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Cork South Central in Next General Election

Brussels Sprout

The next general election is roughly a year away (or possibly sooner if an early one is called). Cork South Central will be reduced from a 5 seat to a 4 seat constituency which should really makes things interesting

The current TDs are:

Micheál Martin (FF)
Ciarán Lynch (Lab)
Simon Coveney (FG)
Jerry Buttimer (FG)
Michael McGrath (FF)

Martin and Coveney would have been the best known of the group back in 2011 but the other three have all been getting their names out there in this Dáil.

So, who's going to lose out?
Will Sinn Fein's high polls translate to their first ever seat in the constituency?
Will Micheál Martin get elected on the first count for the 5th election in a row?
How many candidates will the major parties be running?
Will the Greens or Renua get a look in?
Will any independent anti-water charges candidate have a chance?

At this early stage I'd guess that it'll be Martin, Coveney the SF candidate (Chris O' Leary?) and then a toss up between Buttimer and McGrath for the final spot.

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Balmed Out

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So, who's going to lose out?

Will Sinn Fein's high polls translate to their first ever seat in the constituency?

Will Micheál Martin get elected on the first count for the 5th election in a row?

How many candidates will the major parties be running?

Will the Greens or Renua get a look in?

Will any independent anti-water charges candidate have a chance?

At this early stage I'd guess that it'll be Martin, Coveney the SF candidate (Chris O' Leary?) and then a toss up between Buttimer and McGrath for the final spot.

Id guess Martin, Coveney are definitely in.

I think FG would drop a candidate leaving Deirdre Clune in Europe and making Buttimer safer however of all the candidates the bounday changes are going to affect him the most, a general rising tide for FG may be enough to save him.

Lynch was number three in first prefernece last time round but as the junior partner in government Labour may go down a bit especially to SF who apparently have a guy in his mid 20's replacing O'Leary - http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/sinn-f%C3%A9in-select-donnchadh-o-laoghaire-to-run-in-cork-south-central-1.2140432
Id wonder would his age be enough to stop Sinn fein gaining a seat?

McGrath is very popular in Carrigaline and passage and gets a lot of coverage on Tv due to being FF spokesperson on finance but will be relying on Martin to pull him through.

ReNua getting a look in is doubtful unless someone of Eddie Hobbs stature runs in which case id say Buttimer will be in trouble.

Pitcairn

I'd say Ciaran Lynch is gone and it'll be between Buttimer and Sinn Féin's O Laoire for the fourth seat.

calnand

A big change as well, will come from deciding to put parts of Glasheen and Bishopstown into the Cork North Central constituency. Jerry Buttimer in particular will be losing a lot of voters from that area as a result.

54kroc

calnand wrote: »

A big change as well, will come from deciding to put parts of Glasheen and Bishopstown into the Cork North Central constituency. Jerry Buttimer in particular will be losing a lot of voters from that area as a result.

I didn't know that, what was the thinking behind it?

mikeym

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael always dominate the Cork South Central constituency :mad:

calnand

Mainly so that they could get rid one TD for the constituency and not affect the national population to TD ratio of 29,040:1. There's a small bit more info about it here, http://www.constituency-commission.ie/docs/Constit-Rep-2012-Chap-5.1.pdf

KCAccidental

I was very surprised that Chris O'Leary didn't get the nod in the end. He had a very strong result last time out and has a great local base in Mahon. While I think O'Laoighre will probably get on the tide of SF, having a young inexperienced guy might go against them.

overmantle

It's too soon to call this one. There's many a slip between cup and lip.... A week is a long time in politics and all of that. One would imagine that Coveney and Martin should be safe but nothing is certain. McGrath is popular also. Buttimer has a high profile, Ó Laoire could do it. There may also be one or two surprise candidates in the constituency, running on particular issues..... We'll have a better idea in another year (assuming the Government goes full term>

towelly

2 FF, 2 FG. End of story.

clerk

Pitcairn wrote: »

I'd say Ciaran Lynch is gone and it'll be between Buttimer and Sinn Féin's O Laoire for the fourth seat.

that will be it l'd say, but l hadn't even heard of O'Laoire never mind seen him or met him. Just protest alone won't get him the gig. Would want to seriously get himself into gear so at the moment l'd say Buttimer would be the favourite for the 4th seat.

clerk

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So, who's going to lose out?
Lynch.

Will Sinn Fein's high polls translate to their first ever seat in the constituency?
Possibly, but wouldn't put money on it.

Will Micheál Martin get elected on the first count for the 5th election in a row?
More or less.

How many candidates will the major parties be running?
Best off running 2 and 2.

Will the Greens or Renua get a look in?
No and no.

Will any independent anti-water charges candidate have a chance?
Traditionally independents have made no impact in South Central, there is no realistic anti-water candidate, presumably SF will hover up any protest vote.

Brussels Sprout

Looks like Dan Boyle has ruled himself out of the running (probably for the best really)

KCAccidental

considering he failed completely in the locals, not a shock. Better for the Greens that those tainted by government are set aside now.

Outkast_IRE

KCAccidental wrote: »

considering he failed completely in the locals, not a shock. Better for the Greens that those tainted by government are set aside now.

The Greens, will never get my vote the new car tax system they brought in when in government was the worst environmental idea in decades. I am all for reducing CO2 emissions, but by forcing people over to diesels it has resulted in far more harmful emissions being released.

mikeym

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

The Greens, will never get my vote the new car tax system they brought in when in government was the worst environmental idea in decades. I am all for reducing CO2 emissions, but by forcing people over to diesels it has resulted in far more harmful emissions being released.

Richer people pay less in car tax than poorer people who pay more for there car tax(older cars).

Just look at the Carlow/Kilkenny bye election, the same will happen in Cork South Central.

Sinn Fein dont have a hope.

KCAccidental

This is the Greens candidate in South Central. Will be interesting to see young faces on election posters again, O' Laoighre from Sinn Fein is quite young as well.

jank

Is there enough votes for 2 FF in a 4 seater. Could FG still get two.
Id say 1 FF, 1 FG and the last two FF/FG/Sinn Fein will fight it out with one losing out.
No on else will get a look in.

Brussels Sprout

jank wrote: »

Could FG still get two.

I think a big issue for FG all around the country is that they're going to be losing a % of their vote to Renua who would appeal to their core voters more than FF or any of the other parties. They got 9.5% of the 1st preferences in last week's bi-election for example.
Renua have said they're aiming to run candidates in every constituency. They probably won't win more than a handful of seats themselves but this could mean cases of FG winning 1 seat where previously they may have won 2 such as possibly in Cork South Central.

KCAccidental

Confirmed so far:

Martin (FF)
McGrath (FF)
Coveney (FG)
Buttimer (FG)
O'Laoighre (SF)
Bogue (GP)
O'Connell (PBP)
Lynch (Lab)

(Lynch is an assumption on the fact he will be defending his seat)

KCAccidental

Confirmed so far:

Martin (FF)
McGrath (FF)
Coveney (FG)
Buttimer (FG)
O'Laoighre (SF)
Bogue (GP)
O'Connell (PBP)
Lynch (Lab)

(Lynch is an assumption on the fact he will be defending his seat)

corkonion

I could see many current labour td's retiring just before the next general election "to concentrate on local politics" as realistically many of them will be eliminated after the first count.
Coveney and Martin are obviously favorites to take the first two seats, I think Buttimers profile has diminished this term and the change in the south central demographic could hurt him, McGrath has looked and sounded very astute and capable this term but even though he was elected at the height of the anti FF era, I think he will struggle more this time.
So for me its Martin (ff) Coveney (fg) probably sinn fein next and Buttimer and McGrath fighting it out for the last, with McGrath sneaking over the line as Renua will dilute the fg vote a little.

Poulgorm

McGrath is safe.

Martin will struggle

Ludo

Poulgorm wrote: »

McGrath is safe.

Martin will struggle

LOL. Are you serious? Why on earth would Martin be in trouble? He has a very good chance of being next Taoiseach (coz people are stupid and will vote FF again). People will vote for him because of this. There is no way on earth the FF leader and potential taoiseach will not be elected in Cork South Central.
It does suck to be in the only constituency in Ireland with two FF TDs. Unfortunately they will probably both keep their seats. God know why people vote for McGrath. He is a complete bluffer.

mikeym

Ludo wrote: »

LOL. Are you serious? Why on earth would Martin be in trouble? He has a very good chance of being next Taoiseach (coz people are stupid and will vote FF again). People will vote for him because of this. There is no way on earth the FF leader and potential taoiseach will not be elected in Cork South Central.
It does suck to be in the only constituency in Ireland with two FF TDs. Unfortunately they will probably both keep their seats. God know why people vote for McGrath. He is a complete bluffer.

Micheal Martins the bluffer im afraid.

Ludo

They both are.

Brussels Sprout

Ludo wrote:

It does suck to be in the only constituency in Ireland with two FF TDs.

Laos /Offaly has two also

Ludo

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Laos /Offaly has two also

So it does my mistake. And it is the previous ff leaders constituency.

rebs23

I think FG and Labour could be under real pressure due to Airport, N28, Dunkettle Interchange and general lack of investment in Cork projects.

mikeym

The big issues in Cork.

The M20 needs to be built.

Irish Water needs to be disbanded.

Theres a big Drugs problem in the city.

Scrapping the Universal Social Charge.

Cork Airport.

Plus a few more.

sozbox

mikeym wrote: »

The big issues in Cork.

Irish Water needs to be disbanded.
.

The 1000+ IW/Abtran contract/Local Authority staff working in Cork might disagree with you there...