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Price increases and decreases watch.

Hogey007

Any of you that posted on here last season will be familar with these two sites and as per last season we had a thread to give people a head's up on rises and falls in prices for our main players.

For those of you not familar, when a player reaches 100% his price will go up (about 03:00 that night) or if he reaches -100% his price drops by .1

A player can only rise .3 or drop .3 in any gameweek.

Use these sites to your advantage, if you want rid of koscielny for example, but see he's not going to drop in price tonight, hang onto him incase one of your city players gets a serious injury tomorrow.
Likewise, use it to check if the player you want in, is going to rise.
The other thing, as i already mentioned is, prices don't change until 2 or 3 am that night, so there is absolutley no advantage (or sense) in making a transfer at 1pm or 6pm on a saturday.

http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php

http://development.totalfpl.com/pricechanges

Edit: Just including this link from JaxTeller in a different thread as it pretty much tells you everything you need to know about price changes

Jax Teller wrote: »

No that's not how it works . This is a little of out date but still a good read .

http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/crack-the-code-2013-14-the-fiso-guide-to-fpl-price-changes-t103498.html

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The Phantom Jipper

Aguero looking good for a drop. I might jump on as I bought him relatively late so I should be able to buy back for in or around my SP. Negredo or Rooney is my main concern now.

[Deleted User]

Any word on his injury yet?

GillespieRoad

Any suggestions on who to get in for Ivanovic? Going down fast now

Danger781

Aguero gone over 100% now on TotalFPL so most definitely dropping

Dawson likely to drop 0.2 this week.. over 5,000 out today alone

I guess Silva will have to wait

Irish94

What do people think of Evans at 5.0?

Could be a bargain with United's fixtures.

Scorpion Sting

Fplstatistics have Aguero at only -67% so I wonder will he drop tonight?

Danger781

Irish94 wrote: »

What do people think of Evans at 5.0?

Could be a bargain with United's fixtures.

Brought him in last week

jebforever wrote: »

Fplstatistics have Aguero at only -67% so I wonder will he drop tonight?

TotalFPL are always bang on. He's at -116.5% with them now. Definitely dropping.

Scorpion Sting

He didn't drop!

[Deleted User]

Are injured players not protected? Or is it only suspensions are protected?

Danger781

jebforever wrote: »

He didn't drop!

Balls

I've personally never seen TotalFPL so wrong

Danger781

Deleted User wrote: »

Are injured players not protected? Or is it only suspensions are protected?

I thought it was only after the flag was removed that the protection comes into play?

Danger781

No change for Aguero last night. Suarez with yet another rise.

PARlance

Danger781 wrote: »

I thought it was only after the flag was removed that the protection comes into play?

The protection comes into play once they're flagged, it's as if TotalFPL didn't know or adjust the NTO's required under the flag from what I can see

Lucas Hood

PARlance wrote: »

The protection comes into play once they're flagged, it's as if TotalFPL didn't know or adjust the NTO's required under the flag from what I can see

No, protection starts when the red flag is removed. When a player is red flagged they can still rise or fall. . Protection means they can't rise or fall for 8 days after the red flag is removed.

There was a peculiar instance with Silva earlier on this season when he was protected when he had a flag but that was an exception rather than the rule.

PARlance

Lucas Hood wrote: »

No, protection starts when the red flag is removed. When a player is red flagged they can still rise or fall. . Protection means they can't rise or fall for 8 days after the red flag is removed.

There was a peculiar instance with Silva earlier on this season when he was protected when he had a flag but that was an exception rather than the rule.

Aguero was/is yellow flagged, he can still fall under this flag is my assumption.
The figure for NTO to trigger a fall will be 2-2.5 times higher than the normal requirement.
Is that not the way it works?
Not all out protection, but a certain form of it.

Lucas Hood

PARlance wrote: »

Aguero was/is yellow flagged, he can still fall under this flag is my assumption.
The figure for NTO to trigger a fall will be 2-2.5 times higher than the normal requirement.
Is that not the way it works?
Not all out protection, but a certain form of it.

Some of this is outdated but most of it still applies .

FLAGGING & PROTECTION OF PLAYERS

Q: Flagging & Protection of Players? Explain away….
A: When a player is either injured, doubtful, suspended or ineligible then the (i) next to their name on FPL will be flagged red or yellow.

Q: Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops.

Q: Why is that?
A: The general thinking here is that when a player is injured or suspended, naturally a lot of people will want to sell that player. In order to ensure their price doesn’t fall dramatically, the Threshold is increased.

Q: So if a player’s NTO Threshold was 40,000, it’s now going to be 2.5 times greater than that when they are flagged – so 100,000?
A: Correct

Q: But their NTI target for increase doesn’t change?
A: Again correct

Q: Is it likely a player will increase in value or even people buying him in if they are flagged?
A: It could be. Let’s say a player got flagged red as they were being suspended for 1 game for receiving 5 yellow cards. This might not put people off from keeping this player, if they are in the knowledge that he will be back next game. Plus, if this player is already on a rise, there is no reason that more teams won’t buy him and bench him for one week.

Q: So what is protection all about?
A: If a player is red or yellow flagged for 2 days or more, once their (i) icon goes back to grey, they are protected for 8 days.

Q: What does that effectively mean?
A: It means that for the next 8 days their price is frozen. It can neither rise nor fall. Once the 8 days is up, the player’s NTI or NTO is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases kick in from there.

Q: So their price is only frozen once the flag is lifted, not whilst they are flagged?
A: Correct

Q: But what happens if they are only red/yellow flagged for 1 day?
A: Then there is no protection period – just their NTI/NTO target is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases start from there.

PARlance

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Some of this is outdated but most of it still applies .

Yes, but in the case we are talking about, Aguero is still flagged so he "should" have fallen last night.

I still think the most logical reason behind him not falling despite him being well above 100% on TotalFPL is that TotalFPL did not allow for the increase in NTO's rather than him being protected for 8 days:

"Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops."

As per my original post.

Lucas Hood

PARlance wrote: »

Yes, but in the case we are talking about, Aguero is still flagged so he "should" have fallen last night.

I still think the most logical reason behind him not falling despite him being well above 100% on TotalFPL is that TotalFPL did not allow for this:

"Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops."

As per my original post.

You said

The protection comes into play once they're flagged

. You were incorrect .
Totalfpl never adjusted his NTO when he was flagged that is correct.

Aguero is not under any sort of protection at the minute and saying so confuses the situation imo.

Danger781

Aguero red flagged now, so only 75% of the way to a drop.. He may only end up having one or two drops

zarquon

Danger781 wrote: »

Aguero red flagged now, so only 75% of the way to a drop.. He may only end up having one or two drops

No chance, he will drop a lot more than that due to his high ownership from active players. Sturridge dropped 0.5m in 3 weeks after a red flag. Aguero will be out for at least a month missing 5 or 6 gameweeks. I expect him to drop significantly

PARlance

Lucas Hood wrote: »

You said . You were incorrect .
Totalfpl never adjusted his NTO when he was flagged that is correct.

Aguero is not under any sort of protection at the minute and saying so confuses the situation imo.

Ah ok, Protection = Price Freeze :rolleyes:

What do you call the act of increasing the NTO requirement by a factor of 2.5 when someone is flagged so?
It's a form of protection to me.

A flag protects against a drop, A prize freeze guarantees against a price drop.

Anywho, I think the OP got the drift.

roryc

Suarez, Rooney, Yaya, Negredo, Caulker, Distin and Fer going up. Decent chance for Silva and Johnson, and I have my eye on Coleman who I think needs another 5k transfers in to rise? There's a chance he may hold until tomorrow.

Aguero drops along with Clyne and Vlaar. Fonte & Remy may also drop.

City and Chelsea play tomorrow, Stoke, United, West Ham and Spurs play Wednesday.

Danger781

Balls, Silva rising very fast.. Don't want to wait too long to bring him in so I may just jump on the bandwagon tonight

Danger781

Lots of changes tonight!

roryc

Boom, Coleman didn't rise.

Stuck between getting himself or Zabaleta in. Three assists in four games and a tasty Christmas/January period (bar Liverpool at home) makes Zab very tempting. But he has 0 goals to Colemans 3...

Danger781

roryc wrote: »

Boom, Coleman didn't drop.

Stuck between getting himself or Zabaleta in. Three assists in four games and a tasty Christmas/January period (bar Liverpool at home) makes Zab very tempting. But he has 0 goals to Colemans 3...

I assume you mean rise

roryc

Yeah meant rise... post edited

Mr.Prodston

I know he's injured and out for a month or so but the fact that Aguero has over 250k transfers out so early in this GW is crazy. Now I know the world isn't economically rational but the common sense thing to do would be to wait until Thursday or Friday or at the very least see what City do tonight.

I simply don't understand the mad rush to act so early in the week. If people don't sell, his price won't drop therefore everybody wins? I know it's a herding effect as the more people see him being sold the more inclined they are to sell, therefore forcing the more rational people to sell out of necessity.

From a behavioural economic way of thinking it's interesting but bloody annoying form a somewhat rational Aguero owner's perspective :pac:

zarquon

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

I know he's injured and out for a month or so but the fact that Aguero has over 250k transfers out so early in this GW is crazy. Now I know the world isn't economically rational but the common sense thing to do would be to wait until Thursday or Friday or at the very least see what City do tonight.

I simply don't understand the mad rush to act so early in the week. If people don't sell, his price won't drop therefore everybody wins? I know it's a herding effect as the more people see him being sold the more inclined they are to sell, therefore forcing the more rational people to sell out of necessity.

From a behavioural economic way of thinking it's interesting but bloody annoying form a somewhat rational Aguero owner's perspective :pac:

It's pure economics, Aguero dropping, replacements rising. An early transfer could be worth at least 0.4m which is quite a lot.

Mr.Prodston

zarquon wrote: »

It's pure economics, Aguero dropping, replacements rising. An early transfer could be worth at least 0.4m which is quite a lot.

Oh yeah I get that, but if everyone waited then people would be at an advantage is all I'm saying. Anything could happen Rooney, Lukaku, Negredo before Friday but Aguero remains injured.