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AFL Finals

skippymac6

Well the regular season is finally over and we have four classic matchups this week!

Early predictions I fancy the Hawks to again overturn the cats and Sydney to have to much for Freo.

Then I think Port to get the win against the Tigers and the other game is very close to call. I would love to see North Melbourne advance but I have a funny feeling that the Bombers might just about outlast them in this one.

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masllain

Am in Melbourne on holidays the weekend of 12-14. Does anyone have an idea of possibilities of likely games and the chances of picking up a ticket?

SSK

masllain wrote: »

Am in Melbourne on holidays the weekend of 12-14. Does anyone have an idea of possibilities of likely games and the chances of picking up a ticket?

There will almost definitely be a game in Melbourne that weekend as the loser of Geelong V Hawthorn this weekend will have a home final next weekend and tickets should be on public sale. However I think it is structured so that it will be Geelong/Hawthorn V Essendon/North Melbourne so an all-Melbourne clash will mean high demand for tickets so get in early to get tickets.

SSK

As for the Finals themselves, I think it's very hard to predict this year.

I have a big fancy for Geelong to beat Hawthorn. Just a gut feel but if Stevie J gets up and Hawkins continues his form I think they will be hard stopped. I worry for Hawthorn that Lake is carrying knocks and has looked vulnerable all season. Hawkins could have a field day.

Freo will find it difficult to overcome the loss of Johnson and McPharlin against the power of the Sydney forwardline. There's only so much tactics can cope with against talent like Buddy, Tippett, Goodes, McGlynn, Parker, Jetta etc.

Richmond have all the momentum with them and are the good news story of the past number of weeks. Port have been hot and cold in the last few weeks and couldn't get over the line in Perth at the weekend. Home advantage may just swing it for Port but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tiges get up.

North against Essendon is almost impossible to call. Both have been inconsistent to the point of consternation over the course of the season. North's formline is slightly better however without Harvey and probably Wells one would think that the top end talent in the Bomber's midfield is greater with Watson back to full fitness, Goddard, Heppell and Zaharakis. Bomber Thomson against Brad Scott is certainly advantage Essendon as well.

shanemkelly

SSK wrote: »

Freo will find it difficult to overcome the loss of Johnson and McPharlin against the power of the Sydney forwardline. There's only so much tactics can cope with against talent like Buddy, Tippett, Goodes, McGlynn, Parker, Jetta etc.

Johnson & McPharlin and massive 'OUTS' but a big 'IN' for Freo is the ANZ Stadium; Swans hate it & it's a similar size to Subi Oval... maybe not enough for the Dockers to get up but I'm betting on them to mimic last year and win another final away from home.
Go FREO!

SSK

shanemkelly wrote: »

Johnson & McPharlin and massive 'OUTS' but a big 'IN' for Freo is the ANZ Stadium; Swans hate it & it's a similar size to Subi Oval... maybe not enough for the Dockers to get up but I'm betting on them to mimic last year and win another final away from home.
Go FREO!

Now that Footy Park has been decommissioned ANZ is by far and away the worst footy ground in Australia. I saw Collingwood beat Sydney up there last year and I couldn't believe how bad the pitch was and how unsuited the whole set up was for Aussie Rules. It just doesn't look right. Plus it's and absolute nightmare to get to and miles away from everywhere.

But you're right, the Swans don't play well there and it's a disadvantage to them to have to play their home finals there.

Still don't think Freo will get up though

SSK

Absolute epic second half shootout between Essendon and North there. Awesome turnaround from North just got them over the line. Great fun watching Brown and Daniher match each other goal for goal.

After the other two games it's hard to see anything other than a Hawthorn Sydney grand final now.

bruschi

SSK wrote: »

Absolute epic second half shootout between Essendon and North there. Awesome turnaround from North just got them over the line. Great fun watching Brown and Daniher match each other goal for goal.

After the other two games it's hard to see anything other than a Hawthorn Sydney grand final now.

Saw all the hawks game and second half of swans. Both look impressive alright, and with a home game next, I can't see either being overturned too. Only caught the last ten minutes of the roo's game. Petrie kicked two super goals to finish it.

Tigerandahalf

I haven't seen much action this year apart from a few Sydney games. Franklin really could be an issue if it is a Hawks Swans final. He takes on way too many shots from acute angles trying to look brilliant. In the last game I saw he must have missed about 6 shots at goal, his usual trick of trying to score from way out on the left off his left foot is still in vogue. I don't think Sydney have disciplined him enough and it could cost Sydney in a final especially if they are favourites and the media whip up a frenzy on the whole Buddy ex hawks thing. Could see the Hawks nabbing them.

bruschi

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I haven't seen much action this year apart from a few Sydney games. Franklin really could be an issue if it is a Hawks Swans final. He takes on way too many shots from acute angles trying to look brilliant. In the last game I saw he must have missed about 6 shots at goal, his usual trick of trying to score from way out on the left off his left foot is still in vogue. I don't think Sydney have disciplined him enough and it could cost Sydney in a final especially if they are favourites and the media whip up a frenzy on the whole Buddy ex hawks thing. Could see the Hawks nabbing them.

He has been far different since then tho, much more disciplined. Was excellent in what I saw of him today, and as Campbell Brown tweeted, 10 million was a bargain. That hawthorn game was early in the year, and he was trying to prove a point. Much better second time around and I think he'd be fine.

Tigers to win tomorrow? Can't see it myself, but who knows!

Tigerandahalf

Does anyone fancy an outside team to do well. I remember a couple of years back commentators were saying the Roos had a good young team with a likewise coach.

Tigerandahalf

bruschi wrote: »

He has been far different since then tho, much more disciplined. Was excellent in what I saw of him today, and as Campbell Brown tweeted, 10 million was a bargain. That hawthorn game was early in the year, and he was trying to prove a point. Much better second time around and I think he'd be fine.

Tigers to win tomorrow? Can't see it myself, but who knows!

In fairness he is excellent at winning marks. He doesn't even need to jump, just pushing his opponent off. Even if they got him to stop the pot shots from ridiculous angles it would make a big difference. Is Hanneberry back playing ok?

MANUTD99

Tigers to win tomorrow? Can't see it myself, but who knows!

Jesus what an opening quarter by Port. 49-7. Just watching it now. Surely no comeback for Tigers (hopefully)

jackbhoy

MANUTD99 wrote: »

Jesus what an opening quarter by Port. 49-7. Just watching it now. Surely no comeback for Tigers (hopefully)

Abysmal effort by Tiges. I hope they channel all this hurt and abject failure into something worthwhile in coming seasons.

shanemkelly

Slightly afraid of Port now :eek: though the Tigers were abysmally poor.
Should be two great games this weekend. Quite fancy the Kangas on Friday.
Go Freo!

bruschi

some result for Port. I thought they'd win easy, but not that easy. I think they;ll take Freo now too. There was very little in it the last day, and Freo now down a couple of key injuries, a hard tough loss over in Sydney whereas Port had a great day at home, and are full of confidence.

Geelong will win the other game.

MANUTD99

bruschi wrote: »

some result for Port. I thought they'd win easy, but not that easy. I think they;ll take Freo now too. There was very little in it the last day, and Freo now down a couple of key injuries, a hard tough loss over in Sydney whereas Port had a great day at home, and are full of confidence.

Geelong will win the other game.

What injuries have Freo? I think Matty White is a big doubt for Port. They'll certainly be going into the game with confidence now though.

In fairness though that 8th finish by Richmond was the most over hyped playoff finish I've heard in a while.

skippymac6

bruschi wrote: »

some result for Port. I thought they'd win easy, but not that easy. I think they;ll take Freo now too. There was very little in it the last day, and Freo now down a couple of key injuries, a hard tough loss over in Sydney whereas Port had a great day at home, and are full of confidence.

Geelong will win the other game.

Yeah I agree that I think Geelong will have to much guns for North Melbourne, but they will need a better showing from a few of their bigger players. Also and it's stating the obvious, but they have to have a better start after half time!

I picked Freo for the whole lot at the start of the year and it hasnt really worked out for them for one reason or another so far. I think they will strangle the life out of Port and get over the line in the second semi.

bruschi

MANUTD99 wrote: »

What injuries have Freo? I think Matty White is a big doubt for Port. They'll certainly be going into the game with confidence now though.

In fairness though that 8th finish by Richmond was the most over hyped playoff finish I've heard in a while.

Ballantyne broke his jaw against Sydney. And key injuries at the moment include Michael Johnson and Luke McPharlin, which IMO are vital for them.

agree about Richmond too. Only for scraping by half a Sydney team they wouldnt have made it either, although the Eagles would still have lost to Port Adelaide, I dont think they would have been as embarrassing.

SSK

Port were exceptional in the first quarter, Richmond didn't have a hope unless they dominated the clearances as they had no way of counteracting Port's speed on the outside. Once they didn't it was game over.

To be honest I wasn't overly impressed by Freo at all against Sydney and losing Ballantyne is huge for them. I'd give Port more than a fighting chance of taking them. You would think the space at Subiaco would suit their running power but Freo are almost unbeatable there too. Should be a ripper.

Geelong were shocking in the second half on Friday night and will be up against it if North have one of those games they're capable of pulling out every so often. A rested and motivated Boomer is also a huge in for the Roos. Geelong should win it but it won't be easy. Hopefully will get along to it myself.

jackbhoy

MANUTD99 wrote: »

In fairness though that 8th finish by Richmond was the most over hyped playoff finish I've heard in a while.

It wasn't really about the finishing position. It was about a team that was 3-10 and looking good for wooden spoon going on a run to make finals by winning so many in a row, something that has not been achieved from that position ever before. They were playing awful footy and getting beaten by poor teams in first half of year, but outplayed pretty much everyone in second half and looked a completely different side.

Plus, Tiges are many peoples 'second' team and are seen as the hard luck story of the AFL for last 3 decades, so they get the perennial underdog support from most of media.

seipeal1

shanemkelly wrote: »

Slightly afraid of Port now :eek: though the Tigers were abysmally poor.
Should be two great games this weekend. Quite fancy the Kangas on Friday.
Go Freo!

I strongly fancy Geelong this weekend. They were outplayed last week and will really be up for it. I think they will have too much grunt for the Kangas.

Freo/Port . Wow, could be a classic. I think Port's first quarter last Sunday was the best I have seen in AFL. Not many teams would have withstood the onslaught. I do not think they will concede 9 in a row next Saturday either so I take them for a narrow victory.

Still have to strongly fancy a Hawthorne/Sydney final even though the Freo/Port winners will really put it up to them.

massdebater

seipeal1 wrote: »

I strongly fancy Geelong this weekend. They were outplayed last week and will really be up for it. I think they will have too much grunt for the Kangas.

Freo/Port . Wow, could be a classic. I think Port's first quarter last Sunday was the best I have seen in AFL. Not many teams would have withstood the onslaught. I do not think they will concede 9 in a row next Saturday either so I take them for a narrow victory.

Still have to strongly fancy a Hawthorne/Sydney final even though the Freo/Port winners will really put it up to them.

Agreed with Port's first quarter last weekend. One of the best quarters of footy I've ever seen, second maybe to Freo's second quarter against Sydney in the Prelim Final last year. Should be a great game.

Geelong are rightfully favourites for tonight's game but I think it's gonna be close. I read this week that Geelong have the highest scoring first quarters and highest scoring second quarters for the season, while North have the highest for third and fourth quarters. Think Geelong had the third highest amount of points conceded in the third and fourth quarters. Can't find the article I read these stats from but it's something along these lines. If North can keep it close by half time, my money will be on them to get the job done. A rested Boomer is a big plus for the Roos. The inclusion/non-inclusion of Stevie J could be the difference.

Still expecting a Swans/Hawks GF. They are the best two teams in the comp and would make for a great game.

jackbhoy

Think both games are hard to call this week.

Going to back North purely based on their current form and fact that Cats have lost Stevie J. Geelong are one of those teams that can be near impossible to be beat on their day but if Roo's senior players stand up I think they'll get it done.

Going for Freo in other one. Port are good but Richmond did a lot to make them look good last week. Look at that 1st quarter again and you can see Port forwards walking around inside 50 unmarked for long periods before ball kicked to them for uncontested mark. They will not get that comfy ride against Freo, even without some key guys in defence.

bruschi

Great result for the roos. Havent seen the game yet, but sounded like a cracker. I genuinely didnt see that one coming. I think North have a great side, and have shown they can beat any team on their day, but their consistency is too bad for me to predict them to be winning. Delighted for them though, hope they can push on now but my only fear for them is that Petrie and Boomer are still key players for them, but both will be gone within a couple of years.

Tigerandahalf

Who plays who now in the pre-lims?

bruschi

Great game today. Looked like port were going to be out of it by half time, but some woeful attack play by Freo meant there was never a huge gap in it. The second half by port was like a different team, and they completely dominated.

Port play hawthorn now, and north play Sydney.

MANUTD99

WOW, I really had us written off at half time. If Freo had taken their chances in the first half then it might have been too much for the Power. In saying that it, winning away in Perth is never easy.

What a performance by Wines. Hard to believe this kid is only 19. Gray and Windgard were also fantastic.

A very tough game with a lot of big knocks. Will be a lot of lads in the treatment room now getting ready for the MCG. Matty White took a few big knocks again.

What was the name of the lad from Freo who's shoulder popped out? 5 minutes later he was back on the pitch!

Haven't seen much of Hawthorn this year apart from the game against Power and Sydney. I know they lost 5 games, was any of them at MCG?

massdebater

MANUTD99 wrote: »

WOW, I really had us written off at half time. If Freo had taken their chances in the first half then it might have been too much for the Power. In saying that it, winning away in Perth is never easy.

What a performance by Wines. Hard to believe this kid is only 19. Gray and Windgard were also fantastic.

A very tough game with a lot of big knocks. Will be a lot of lads in the treatment room now getting ready for the MCG. Matty White took a few big knocks again.

What was the name of the lad from Freo who's shoulder popped out? 5 minutes later he was back on the pitch!

Haven't seen much of Hawthorn this year apart from the game against Power and Sydney. I know they lost 5 games, was any of them at MCG?

They lost to Geelong at the MCG around Easter time but all the rest of them were at different venues. They've beaten Geelong twice at the G since then. Port did beat them earlier in the season at the Adelaide Oval but that was back when the Hawks had a lot of injuries and Port were beating everyone at the Oval. Port have their tails up at the minute so it should be a good game but with pretty much a fully fit squad and home advantage, I expect Hawthorn to win this. Hawthorn by 5+ goals for me.

skippymac6

Boomer cleared to play this weekend after Selwood downplayed the incident. Good to see that as he would have been a huge loss and very sporting from Selwood too.

bruschi

skippymac6 wrote: »

Boomer cleared to play this weekend after Selwood downplayed the incident. Good to see that as he would have been a huge loss and very sporting from Selwood too.

To be honest, it shows the hypocrisy of the MRP. Fyfe was done for a very similar incident, but he was actually tackling. Harvey was trying to take Selwood out of it.

I said at the time Fyfe should only have got a reprimand, but there is no consistency by letting Harvey off. Finals and sentiment shouldn't be deciding factors.

In all, it's probably the right decision, but came about the wrong way