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Aussie dollar falling

s20101938

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

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AngryHippie

Agree 100%^

Some troubling noises in France for definite, with the LePen result.

We live in interesting times

catbear

1$aus = €.68.

I'll take that spike, thank you very much!

sin_city

JUNE 5....look out for that date and the actions of the ECB.

I think we could push through 70 cents if rates are lowered and they are expected to be lowered.

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

JUNE 5....look out for that date and the actions of the ECB.

I think we could push through 70 cents if rates are lowered and they are expected to be lowered.

I reckon you're right although Germany still has a big sway and was probably the only country where the incumbents did well at the euro elections. Interesting times.

SpaceTime

I think you're totally overestimating what the ECB is allowed to do. It's not like the Fed or the Australian Central Bank.

The way the ECB is constructed it has only one remit : to control inflation and keep it below but close to 2% . It some role in 'safeguarding the stability of the Eurozone' but that translates to 'protecting the value of the Euro'.

It has absolutely no remit whatsoever to provide economic stimulus and any attempt to do anything even approaching that has resulted in the Germans attempting to take action in their Supreme Court (Constitutional Court).

Any QE programme in Europe will be done somehow indirectly. In fact, that's sort of what's happening already using very, very low interest rates from the ECB and there were some slight of hand type operations through the national central banks.

The Fed or other central banks could just print money and stimulate the economy, that's just not something the ECB can do, at least not directly.

The ECB is highly technocratic and really is almost blinkered and prevented from paying attention to political issues.

Whether that remains the situation or not is questionable as I think there's going to be enormous pressure put on, especially from France due to the Le Pen successes in the European elections.

Also the picture in Europe (other than France) isn't that gloomy at all :

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/28/uk-eurozone-sentiment-idUKKBN0E80WP20140528

sin_city

Only time will tell....all I know is that they keep talking about deflation which is BS in my opinion but the only way to deal with the debt is to monetize it...It's not like the economies will ever grow to pay it down to low levels in relation to GDP.

res ipsa

I'm putting money against the euro at the moment up until June 5th. That is Aud/eur. The trend is your friend. Mostly though I would buy USD.

sin_city

68.8 at the moment....I think it's a 6 month high...maybe more....I think it will pass 69 cents this week.

res ipsa

sin_city wrote: »

68.8 at the moment....I think it's a 6 month high...maybe more....I think it will pass 69 cents this week.

It just has.

colman1212

69.27 at the moment. Flying up.

catbear

colman1212 wrote: »

69.27 at the moment. Flying up.

Brilliant!

Legend100

pity i have no savings left after already sending it all back at lower rates

roll on payday next week and hopefully the rate doesn't go back down!

sin_city

I don't think it will go down, at least not in the short term.

The Aussie dollar has some momentum at the moment and once it breaks the 70 cents mark, which I expect later today or sometime this week it should stay above their for a while.

I would prefer it to consolidate between 70 cents and 75 cents for a few months and hopefully then move on again.

Have a look at the AUD VS EUR since Jan this year....nice looking graph

Harold Weiss

eagerv wrote: »

In Feb 2009 it was 1$=0.50€.

Cannot see the dollar dropping to that level again...

Could very well go back there. Look at stocks for example.
DJIA was 6626 in March 2009 and currently stands at ~17,000

DJIA Google Finance

Capital flooded Canada and Australia ca 2008/2009 due to recession in EU/US and their economies boomed. Maybe the bubble is now bursting.

sin_city

Harold Weiss wrote: »

Could very well go back there. Look at stocks for example.
DJIA was 6626 in March 2009 and currently stands at ~17,000

DJIA Google Finance

Capital flooded Canada and Australia ca 2008/2009 due to recession in EU/US and their economies boomed. Maybe the bubble is now bursting.

The Europe, the US, the UK and Japan are fcuked.

There will be a collapse of the US dollar sometime in the next few years.

What the current situation is coming down to is the interest rates:

Australia is 2.5%
ECB has moved to 0.15%

Also, the whole issue of negative interest rates is huge. Expect to get charged for having money in your bank account in Ireland in the near future....How do you think that will affect the Euro?

The stock market is in a huge bubble. If you want to see how well Europe and the US are doing have a look at the unemployment figures….and in the US I mean the real unemployment figures…Look at the labour participation rate.

The Aussie Dollar lost lots of value in the recession due to a flight to the safe haven US Dollar but the dollar is no longer a safe haven and you won’t see a repeat of that again.

res ipsa

sin_city wrote: »

I don't think it will go down, at least not in the short term.

The Aussie dollar has some momentum at the moment and once it breaks the 70 cents mark, which I expect later today or sometime this week it should stay above their for a while.

I would prefer it to consolidate between 70 cents and 75 cents for a few months and hopefully then move on again.

Have a look at the AUD VS EUR since Jan this year....nice looking graph

Looking sticky at 69.

Slideways

res ipsa wrote: »

Looking sticky at 69.

69 can be sticky alright :pac:

sin_city

Good....better to consolidate rather than shoot up like crazy.

aboysham

sin_city wrote: »

Good....better to consolidate rather than shoot up like crazy.

Bloody Aussie humour.

Timistry

I have a term amount that is about to mature. Do you reckon I should take a portion of it and send it home now or roll the whole lot over and use the approx 2% interest rate as a sort of hedge against any Xchange rate fluctuations?

commited

Timistry wrote: »

I have a term amount that is about to mature. Do you reckon I should take a portion of it and send it home now or roll the whole lot over and use the approx 2% interest rate as a sort of hedge against any Xchange rate fluctuations?

Not going to recommend whether to keep it in or leave it, but if you do keep it in Australia, open a UBank account and enjoy 4.37% interest, not 2%

the flananator

Taken a bit of a tumble today.

catbear

Tumble after Glenn Stevens said Aus$ was overvalued and that another rate drop was possible. Strong employment figures out of the US too.

sin_city

catbear wrote: »

Tumble after Glenn Stevens said Aus$ was overvalued and that another rate drop was possible. Strong employment figures out of the US too.

Yeah I read his BS. He said there’s too much risky lending…Well, raise rates and end that…On the US strong employment numbers..Almost 523,000 full time jobs were lost and 800,000 part time jobs were created. Their labour participation rate went down and is at the lowest rate in 35 years.

Total propaganda, The Aussie dollar should really be higher. Sometimes you get the feeling that people are pulling strings to tell the western central bankers to say certain things to protect the US Dollar because the rest of the world is starting to ignore the US Dollar.

I still expect the Australian dollar to move back above 69 cents..It has been sliding up again today.

catbear

I'm inclined to agree sin-city, the aus$ is an extension of China now. The Australian domestic economy could tank but the currency would stay strong giving no relief.

sin_city

Back above 69 cents despite that nonsense from Glenn Stevens last week.

I expect Europe's central bank to start increasing the money printing in the next few months which will weaken it.

Incidentally, all of this is going to end badly, the main concern for those in power is to kick the can down the road so that it doesn’t end badly on their watch.

At least the Liberal party here and doing something to address budget issues.

sin_city

The dollar is really pushing up again...It still hasn't broken through 70 cents but it looks like it's only going in one direction.

Batgurl

Just tipped 70c on xe.com

catbear

Batgurl wrote: »

Just tipped 70c on xe.com

I hope this trend continues until I cash out my super!

FernandoTorres

Decent article here on the various factors that influence the $AUD.

https://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-experts/david-taylor/article/-/24682071/aussie-dollar-just-how-low-can-it-go-against-the-greenback/