Serial

Wow, I missed that second point you mentioned, the spoiler about Hae, or maybe that is what didn't figure in the actual Serial podcast. That is a big issue right there.

I think I need to listen back to work out details now that we have had some of the original information modified/corrected (

times of phone calls for example

). I would definitely say that whether or not it's actually possible to prove who killed here it's looking as though Adnan may have been convicted on shaky grounds.

padraig_f

What seems most plausible to me right now...

Jay was more involved than he's making out, but Adnan did it.

I was wondering why Adnan wasn't going on the offensive more about Jay, and someone said it (think it was on the Slate podcast), that Adnan probably can't do this without incriminating himself.

This also accounts for the inconsistencies in Jay's story.

A lot of talk about reasonable doubt in the podcast. Me, I think it is beyond reasonable doubt that either Jay or Adnan did it. Main piece of evidence for this: Jay was able to tell the cops where Hae's car was, which they didn't know to that point.

There's no reasonable explanation for him knowing this without them being some way involved.

So then you decide is it Jay or Adnan. For me I've seen nothing to suggest it would be Jay. Didn't have a relationship with Hae, went to the cops voluntarily. You could say that was a plan, but it just seems very implausible to me that he'd be able to construct this masterplan, and everything else would more or less fit, including things he had no control over like Adnan not having an alibi.

FouxDaFaFa wrote: »

Yes but if you believe the testimony of Summer from Episode 9, Hae stayed and spoke with her for quite a while after school about how she couldn't help her at the wrestling match and this would have made her pushed for time to pick up her cousin.

I found this new Summer stuff really sketchy. She never talked to the cops, but she comes along 15 years later and knows where she was in a particular 20-minute period? Thought that was really shaky and pretty much dismissed it as being unreliable.

volchitsa wrote: »

Wow, I missed that second point you mentioned, the spoiler about Hae, or maybe that is what didn't figure in the actual Serial podcast. That is a big issue right there.

It didn't figure in the podcast which I thought was strange but it's in the Appeal documents from 2002 (yes I've been digging!), might have been genuinely discounted as there's nothing further about it anywhere

I really don't think we'll ever have a conclusive answer, but in a way that's what makes this story so compelling.

Turtyturd

The lack of a conclusive ending would be a drawback for me, although that could be because I thought it was a piece of fiction when I began it and was expecting it to be neatly wrapped up and explained.

The only way I could see a conclusive ending now would be if they reveal some concrete proof that Adnan did it, which would go against the direction of the show so far but be a swerve to generate massive publicity. I haven't quite figured out the details but I think the confirmation that Hae wasn't murdered in those 20 odd minutes will be bad news for Adnan.

Turtyturd wrote: »

The only way I could see a conclusive ending now would be if they reveal some concrete proof that Adnan did it, which would go against the direction of the show so far but be a swerve to generate massive publicity. I haven't quite figured out the details but I think the confirmation that Hae wasn't murdered in those 20 odd minutes will be bad news for Adnan.

Thinking about this, I wonder if Adnan could be guilty and yet still be kind of telling the truth (in his own mind at least) if he feels there was a miscarriage of justice because the court got it so wrong in terms of what actually happened that he might easily have been innocent, since he didn't commit the exact crime he was convicted of.

Not sure if that's completely clear there!

volchitsa wrote: »

Thinking about this, I wonder if Adnan could be guilty and yet still be kind of telling the truth (in his own mind at least) if he feels there was a miscarriage of justice because the court got it so wrong in terms of what actually happened that he might easily have been innocent, since he didn't commit the exact crime he was convicted of.

Not sure if that's completely clear there!

*note - I don't know the mods on here but is there a chance of getting a spoiler alert in the thread title? I would still recommend we spoiler tag info about the case which might be available but is not mentioned on the podcast, but it's a grey area right now and while I really really don't want to spoil the thread for people who aren't up to speed, at some stage we should be able to discuss the podcast without worrying who might know what. So the below might have spoilers....

Well that's interesting as I reckon it's (the podcast) kind of been set up as a way of looking at his case more for the miscarriage of justice point of view than the whodunnit point of view (though in reality it comes across as both). The fact that the Innocence Project are getting involved makes me think that an appeal or similar would have been planned to be part of the story.

One of the interesting quotes from the podcast for me came in the 7th episode talking to the innocence project when the director of the innocence project (Deirdre?) muses if the state actually had enough of a case to get a conviction. And Sarah's response was well they did, because a jury convicted him!

And I think that's the key thing here - it appears obvious that the State's case was flawed, and there's reasonable doubt of his guilt based on what we know. However, this fact does not mean an appeal should overturn the decision. I'm no lawyer but I think you have to do a lot more than prove that the case facts were incorrect which would open up reasonable doubt, instead you actually have to go further and find either a) evidence to prove that somebody else committed the crime he was found guilty of, or b) evidence that may not solve the case, but which would exonerate his guilt (which has at this point been proven). The point that we know facts now that prove reasonable doubt isn't really a thing, so without a confession from somebody else there would have to be specific evidence to prove that he couldn't have done it, and the strongest one I can see, is Asia's statement which was never entered and she didn't testify.

It's fascinating stuff really.

padraig_f wrote: »

For me I've seen nothing to suggest it would be Jay. Didn't have a relationship with Hae, went to the cops voluntarily. You could say that was a plan, but it just seems very implausible to me that he'd be able to construct this masterplan, and everything else would more or less fit, including things he had no control over like Adnan not having an alibi.

But Jay didn't go to the cops voluntarily- they picked up Jenn based on a suspicion of Adnan because he was the most recent ex, and the multiple calls from Adnan's phone to Jenn's (including calls which Jay makes when he alledges that he is in her house). Jenn avoids the cops, then lies then lawyers up, gets Jay involved. He gets picked up, lies for hours and hours before coming out with a version of his story which becomes refined over time with coaching from the cops. If you don't think that police can lead a witness unintentionally or intentionally then you should listen to the TAL episode 'Confessions' featuring Jim Trainum who is engaged by Sarah to look over the case. One of the scariest aspects of this case is the way that the police routinely apply confirmation bias to ignore 'bad evidence' that could weaken their theory.

Rosy Posy wrote: »

If you don't think that police can lead a witness unintentionally or intentionally then you should listen to the TAL episode 'Confessions' featuring Jim Trainum who is engaged by Sarah to look over the case. One of the scariest aspects of this case is the way that the police routinely apply confirmation bias to ignore 'bad evidence' that could weaken their theory.

Was that the episode where they talked about the approach whereby "all facts are friendly" vs "constructing a case"? I thought that was very significant in terms of what police work actually means with regard to solving a case. In general, I mean, not just here.

Very different from the usual fictional police series, where only the bad cops work like that!

padraig_f

Rosy Posy wrote: »

But Jay didn't go to the cops voluntarily- they picked up Jenn based on a suspicion of Adnan because he was the most recent ex, and the multiple calls from Adnan's phone to Jenn's (including calls which Jay makes when he alledges that he is in her house). Jenn avoids the cops, then lies then lawyers up, gets Jay involved.

Ok, maybe I got that wrong, I'm going to relisten to the first few episodes to refresh my memory on some of the details, but I still largely believe Jay.

He gets picked up, lies for hours and hours before coming out with a version of his story which becomes refined over time with coaching from the cops.

I don't think it was ever suggested he lied for hours. All they had was that the tape recorder wasn't switched on for the first part of his interview with the police.

If you don't think that police can lead a witness unintentionally or intentionally then you should listen to the TAL episode 'Confessions' featuring Jim Trainum who is engaged by Sarah to look over the case. One of the scariest aspects of this case is the way that the police routinely apply confirmation bias to ignore 'bad evidence' that could weaken their theory.

I'll have a listen. That was the guy that Koenig quoted on the last episode, and I thought it was the most useful comment in considering the value of peoples impressions of peoples personalities/motives:

Koenig: "Interestingly, Jim Trainum the former homicide detective we hired to review the investigation immediately disregarded every single statement about Adnan’s reaction. In terms of evaluating someone’s guilt, he said stuff like that is worthless. He advised me to do the same, just toss it all out he said, because it’s subjective, it’s hindsight and also people tend to bend their memories to what they think police think they want to hear."

So stuff like when they went to Cathy's apartment and she thought Adnan was acting weird, I dismiss. Similarly things like people saying "Adnan was a great guy, he couldn't have done that". Just too subjective.

padraig_f

With no episode this week, I'm gonna relisten to the first few episodes. Listened to episode 1 last night, it's useful. The first time you hear it you're trying to understand the basic facts. Second time, you know the basic facts and can concentrate on some of the more nuanced details.

Relistening to episode 1....even more convinced of Adnan's guilt, I have to say. Couple of things...

- Says he doesn't remember where he was on the key part of the day. I just find this unbelievable. He's talking to Hae the night before, he's in contact with her during the day. She goes missing and police are immediately informed, as this is so out of character for her to not pick up her cousin. And Adnan is going on like it's another forgettable day "I would've typically been doing this or that". A significant day like that, you'd retrace your steps "I last saw her in the canteen" or whatever, then I went to X.

Also Adnan seems to have plenty of friends and whatnot, but for that part of the day he's apparently on his own, somewhere he can't remember. I don't buy it. When you're at school like that, you're always with other people, and Adnan seemed to be more outgoing than average.

- Jay had no car himself. The reason Jay had use of Adnan's car that day was because it was Stephanie's birthday and Adnan gave him a loan of his car to go buy her a present. Just makes the whole 'Jay did it' theory seem incredibly far-fetched. He not only had a motive to kill this girl he apparently had no relationship with, he also conveniently had use of her ex-boyfriend's car and phone. I just think this is an incredibly far-fetched and implausible theory.

padraig_f wrote: »

- Says he doesn't remember where he was on the key part of the day. I just find this unbelievable. He's talking to Hae the night before, he's in contact with her during the day. She goes missing and police are immediately informed, as this is so out of character for her to not pick up her cousin. And Adnan is going on like it's another forgettable day "I would've typically been doing this or that". A significant day like that, you'd retrace your steps "I last saw her in the canteen" or whatever, then I went to X.

Also Adnan seems to have plenty of friends and whatnot, but for that part of the day he's apparently on his own, somewhere he can't remember. I don't buy it. When you're at school like that, you're always with other people, and Adnan seemed to be more outgoing than average.

- Jay had no car himself. The reason Jay had use of Adnan's car that day was because it was Stephanie's birthday and Adnan gave him a loan of his car to go buy her a present. Just makes the whole 'Jay did it' theory seem incredibly far-fetched. He not only had a motive to kill this girl he apparently had no relationship with, he also conveniently had use of her ex-boyfriend's car and phone. I just think this is an incredibly far-fetched and implausible theory.

Yep, those are good points, Padraig. I've been saying the same thing, the early epis need to be revisited in the light of later developments. This is the thing about it being a story, rather than a police report I suppose. There has been a lot of "teasing" going on, and that needs to be kept in mind.
Brilliantly done though - but I also feel a little uneasy about the fact that it is not just a story to Hae's family, in particular.

padraig_f wrote: »

- Says he doesn't remember where he was on the key part of the day. I just find this unbelievable. He's talking to Hae the night before, he's in contact with her during the day. She goes missing and police are immediately informed, as this is so out of character for her to not pick up her cousin. And Adnan is going on like it's another forgettable day "I would've typically been doing this or that". A significant day like that, you'd retrace your steps "I last saw her in the canteen" or whatever, then I went to X.

Adnan was questioned over a month after Hae disappeared and he was a big pot smoker. He said himself he didn't think it was a big deal that Hae went missing as a lot of people presumed she went of with Don or to California to see her Dad.

padraig_f wrote: »

- Jay had no car himself. The reason Jay had use of Adnan's car that day was because it was Stephanie's birthday and Adnan gave him a loan of his car to go buy her a present.

Jay regularly had a loan of Adnans car. Just so happened the reason that day was to buy a present, but him having Adnans car wasn't anything out of the ordinary. He picked him up from track all the time in Adnans car.

padraig_f wrote: »

He not only had a motive to kill this girl he apparently had no relationship with, he also conveniently had use of her ex-boyfriend's car and phone.

He also had use of Hae's car after/if he killed her. It's almost guaranteed he did drive Hae's car that day as he knew the exact location of where to bring the police to it. He also rang Jenn for a lift numerous times that day to get around.

padraig_f wrote: »

I just think this is an incredibly far-fetched and implausible theory.

Jay's whole story is far-fetched and implausible. The only possible times this 'come and get me call' from Adnan could have come were the 2.36 and 3.15 calls on the log. They've both subsequently been completely ruled out.

The only evidence linking Adnan to murdering Hae is Jay's testimony that he did it.

There is faaarrr more evidence linking Jay to Hae's murder. Jay's shovel which he went back to wipe his prints from, Jay burning the clothes he wore that day. Jay knowing exactly where Hae's car was. There was so much evidence on him he had no choice but to deflect it onto someone else.

Giruilla wrote: »

The only evidence linking Adnan to murdering Hae is Jay's testimony that he did it.

There is faaarrr more evidence linking Jay to Hae's murder. Jay's shovel which he went back to wipe his prints from, Jay burning the clothes he wore that day. Jay knowing exactly where Hae's car was. There was so much evidence on him he had no choice but to deflect it onto someone else.

Oh dear, here I go again, flip-flopping from one to the other! OK, just remembered that one of the things that made me sceptical about it being Adnan was Jay's allegation about Adnan threatening to hurt Stephanie if Jay said anything. Jay was the tough guy, would he be threatened by someone like Adnan? Whereas as a projection by Jay onto Adnan of what he had actually done (got at Adnan via Hae) well, that seems possible.

I think.

Now someone is going to make me change my mind back again, I guess!

Giruilla wrote: »

Jay regularly had a loan of Adnans car. Just so happened the reason that day was to buy a present, but him having Adnans car wasn't anything out of the ordinary. He picked him up from track all the time in Adnans car.

This is another thing I don't really have a handle on - how close were Jay and Adnan? I mean yeah Jay was his dealer (I infer that from the podcasts) and they smoked together but others talk about how they were just acquaintances which would be odd if Jay has his car all the time and Adnan lends him his new phone just a day after he buys it

The present for Stephanie story from the first episode is strange to hear also. Adnan speaks about wanting to ask Jay if he got her a gift and that part seems pretty strange also.

Especially as the day before, Jan 12th, happened to be Jay's birthday. Jay and Stephanie were a close couple so having birthday's on consecutive days (I actually had this situation with my ex in secondary school) you'd think that they'd already discussed it, and if there was gift giving, surely Stephanie would have given one the day before. If that's the case then Jay shouldn't have needed reminding to return the favour.

I might be looking too much into that, but overall the motive to go talk to Jay to see if he got her a gift and give him the car to go to the mall seems a bit loose

volchitsa wrote: »

Oh dear, here I go again, flip-flopping from one to the other! OK, just remembered that one of the things that made me sceptical about it being Adnan was Jay's allegation about Adnan threatening to hurt Stephanie if Jay said anything. Jay was the tough guy, would he be threatened by someone like Adnan? Whereas as a projection by Jay onto Adnan of what he had actually done (got at Adnan via Hae) well, that seems possible.

I think.

Now someone is going to make me change my mind back again, I guess!

The only thing that helps forcify Jay's testimony that Adnan did it (which is literally the only hard evidence again Adnan), is that he told Jenn that day.

Yet, Jay really had no choice but to tell her (falsify imo) that Adnan did it, as he called her for a lift and she knew he was acting strange... acting strange the day Hae went missing. She says he only told her Adnan killed Hae as she knew something big was up with him.

The idea Adnan would kill someone, then basically force Jay to help him bury Hae is almost ludicrous. What did he need Jay's help with?!

Giruilla wrote: »

The only thing that helps forcify Jay's testimony that Adnan did it (which is literally the only hard evidence again Adnan), is that he told Jenn that day.

Yet, Jay really had no choice but to tell her (falsify imo) that Adnan did it, as he called her for a lift and she knew he was acting strange... acting strange the day Hae went missing. She says he only told her Adnan killed Hae as she knew something big was up with him.

The idea Adnan would kill someone, then basically force Jay to help him bury Hae is almost ludicrous. What did he need Jay's help with?!

I guess his story implies that Adnan needed to dump Hae's car somewhere and get back to track practice to be seen - it's in the 1st or 2nd episode I think

So he needs a 2nd driver

Giruilla wrote: »

The idea Adnan would kill someone, then basically force Jay to help him bury Hae is almost ludicrous. What did he need Jay's help with?!

The trainer (I think) said Jay often picked Adnan up (in Adnan's car?) though, didn't he? Which sounds like there was something there. Maybe as a favour for dealing? I don't know, I'm only guessing here.

Thing is, that could all be explained if Adnan killed her without having premeditated it, on a day when Jay had his car, but that isn't Jay's story.

I don't know.

I also think (separate issue) that not putting Adnan on the stand was a huge error of judgment. He wasn't well served by his lawyer, so that extent his conviction is definitely dodgy. IMO.

8-10 wrote: »

I guess his story implies that Adnan needed to dump Hae's car somewhere and get back to track practice to be seen - it's in the 1st or 2nd episode I think

Yeah, except that's not what they did, they hung around, smoked a bit, and Adnan appears to have been late for track practice - if he went at all. So that doesn't work really. Not for a premeditated killing, like I said just now.

volchitsa wrote: »

Yeah, except that's not what they did, they hung around, smoked a bit, and Adnan appears to have been late for track practice - if he went at all. So that doesn't work really. Not for a premeditated killing, like I said just now.

But he still needed to be picked up, the other poster seemed to think Jay was not needed because of the fact that Adnan could have dug the hole by himself, I think that poster overlooked the fact that he still needed help with a 2nd car. No matter who did it (of Adnan or Jay) there must have been a 2nd person involved otherwise how would they have dumped the car where they did, on their own, and gotten back to Kathy's house or wherever they say they were next? The bus?

The fact that the car was left somewhere leads me to believe there had to be more than 1 person involved. The deep voice Jen P heard on the phone saying that Jay was busy is the only indication I've heard of there being a 3rd person, but right now I don't think that's likely.

8-10 wrote: »

But he still needed to be picked up, the other poster seemed to think Jay was not needed because of the fact that Adnan could have dug the hole by himself, I think that poster overlooked the fact that he still needed help with a 2nd car. No matter who did it (of Adnan or Jay) there must have been a 2nd person involved otherwise how would they have dumped the car where they did, on their own, and gotten back to Kathy's house or wherever they say they were next? The bus?

Jenn on what Jay told her

“No. I just took him to some place in the city and I dropped him off. And I took him to a..then I went down picked him up from a different place in the city”

So how exactly does Adnan need help with the 2nd car?

Assuming Adnan was moving Hae's car after Jay dropped him off.. how is he getting around without any car in the first place?

8-10 wrote: »

I guess his story implies that Adnan needed to dump Hae's car somewhere and get back to track practice to be seen - it's in the 1st or 2nd episode I think

So he needs a 2nd driver

Why not just drive Hae's car somewhere, dump the body, then call Jay for a lift.
What does he need Jay to come along for directly after killing Hae?!
That act itself - of ringing Jay - is what brings in two cars into the equation.

So what you're saying is, he's ringing Jay to force him to drive Hae's car.

The Strawman Argument

For people who need a substitute for their weekly Serial fix (there's no episode coming out today because of Thanksgiving, here's a few things that may be of interest

1. This American Life - Episode 492 - Dr Gilmer and Mr Hyde
Sarah Koenig investigates another murder case over the course of one episode. Almost like a Serial pilot or something.

2. The Slate Spoiler Podcast
Usually reserved for discussing recently released films, they've been covering Serial every week since episode 5. They don't cover any of the information that's been dug up on reddit but not yet covered on the show so there's no risk of having later episodes spoiled.
They've done an episode today which focuses exclusively on the reddit stuff though.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/SlateSpoilerSpecials

3. The Serial Serial
AV Club weekly discussion podcast, I prefer the Slate one but this one's okay too
http://www.avclub.com/features/the-serial-serial/

4. Conversations on the Serial Podcast
Haven't watched this one yet myself but I've heard a few other people mention it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OukREflhb-0&list=PLHYTsYMhZlH9R3TsNtSYSRmL3SyQ2vo1m&index=1

8-10 wrote: »

I guess his story implies that Adnan needed to dump Hae's car somewhere and get back to track practice to be seen - it's in the 1st or 2nd episode I think

So he needs a 2nd driver

The car was dumped at the park and ride...the clue's in the name...it's close to a public transport hub...so he could have gotten the bus.

I really enjoy the Conversations review, mostly because of Rabia- yer man is a bit long winded. The Slate and the AV club podcasts are ok but I feel like they lower the tone from the reflective TAL style that we know and love, to something a more showbizny, iykwim.

This blog has some really good insights from an American legal perspective. This post in particular

http://viewfromll2.com/2014/11/26/serial-why-jays-testimony-is-not-credible-evidence-of-adnans-guilt/

and here's the link to the confessions episode

http://m.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/507/confessions

Rosy Posy wrote: »

The car was dumped at the park and ride...the clue's in the name...it's close to a public transport hub...so he could have gotten the bus.

If you believe Jay's story given to the police then it was parked at the Park And Ride for a few hours

I think you're confusing this information with the location of where Hae's car was dumped for 6 weeks before Jay took the detectives to recover it - the grassy hill behind a row of houses somewhere on Edmonson Avenue (episode 4)

It's this location, where it was eventually dumped that I was talking about, not the I-70 park and ride which is alleged to have been used just between the murder and the burial (which I'm not sure yet if I believe happened)

8-10 wrote: »

If you believe Jay's story given to the police then it was parked at the Park And Ride for a few hours

I think you're confusing this information with the location of where Hae's car was dumped for 6 weeks before Jay took the detectives to recover it - the grassy hill behind a row of houses somewhere on Edmonson Avenue (episode 4)

It's this location, where it was eventually dumped that I was talking about, not the I-70 park and ride which is alleged to have been used just between the murder and the burial (which I'm not sure yet if I believe happened)

Oops, I was under the impression that it was left at the park and ride permanently. According to someone on reddit with way too much time on their hands there's a direct bus from Edmondson Ave to Best Buy tho...

Rosy Posy wrote: »

Oops, I was under the impression that it was left at the park and ride permanently. According to someone on reddit with way too much time on their hands there's a direct bus from Edmondson Ave to Best Buy tho...

Ha ha fair enough, did they check that the route was there in 1999?

There's a lot of good information on reddit but I haven't looked at much of it. If I had the time I'd think of making my own timeline

8-10 wrote: »

Ha ha fair enough, did they check that the route was there in 1999?

There's a lot of good information on reddit but I haven't looked at much of it. If I had the time I'd think of making my own timeline

They didn't say. It's a bit intense, that subreddit- people doing nutty things like timing themselves digging a shallow grave, using their gf as a Hae stand in; or expressing outrage at the producers not acknowledging the value of the obsessive online theorising. I like a good tinfoil hat as much as the next person but Sarah and co have been doing this as their job for the last year- they're hardly going to be out sleuthed in a few weeks by a bunch of armchair detectives.

There is an absolute wealth of info including several timelines- there's a good YouTube that someone's made showing Jays timeline on a map. Can't link from my phone for some reason but it's on the links in the subreddit.

Rosy Posy wrote: »

They didn't say. It's a bit intense, that subreddit- people doing nutty things like timing themselves digging a shallow grave, using their gf as a Hae stand in;

Ok that's crazy