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2014 Champion Hurdle

Themonkey

Taught id start a thread after going through the footage of the trials and watching annie power today i think The FLY is going to be very hard to beat i think jezki and our conor are the 2 to challenge him.I watched the kempton race again and im not to sure what to make of My Tent Or Yours i think he could improve plenty more but at the moment im thinking he could be a 2015 horse but my main point of this thread has to be the champion hurdle fav has to be the most overrated horse in training how he is fav is beyond me maybe im missing something but ill be stunned if he is in the first 3 never mind wins as bookies predict... 1 The FLY 2 Our Conor 3 My Tent Or Yours ..cant wait for jezki over a fence

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mdwexford

Second guessing how much trainers have left to work on is pointless.

Lol at thinking Mullins will pull UDS from the race because he has the beating of HF, think the owners might have something to say about that.

Huntley

A lot of guesswork there. I'd question the thinking that one horse has plenty of improvement while one left his race on the track the last day. Both will likely be primed to the minute when they turn up on the course in five weeks and we should assume that to be the case.

I fail to see how MTOY was lucky in the Christmas Hurdle. It looked like he was going to crack when he was let down, changing his legs constantly and stuck his head in the air. He went three lengths down at one stage but approaching the last had cut that deficit to within a length. TNO obviously lost momentum but his lead was shortening prior to the error and he regathered his stride almost immediately. He was then eyeballed by MTOY and comprehensively out battled to the line. The further they went the more assertive MTOY was. The jump at the last doesn't excuse what happened in the last 100 yards when both horses had an opportunity to get their head in front.

If Our Conor doesn't win the CH I don't think it will be as a result of jockey error either.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

A lot of guesswork there. I'd question the thinking that one horse has plenty of improvement while one left his race on the track the last day. Both will likely be primed to the minute when they turn up on the course in five weeks and we should assume that to be the case.

I fail to see how MTOY was lucky in the Christmas Hurdle. It looked like he was going to crack when he was let down, changing his legs constantly and stuck his head in the air. He went three lengths down at one stage but approaching the last had cut that deficit to within a length. TNO obviously lost momentum but his lead was shortening prior to the error and he regathered his stride almost immediately. He was then eyeballed by MTOY and comprehensively out battled to the line. The further they went the more assertive MTOY was. The jump at the last doesn't excuse what happened in the last 100 yards when both horses had an opportunity to get their head in front.

If Our Conor doesn't win the CH I don't think it will be as a result of jockey error either.

To be fair TNO landed almost sideways over the last and Sam lost an iron. Its tough enough being in a driving finish against AP with both irons.

No doubt the way MT battled back was impressive and looks to have it all, I would still think TNO will finish ahead of him in March.

That said I agree Our Conor will win, though UDS lining up could very well bump him into second.

jimjamcos

mdwexford wrote: »

Second guessing how much trainers have left to work on is pointless.

Lol at thinking Mullins will pull UDS from the race because he has the beating of HF, think the owners might have something to say about that.

He could very easily be the beating of HF without necessarily having the beating of him. There's a difference.

Huntley

The Champion Hurdle is going to be run at a decent clip as always. Not running UDS to accommodate a less severe gallop for Hurricane Fly wouldn't make sense. The blueprint to get HF beat is common knowledge now, something will force the pace regardless and Willie Mullins knows this.

faoile@n

Huntley wrote: »

The Champion Hurdle is going to be run at a decent clip as always. Not running UDS to accommodate a less severe gallop for Hurricane Fly wouldn't make sense. The blueprint to get HF beat is common knowledge now, something will force the pace regardless and Willie Mullins knows this.

If the blueprint is common knowledge why has he won 9 races on the bounce since his last defeat?

Looking through the entries I don't see an obvious front runner.

Only 18 runners left declared and considering the strength in depth in this years field I'm imagine a lot of the no hopers will go elsewhere.

I don't think front running will suit any at the top of the market bar Un Des Sceaux.

jimjamcos

faoile@n wrote: »

If the blueprint is common knowledge why has he won 9 races on the bounce since his last defeat?

Looking through the entries I don't see an obvious front runner.

Only 18 runners left declared and considering the strength in depth in this years field I'm imagine a lot of the no hopers will go elsewhere.

I don't think front running will suit any at the top of the market bar Un Des Sceaux.

Jezki maybe, at a push. Could be worth trying different tactics with him.

Huntley

faoile@n wrote: »

If the blueprint is common knowledge why has he won 9 races on the bounce since his last defeat?

Just because the formula is there to get him beat does not mean it is easily/readily applied.

faoile@n wrote: »

Looking through the entries I don't see an obvious front runner.

It was the very same last year. I don't recall any Champion Hurdle consisting of a load of horses looking around at the start waiting to see who is going to set the tempo. It just doesn't happen.

Pulling UDS from the race, under the assumption that a more moderate/sedate gallop will ensue without him, would be nonsensical. There will be something to force the issue here and nobody should expect anything different. I don't think Mullins does either and as such the participation of UDS will not hinge on the above.

mdwexford

jimjamcos wrote: »

He could very easily be the beating of HF without necessarily having the beating of him. There's a difference.

Never said there wasn't.

Him setting a breakneck gallop would certainly not suit HF if he could sustain it for most of the race.

I'm just saying Mullins isn't going to pull UDS to give HF a better chance of winning because he has a soft spot for him as the poster who's post seems to have disappeared claimed.

hucklebuck

Ruby was on RUK at the weekend (half term report, I think). When discussing the Champion he was asked if there was no way he could be prised off The Fly, he smirked and said never say never. This was the tone of the show when being asked about his ride in other races.

He did say if UDS was in the race and he was riding The Fly there is no way he would let him have a soft lead.

If UDS does run and can maintain the gallop or Our Conor picks it up from him cruising we could very well see a new record time for the going.

kfallon

mdwexford wrote: »

Never said there wasn't.

Him setting a breakneck gallop would certainly not suit HF if he could sustain it for most of the race.

HF is a Grade 1 winner over 2m 4f, he has plenty of stamina in him, if UDS set a breakneck gallop there are others in the field I would worry about before HF tbh. They went plenty quick enough in last year's CH.

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

Ruby was on RUK at the weekend (half term report, I think). When discussing the Champion he was asked if there was no way he could be prised off The Fly, he smirked and said never say never. This was the tone of the show when being asked about his ride in other races.

He did say if UDS was in the race and he was riding The Fly there is no way he would let him have a soft lead.

If UDS does run and can maintain the gallop or Our Conor picks it up from him cruising we could very well see a new record time for the going.

It wouldn't be in the best interest of the horse to run him in the champion at This stage. 1st time in graded company and he's in the hardest race of the season. I can't see it happening

hucklebuck

ste2010 wrote: »

It wouldn't be in the best interest of the horse to run him in the champion at This stage. 1st time in graded company and he's in the hardest race of the season. I can't see it happening

I might agree if he was a horse who would be dropped in and in the middle of the hustle and bustle in a larger field than he has been running in. Once they jump off he mightn't see a rival until 4f out if at all.

If he were mine he would be running.

Panrich

I get the feeling that Willie Mullins has avoided good horses with UDS because his style of running means he takes a lot out of himself and you can't go to the well too often with horses like that. For instance, running him around Leopardstown against HF and OC would have been a very hard race. He's got a big race in him, but they don't want it to be a trial.

eljoker

I can't get away from HF and OC. I don't think there will be much between them. Maybe it's the green blinkers again but it's how I see it. OC at his age will improve with every run and even though he got 2lbs and HF was pulling away I think when they hit cheltenham there will be nothing between them.

mdwexford

kfallon wrote: »

HF is a Grade 1 winner over 2m 4f, he has plenty of stamina in him, if UDS set a breakneck gallop there are others in the field I would worry about before HF tbh. They went plenty quick enough in last year's CH.

He has stamina but a fast pace at Cheltenham doesn't suit him as we have seen the past two years when he was being bustled along to keep in touch, Huntley has gone in depth about this before and I agree with him.

Fast pace should suit the other 3 main rivals better than him imo.

supremenovice

Any word on Cinders and Ashes lining up for the Champion?

nobody told me

supremenovice wrote: »

Any word on Cinders and Ashes lining up for the Champion?

Wouldn't be in the first 3 if he started now.

eljoker

Anyone going over on the Tuesday? It's by far the best day in my eyes

BumperD

eljoker wrote: »

Anyone going over on the Tuesday? It's by far the best day in my eyes

Yes and agree re best days racing. I'm like a child waiting for Christmas. Going the full week mon to Friday and to be honest, there is little else occupying my mind right now than the festival.

ste2010

supremenovice wrote: »

Any word on Cinders and Ashes lining up for the Champion?

The only champion C and A will be appearing is in the Liffey champion article on the history of the supreme

jimjamcos

UDS's debut in France (on better ground) for anyone interested..

http://www.federation-ouest.fr/hippodrome/428/machecoul/19-02-2012/37741/course-6-prix-prince-d-avril-videos.html

NaiveMelodies

jimjamcos wrote: »

UDS's debut in France (on better ground) for anyone interested..

http://www.federation-ouest.fr/hippodrome/428/machecoul/19-02-2012/37741/course-6-prix-prince-d-avril-videos.html

C'etait tres bien.

What has intrigued me though is why every horse begins with 'U' in that race?

finbarrk

eljoker wrote: »

Anyone going over on the Tuesday? It's by far the best day in my eyes

Yep. The best day. Got the £ in BOI yesterday!

bellybuster12

eljoker wrote: »

Anyone going over on the Tuesday? It's by far the best day in my eyes

Going tue/wed/thurs and i cant wait. Champion hurdle is the race of the meet.

yaboya1

only1stevo wrote: »

C'etait tres bien.

What has intrigued me though is why every horse begins with 'U' in that race?

They have races like that in France all the time, where the whole field have names beginning with the same letter. Not sure why, but obviously a condition of the race...

NaiveMelodies

yaboya1 wrote: »

They have races like that in France all the time, where the whole field have names beginning with the same letter. Not sure why, but obviously a condition of the race...

Ah cheers! I thought it might have been something to do with a particular breed or type of horse only being named with a U....
I struggle to find any logic behind that, what a crew the French are.

hucklebuck

I think the letter has to do with the year foaled.

The Aga Khan names his with the first few letters of the sire so has plenty of Zar and Sam horses.

Bangor Billy

The first letter of the horses name indicates the year it was born. It think this just applies to AQPS horses, ie non-thoroughbreds. If you look at the entries for the Grand National for example you can see

10 year olds - Quinz, Quiscover Fontaine
9 years olds - Renard, Roi du Mee
8 year olds - Sire Collonges
7 year olds - Toner d'Oudaries, Tour des Champs

etc

byronbay2

Annie Power drifting like a barge for The CH on Betfair over the past couple of days. Currently 16/1 (only for €57 mind you) and no apparent takers at that price. Over €200 available at 14/1 or better. On the other hand, pretty solid at 7/2 for The Stayers. Does someone know something??