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August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

Kenring

I see I have been allowed to finally post here after being banned for a year for being unconventional in my methods. I thank whoever has made that possible. It appears my methods upset some but they are not intended to be evil, and I write only for those interested in making use of them. I am not funded by any government so am not a drain on any taxpayer, and therefore I should threaten no one. I do make a living from forecasting but so do many in Met Eireann and the media and no one minds. I happen to have alternative viewpoints and in dealing in longrange forecasts cannot be orthodox as there is no technology designed for it. But if history is anything to go by I fully expect to be thrown out again of this forum for daring to post predictions, which are only opinions and suggestions based on the solid science of the orbits of moon and sun. It is not astrology and I have never been an astrologer. Nothing is certain and my predictions carry a leeway of 1-3 days and up to 80km radius error/applicability, same as any other forecasting.

As for August, here are some extracts from my 2013 Ireland almanac.
August is a mainly dry and summery, with some more hot days expected.
Altogether there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county.
The month starts wet on the 1st/2nd, then dries for a few days, followed by overnight showers 6th-10th, mostly dry 12th-20th, brief rain around 21st-22nd, and then mostly dry for the remainder of the month.
The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest.
For temperatures, the whole month should stay in the 20s, with some very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st.

I welcome other predictions based on other methods. I feel it is what a forum should be.
cheers to all.

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relaxed

shamrock55 wrote: »

Did i read that ken predicted a dry wkend?, well all i know is its dry here in bantry all morning pretty sunny now too, could ken be right about the wkend heres hoping:D

Well met eireann are forecasting rain, but more in the east than the west so we might miss the worst of the rain on the west coast.

I hope the east get the rain, only because I am in the west.

Davaeo09

relaxed wrote: »

Well met eireann are forecasting rain, but more in the east than the west so we might miss the worst of the rain on the west coast.

I hope the east get the rain, only because I am in the west.

My younger sisters 21st is at home in Kilkenny tomorrow and I for one hope the East stays dry!
East side

Monkaa

Any more details on Dublins weather tomorrow? Looked fine for days but now met are predicting rain

Conmaicne Mara

relaxed wrote: »

Well met eireann are forecasting rain, but more in the east than the west so we might miss the worst of the rain on the west coast.

I hope the east get the rain, only because I am in the west.

And long may that continue.

Birroc

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

And long may that continue.

It's lovely and sunny in west Galway this morning.

relaxed

Birroc wrote: »

It's lovely and sunny in west Galway this morning.

Great evening out west, at least where I am, nothing but blue sky's.:D

Popoutman

Wet again today in Limerick between the sunny spells.

smallwonder

Any indications of weather for the 23rd - 25th August?. I've a festival to run and with total Irish optimism the majority of events are outside!

Kenring

smallwonder wrote: »

Any indications of weather for the 23rd - 25th August?. I've a festival to run and with total Irish optimism the majority of events are outside!

If you email me on ken@weatherman.co.nz I am happy to help. I don't wish to attract the type of negative comments I have had already when I answer requests of this sort. Thanks.

Popoutman

@smallwonder - if Ken tries to charge you, let the mods know as he's not allowed to tout for business at all here.

If he gives you a free "forecast", also let the mods know just to clear up any possible misinterpretation of Ken's post above.

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

@smallwonder - if Ken tries to charge you, let the mods know as he's not allowed to tout for business at all here.

If he gives you a free "forecast", also let the mods know just to clear up any possible misinterpretation of Ken's post above.

I am mindful of the rules and the constant attempts to entrap me. I have already had one email regarding this date and whilst I have replied in as helpful way as I felt I could, I have neither delivered a regular forecast nor charged anything. The correspondent may or may not wish to identify themselves and confirm that, that is their business. But it does highlight some interesting points about whether the rules apply for all posters here, many of whom draw wages from meteorological activities.

Thargor

Is there anything at all to suggest we could get another blast of heat before the end of the Summer?

Kenring

Thargor wrote: »

Is there anything at all to suggest we could get another blast of heat before the end of the Summer?

I would say definitely. The exact dates are carried in most Irish newspapers that have interviewed me over the past month. May I suggest you google it. cheers

mickmackey1

Well that's it for the weather, we may as well close down this forum until maybe a gale in October

JM Skipton

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Well that's it for the weather, we may as well close down this forum until maybe a gale in October

Unfortunately I agree with you, even MetE last night were fairly certain that unsettled weather will remain all through this week and through next weekend.
That will bring us to nearly half way through August a far cry from mid July this year.:(

Kenring

JM Skipton wrote: »

Unfortunately I agree with you, even MetE last night were fairly certain that unsettled weather will remain all through this week and through next weekend.
That will bring us to nearly half way through August a far cry from mid July this year.:(

My forecast has always been for driest weather this August between 14th-20th and 24th-31st. Summer perigeal full moon typically brings showers because of build-up of extra daytime heat.

gihj

Can anybody direct me to some charts for rainfall levels nationwide for the past week or so please?

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

My forecast has always been for driest weather this August between 14th-20th and 24th-31st. Summer perigeal full moon typically brings showers because of build-up of extra daytime heat.

You also said there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county. (it's now day 6 and I think there has been rain in every county ever day!)
You also said it would be dry and summery (it's been wet, fresh and autumnal so far)
You also said we can expect some very warm days around the 7th.(no sign of that at the moment)
You also said driest 12th-20th, now it's 14th-20th, yet you don't change forecasts once you make them, so why this time?

So far everything you have forecasted for august seems to be completely wrong.

I hope things do pickup with drier weather around 14th-20th, and warm again around 21st, but I just can't see it happening.

Old diesel

JM Skipton wrote: »

Unfortunately I agree with you, even MetE last night were fairly certain that unsettled weather will remain all through this week and through next weekend.
That will bring us to nearly half way through August a far cry from mid July this year.:(

12z run on GFS is bringing up some nice charts

- could be too early yet to write the month off

Kenring

relaxed wrote: »

You also said there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county. (it's now day 6 and I think there has been rain in every county ever day!)
You also said it would be dry and summery (it's been wet, fresh and autumnal so far)
You also said we can expect some very warm days around the 7th.(no sign of that at the moment)
You also said driest 12th-20th, now it's 14th-20th, yet you don't change forecasts once you make them, so why this time?

So far everything you have forecasted for august seems to be completely wrong.

I hope things do pickup with drier weather around 14th-20th, and warm again around 21st, but I just can't see it happening.

Depends what your criterion of a wet day is. Is it continual rain or just a passing shower in 24 hours? Usually I say "mostly dry" for a dry day, and that can accomodate anything up to 0.4mm. I deal with trends, not specific falls at certain times on certain roofs.

smallwonder

Popoutman wrote: »

@smallwonder - if Ken tries to charge you, let the mods know as he's not allowed to tout for business at all here.

If he gives you a free "forecast", also let the mods know just to clear up any possible misinterpretation of Ken's post above.

I just got a nice email from Ken dealing with my specific query with no touting

Rooy

gihj wrote: »

Can anybody direct me to some charts for rainfall levels nationwide for the past week or so please?

Met Eireann will has monthly data here ,so August total will give you rainfall for last week. Its a short term answer anyway

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

@smallwonder - if Ken tries to charge you, let the mods know as he's not allowed to tout for business at all here.

If he gives you a free "forecast", also let the mods know just to clear up any possible misinterpretation of Ken's post above.

Any mention of Met Eireann could equally be perceived as touting for business for a professional service that many recieve wages from.
Whatever I tell people in my emails is also not this thread's business, in the same way that people who are posters here are also free to buy things from ebay without telling the mods for boards.ie.

JM Skipton

Kenring wrote: »

My forecast has always been for driest weather this August between 14th-20th and 24th-31st. Summer perigeal full moon typically brings showers because of build-up of extra daytime heat.

To be fair Ken the term "driest" is only a comparative term. For example we could have 100mm of rain between the 1st to the 13th August and then only 95mm of rain from 14th-20th August. So yes in theory the 14th-20th is drier, but its still horribly wet for most people. I enjoy your forecasts in a lighthearted way and I don't think you deserve some of the derogatory comments that have been directed at you here however your language and terminology are cleverly designed and written in a way that makes you technically correct no matter what weather we get. As a complete amateur I am going to say the 14th-20th of August is going to be sunny with scattered showers temperatures between 18-21 degrees cooler on western coasts:)

Hoochiemama

Kenring wrote: »

I am mindful of the rules and the constant attempts to entrap me. I have already had one email regarding this date and whilst I have replied in as helpful way as I felt I could, I have neither delivered a regular forecast nor charged anything. The correspondent may or may not wish to identify themselves and confirm that, that is their business. But it does highlight some interesting points about whether the rules apply for all posters here, many of whom draw wages from meteorological activities.

I got an email off Ken which was nothing but polite and in no way trying to sell me anything.

Kenring

JM Skipton wrote: »

..your language and terminology are cleverly designed and written in a way that makes you technically correct no matter what weather we get.

I give information on trends and not specifics, although one does require a focus point. The oft made mistake is that focus points are misconstrued as being predictions of certainties, and this is a sometimes deliberate obfuscation by skeptics in order to denigrate me and my work. If you think 14th-20th is going to be dry with scattered showers then you have no need for my opinions. I only work for those who do not have a clear idea of weather in a time frame that is important to them. If you think that my predicting 18 months ago in my writings that a 30C heatwave would arrive on 9 July (with this information picked up by many Irish media and repeated in January), and that my prediction of a cool wet spring would be followed by my prediction of a mild June and my prediction of a hot July, followed by my prediction of floods in the last week of July, is ALL fluke, coincidence and "cleverly designed writing in a way that makes me technically correct no matter what weather we get", then it stretches logic somewhat. By all means hold an opinion, but at least explain how I managed to get the year's trends correct enough for the media to get so excited.

Rightwing

Kenring wrote: »

I give information on trends and not specifics, although one does require a focus point. The oft made mistake is that focus points are misconstrued as being predictions of certainties, and this is a sometimes deliberate obfuscation by skeptics in order to denigrate me and my work. If you think 14th-20th is going to be dry with scattered showers then you have no need for my opinions. I only work for those who do not have a clear idea of weather in a time frame that is important to them. If you think that my predicting 18 months ago in my writings that a 30C heatwave would arrive on 9 July (with this information picked up by many Irish media and repeated in January), and that my prediction of a cool wet spring would be followed by my prediction of a mild June and my prediction of a hot July, followed by my prediction of floods in the last week of July, is ALL fluke, coincidence and "cleverly designed writing in a way that makes me technically correct no matter what weather we get", then it stretches logic somewhat. By all means hold an opinion, but at least explain how I managed to get the year's trends correct enough for the media to get so excited.

Are we in for a cold or mild winter Ken ?

JM Skipton

Kenring wrote: »

I give information on trends and not specifics, although one does require a focus point. The oft made mistake is that focus points are misconstrued as being predictions of certainties, and this is a sometimes deliberate obfuscation by skeptics in order to denigrate me and my work. If you think 14th-20th is going to be dry with scattered showers then you have no need for my opinions. I only work for those who do not have a clear idea of weather in a time frame that is important to them. If you think that my predicting 18 months ago in my writings that a 30C heatwave would arrive on 9 July (with this information picked up by many Irish media and repeated in January), and that my prediction of a cool wet spring would be followed by my prediction of a mild June and my prediction of a hot July, followed by my prediction of floods in the last week of July, is ALL fluke, coincidence and "cleverly designed writing in a way that makes me technically correct no matter what weather we get", then it stretches logic somewhat. By all means hold an opinion, but at least explain how I managed to get the year's trends correct enough for the media to get so excited.

Ken as I said I still enjoy your forecasts and I genuinely wish you well:)

Red Pepper

I think Ken has been spot on. Its actually quite lovely in Galway for the past few days. The odd shower yes but low rainfall amounts. I have been swimming every day since Saturday too. I love this "real" summer weather.

Kenring

JM Skipton wrote: »

Ken as I said I still enjoy your forecasts and I genuinely wish you well:)

Okay, sorry, I misconstrued what you said.