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The Football Tips Thread V

inforfun

Shiny new thread.

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Part IV

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paulb06

paulb06 wrote: »

Anyone know what team Barca are likely to put out tonight v Cartagena in the cup? They're 1/8, but 1st half over 1.5 is appealing at just over evens, they like to put teams away early and 4 out of 5 of Barcelona's games have seen over 1.5 1st half.

Edit, price just dropped to below evens now.

Unlikely way of coming in

Talib Fiasco

I didn't bother throwing United into my accumulator but I'm pretty sure they'll win tomorrow. Might throw something on the GS Markets tomorrow.

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Looks a good bet I've took Barca over 1.5 FH goals 6/5 strong enough team out

will end the night with that

discombobulate

discombobulate wrote: »

Have backed them on the first half -1 Asian handicap at 1.85

Will take that. Glad i wasn't greedy. Didn't see them conceding. Fair play to the over 1.5ers! 18 shots for them.

paulb06

magherakid wrote: »

will end the night with that

Well done

Talib Fiasco

I know it's early days lads but WC? I threw a few quid at Messi for top scorer and after the draw it looks like he could have a field day in the groups stage.

seanhynes

seanhynes wrote: »

Benfica v Arouca,Benfica shud be looking to wrap this one up early with their big champ lge game v Madrid next week.Cardozo is injured, so their main attacker will be Lima hes evens anytime scorer,hes got 4 in 9 appearances this year

He scored the penalty

inforfun

Talib Fiasco wrote: »

I know it's early days lads but WC? I threw a few quid at Messi for top scorer and after the draw it looks like he could have a field day in the groups stage.

Yeah... i think i am going to open a separate thread for that.
By the time the WC starts this thread will have over 10.000 posts and will be gone anyway.

HERE

Marty09

Doing another Unders 2,5 double tomorrow :

Crystal Palace v Cardiff @1.57
Yeovil v Charlton @1.66
(Can't get system to work out overall total for double on PP!)

Palace failed to score in 8 games this season, averaging 0.7 goals at home.
Cardiff failed to score in 7, 0.5 goals per away game.

Yeovil averaging 0.5 per home game
Charlton 0.8 goals away.....both have failed to score in 8 games.

Radonman

Marty09 wrote: »

Doing another Unders 2,5 double tomorrow :

Crystal Palace v Cardiff @1.57
Yeovil v Charlton @1.66
(Can't get system to work out overall total for double on PP!)

Palace failed to score in 8 games this season, averaging 0.7 goals at home.
Cardiff failed to score in 7, 0.5 goals per away game.

Yeovil averaging 0.5 per home game
Charlton 0.8 goals away.....both have failed to score in 8 games.

Significantly better price for the double at Ladbrooks 7/10 for the Palace game and 3/4 for the Yeovil game - that where I'm placing it - thanks for the research

inforfun

Dutch Eredivisie

PSV - Vitesse

Bet: Vitesse DC
Odds: 1.92
Bookie: Unibet

4 matches today in the Eredivisie with 3 of them looking promising to get some money from the bookies.
Ajax on the handis, AZ - Twente for goals and this one, PSV - Vitesse for the away result.

Of course i watched Feyenoord - PSV last week from beginning to the end and apart from maybe 10 minutes where PSV had their goal, they havent seen the ball at all in Rotterdam. Cant remember Feyenoord ever seen so dominant against a top 5 team in the league as last week.
Somthing like 68% possesion is unheard of in a Feyenoord - PSV
Was Feyenoord that good or PSV that bad. Well, both.

If the same PSV shows up tonight they have no chance of getting anything from this match and as it comes to players available compared to last week, only Toivonen will be available again.
But not sure if a: he plays, b: he is an improvement.
Other than that, PSV will be without Bruma who was smart enough to get himself sent off 2x in 4 days.
That will be an extra problem seeing Vitesse has Havenaar up front, similar style as Pelle (just not as prolific with goals) and PSV did just not know how to deal with Pelle last week.

Vitesse will be without Kashia, suspended, and that is a pity. Good player, reliable defender but i am not going to lose sleep over it.

Vitesse the in form team in Holland together maybe with Ajax. Already good wins away from home against teams who at that moment were in better shape than PSV now, 1-1 away to AZ, 3-2 away to Heerenveen (somewhat stolen with late goals) and a 1-0 away to Ajax. If you take away the farce that was ADO - Vitesse (horrible pitch) Vitesse only lost 1 more away match, 1st match of the season to RKC back in august. But at that time they didnt have their 151651534 players on loan from Chelsea yet.

Other bets i am thinking of for this one:

Vitesse straight win: upto 3.9 in some places
Vitesse DNB: upto 2.9
Vitesse over 1.5 team goals: 2.37

Goal scorers: Piazon 2.87 and Leerdam @5 can always be considered. 6 goals so far this year but with Kashia missing he ll probably end up playing right back in stead of midfield. Funny enough, despite being a little guy (no, not that little, he scores often with headers)

tinodz

Macclesfield Town vs Brackley Town in the FA Cup. That is Conference National vs Conference North. There is a tier between the two teams. Conner Jennings is having a great leauge season for Macclesfield - and plays best at home. 16 goals in his last 12 matches

Home form

I put all my faith in him today!

Jennings Anytime @ 2.10 <--- Main bet

Bit less on these

First goal @ 5.00
2 or more @ 6.00

Little bit

Hattrick @ 23.00

I will just about break even if he scores anytime, and will have a great day if any of the others come in!

Lord TSC

discombobulate wrote: »

No I mean Newcastle getting beat 3 nil by a Swansea team you would think would be shy of goals with Michu and Bony out. A lot of the reasoning behind Newcastle being a good bet is that Rooney and RVP are out and that reasoning didn't work out mid-week.

Its more than just that Rooney and RVP are out; it's that Carrick is also out, there's talks Kagawa might have had breathing problems as well midweek so might be out. And then it's the backroom strife as well, with Ferdinand criticizing Moyes publicly yesterday, rumors of RVP handing in a transfer request, Moyes being overly defeatist in the press conference.

Don't get me wrong, as a United fan, I hope you're right. But there's a lot of problems at United right now that makes 11/2 just too tempting to pass up imo, or at the very least, the 4/1 DNB.

EDIT: Also, and someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I read that, in the league, United have only actually beaten one of the top 10 teams they've faced this year in Arsenal. Losses to Pool, City and Everton, and draws with Chelsea, Southampton and Spurs. All our wins (again, except Arsenal) have been against teams below us in the league.

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Nurnberg v Mainz tonight has a great H2H of +2.5 goals. Only one game in the last six went under (0-0 at that too)

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2013/12/06/germany/bundesliga/1-fc-nurnberg/1-fsv-mainz-05/1487154/head2head/

Nurnberg are on a desperate run at the moment and badly need a win. One thing that worries me for overs is the Mainz coach has said he will stick with the young keeper who filled in for their regular keeper while he was suspended for three games. This should encourage him to try play extra well to keep his place now that there is competition again.

I'll wait till in play to see if something can be got on either Mainz team goals or possibly a +1.5 line if it stays scoreless.

The +2.5 line was evens last night and has now dropped to 5/6

edit: just to add you have to go back 13 away games to find a Mainz game under 2.5

Benfica v Arouca

This seemed great on first inspection 2nd v 2nd bottom. I had taken Benfica 3 or more teams goals @ 10/11 .. I have since cancelled this bet using the new 'close bet' option on Bet365 (great new addition)

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2013/12/06/portugal/portuguese-liga-/benfica/fc-arouca/1511794/head2head/

My reason for closing and waiting till in play to back again is Benfica have a do or die champions league match on Tuesday hosting PSG which I originally overlooked. Benfica are level on points in the second spot of the group but a goal behind on GD putting them third place.

Will check lineups before this game as they very likely will rest players for Tuesday. Will hold out for a while into the game to see if they look like having some value in the goals market.

Benfica have covered 3 team goals 3/5 of their last games. Might even get to back a lower line in play for near evens.

Had top knock offline so never got the chance to execute my plan to hold out for the 1.5 goal line later in the Mainz game but would have worked well with the second goal not coming till the 75 th min. I nabbed a bit of +2.5 at the start so stung there.

Weather seemed snowy in the Mainz game, also in the Dresden game before it ... I googled weather in Germany and hurricane Xavier came through North Germany on Thursday so may be worth checking the area of any games you are backing today.

Reason I posted the blurb on cancelling the Benfica bet was to make anyone else thinking of backing the mismatch in table position aware of the coming Champions league situation. Good chance to back late benfica goal as it turned out but very bad result for them at home 2- 2.

tommyjin83

A nice treble for today imho.

Monchengladbach ( Double Chance ) vs Schalke - Gladbach is the in form team in Germany at the moment, Schalke has a do or die Champions league match next week. Taking a safer bet here. (@4/11)

Liverpool to win vs Westham - Liverpool will look to add another home win to their tally. Suarez is playing the best football of his life. Westham's awaful away record speak for itself. (@ 1/3 )

PSG ( -1 ) vs Sochaux - After a disappointing loss last week, PSG looks certain to bounce back in front of their fans. Against a team at the other side of the table, taking the handicup of a -1 is my bet. ( @2/5)

The above works out at around 1.55.

Good luck

deisechap09

Man Utd vs Newcastle
The united line up is probably the best they have available at the moment, a reason i think they will probably win but at 8/15 at best theyre plenty short. However, I like the look of Newcastle and when there best 11 is on the field, they are a match for most teams. While remy is undoubtably their main man, Gouffran at 9/2 anytime is a super price. Looks like he mite play from the wing or even as the main front man. He has 3 in his last 5, and seems to be coming to terms with the prem after struggling last year. A very decent goal record in france, he repersents value at 9/2.

user2011

United team cards over 1.5 6/4 Bet365

This has collected in 11 of their 14 Premier League games. This is a big big game for United 12 pts behind already expecting a tough game today the ref isn't bad but I'm not basing this on him United are in the sh!ter and one thing Moyes will get his teams doing is fighting.

Radonman

Halifax alert - there at home today against Woking who are also terrible away from home, for those who don't know Halifax are a jackal and Hyde team when it comes to home and away form - unreal at home and brutal away, scoring 27 and conceding 7, Woking have conceded 15 and scored 9 and an overall record of w 2 d 1 L 6 - great price again for Halifax to win @ 11/10 and (-1) @ 23/10

Oh and RVP anytime @ evens on betfair speaks for itself

ShamoBuc

A lot of people fancy Newcastle and rightly so. Taking the Newcastle DNB at 4/1 as a bit of a safer option but still a great price.

Liverpool have a tendency to score early at home and should beat the hammers so at 10/11 ht/ft this has to be taken for me.

Also Pool -1 has a great chance of coming in at 10/11 also as at home they have been in goal scoring form and Hammers don't score a lot away from home.

These 3 - but the 2 pool ones in particular - have a great chance of coming in I think.

Shane St.

Gone off Newcastle w RVP back.
I don't have time for a full write up but I think City to win today looks good. I know the away form has been sketchy but with Kompany back I trust them a lot more. Think the games might be catching up w Southampton now, they've had a few defeats on the spin now.
City win 3/4 - Medium Stake

Anytime treble - Small Stakes
Hazard 13/5 - in great form took Sunderland apart midweek
A Negredo 11/8 - in equally great form and was rested midweek
Remy anytime 21/10 - Already stated in previous post

Treble works out at 25/1.

shocksy

Taking over 11 corners at 6/5 - Mainly because i think it will be a very attacking match and should result in alot of corners.

And going with BTTS at 10/11 - I fully expect Newcastle to put Utd under pressure and get at least 1 goal as they are playing very well at the moment, and Utd seriously need to get back on the goal sheet, so i think 10/11 is a fair price.

hoopyhoopy

Dundee a good bet in the Scottish championship 5/6 away to the bottom side Morton ... Backing against Morton wins more often than not you'd have to think Dundee fighting for top spot should win here, lowly Livingston beat Morton in Morton 5-1 the last time they played at home ...

5/6 too good of odds to turn down for me.

grattanspuds

Man city to score 2 or more looks decent value at 4/6. Scoring for fun and Southampton's injury problems at the back and in goals should see city get 2. Dundee should also win away to Morton and look value at 4/5. Morton are bottom, Dundee are 2nd, and hammered the top team 3-0 away last week.

magherakid

Southampton Team Gazzaniga, Chambers, Fonte, Lovren, Shaw, Cork, S. Davis, Ward-Prowse, Lallana (c), Rodriguez, Osvaldo

Man City Team Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Kompany, Demichelis, Kolarov, Milner, Yaya Toure, Fernandinho, Nasri, Aguero, Negredo

Liverpool Team Mignolet, Flanagan, Sakho, Skrtel, Johnson, Allen, Gerrard, Henderson, Sterling, Coutinho, Suarez

West Ham Team Jaaskelainen, Demel, McCartney, Collins, Tomkins, Noble, Diame, Nolan (c), Downing, Jarvis, Maiga

Chelsea Team Cech, Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Azpilicueta, Ramires, Mikel, Hazard, Mata, Schurrle, Torres

Stoke Team Begovic; Cameron, Shawcross, Huth, Muniesa; Walters, Nzonzi, Whelan, Adam, Arnautovic; Crouch

Palace Team Speroni, Ward, Gabbidon, Delaney, Moxey, Dikgacoi, Jedinak, Bannan, Puncheon, Chamakh, Jerome

Cardiff Team Marshall, Theophile-Catherine, Caulker, Turner, John, Medel, Bo-Kyung, Whittingham, Mutch, Cowie, Campbell

West Brom Team Myhill, Jones, McAuley, Lugano, Ridgewell, Yacob, Mulumbu, Amalfitano, Sessegnon, Brunt, Anichebe

Norwich Team Ruddy; Whittaker, Turner, Bassong (c), Olsson; Redmond, Howson, Johnson, Fer, Elmander, Hooper.

Lord TSC

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Its more than just that Rooney and RVP are out; it's that Carrick is also out, there's talks Kagawa might have had breathing problems as well midweek so might be out. And then it's the backroom strife as well, with Ferdinand criticizing Moyes publicly yesterday, rumors of RVP handing in a transfer request, Moyes being overly defeatist in the press conference.

Don't get me wrong, as a United fan, I hope you're right. But there's a lot of problems at United right now that makes 11/2 just too tempting to pass up imo, or at the very least, the 4/1 DNB.

EDIT: Also, and someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I read that, in the league, United have only actually beaten one of the top 10 teams they've faced this year in Arsenal. Losses to Pool, City and Everton, and draws with Chelsea, Southampton and Spurs. All our wins (again, except Arsenal) have been against teams below us in the league.

Do so hate when I'm right

magherakid

Well done Newcastle backers

user2011

user2011 wrote: »

United team cards over 1.5 6/4 Bet365

This has collected in 11 of their 14 Premier League games. This is a big big game for United 12 pts behind already expecting a tough game today the ref isn't bad but I'm not basing this on him United are in the sh!ter and one thing Moyes will get his teams doing is fighting.

could see it not happening from along way off sorry.

Only deserved one card, Nani studs on Anita.

Smithwicks Man

I feel Mata is due a goal but missed my chance to back it

P.Walnuts

user2011 wrote: »

could see it not happening from along way off sorry.

Only deserved one card, Nani studs on Anita.

Hernandez dive aswell, ref bottled that one

user2011

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Hernandez dive aswell, ref bottled that one

A high percentage of dives are let go, that's why players still try to con the ref's.

I was expecting a bit more from Newcastle, with how weak United are these days but Newcastle looked to be set up for to take a point, got away with three. Man United just nothing from them no fight no heart for it.

People who got on bookings should feel aggrieved I think Newcastle could of got it in by themselves.