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Ireland to leave EU should Britain exit ?

fundjanitor

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

Personally i would like to see Ireland leave the EU if Britain do so.

Reasons:

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Discuss

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eia340600

fundjanitor wrote: »

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Why would multinationals move FROM an EU country to the UK? What possible advantage could that offer them?

fundjanitor wrote: »

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

Our votes actually count more per individual than "the big boys". The larger the electorate, the more difficult it is for extremist views to take hold. In my view this adds greatly to stability. Compared to almost any other people on earth, Europeans live comfortable and safe lives - This is worth maintaining.

fundjanitor wrote: »

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

Do we? What parts and why is that a disadvantage in any way? In the UK, where immigration is a bigger factor than here, immigrants actually add more to an economy than they take. There is no limited number of jobs or the like. The more people, the more services are required, the more jobs there are. Can you explain why "we need to control our borders"?

fundjanitor wrote: »

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

What does this mean? We are part of a collective and we have a voice in that collective. I understand that the workings of the EU can be frustrating, but if we suffer any disadvantages because of our membership, I am convinced the advantages far outweigh them.

fundjanitor wrote: »

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Actually, the EU (excluding the UK) is our largest trading partner, followed by the US, followed by the UK.

Jim2007

fundjanitor wrote: »

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Do you actually understand what it would mean for the UK to leave the EU??? They will have not trading relationship with market of 400m people, now they did very poorly when they had full access to the marked so I would not be will to bet on them when the are ranked way below their competitors. I have yet to hear of any CEOs who are willing to turn their backs on a market of that size?

fundjanitor wrote: »

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

How so, can you give us a concrete example? One of the reasons that the EU decisions make process goes so slow is because they are continuously trying to obtain consensus rather than putting things to a vote.

fundjanitor wrote: »

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

The directive on the free movement of people already provides sufficient tools for controlling the moment of EU citizens and from outside the EU we have the EU Blue Card... If we feel that is insufficient then the proper approach is to take it up with our partners, not just up and leave.

fundjanitor wrote: »

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

What does that even mean? Object for the same of objecting.... The fact is that with the exception of the UK most of peoples of the EU have very common values and expectations. So it should not be surprising that we have very few differences.

fundjanitor wrote: »

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Well the figures I see from the OEC for the top 5 are: USA 19%, UK 14%, Benelux 13%, Germany 8%, France 6%.... now given that the EU is in the process of coming up with a new comprehensive agreement with the US, I say it would be far more advantageous to be inside that outside trying to negotiate our own agreement.

An other point to consider, according the Credit Suisse economists (internal research) there are only two countries in Euroland who's currency would rise significantly if they were to exit the Euro - Germany and Ireland! Both countries have benefited greatly from trading in an under valued currency.

BoJack Horseman

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

No & most British voters wish to remain part of the EU.

I thought being an economic vassal of the UK went out of fashion decades ago?

The J Stands for Jay

fundjanitor wrote: »

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

If a multinational is set up in one EU country, they have access to the entire common market. If the UK left, we would be the only native English speaking country left. That would be attractive for a lot of US companies looking for access to the EU common market.

I would say the opposite of your point would be the case.

KingBrian2

Britain staying in the EU is preferable but is not really a bid deal. It is completely overblown exaggeration. So they decide to leave we continue to have good relations with them only this time I see opportunity to extend trade into the Scottish highlands. Remember those guys like the idea of the EU and regardless of their attachment with England they will want to retain links with the rest of us.

Grandpa Hassan

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

No & most British voters wish to remain part of the EU.

Where do you see that? Politicians do. And business people. But a vast swathe of the great unwashed British public would vote to leave. My family live around Leeds and I barely meet a person when I am up there who would vote to stay in. Including my entire family. The campaign to stay in can't take the vote for granted for sure

KingBrian2

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Where do you see that? Politicians do. And business people. But a vast swathe of the great unwashed British public would vote to leave. My family live around Leeds and I barely meet a person when I am up there who would vote to stay in. Including my entire family. The campaign to stay in can't take the vote for granted for sure

The Scots want to stay. That place used to be full of Labourites, Unionists, Liberals, Greens & Republicans. Now they are all Nationalists. The voters south of the border might not need Europe with all its legislation that ain't the case for Highlanders. Those people might not agree on all issues but I believe we can reasonable say with certainty the Scots are not going to give into demands to break the link with the EU. It was a Scottish PM that made agreements on behalf of Britain in Brussels meetings.

BoJack Horseman

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Politicians do.

Not enough though.

An in/out vote in parliament would be heavily defeated.
The 'Brexit' MP's don't make up the majority of the Tory party.

Apparently Cameron knows he will face a 2/3 vs 1/3 split if negotiations go poorly in Brussels.
Terrible for him, but no parliamentary majority.

And business people.

....for the large majority wish to remain part of the EU.

But a vast swathe of the great unwashed British public would vote to leave. My family live around Leeds and I barely meet a person when I am up there who would vote to stay in. Including my entire family.

Aside from your folks poor personal hygiene, recent pools indicate a majority favouring remaining in the EU.

scouserstation

What about currency? how would we fare if we went back to the punt on exiting the euro?

KingBrian2

scouserstation wrote: »

What about currency? how would we fare if we went back to the punt on exiting the euro?

Many Irish people do not support the € or the EU. I happen not to agree with them but we have plenty of sceptics by contrast the political elite in Britain hate being restricted by the Brussels Commission. The UK are undecided on the whole issue. They are being told a pack a lies by the media though. They are losing practical sovereignty by being in NATO and doing what America tells them to do.

Value Hunter

Leaving the EU would decimate our economy

Anyone with a fraction of a brain realizes this

Westernyelp

I notice OP has decided to leave this one fairly quickly

Value Hunter

Westernyelp wrote: »

I notice OP has decided to leave this one fairly quickly

Mammy probably said its bed time!

Muff Richardson

Value Hunter wrote: »

Leaving the EU would decimate our economy

Anyone with a fraction of a brain realizes this

How insightful. You had me totally convinced upon elaborating on your second point and I feel slightly ashamed if not a tad embarrassed that I didn't know all this already. Thank you in equal measure for your enlightment and input.

Value Hunter

Muff Richardson wrote: »

How insightful. You had me totally convinced upon elaborating on your second point and I feel slightly ashamed if not a tad embarrassed that I didn't know all this already. Thank you in equal measure for your enlightment and input.

Your welcome Muff

oscarBravo

fundjanitor wrote: »

someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority

You're absolutely right: there are whole houses where this is true.

Jim2007

scouserstation wrote: »

What about currency? how would we fare if we went back to the punt on exiting the euro?

Both ourselves and German benefit greatly from the Euro, primarily because it is under valued. What I would consider to be fairly independent research (Credit Suisse) predict that an Irish punt or DMark for that matter would raise if either Ireland or Germany were to leave Euroland. Their main reasoning is that Ireland has been a net exporting country for a very long time and net exporting countries have strong currencies, if for no other reason than your customers have to buy your currency to pay for the goods you ship them.

By the same token these people never stopped recommending Irish government bonds to their clients all through the recession, their reasoning was the same: Ireland is a net exporting country and if you are continuously selling more than you are buying you can eventually work your way out any financial difficulties and of course we are northern Europeans, which in the eyes of the Swiss makes us solid reliable business partners.

MarkAnthony

The UK - What ever part of it's left by the time the get round to the vote 'leaving' the EU and Ireland leaving the EU are two entirely different animals.

Cameron knows he can get some sort of peripheral deal (a la Switzerland) maintaining the common market elements but removing some of the more unpopular legal elements, probably by making some sort of compromise on immigration which will be heralded by the UK as a great victory. The ground work for this has probably been in the works for years. As opposed t the Irish exit which would be 'Bye now, don't let the door hit you in the arse on they way out'.

Saipanne

Op nowhere to be seen...

Victor

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way

Blame the English now?

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Perhaps you mean Éire? Are you perhaps living in the 1930s?

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Ireland's advantages - workforce, tax treaties, EU membership, English-speaking (but with access to other languages), Euro currency, time zone, transport access. Yes, let's throw a bunch of them on a bonfire.

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

So, alienate 86% of our trade to protect 14%? :rolleyes:

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I see opportunity to extend trade into the Scottish highlands.

Do you mean the Scottish highlands - where nobody lives?

Jim2007

MarkAnthony wrote: »

Cameron knows he can get some sort of peripheral deal (a la Switzerland)...

There is no way he would accept the Swiss deal and people who suggest it clear fail to appreciate that our deal is basically membership without representation. We have to accept the the full force of the free movement of people, we have to contribute to the structural funds, we have to fully comply with the requirements of the common market etc.... for the UK that would be a step backwards.

MarkAnthony

Jim2007 wrote: »

There is no way he would accept the Swiss deal and people who suggest it clear fail to appreciate that our deal is basically membership without representation. We have to accept the the full force of the free movement of people, we have to contribute to the structural funds, we have to fully comply with the requirements of the common market etc.... for the UK that would be a step backwards.

It was meant in the general sense.

The UK has the bargaining power to pick and choose (to a degree, of course) what treaties it will enter into. The 'In/Out' Referendum will simply allow for the spin doctors to say 'we're out' when really all they will do is negotiate some watering down of the law flowing from the EU. They will remain within the single market as far as is possible.

KingBrian2

MarkAnthony wrote: »

It was meant in the general sense.

The UK has the bargaining power to pick and choose (to a degree, of course) what treaties it will enter into. The 'In/Out' Referendum will simply allow for the spin doctors to say 'we're out' when really all they will do is negotiate some watering down of the law flowing from the EU. They will remain within the single market as far as is possible.

They will have to give up the rebate they get. They keep on and on about the unfairness of France getting all that money for the farmers. If Cameron wants all these opt outs from Brussels and excusing themselves from laws that apply to us all then they will have to leave aside the rebate. That will not be good for many parts of the UK. Even if he does get some leeway he will still have to negotiate separate agreements with Norway, our good selves and the Dutch. He will have his work cut out dealing with all these countries.

gallag

KingBrian2 wrote: »

They will have to give up the rebate they get. They keep on and on about the unfairness of France getting all that money for the farmers. If Cameron wants all these opt outs from Brussels and excusing themselves from laws that apply to us all then they will have to leave aside the rebate. That will not be good for many parts of the UK. Even if he does get some leeway he will still have to negotiate separate agreements with Norway, our good selves and the Dutch. He will have his work cut out dealing with all these countries.

You do realise the rebate is just a slight bit of what we pay back? If we leave the EU will will not exactly miss the rebate.

MarkAnthony

KingBrian2 wrote: »

They will have to give up the rebate they get. They keep on and on about the unfairness of France getting all that money for the farmers. If Cameron wants all these opt outs from Brussels and excusing themselves from laws that apply to us all then they will have to leave aside the rebate. That will not be good for many parts of the UK. Even if he does get some leeway he will still have to negotiate separate agreements with Norway, our good selves and the Dutch. He will have his work cut out dealing with all these countries.

My understanding is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU. Ireland benefits hugely from it's EU membership, I would imagine to a lesser or greater degree through the CAP.

I don't imagine the UK will need to negotiated individually, although I'm sure that wouldn't be an issue. It will simply maintain a treaty arrangement with the EU.

meglome

Value Hunter wrote: »

Leaving the EU would decimate our economy

Anyone with a fraction of a brain realizes this

Pick any newspaper post from social media and read with horror the many posting how we should leave the EU. All backed up with underpants gnomes logic.

Leave EU
???????????
Profit

Victor

MarkAnthony wrote: »

My understanding is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU. Ireland benefits hugely from it's EU membership, I would imagine to a lesser or greater degree through the CAP.

I've always taken these statements with a grain of salt. While the UK government is a net contributor to the EU budget and Irish farmers are net beneficiaries from the CAP, the same doesn't necessarily apply to the UK as a whole, all UK citizens individually or Ireland as a whole, or all Irish citizens individually. However, the benefit of something like the EU is that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. In whatever initiative, one has 500 million people backing it. If we want to create a technical standard for widgets, then not only is the cost spread over 500 million people and the greatest minds from that population can be applied to deriving and implementing it, but if I create a widget, I know it complies with standards across a market of 500 million.

We all benefit from membership and to only use a narrow accounting standard is spending pounds to save pennies.

I don't imagine the UK will need to negotiated individually

How would that work? While it could negotiated with the EU en-bloc, it would still need to negotiate with Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and in the OP's fantasy, Ireland. It would need to do this negotiation by itself.

The Corinthian

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

Don't you think you should let them have their referendum and decide what 'their way' is first?

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Multinationals don't care about direct access to the largest market on the planet? Being outside of that market is more attractive?

Please explain both the logic and any supporting evidence for both those claims.

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

It seems? Is this like a warm fuzzy feeling you get on the issue or do you have some evidence to back this up?

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

Switzerland and Norway are both non-EU members and still have major immigration problems.

Part of it is because they are bound to follow EU freedom of movement if they want to be allowed to trade with the block, but a lot of it is geographical. Canada, in particular, may have strong immigration policies, but are they really any stronger than European ones? After all, last time I checked, Canada is not next door to Africa and the Middle East.

But please pray tell, how Canada and Australia's imigration policies are any more stringent or how we could, outside of the EU, change ours without breaking UN Asylum treaties or EU freedom of movement agreements?

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

Repetition of your second point, so please see above.

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Actually they're not. The EU, less the UK, accounts for 42.5% of Irish exports. The UK 15.4% and the US 23.2%. It doesn't take terribly complex math to realize that the EU, without the UK, accounts for more exports than the UK and the US combined.

So what motivated you to start this thread with a post that is so clearly full of, well, crap? Every point you've made is either unsubstantiated opinion or can be shown as false with ease. Given the response you've received here, have you learned anything from this exercise of yours?

Discuss.

Jim2007

MarkAnthony wrote: »

I don't imagine the UK will need to negotiated individually, although I'm sure that wouldn't be an issue. It will simply maintain a treaty arrangement with the EU.

They cannot negotiate with individual EU members end of story - it's a single market remember? And one of the criteria for joining is that you no longer are entitled to negotiate your own trade deals.

Jim2007

Victor wrote: »

While it could negotiated with the EU en-bloc, it would still need to negotiate with Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and in the OP's fantasy, Ireland. It would need to do this negotiation by itself.

Not really, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are all members of EFTA as is the EU, so you will not get anything from them unless the EU agrees it as well!