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TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

Trade idea's, technical, fundamentals and anything trade related.

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Fizman

Fizman wrote: »

Another incredible day in DAX land. 350 points bottom to top.

Think that trend will continue tomorrow after a possible initial fade.

For ever odd wrote: »

Out of interest, are you trading the DAX for long?

Can you give us a reason why you think that? I'm not agreeing/disagreeing with you, just curious.

I'm trading it around 2 months, so in the grand scheme of things I'm a novice.

Over the last few weeks, the DAX has been following the Bund very closely. On Thursday the Bund rallied, and the DAX exploded upwards. Not to mention that Thursday / Friday were very quiet news days, so there was a lot pointing towards another green day. On top of that was the fact that it was just looking very cheap in general.

However, much like recent weeks, the Dax continued it's unpredictability by having a big fall, even though the Bund rallied a lot. I got the initial morning fade right, and there was 50 points to be had there, but got bitten throughout the afternoon.

I had a very nice fade trade this morning (half of the monthly target in one trade), and hope so again tomorrow as the next big scheduled Eurozone news isn't until 10 am. With such volatility, I'm placing emphasis on smaller stops than usual. It's very much a product right now where you keep you losers small, but when you get on a winner you could be looking at 3 digits within 30 - 60 mins.

It'll be interesting to see if Wall St opening today at 2.30 pm echos this mornings initial rally, as it has more often than not mirrored eu openings over the past few weeks.

For ever odd

If you pull up a daily chart of the DAX, and draw trend lines from it recent peak, you will see its in a downwards channel. Its currently at the top end of the channel, with 20 ema and 50 ema sitting just above the channel. For me a daily close above all three would be positive, but the DAX been the DAX I would precede with caution. Failure to break above the upper channel might suggest a visit back to the lower channel line.

Does anyone have any suggestions of a free interactive charting service, that we can all work off to post technical ideas.
If so I will post the idea on the chart.

EDIT
Closed above the channel and 20 ema, it went up and kissed the 50 ema( closed 10points or so off it). Technicals primed, it's about the fundamentals now! Next day or two could show the way.

For ever odd

Read Janet's speech twice now, and it's obvious that there is going to major swings on certain data points when they actually raise interest rates!

For ever odd

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending May 19th, 2015.

Key Quotes:

"Gold specs were quick to shift shorts into longs, as weak US data pushed prices above the $1,225/oz top of range."

"Silver specs were also quick to follow suit, cutting large levels of short positioning."

"Platinum specs saw growth in European auto sales as a signal to trim shorts even further."

"Palladium specs added slightly to shorts, perhaps playing the spread with platinum, as China/US auto sales have lagged Europe growth."

"Copper specs slightly adjusted positions but remained net long, as seeds of China growth return."
21:47 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for week ending Tuesday, May 19th.

Key Quotes:

"A reduction in USD bull bets continued for another week in the CFTC data through May 19th. Aggregate implied USD positions eased to USD27.0bn from nearly USD30bn in the prior week, which is the lowest level since August 2014."

"Not surprisingly, the reduction on USD longs came off the back of pared net EUR shorts of about 10.6k contracts to –168k but is likely only temporary given the 4-big figure move lower since Tuesday. Similarly, net GBP shorts were pared back this week by 7.4k contracts to –23.4k. Notwithstanding last week’s move, the trend in the latter has been for a gradual short cover as markets should focus on improving macro fundamentals and prospects of a BoE hike early next year rather than EU referendum concerns (which we think are overstated)."

"The most interesting development in the CFTC report however, was that Canada has recorded its first net long position since September of last year, and stand at 4.3k contracts an increase of 8.3k from the previous week. The change in positions was largely observed within the leverage fund community. But as we noted here, we advocate long USDCAD positions as we think the BoC is overstating growth prospects in the second half of the year."

"A similar dynamic occurred in the AUD where net longs grew by 2.8k contracts to 7.3k, the largest since September of last year. Meanwhile, traders are now small net short the NZD at –2.2k."

"Net JPY shorts were little changed as traders pared back their positions by 1.6k contracts to –22k. Net MXN shorts were increased by 4.3k contracts to –31.3k in 23k contracts this week to –27k, but this is a relatively modest amount given the amount of volatility in positions observed over recent weeks."
21:21 - FXStreet

Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending May 19th, 2015.

Key Quotes:

"Crude oil specs dismissed three consecutive weeks of US inventory withdraws and focused on the global over-supply narrative, increasing long WTI contract positions more so than shorts."

"Natural gas specs increased long positions and reduced short positions contrary to large inventory injections and historically average storage levels."

"Gasoline and heating oil specs followed changes inventories reducing net long exposure in the former and reducing net short exposure in the latter."
22:05 - FXStreet

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Read Janet's speech twice now, and it's obvious that there is going to major swings on certain data points when they actually raise interest rates!

It has the attributes of an American 'win' movie but with an underlying current that something is not right. They have to do this be it 15 points or 25 to prove a point. Stayed mostly out this week, less is more. Thought about you DAX players when Coeuré drew the line.

For ever odd

I see the dollar index is floating around the 96.39 level that I mentioned on the "dollar" thread and the Euro is in or around the same level it was at the time also(11035 was the high that day) This time around they coming from the opposite direction. Quite day today with UK and US holiday's, so next few days should let us know if the dollar bull is back.
Thoughts?

dasdog

Found that to be a tough week. Two massive 1.10 spots driving the Euro interfered on Friday but the decisions to go against the tide from Wednesday hurt. Numbers game this week. Very turbulent, still don't believe the US hype but the majority does.

For ever odd

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - week ending Tuesday, May 26th for the FX market.

Key Quotes:

"IMM data show speculative and CTA accounts boosting their aggregate exposure to the long USD trade this week by a little less than USD4.5 bn overall as far as exposure to the major currencies is concerned. This is the first rise in aggregate USD long positioning (to a total of USD31.4bn) since late March but—for once—the driver of the positioning change was not the EUR."

"Net JPY shorts nearly tripled in total this week as the JPY slid sharply (spot USD/JPY rose above 122 Tuesday, the last day of the reporting period). Investors and speculators lifted net JPY shorts from –22k in the May 19th week to a total of –62k, in what amounts to the biggest bet against the JPY since February."

"Net EUR shorts were little changed on the week at –171k (from –168k), ditto for net GBP shorts (-25.5k contracts from –23.3k) and net CHF longs (+8.3k from +9.4k)."

"Positioning in the commodity currencies remains quite flat overall."

"Net AUD longs eased modestly (+6.4k this week) and specs continued to build net CAD longs (a little surprising in the face of a 1.5% loss in the CAD over the reporting week) to the point that the modest +7.3k position represents the biggest bull bet on the CAD since September."

"Net NZD shorts positions doubled to –5k this week and, considering the Kiwi’s awful performance this week, should grow more.
21:38 - FXStreet
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the Week Ending May 26th, 2015 for metals & petroleum products.

Key Quotes:

"Metals:

Specs aggressively cut their long exposure and beefed up short gold position, as prices trended lower amid perceptions the Fed is ready to tighten.

In sharp contrast, silver investors positioned modestly net long as price approached technical support levels.

Negative sentiment radiating from London, reduced deficit estimates, and demand concerns prompted specs to increase platinum short exposure.

Perceived more favourable fundamentals convinced investors to cover their short palladium exposure and increase longs.

Copper specs aggressively reduced their net long holdings, as the US dollar rose and China economic data pointed to lackluster demand for the time being.

Petroleum products:

WTI crude oil investors recently edged modestly bullish while reducing open interest, as short positions were decreased more than long positions, ahead of the upcoming OPEC meeting."

Natural gas sentiment turned significantly bearish, flipping from slightly long to net short exposure, as outsized storage injections weighed on the market during the low weather-demand shoulder season.

"Petroleum product markets soured, reducing long net positions and increasing net short positions for gasoline and heating oil, respectively. This was contrary to record implied gasoline demand reported in the most recent EIA report."
22:25 - FXStreet

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Found that to be a tough week. Two massive 1.10 spots driving the Euro interfered on Friday but the decisions to go against the tide from Wednesday hurt. Numbers game this week. Very turbulent, still don't believe the US hype but the majority does.

Defining week ahead

Non farm payrolls
Opec meeting
Greece

Each on their own have to be respected and are market movers, but the macro effects of all three together are what will shape the rest of the year in my opinion.
Figure it out and there is big money to made.

dasdog

Three 50m EUR positions triggered the squeeze today apparently. Asian session always seems EUR negative (without the rumours/noise) so it will be interesting to see if its dipped in the morning. Sets up some tempting short positions though going against the common currency is risky. Opec are in control enough to keep shale production out and themselves happy from what I've seen. It doesn't seem to be making news compared to the politics and payroll. NFP should come in there or thereabouts I'd say.

Friday is going to be mental. I'd like to go in with powder dry and follow.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Defining week ahead

Non farm payrolls
Opec meeting
Greece

Each on their own have to be respected and are market movers, but the macro effects of all three together are what will shape the rest of the year in my opinion.
Figure it out and there is big money to made.

Well, is anyone trading any (or all) of these events tomorrow?

Johnerr

For ever odd wrote: »

Well, is anyone trading any (or all) of these events tomorrow?

Looks like oil stocks took a plunge today in anticipation that OPEC will announce an increase in production.

Thoughts?

For ever odd

Johnerr wrote: »

Looks like oil stocks took a plunge today in anticipation that OPEC will announce an increase in production.
Thoughts?

Alot of stocks took a plunge today, maybe on the Greece factor. Interestingly so did gold, which is normally one of the go to place's in times of panic... What does that tell us?
Anyhow what is your plan on oil?

dasdog

Looks like Greece have delayed.

I'll move Cable and AUD stops lower for tomorrow.

dasdog

GBP & AUD shorts closed and watching from the safety of a spectator now. Avoiding the risk, it was a good week which doesn't need to be spoiled. Average hourly earnings has barely been mentioned anywhere but could play its part. I'll jump in after the noise if the direction looks certain.

Best of luck.

For ever odd

Same as, had a great week also.I Will sit and watch the spike for the first five minutes or so and if some of my levels come in, I might get involved, All depends what way the data comes out.

Have a good one!

dasdog

Some very impressive figures. Even the unemployment +0.1% appears to have a valid reasoning (increased market participation and oil sector losses). Shorted AUD, GBP and went long against JPY after the event though latency here gave me "the price has changed too much" on my first attempted buy against Yen. Profit taken, nothing open. Have a good weekend.

For ever odd

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered findings for the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, June 2nd.

Key Quotes:

"IMM data continue to show an increase in USD positions with aggregate exposure totalling an estimated USD36.4bn—a rise of USD5bn from last week. The increase came mostly at the expense of the JPY and AUD. Net JPY shorts grew for a second consecutive week by 23.5k contracts to –85.7k with another significant shift by leveraged accounts. Net JPY shorts are now at its lowest level since the start of the year and it raises the risk that we could see a material break higher in USD/JPY towards 127 and possibly even 135."

"There was a significant shift in positioning in the AUD where there was a near 20k contract swing from net longs last week to net AUD short of –13.3k contracts. The shift can probably be tied to positioning ahead of the June 2nd RBA meeting where investors looking for an easing bias were on the wrong end of this trade. Instead, AUD/NZD longs look appealing ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting where we expect a dovish tone to emerge. Indeed, net NZD shorts grew to –10.5k contracts from –5.1k, which is the largest on record."

"Elsewhere, investors returned to a net CAD short position after a two week hiatus with a swing of 8.4k contracts to –1.0k. Thematically, we continue to like short CAD positions. In MXN, net shorts grew to –45k (from –32.5k)."

"Positioning in GBP and CHF remained unchanged at –25.7k and +8.4k respectively."
21:08 GMT - FXStreet
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered findings for the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, June 2nd.

"Gold investors played both sides of exposure, growing longs and shorts in roughly equally measure. The longs saw the gold market as ripe for a move higher, while the shorts were focusing on Fed rate hike risks."

"Silver specs increased short exposure by cutting longs and growing shorts, as price entered technically dangerous territory at time the dollar was strengthening, demand was in doubt and rates looked set to move higher.

"Platinum specs build further record short positioning, as European auto sales took a breather in May."

"Palladiums specs built more shorts taking greater cues from Fed tightening expectations rather than the new highs in US auto sales."

"A lack of China news/data and Greek default concerns, along with OPEC risk, saw base metals encounter a pullback—copper longs covered."

"WTI specs increased net long crude oil exposure into the OPEC meeting at the end of this week, adding to long positions and cutting shorts, in the hopes that the group would cut their quota."

"Large storage injections have prompted natural gas specs to heavily add to short positions."

"Gasoline specs followed WTI by adding long positions and cutting shorts, while investors short heating oil took profits before inventories swelled last week."
22:03 GMT - FXStreet

For ever odd

Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, June 9th for FX.

Key Quotes:

"IMM data for the week through June 9th show investors boosting aggregate long USD exposure versus the major currencies for a third consecutive week after a steady reduction in the broader USD bull bet evident here since late March. The overall implied positioning of CTA and leveraged players climbed to USD 37.2bn through June 9th, the highest since late April, from USD 36.4bn in the previous week."

"Just for a change, the bigger bull bet was not related to positioning in the EUR. The JPY drove the lion’s share of the swing in positioning. Investors jumped on the weak JPY bandwagon as spot USDJPY moved above 125; net short JPY positions rose to –116k contracts this week, from –86k in the June 2nd reporting period. Following the spate of verbal intervention from the BoJ, however, we suspect that freshly-minted shorts especially are being squeezed by the rebound in the JPY and may be squeezed further near-term. Positioning may be less robust next week."

"By contrast, net short EUR positioning was reduced to –138k contracts this week, down from –165k in the prior week’s report. Net GBP shorts were little changed at –28k this week, ditto for net CHF longs which rose 2k contracts to +10k."

"Investors have been whipped around by the swings in the CAD over the past few weeks—establishing the first, modest net long in the CAD since last September in mid-May, only to see the CAD slip back, and boosting net CAD shorts in the latest reporting week, only to see the CAD rally. Net CAD shorts rose from –1k in the June 2nd reporting week to –14k in the latest but this is not the sort of price action that will boost investor conviction about positioning; quite the reverse, in fact."

"Net AUD shorts were little changed at –14k in the June 9th week and while net NZD shorts rose only modestly to –11.7k contracts, speculative accounts have steadily built the largest bet against the Kiwi in a number of years over the past month. Given this week’s RBNZ rate cut and a clear official desire for the NZD to weaken, IMM players are getting on board the short trade aggressively. Net short MXN positions nudged up 6k to –51k this week."

chompdown

Silver going to rocket this week in case any traders have any positions...

I went long on Thursday 4,000 oz ($15.95) with a stop at $15.50.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6915/here-we-go-again-another-silver-short-sqeeze-looms

Will close my half my position around $16.95.

Simples.

arrowloopboy

chompdown wrote: »

Silver going to rocket this week in case any traders have any positions...

I went long on Thursday 4,000 oz ($15.95) with a stop at $15.50.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6915/here-we-go-again-another-silver-short-sqeeze-looms

Will close my half my position around $16.95.

Simples.

I like the confidence ,hope it pans out for ya.

Did you use a spread bet ?

chompdown

Cheers. Plus500 actually...

moneymad

chompdown wrote: »

Silver going to rocket this week in case any traders have any positions...

I went long on Thursday 4,000 oz ($15.95) with a stop at $15.50.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6915/here-we-go-again-another-silver-short-sqeeze-looms

Will close my half my position around $16.95.

Simples.

I don't understand your trade at all.
Wouldn't you go long at 15.30? Surely the probabilitty is higher in that area.
Interesting observation on that website though.

arrowloopboy

chompdown wrote: »

Cheers. Plus500 actually...

Yes,
but with what kind of instrument ?

chompdown

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Yes,
but with what kind of instrument ?

I just bought 4,000 ounces at spot price with leverage of 152:1. CFD. I already had an old Plus500 account.

Do you use spread betting? Who would you recommend?

arrowloopboy

chompdown wrote: »

I just bought 4,000 ounces at spot price with leverage of 152:1. CFD. I already had an old Plus500 account.

Do you use spread betting? Who would you recommend?

You have to pay cgt on cfds ,its a no brainer
I've used IG Index for the past five years ,with zero issues,and no bullsh1t ,i'd highly recommend them .

For ever odd

Ok guys, I've gotta ask, where is the money hiding?

Now I know we are coming to quarter/half year close, but where is the money going? Is it a case of wait and see and keep cash or is been moved somewhere else?

arrowloopboy

For ever odd wrote: »

Ok guys, I've gotta ask, where is the money hiding?

Now I know we are coming to quarter/half year close, but where is the money going? Is it a case of wait and see and keep cash or is been moved somewhere else?

I did something really simple over the past 3 weeks,i closed 3/4 of the positions in my account ,which is made up of 90% ftse 100/250 companies ,and shorted the sh1t out of the ftse100 at 7000.00,i'll be keeping the powder dry until the Autumn !

Condatis

I usually trade only on ISM or London, However:

An ISM company that I bought years ago migrated to NASDAQ and the shares were converted to ADRs and I stopped even looking at them. I pulled the Share Certificate out last month and gave it to my broker to sell.

That's almost done - but there's a charge for a "Medallion Stamp" which comes to €400 and that took some of the good out of the sale and came as a surprise - though I went ahead away.

I had not factored in that charge - does that usually happen on the NASDAQ? Could I have avoided it by having a Crest Account?

arrowloopboy

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I did something really simple over the past 3 weeks,i closed 3/4 of the positions in my account ,which is made up of 90% ftse 100/250 companies ,and shorted the sh1t out of the ftse100 at 7000.00,i'll be keeping the powder dry until the Autumn !

Closed 3/5s yesterday morning at 6635.00 (it reversed by 100 points at 6624.00) this was luck not skill:P,for a tidy 365 points, :pac:EEE.
Waiting for another decent rally ,to mill into it again !