoney_j wrote: » Also think this country and its family farms are a bit unique ,there's an awful (good or bad)atrachement to a praticular plot of land that doesn't seem to exist in other country's .there will certainly be more 300 to 1000 cow operations but they will be the minority's .the 90/140 ish single unit operations with the laying hen will be more the norm
jaymla627 wrote: » no farm could start up say a 40-50 cow from scratch at present prices and be viable even with the land base taken as free of charge
jaymla627 wrote: » But the small lad hasn't the scale to insulate himself from price shocks like we are seeing at the minute the big lad with say 90/ha even if his profit per ha is say halved our worse from say 1,000/ha to say 350/ha still comes out with over 30,000 euro which he will survive on, the small guy with 30/ha on the other hand in the same scenario has in our around 11,000 euro for his troubles and is up s**t Creek our simply goes on farm assit our has a laying hen/good sfp to tide him over.... I really think to be viable going forward you need to be producing well over 700,000litres/50,000 kilos of milk solids a labour unit, the small lads will of course have their place but in a free market environment with no other influencing factors no farm could start up say a 40-50 cow from scratch at present prices and be viable even with the land base taken as free of charge
Deepsouthwest wrote: » Brilliant post kowtow, well worth the half hr it took to read it!!
just do it wrote: » The small lad might be better insulated and not taking as big a hit to his income due to his other part-time job . There's more than one way to skin a cat....
Brown Podzol wrote: » ... at a positive farmers conference around 06/07
kowtow wrote: » Are they as rigorous & objective in their market analysis as their name suggests?[/ Trouser the fees, happy clappy, bright future and see you all again next year.
RightTurnClyde wrote: » Dawg, didn't you post your COP somewhere earlier, trying to remember, but wasn't labour cost an issue. Is labour cost an inefficiency of scale?
kowtow wrote: » Never understood this ridiculous childish reference to partners incomes in assessing the viabliity of a farm - in fact when I saw it in a Teagasc paper the other day and my first thought was that it was the processing industry managing farmers expectations. Perhaps in this time of low milk prices we should be insisting that all co-op employees have their salaries reduced by 50% of their wives incomes. While we're at it, we could require that they pay for shares and put money at risk before they are eligible for employment. Maintaining a 1.5 - 2 Million Euro asset which will or will not generate the minimum wage for 24/7 work over an extended cycle and is somehow dependent on a "laying hen" is not a business, it is a risky & expensive hobby. Instead of teaching kids at ag college to grow more grass why not just spruce them up and get 'em a better marriage?
jaymla627 wrote: » Talk is fairly cheap to be fair, they have access/their pick of dairy markets worldwide at prices/quality that they will never be able to produce milk at themselves but they are still persisting at establishing a dairy industry and subsidising it to the tune of 15-20 cent litre over world prices all the while importing 80% plus of the feed for these cows and using up water supplies the country simply does not have given its population size it's crazy
Dawggone wrote: » The "Family" Farm. That phrase needs to be abandoned. It's now a business. All protection is gone. Most on here have been handed an asset on a plate, worth 1million and much more. The new reality means expand or get out. The trick is to expand without diluting the asset. The family farm was, and it's well proven, the source of the best educated, upcoming leaders in business, politics etc. Those boarding schools were funded by the family farm. Then afterwards on to third level... How will this be done on 70 or 100 cows? How many arable acres would be needed? How many suckler cows?
Dawggone wrote: » The "Family" Farm. That phrase needs to be abandoned. It's now a business. All protection is gone. Most on here have been handed an asset on a plate, worth 1million and much more. The new reality means expand or get out. The trick is to expand without diluting the asset. The family farm was, and it's well proven, the source of the best educated, upcoming leaders in business, politics etc. Those boarding schools were funded by the family farm. Then afterwards on to third level... How will this be done on 70 or 100 cows? How many arable acres would be needed? How many suckler Back when my father was "given" the farm back when his mother suddenly died in 1995 he was left in a situation due to siblings/houses/ and shares been mined from the farm that give our take a few thousand he basically paid market value for the place, you should never underestimate how costly it is for certain farmers on the transfer of land when the siblings get the claws out
frazzledhome wrote: » "The family farm business" Don't for one minute underestimate the business acumen of a husband and wife team with 100 cows. Probably the most robust business unit in rural Ireland. Not only are they producing a real product as opposed to a service they are contributing greatly to the greater economy by holding education as highly as they do. All this is after tax btw Lets not derail thread by going down education route, I'm just pointing out that fact as you brought it up. On your point about the family farm being free I'd have to disagree as would many here who "got the farm". My hole, there was debt, siblings to educate and "fix up" a second house to be run. These farms are far from free. Perhaps if you were an only child who got a farm debt free. Theres more than one way to buy a business
mahoney_j wrote: » Excellent post frazzled ,as someone who inherited a farm from my parents lock stock and barrel I can associate To it.i worked off farm in a well paid job for over 10 years but always had more of an interest in the land than working off it for life.wouldnt swap those years for love nor money .travelled the world ,drank solid 3 night weekends and got to do things I'd probably never of done if I'd gone straight home.luckily I had a dad who was extremely progressive and open to new ideas and allowed me to implement them at his cost ,a lot proved a great success but some crashed and burned .nuts and bolts of farm were very good when I took over but I've invested in more roads ,reseeding ,parlour,.quota and around the yard to the tune of nearly 4 k per cow borrowed as well as been held back from. Getting into more cows by quota restrictions .im also paying my parents a set weekly fee in lieu of getting the farm which I in no way begrudge them.
Deepsouthwest wrote: » Similar story here, and it does bug me the way one poster constantly refers to the family farm as "the land I got from my father for nothing". Have been paying a weekly fee to my mum since my father died and I took over the place 13 yrs ago. Also had to help finance 4 younger siblings through second and third level education, and travelling etc for some of them! Got the farm signed over 4 yrs ago, but I expect the payments to my mum will go on indefinitely, which she is entitled too. Have 2 sisters getting married this yr, just wondering should I be giving them something more than a wedding present in lieu of my dad?
kevthegaff wrote: » Insightful stuff lads off to bed, had a lad for a few weeks so on my own again:-(, budgetcuts! Hopefully ill have a few pages to read over the brekkie in the morning wondering am i a big fella or small fella:-D
Dawggone wrote: » Ah Lads! Quotas haven't gone a couple of months and there is a smell of shyte off this thread. Welcome to the real world. Small farms will go to the wall and the big will get bigger. It's inevitable... Maybe not now as QE has softened the blow. But sooner or later, the small will go.
Deepsouthwest wrote: » it does bug me the way one poster constantly refers to the family farm as "the land I got from my father for nothing".
