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Vladamir Putin a clear and present danger to peace in Europe.

gandalf

Recent behaviour by Mr Putin has confirmed in my view that this man is a clear and present danger to peace in Europe and especially his neighbours. Ukraine is feeling the ire of this man ambitions right now but according to an article in the UK Independent even Finland need to watch out. This man wants to recreate a combination of Stalin's USSR and Tsar Nicholas's Imperial Russia. If half of what is being said in this article is true then we are in serious trouble is this man is not faced down now.

After annexing Crimea and with troops massed on the border of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will not stop trying to expand Russia until he has “conquered” Belarus, the Baltic states and Finland, one of his closest former advisers has said.

The whole article is here.

I particularly find the comment about sanctions interesting but I disagree with it. We need to isolate them with severe sanctions until there is a real change in behaviour.

On the subject of what can be done to stop the progress of Russian expansion, Mr Illarionov said sanctions had helped rather than hindered Mr Putin because they “confirm his view of the world” – and that of “the Kremlin’s propaganda”.

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Iwasfrozen

The sooner Europe has an alternative to Russian energy the sooner harder sanctions can be put in place.

Manach

I think the response is, with what army. Russia is a fairly competent regional power. It has the capacity to extend its influence power over neighbouring countries and has the political will to do so. There is also the institutional memory of the Russian elites who will remember actions against them, based on their time of troubles which explains there wish to keep on eye on the Poles.
From my reading of accounts of Russian involvement in Finland (their independance and Winter War), moves against such would be meet with considerable resistance. However, would a Western Europe actually support them instead of spouting pious platitudes is unlikely based on previous historocal form and as for the US, domestic considerations will always override vague promises of aid. Thus whilst it is always nice to play the Slavic bogyman card, it was an engaged Russia that keep the concert of Europe in place for nearly a century and not newspaper platitudes.

Elmer Blooker

How I laughed at this latest xenophobic drivel - Putin wants to restore Russia to its former Tsarist glory by annexing countries that are EU members!

Do people actually believe this kind of stuff? Even the Sun couldn't come up with this kind of make believe.

Technoprisoner

what a load of propaganda... the reason this whole thing happened was because the Ukraine needed a bailout...they had 2 options.. get an imf/eu bailout, but to do this they needed to join the euro...or Russia said they would bail them out. When the government decided it would go with the Russian bailout, the pro European side started riots. Putin did not start this crisis so i cant see how he wants to expand Russia. the Ukraine gained independence in 1990 and still has a sizable Russian community particularity around the border regions. the pro Russian community i believe wanted to rejoin Russia and distance itself from the euro bailout which would make more sense to them as they would have a stronger tie with Russia rather than the eu both economically and sociably .

Nodin

gandalf wrote: »

Recent behaviour by Mr Putin has confirmed in my view that this man is a clear and present danger to peace in Europe and especially his neighbours. Ukraine is feeling the ire of this man ambitions right now but according to an article in the UK Independent even Finland need to watch out. This man wants to recreate a combination of Stalin's USSR and Tsar Nicholas's Imperial Russia. If half of what is being said in this article is true then we are in serious trouble is this man is not faced down now.

The whole article is here.

I particularly find the comment about sanctions interesting but I disagree with it. We need to isolate them with severe sanctions until there is a real change in behaviour.

While he may have designs on eastern Ukraine and Belarus, I think throwing in the Baltic states is over egging the pudding there.

DazMarz

Whatever about Belarus and Ukraine... if Russia entered the Baltic States (NATO and EU members) or Finland (EU member) or any other number of independent, sovereign states in Eastern Europe, the response would be a little more heavy than it is now.

Vladimir Putin is no gobshíte. He knows he where he can rattle the sabre and get away with it. The Baltic States and/or Finland are not places that he can get away with it, due to their membership of either NATO and/or the EU.

[Deleted User]

There may be war if Putin attempts to use the Ukraine reacquisition model in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which unlike Ukraine are both NATO and EU members. If NATO does not respond militarily, it may go the way of the pre-WWII Munich Agreement and League of Nations. One preventive measure may be to increase the NATO military presence in these 3 nations now.

Just like Ukraine, all the Baltics have Russian-speaking/minorities. This model is not unique to Putin. Pre-WWII Germany used a similar model to acquire the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia, later to occupy all of Czechoslovakia, as will probably happen with the Ukraine.

DarkyHughes

Putin will destroy all the European armies with one hand tied behind his back while riding a horse.

comongethappy

DarkyHughes wrote: »

Putin will destroy all the European armies with one hand tied behind his back while riding a horse.

Not even Vlad in his gilded office would believe that.

weisses

I believe that Putin is realizing that he is in over his head and wants to find a way to backtrack but still looks like a winner in the end

The MH17 crash messed things up for him and his plans

RandomName2

gandalf wrote: »

Recent behaviour by Mr Putin has confirmed in my view that this man is a clear and present danger to peace in Europe and especially his neighbours. Ukraine is feeling the ire of this man ambitions right now but according to an article in the UK Independent even Finland need to watch out. This man wants to recreate a combination of Stalin's USSR and Tsar Nicholas's Imperial Russia. If half of what is being said in this article is true then we are in serious trouble is this man is not faced down now.

The whole article is here.

I particularly find the comment about sanctions interesting but I disagree with it. We need to isolate them with severe sanctions until there is a real change in behaviour.

Change in behaviour?

I've no love for Putin, but the current state of affairs was in part brought on by the EU trying to extend its sphere of influence to include the Ukraine. Having European heads of state turning up in Kiev during a predominantly internal conflict was ill-advised. Posturing and sabre ratting from UK and US in the aftermath of being the losers in a land-grab situation hasn't helped either.

What sort of response did they expect from Russia? It traditionally sees all of eastern Europe as its backyard, and the Uraine has had to deftly balance is vital relations with both West and East. Having a collection of NATO countries huffing and blowing saying that are virtually prepared for war to save face is PR gone mad.

All we need now is for talks about Moldova...

weisses wrote: »

The MH17 crash messed things up for him and his plans

The problem when you are aiding insurgents, but they aren't under your direct control. Putin has a difficulty of extricating himself from the liability of the rebels without looking to an internal audience as if he is betraying Russian interests.

seamus

What Putin would like and what he will realistically go for are two very different things.

I do feel that he's pushing back towards rebuilding a Soviet Union as his end goal. He grew up in the glory days of the USSR, when the arms and space races were in full flow and Soviet propaganda would have been at its strongest - stories of the greatness of Stalin, the invincibility of the Union and their victory in WWII ringing in his ears day and night.

The effect of this cannot be underestimated. When the Union fell, he was still working his way up through the civil service, no doubt with his eyes on the prize at the top. He probably feels that the Union was failed by Gorbachev and his contemporaries who allowed it to collapse and be broken up by western influence. He may also feel that he was cheated his opportunity to lead the Union into a new era of greatness and is now seeking to recapture that.

There are quite a few echoes here of Germany between the two World Wars - economic devastation, followed by strong economic growth coupled with a pseudo-dictatorship political environment and a huge surge in nationalism.

The incursions into Ukraine on the false pretense of protecting "ethnic Russians", coupled with very strong anti-immigration sentiment in Russia in recent times are a precursor to the same kind of crimes we saw in Nazi Germany. From the imprisonment of gay people, will lead to the euthanasia of the mentally ill and subgroups like gypsies, will lead to things like the expulsion or even imprisonment of non-Russians from Russia, Crimea and other parts of occupied Ukraine, as well as small test incursions into other areas along their western borders under the banner of "protecting ethnic Russians".

MH17 probably delayed his plans somewhat, but the signs are all there. We know from past mistakes that appeasement and the softly-softly approach doesn't work and only gives psychopaths like Putin time to consolidate their power and stir up support in their own countries.

Nobody wants a war, but the US and EU need to make it clear that Russia needs to get back inside its borders and stay there.

gandalf

You take one objective look at Russia today and it is regressing massively from a democratic state into an Dictatorship. Minorities are being decriminated against. There is no real freedom of expression any more with even Bloggers now being compelled to register with the authorities if they have over 3000 followers. Journalists are paying the ultimate price if they do criticise the authorities.

The latest journalist to pay this price is Timur Kuashev.

http://en.rsf.org/russia-independent-journalist-murdered-in-01-08-2014,46745.html

What passes for news reporting in Russia these days is propaganda and in some cases blatent lies.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-trip-to-the-site-of-the-crash-of-flight-mh-17-a-983268.html

renegademaster

gandalf wrote: »

Recent behaviour by Mr Putin has confirmed in my view that this man is a clear and present danger to peace in Europe and especially his neighbours. Ukraine is feeling the ire of this man ambitions right now but according to an article in the UK Independent even Finland need to watch out. This man wants to recreate a combination of Stalin's USSR and Tsar Nicholas's Imperial Russia. If half of what is being said in this article is true then we are in serious trouble is this man is not faced down now.

The whole article is here.

I particularly find the comment about sanctions interesting but I disagree with it. We need to isolate them with severe sanctions until there is a real change in behaviour.

he seems sound enough to me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHibmiuqTd0

K-9

renegademaster wrote: »

he seems sound enough to me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHibmiuqTd0

Mod:

It is frowned on to just post you tube videos and links on the forum. I'd recommend posting up a summary of what the video is about.

SeanW

Nodin wrote: »

While he may have designs on eastern Ukraine and Belarus, I think throwing in the Baltic states is over egging the pudding there.

Estonia is vulnerable under the same criteria to Russian scumbaggery as Ukraine is - in both cases the Soviet Union moved large numbers of Russian "planters" to both regions in an attempt to exterminate those nationalities. We in Ireland should all be familiar with this story because it's exactly what the Brits did to Ireland in centuries past - and we have Northern Ireland as a memento.

In both cases, large scale deaths resulted among the Estonian and Ukrainian people from policies by the Soviet Union to exterminate those nationalities. In the former case in particular, if an Estonian gave any clue that they felt they were Estonian, the Soviets would send them to a Siberian gulag to die. Many more fled their homeland because it was a commie ****hole. In fact, at home I have an Estonian "commemorative Kroon" folder from the Estonian central bank, that tells the story of how when the Soviets invaded, an unknown central bank employee hid a Kroon printing plate, because that individual likely knew that the Soviets would destroy it (as they did of anything Estonian they could find). The plate was found around ~2000 or so and a commemorative Kroon note/folder issued for it.

I know that you consider these multiple acts of genocide by the Soviet Union to be "incidental" because you explicitly said so.

The thing is, we can forgive people for genocides, especially when decades pass, the people originally involved are all dead, and most importantly the people in whose name it was done recognise it and are genuinely remorseful, and try to work with the people that are left to resolve outstanding issues in a fair and equitable way:

The UK's stance toward Ireland and Northern Ireland has changed dramatically between today and 200, 50 or even 25 years ago.
Modern Japan has nothing in common with pre-WWII Japan. Same for Germany.
The U.S. has tried to do good things for what remains of the First Nations People.
Even Turkey is embarrassed enough by Armenian genocide to take the childish action of banning anyone from acknowledging it.

Russia has shown no such contrition for the genocides of the Soviet Union. Their modern attitude to peoples such as to groups such as the Ukranians and to a lesser extent the Estonians stinks.

mickmackey1

At least the sanctions announced by Putin today may cause the two-faced Western hypocrites to think twice.

There's only so long they can get away with blatant double standards while sickeningly claiming to occupy the high moral ground.

comongethappy

mickmackey1 wrote: »

At least the sanctions announced by Putin today may cause the two-faced Western hypocrites to think twice.

Indeed....

A country dependent on western food imports considering the barring of food imports....

They must be getting desperate.....
Hope Muscovites remember where to queue for their bread & beets.

Elmer Blooker

comongethappy wrote: »

Indeed....

A country dependent on western food imports considering the barring of food imports....

They must be getting desperate.....
Hope Muscovites remember where to queue for their bread & beets.

Hope Irish workers in the agricultural sector remember where to queue for their dole.
Dependent on western food imports? Where are you getting your information?

Nodin

SeanW wrote: »

Estonia is vulnerable under the same criteria to Russian scumbaggery as Ukraine is - in both cases the Soviet Union moved large numbers of Russian "planters" to both regions in an attempt to exterminate those nationalities. We in Ireland should all be familiar with this story because it's exactly what the Brits did to Ireland in centuries past - and we have Northern Ireland as a memento. .

Estonia is a member of Nato.

SeanW wrote: »

I know that you consider these multiple acts of genocide by the Soviet Union to be "incidental" because you explicitly said so..

Link and quotes please.

FTA69

I was about to say. I know a few Estonians, and while they definitely think the Russians are a shower of bastards, I've never heard them speak of genocide.

gandalf

FTA69 wrote: »

I was about to say. I know a few Estonians, and while they definitely think the Russians are a shower of bastards, I've never heard them speak of genocide.

Estonia

Mass deportations of Estonians. A tool of ethnic cleansing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_deportations_from_Estonia

http://estonia.eu/about-estonia/history/soviet-deportations-from-estonia-in-1940s.html

Ukraine

Maybe this is why the Ukraine do not want to be part of greater Russia. Seven Million people starved to death thanks to Comrade Stalin.

http://www.historyplace.com/worldhistory/genocide/stalin.htm

http://www.unitedhumanrights.org/genocide/ukraine_famine.htm

Crimea

"A large number of deportees (more than 100,000 according to a 1960s survey by Crimean Tatar activists) died from starvation or disease as a direct result of deportation."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars

Makes you wonder whats happening to that minority now.

Sand

FTA69 wrote: »

I was about to say. I know a few Estonians, and while they definitely think the Russians are a shower of bastards, I've never heard them speak of genocide.

Genocide is a stretch. There were mass deportations/executions/conscription of tens of thousands ethnic Estonians in 1940 (when the Soviets invaded Estonia) and 1944 (when they "liberated" Estonia). The Estonian government called it a crime against humanity. And the Soviets themselves denounced it as a terrible crime as part of the destalinisation process in the 1950s.

Basically standard operating procedure for minorities in the glorious Soviet Empire. Smash the elite. Terrorise the population. Insert loyal settlers.

But I wouldn't call it genocide.

@Elmer Blooker

How I laughed at this latest xenophobic drivel - Putin wants to restore Russia to its former Tsarist glory by annexing countries that are EU members!
Do people actually believe this kind of stuff? Even the Sun couldn't come up with this kind of make believe.

I remember people saying something similar when suddenly large groups of heavily armed, polite men in uniform suddenly started appearing in Crimea. Back when it was Ukrainian.

It would seem alarmist...except Putin is annexing cneighbours, and the EU haven't yet indicated they are that interested in doing anything more than making the process less awkward.

Manach

Whilst genocide is a loaded term, during the Soviet phase they did seem to come close to the mass cleansing of incorporated nations to ensure that enemies of the state did not wreck their version of Utopia [Source various books Burleigh and Snyder ]. However I'd doubt that Putin is filled with the same level of drive to populate the area with Great Russians (leaving aside Chenkynia).

comongethappy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Dependent on western food imports? Where are you getting your information?

This new thing they call the information superhighway..... It's gonna be huge!

And...

And

Washington Post wrote:

Russian imports of U.S. agricultural products total about $1 billion a year. From the European Union, the figure was $15.8 billion in 2013. Imports include grains and other raw products that feed Russia’s 144 million residents.
..........
The restrictions may drive up the price of ordinary foodstuffs by shrinking supply as demand remains constant. Even many domestically produced foods in Russia depend on foreign imports for some of their ingredients. Russia is already contending with rising inflation, and the ruble has slipped 9.2 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

So adding in other western nations like Aus/Nz & Norway who export a huge amount of fish & meat to Russia, 'The West' is close to putting 1/4 of the food on a Russian families plate.

Also.....

Financial Times wrote:

Russia imports more than 40 per cent of its food and the country’s retailers say a quick switch to domestic sources is impossible. The central bank and the parts of the government in charge of economic policy have also argued that broad food import bans could drive up inflation,which stood at 7.9 per cent in the first half of the year

All from that wicked decadent capitalist Google.
Don't try it Elmer, I'd say you'd hate it!

Anyway, its incredibly poor governing to leave Russia so exposed like that for food.

Though at least Czar Shirtless was smart enough to omit all EU meat & dairy from his ban.... Otherwise the Russian people would face considerable difficulty within weeks.

sin_city

Nodin wrote: »

Estonia is a member of Nato.

Isn't that the reason for the problem?

Bush senior agreed not to expand Nato into Warsaw Pact countries.

Imagine Russia set up missiles in Mexico and Canada and formed a military Treaty with all other Caribbean countries.

There is a serious lacking in critical thinking and historical knowledge on the events that have led towards where we are now.

The US is using the old method the British used to use of taking over a country(in the US's case via puppet government) and then steal the resources of the country to prolong US hegemony.

The BRICS are facilitating the end of US dominance as we know it by not using the US dollar and this is one of the main reasons for “NATO’s” action in Ukraine.

Smaller countries that chose not to use the US Dollar had their leaders executed...Putin and Russia can’t be pushed around like that.

Nodin

sin_city wrote: »

Isn't that the reason for the problem?
.............

Invading a member of NATO would have far more direct repercussions than the grabbing of Crimea.

the_syco

Manach wrote: »

I think the response is, with what army. Russia is a fairly competent regional power. It has the capacity to extend its influence power over neighbouring countries and has the political will to do so.

Putin is Russias answer to Bush; doesn't care what people think, shall do it anyway. Having seen how Bush invaded Iraq over some WMD's, Russia invaded Crimea over some dubious claim. At the time, you had people swearing there was WMD's, and like Iraq, the claims over Crimea will probably be disputed later in history.

Technoprisoner wrote: »

the reason this whole thing happened was because the Ukraine needed a bailout...

IMO, Ukraine was to Russia as Poland was to Germany; a trial to see what would happen if they took it.

seamus wrote: »

There are quite a few echoes here of Germany between the two World Wars - economic devastation, followed by strong economic growth coupled with a pseudo-dictatorship political environment and a huge surge in nationalism.

Germany had to branch out to gain assets. Because of oil, Russian just bought what it needed, and from a few videos I've seen, it's Command & Conquer Red Alert 2 with the money cheat turned on.

comongethappy wrote: »

Czar Shirtless

I'm so robing this phrase!

K-9

It seems Estonia , ukraine etc.are seen as Eastern Bloc Russian satelites by some. What the actual populations thinks is subversient to what Mother Russia wants.

sin_city

Nodin wrote: »

Invading a member of NATO would have far more direct repercussions than the grabbing of Crimea.

Why is it a NATO country in the first place?