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Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

delaval

24/6/16

Recently we saw three posters close their accounts over disagreements in the dairy threads. While there is a lot of frustration and discontent with current milk prices and the processing industry, the recent tendency for dairy threads to become tit-for-tat arguments isn’t tolerable for those not involved.

All farming sectors go through difficult periods and during such times there may need to be changes in how threads are moderated.

Dairy threads are going to be more closely monitored and subject to stricter moderation for a while.

To that end we won’t tolerate baiting of posters, constantly reviving old arguments, posters with agendas or crusading for a cause.

Whether it’s discussion of the business or politics of the dairy or other sectors, we expect civility and tolerance toward each other and other opinions as diversity of opinion is needed as a source of different ways of looking at a situation.

"The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress." - Joseph Joubert

Also please be aware that what you may post as light-hearted banter can be read totally differently by someone adversely affected by the subject matter and evoke a reaction you hadn’t intended.

The ‘Off-Season’ forum, and its anonymous posting, is available for anyone to chat about their situation.

The Mod Team.

I was wondering would it be a help if we posted our milk prices. I would hope that if someone is low that help could be given, on the other hand if high perhaps your tips could help us all.

I would suggest posting your processors base inc Vat for comparison
Post your Nett price for others to help or be helped
I think that solids should be included.
I suggest any seasonal/liquid contract price be excluded or seperated.

I feel that we as farmers do a lot of bitching about processor prices and rightly so IMO. I also feel that we should not worry about it as we can do nothing about base price but we certainly do something about it at farm level.

What do you all think?

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RightTurnClyde

trixi2011 wrote: »

Our milk company in uk sent a letter out this week saying that they are going to hold milk price at current levels untill sep at 21 p base at the moment

And what happens then?

frazzledhome

Last year price was at a record high. Where did the money made disappear to?

I hope people start to pay attention to this difficulty and not forget it. This is the real world we're in now.

Stop spending money regardless of price, target p&k, ph, roads, grass utilisation and forget adding cost to getting grub into cows.

Plan your SR and stock accordingly no need for machines. Breed good strong durable cows and close your ears if someone mentions yield.

Yield comes with breeding and grazing with targeted supplement aswell as compact calving.

All the sheds and machines can't do it. Tell the next sales rep to return when price hits 38c and if you can manage till then show him the road.

The price WILL recover and that's a guarantee. We cannot predict just when.

degetme

Normally sell in calf heifers in the autumn. With the way milk price is going and the high beef price would one be better off shorting the breeding season to nine weeks and sell empties in the autumn instead of the replacements

trixi2011

Our milk company in uk sent a letter out this week saying that they are going to hold milk price at current levels untill sep at 21 p base at the moment

Greengrass1

kevthegaff wrote: »

Its qlot tougher on new entrants that are heavily borrowed trying to find theyre feet, ontop shares to be paid and no top up. Remember in 09 second year in, tough going!

Sure is.
DG has someone coming in from glanbia to talk to them about shared superlevy etc. 80% new entrants. Tough going for next 6 mths

kevthegaff

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Jeez I'm very depressed now after reading this thread. Think as soon as grass is back on track no more meal for my girls

Its qlot tougher on new entrants that are heavily borrowed trying to find theyre feet, ontop shares to be paid and no top up. Remember in 09 second year in, tough going!

kevthegaff

Cmon kowtow give us your prediction, we need some good news!

Greengrass1

Jeez I'm very depressed now after reading this thread. Think as soon as grass is back on track no more meal for my girls

slippy wicket

Finally got on and checked may milk.
3.49 P 3.7 F
29.55 cpl inc vat , brought up to 30.5 cpl with co-op top up.
Exactly the same as last month.

frazzledhome

jaymla627 wrote: »

They are more then likely re doing statements and deducting superlevy monies seen as the contact issues weren't sorted in time by the department re the superlevy payment scheme.....

Is this the same for all processors? Dept running scared of this as big Phil dropped a bombshell saying each govt is responsible for s levy

frazzledhome

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

You can feck off!

That's Kerrys spot and they aim to keep it:pac:

Standing on GII shoulders

Buford T. Justice XIX

mahoney_j wrote: »

Worse than that Kev,price back over 2.5 cent per litre to 29.37 cent vat inc.collection charge dropped and share up postponed whilst markets are weak.was nice looking down on everyone whilst it lasted.hopefully we won't know revert to our usual position of footing up milk price league.worring times ahead now,hopefully all Arrabawn suppliers with eye off ball re what's going on in the coop will now sit up and take note and start putting pressure on board and chief.

You can feck off!

That's Kerrys spot and they aim to keep it:pac:

kowtow

Milked out wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/is-the-global-dairy-trade-starting-to-stabilise/

I'd say it'll be mother nature who could have the biggest say yet in getting prices back up. Anybody know what things are like stateside grain price and yield wise?

It's a cardinal rule of those who trade markets for a living to absolutely ignore any journalist comment on market prices. Journalists are no better able to explain movements in prices than anybody else, nor - like the rest of us - are they equipped with a crystal ball to see the future.

Typically news articles simply follow an agenda which reflects the exposure of the majority of their readers.

It's very easy to see this bias in the article above. When prices are going up, they report the change in prices. However, when prices are falling they begin to report the "rate of fall" instead of the price. The headline is usually "are prices finally bottoming out?" or something similar. The mainstream Irish press used this tactic throughout the period of property price falls for similar reasons... many if not most of their readers are invested in property in some way and are exposed to falling property prices as opposed to rising prices.

The GDT auction itself is not above a bit of massage. Around Christmas, when the market was "bottoming out" last time.. few people paid attention to the fact that there was a conscious decision to reduce the quantity of product offered at auction and the apparent turning point therefore occurred on very low volume... this tactic is as old as the hills, an easy way to force the hand of buyers waiting on the sidelines. What was significant about the winter / early spring prices was that when the buyers were flushed out they turned out to be smaller in number and nowhere near as keen as previous commentary suggested. Professional traders learn very early to watch how volume reacts to price, and take their clues from that.

It is as well to remember that every piece of research ever written has to be paid for by a client of some description. Whilst there are countless organisations in the world (co-ops, processors, farmers - the entire dairy industry in fact) who need a case made for increased global demand and stronger prices over the long term to support their investment and expansion plans there is little if any obvious demand for commentary making the opposite case. For that reason at all a big pinch of salt is needed when looking at dairy market commentary.

Its rare in any market to find an individual or organisation who doesn't 'talk his own book'.

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

Arrabawn down 2c

Worse than that Kev,price back over 2.5 cent per litre to 29.37 cent vat inc.collection charge dropped and share up postponed whilst markets are weak.was nice looking down on everyone whilst it lasted.hopefully we won't know revert to our usual position of footing up milk price league.worring times ahead now,hopefully all Arrabawn suppliers with eye off ball re what's going on in the coop will now sit up and take note and start putting pressure on board and chief.

whelan2

jaymla627 wrote: »

They are more then likely re doing statements and deducting superlevy monies seen as the contact issues weren't sorted in time by the department re the superlevy payment scheme.....

they are up on line now

whelan2

slippy wicket wrote: »

Still no joy on Glanbia connect or no money in bank account yet.
Very poor form.

money normally not in til the 18th but its annoying that statements arent up

jaymla627

slippy wicket wrote: »

Still no joy on Glanbia connect or no money in bank account yet.
Very poor form.

They are more then likely re doing statements and deducting superlevy monies seen as the contact issues weren't sorted in time by the department re the superlevy payment scheme.....

slippy wicket

Still no joy on Glanbia connect or no money in bank account yet.
Very poor form.

Milked out

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/is-the-global-dairy-trade-starting-to-stabilise/

I'd say it'll be mother nature who could have the biggest say yet in getting prices back up. Anybody know what things are like stateside grain price and yield wise?

kevthegaff

Arrabawn down 2c

keep going

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Are those price drops set in stone? Any idea if it'll stop at that? Are the coops propping up at that price, or is it market return price? The rest of this yr could really sort the men from the boys

No subsidising at coop level but there maybe at carbery but I would debate that one with tbem too, it all depends how you do the sums.cheese isnt too bad but whey powder is on the floor.the june price will be decided next month but they were looking for 2 cent for may so more than likely it will happen.as for more globally china not coming back to the market in a hurry as they seem to have rebuilt their own supply so people are thinking theres more left in this drop im afraid.id say it will be easy to talk to us after this

kevthegaff

Having bought land, built sheds, babies etc I'm tightening the belt from now on! No looking at the holiday thread:-)

kevthegaff

I have a feeling it will be a very very slow recovery but hope I'm wrong!!

kevthegaff

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Are those price drops set in stone? Any idea if it'll stop at that? Are the coops propping up at that price, or is it market return price? The rest of this yr could really sort the men from the boys

Looking at the last exchange things seem to be slowing down a little, euro will get weaker also, Id say co ops are propping to a certain extent, hopefully we're near the bottom...

Deepsouthwest

keep going wrote: »

West cork down another cent with another for june milk, thank god for weak euro worth about 3 to 4 cent a litre

Are those price drops set in stone? Any idea if it'll stop at that? Are the coops propping up at that price, or is it market return price? The rest of this yr could really sort the men from the boys

keep going

West cork down another cent with another for june milk, thank god for weak euro worth about 3 to 4 cent a litre

frazzledhome

stretch film wrote: »

Exclusivity rather than priority ???
Thought so .
Possibility that not enough shares cancelled .€5 might not tease out enough imo.
The " shortfall" will require a share issue over those cancelled diluting existing shareholdings to some degree.

Poorly explained at info meetings

Shares will be issued. There'll be an over lap with bought with others cancelled as they come in.

Not sure if exclusive

stretch film

frazzledhome wrote: »

Share trading will reopen once "spinout"is completed with priority to new entrants and existing unshared suppliers.

Exclusivity rather than priority ???
Thought so .
Possibility that not enough shares cancelled .€5 might not tease out enough imo.
The " shortfall" will require a share issue over those cancelled diluting existing shareholdings to some degree.

Poorly explained at info meetings

frazzledhome

Share trading will reopen once "spinout"is completed with priority to new entrants and existing unshared suppliers.

jaymla627

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Can't understand why new entrants have such an issue with having to share up to supply milk to their chooses co-op.
Just out of a partnership here, so have to buy a lot of shares, which I have no issue with, having already bought nearly €10k worth of shares a few yrs ago due to a depopulation that kept me out of milk production at a time when shares were given out based on milk supplied.
Why should established farmers who funded the development of these coops over the yrs just let in new entrants to now use their facilities to manufacture and market their milk at no extra cost?

No issue whatsoever, but can't understand why this share issue thing wasn't flagged last year and mechanisms put in place that suppliers who werent shared up where given the opertiunity to do so and thus avail of price supports this year.
Our maybe they might have the decency to issue shares to suppliers and start deducting said monies for shares when milk price rebounds goes above say 30 cent a litre, down 5k at present on april/may milk and with milk price only going one way it would of want a long way towards filling a few gaps that combined with superlevy fines it's going to leave us working of a very abysmal base price for the year with a lot of other lads in the same boat...
Luckily not solely reliant on dairying here but lads who are with big borrowings on top of superlevy fines are going to be under fair pressure to keep the wolf from the door and this share issue isn't going to help them one bit