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Cheltenham Festival 2015

mr.jingle

Just under 10wks now till the greatest show on earth!

Today the Bha have cut the field sizes of the Supreme,Neptune,Triumph from 24 to 22 runners.

The Coral Cup and County hurdle cut from 28 to 26, while the Fred Winter has been cut from 26 to 24 runners.

All the cuts yet still 4 days.

The Martin Pipe Conditional Race will have no 3lb allowance on riders from there own stable and the non winning riders 7lb is removed too

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longshotvalue

jimjamcos wrote: »

If More Of That returns to form, which is likely given how poor Jonjos form proved to be after his loss, ROR as good as he is won't live with him.

Of course but there is a big if at the moment, and almost everything else seems to have no chance at all.. If more of that isn't on form, something silly could win that race.. I cant find the angle yet, but something will have a shot in it at a huge price. Diakali is sort of interest, but i'm not sure if he is going, or what he will go for.

Gringo180

Do we think Rock On Ruby stays the 3 miles? Crazy decision not to run him in the Champion Hurdle.

Shemale

Gringo180 wrote: »

Do we think Rock On Ruby stays the 3 miles? Crazy decision not to run him in the Champion Hurdle.

I thought he should be in the CH opinion but I saw last years hurdle was run in 3m44 I have my doubts even at is best he could live with that pace or possibly quicker.

I wouldn't be overly concerned, he looks to be travelling better than ever through his races and the World Hurdle can be ran sedatley which would play into a Champion Hurdlers hands.

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

Of course but there is a big if at the moment, and almost everything else seems to have no chance at all.. If more of that isn't on form, something silly could win that race.. I cant find the angle yet, but something will have a shot in it at a huge price. Diakali is sort of interest, but i'm not sure if he is going, or what he will go for.

Yea agree, Diakali would be hugely interesting but must be being kept for Aintree at this stage. The other one I like is Zarkander, although his price is probably about right. I know it didn't look great the way he was beaten lto but he simply idled IMO and was staying on again come the line. No shame in getting pipped by a course specialist anyway and he'll be better for a championship pace. A bit like ROR, although probably not as talented, you'd have to think he'd have a class edge on the others too.

Gringo180

Shemale wrote: »

I thought he should be in the CH opinion but I saw last years hurdle was run in 3m44 I have my doubts even at is best he could live with that pace or possibly quicker.

I wouldn't be overly concerned, he looks to be travelling better than ever through his races and the World Hurdle can be ran sedatley which would play into a Champion Hurdlers hands.

Faster pace in the Champion would suit ROR better imo. I think he would go very close, although I may be biased in my opinion as he is a favorite of mine.

Shemale

Gringo180 wrote: »

Faster pace in the Champion would suit ROR better imo. I think he would go very close, although I may be biased in my opinion as he is a favorite of mine.

It probably would but they seemed to go very quick when he won at 7 and last year they were 5 seconds quicker and he is 3 years older, very fond of the horse but with the potential that the race will be quicker again you would have to doubt it.

That said they will probably leave the decision as late as they can and see what comes out of the Champion.

sdoc13

The race there seems to be some AP value in is the 4 miler. Don poli and the young master will have to run in the RSA. Leaving it at 12/1 next best.

Mala beach and very wood at 16s and 20 seem really solid bets at those prices will surely be much shorter on the day when the 2 market leaders are rerouted.

Moon Dice

Any takers for Monksland in the world hurdle. I have always been impressed by him and it was a good first run out the last day. Hopefully he makes it to Cheltenham. I give him a good shout. I do think More of that is a strong favourite though

Alba Frere

I'm on Sausalito Sunrise for the 4miler at 14s. I agree, I think DP and TYM will go RSA.

jimjamcos

sdoc13 wrote: »

The race there seems to be some AP value in is the 4 miler. Don poli and the young master will have to run in the RSA. Leaving it at 12/1 next best.

Mala beach and very wood at 16s and 20 seem really solid bets at those prices will surely be much shorter on the day when the 2 market leaders are rerouted.

Ground would have to be a worry for Mala Beach and Elliot has said he'll only run on soft. One I like is Lots of Memories @ 25/1. Not sure if race is the target but his form as a novice hurdler behind Beat That and Don Poli at Punchestown last year and recently behind Don Poli and Apache Stronghold in the Topaz is very good form. Anyone heard of plans?

NaiveMelodies

Moon Dice wrote: »

Any takers for Monksland in the world hurdle. I have always been impressed by him and it was a good first run out the last day. Hopefully he makes it to Cheltenham. I give him a good shout. I do think More of that is a strong favourite though

Big fan of Monksland, just not sure how much a fan he is of the better ground.
Also the track, not sure he settled to well way back when Simonsig battered them. I know he finished third but the overall form of that race was very poor.

prettyboy81

Shemale wrote: »

I thought he should be in the CH opinion but I saw last years hurdle was run in 3m44 I have my doubts even at is best he could live with that pace or possibly quicker.

I wouldn't be overly concerned, he looks to be travelling better than ever through his races and the World Hurdle can be ran sedatley which would play into a Champion Hurdlers hands.

This race could unfold in the same manner Solwhit won it 2 years ago. Fairly steady pace throughout the race with Solwhit given a snug ride by PC before hitting the front with his natural 2 mile speed in the closing stages.

The interesting aspect for Rock on Ruby is will they be able to switch him off and let him travel into the race. I cannot see him winning the race if he try to make it most of the way or travels prominetly.

Gavin "shels"

Debating what days to take off work, can only use 2 days (need my leave for other things), last two years I've gone with Champion day and Gold Cup day, think I'll be doing the same again this year.

Backstreet Moyes

What do people think of The Young Master for the RSA. I know he only won two handicaps but he looks to be a very progressive young horse.

Backstreet Moyes

Gavin shels wrote: »

Debating what days to take off work, can only use 2 days (need my leave for other things), last two years I've gone with Champion day and Gold Cup day, think I'll be doing the same again this year.

Tuesday and Friday it's not even a tough decision two best days by a mile.

longshotvalue

Nuts102 wrote: »

What do people think of The Young Master for the RSA. I know he only won two handicaps but he looks to be a very progressive young horse.

I think his form is very good and possibly should be favourite.. In staying chases top handicap form is hard for a novice to beat..

Backstreet Moyes

aidankkk wrote: »

I think his form is very good and possibly should be favourite.. In staying chases top handicap form is hard for a novice to beat..

Ye i have been backing him each week for the RSA. A friend is adamant he is not good enough and will go for the 4 miler i just can't see it i think he could be top class.

Backstreet Moyes

I don't like Ferguson's record at Cheltenham but Parlour Games for the Neptune looks good.

Will keep an eye on Out Sam tomorrow also to see how he gets on.

Mgoraf

Nuts102 wrote: »

I don't like Ferguson's record at Cheltenham but Parlour Games for the Neptune looks good.

Will keep an eye on Out Sam tomorrow also to see how he gets on.

Not running tomorrow

Entered on Saturday.

sting60

jimjamcos wrote: »

If More Of That returns to form, which is likely given how poor Jonjos form proved to be after his loss, ROR as good as he is won't live with him.

For sure in a big way.john Joe seems to get a virus?? Every second year but if his horses return to form before Cheltenham nothing beats him.

sting60

I like the Lexus form for the gold cup but a novice to watch if he is entered(loves soft) is coneygree.currently 33/1but if the ground comes up soft or worse he will only be 10/1 or less.

Shemale

sting60 wrote: »

I like the Lexus form for the gold cup but a novice to watch if he is entered(loves soft) is coneygree.currently 33/1but if the ground comes up soft or worse he will only be 10/1 or less.

Looks exciting alright, hard to know what to make of his last run given the carnage. The time before he was withdrawn by the vet and the trainer was bulling so he was clearly spot on around then.

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody know ante post if you do an accum and one is a non runner is your bet down to a treble or voided?

mr.jingle

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody know ante post if you do an accum and one is a non runner is your bet down to a treble or voided?

It's a loser i'm afraid

Mountainlad

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody know ante post if you do an accum and one is a non runner is your bet down to a treble or voided?

Do you mean if that selection was NRNB? Just that selection would be voided and the accum down to a treble.

lemush

Nuts102 wrote: »

Ye i have been backing him each week for the RSA. A friend is adamant he is not good enough and will go for the 4 miler i just can't see it i think he could be top class.

He'd be the first winner for donkeys years to have not even run in a graded race over either obstacle. Really like the horse but would be disappointed if there wasn't a few better staying novices around.

sdoc13

Iirc didnt they change the way the times were taken last year. This lead to most of the times being faster than normal. Something to consider if you are using times as part of ur analysis.

sting60

If you like horses running at kempton at Christmas as a marker for the gold cup then put a clock from 2 out regarding silviniaco conti/coneygree ( novice)then he ( coneygree) is a real player.

famagusta

Just getting my Chelt ante post bets in order now, only looking at a few races so far. Will wait for NRNB for most bets.

Champion Chase - Looking at the market, with the two market leaders still not sighted this season, i decided to have a play on two old favourites of mine that are abit down the betting. I do hope SS and SDG run but if they don't my bets will be extra nice!!

2 pts win on Dodging bullets at 12/1 - Had a large bet in the Arkle last year on him and i think there has been a good bit of improvement this year mainly learning to settle better in his races.

1 Pt win Special Tiara 25/1 - Backed him in the CC last year too, the price is too good to ignore especially with his good run at kempton behind him. Could do anything.

Gathering up funds for the rest of my ante post but my principal bets will be;

Jezki EW in CH, can't see him out of the top three.

Still deciding on the RSA but i will be opposing Kings Palace all day, he flatters to deceive, same story as last year. The two Giggy mullins horses look very good, and i presume don poli will be the one to go in this.

And i am really looking forward to launching on No more heros in the Albert Bartlett, think he is a proper horse!!!!!

Shemale

sting60 wrote: »

If you like horses running at kempton at Christmas as a marker for the gold cup then put a clock from 2 out regarding silviniaco conti/coneygree ( novice)then he ( coneygree) is a real player.

Thats very flawed sting, Congree didnt have a rival for a long time in his race whereas Silvianaco had top classes horses snapping at his hooves for the whole race.