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Aussie dollar falling

s20101938

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

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the flananator

mandrake04 wrote: »

I doubt the $Au will jump up it will continue to fall against the $US, but the € will probably fall giving the same effect.

Cheers pal, yeah, that's what I'm hoping for. Seems counter intuitive to hope the Euro weakens considering I'm planning to move back to Ireland long term, but all my savings are in dollars! Kicking myself for not moving money back months ago, pretty dumb.

catbear

the flananator wrote: »

pretty dumb.

Don't beat yourself up, plenty lose their life savings betting on currencies, now that's dumb!

jank

the flananator wrote: »

Cheers for that guys, really helpful.

Now the big question, send my money home now and take the hit on the current rate, or wait a few months and see if it jumps back up a little..!

If we knew that we would all be millionaires!

Truth is nobody knows but you can look at trends. Its kinda ominous that the AUD-USD has broken the .90c barrier. This is due to an interest rate cut that is almost definitely expected to happen on Tuesday. After that though it could rise again to 92, 93 or so. I think the days of parity are gone though unless other macro economic shocks come into play such as weakening of the US economy. Remember they still have to sort out their federal budget, this is meant to be sorted in the fall. Also the US economy is recovering although very slowly, what type of recovery can we expect once the Fed turns off the $85 billion a month it pours into the economy? Lets not even talk about Europe! The markets are very reactive and they have the AUD in their sights now and its not pretty. Next week though their attention will shift elsewhere.

So in summary I would look at any thing in the region of the AUD-USD being above 91 or 92 cents and anything over AUDEUR .70 as a time to transfer money to Europe or the US. There are other ways to hedge mind you such as buying shares in AUD companies that have lots of revenue coming in from the US. QBE is one such company I have invested in and it is no surprise that their share price over the past 3 months have gained 25% (2% today alone) while the AUD has lost almost 15% of its value.

Having all your eggs in one basket is risky. Might be a little late for some but I have made lots of mistakes regarding money but if its a mistakes learned and not repeated in the future then its worth it in the long run and you can put it down to experience.

Above is only my opinion and DYOR!!

jank

Also those thinking that the Euro will weaken as much as the AUD, think again.

catbear

I was wondering about that jank, the Euro over the last year has gained 8% against the US$ and 25% against the Aus$. I might be finished in Aus by the end of the year and was hoping to get a better rate for what ever super I get back, ah well, I can only hope it won't be back down to Aus$1.66/Euro!

raymann

ifeelill wrote: »

Swings and roundabouts it'll turn around, it's just a question of when.

eh? is that a fact is it. the reality the aus$ will rise and fall depending on a number of mostly factors outside its control. one things for certain, looking at the history of the $, these ALL time highs were a complete anomaly.

raymann

jank wrote: »

Also those thinking that the Euro will weaken as much as the AUD, think again.

the bottom of that list is loaded with the commodity currencies.

catbear

Seeing as it's strength was commodity driven I'm surprised it didn't crash sooner.

colman1212

So you think hold out and pray that the dollar gets back over the 70c mark and then cash out is the best approach? Thats probably what I'm going to do. I'm not in a rush anyway, planning on moving home in May 2014 but god knows what will happen here between now and then.

jank

Another factor. China is slowing down to be sure but if the slowdown becomes an issue for Beijing keeping the people happy and in jobs then you can bet your top dollar that they will pump 100's of billions of cheap money into the economy to keep the ship going that bit longer, they will give a massive boast to commodity prices that is getting cheaper by the week. It could happen next year or in 10 years... but it will happen.

catbear

colman1212 wrote: »

So you think hold out and pray that the dollar gets back over the 70c mark and then cash out is the best approach? Thats probably what I'm going to do. I'm not in a rush anyway, planning on moving home in May 2014 but god knows what will happen here between now and then.

As jank said if we knew the answer to which way it will go then we'd be rich. I've been just buying euros on a regular basis as i've no long term interest in oz, as i'm nearing the end of my time here and the aussie drops to €.66 then i'll just use the rest for bumming around asia for a while. Thankfully as our sponsor running out of work they'll have to pay for our flights outta here which i reckon will get pricier with a weaker dollar.

ballooba

catbear wrote: »

Thankfully as our sponsor running out of work they'll have to pay for our flights outta here which i reckon will get pricier with a weaker dollar.

I doubt it, airlines charge the fares that the market can bear. Hence why flights out of Aus have been way more expensive than flights into Aus in recent years.

cnocbui

the flananator wrote: »

Cheers for that. What kind of exchange rate do they give? Also, once I've put the money into the Currency Fair account, what happens then? What is the process of getting it from there into my Irish account?

You might also want to have a look at Ozforex. They seem to have a pretty good rate:

0.6779 Ozforex
0.6751 Currencyfair
0.6324 CBA

The rates banks offer you are not amusing.

ifeelill

the flananator wrote: »

Kicking myself for not moving money back months ago

I'd say there's a likelihood that you would be kicking yourself if you had come home a few months ago. Things, aren't much better here than they were in 2010

g5fd6ow0hseima

It's great that they actually have a customer rates calculator to tell you exactly what you will recieve. Also handy that they don't charge fees for anything over ten thousand.

karl bracken

ifeelill wrote: »

I'd say there's a likelihood that you would be kicking yourself if you had come home a few months ago. Things, aren't much better here than they were in 2010

I think this is down to your industry, i came home 3 months ago and had 8 interviews in a month with 3 offers, i work in IT
Rent prices are a little high in Dublin but other than that food is good and loads of deals, clothes are cheap and lots of sales.
Luckly i came home to the first summer in about 5 years lol

ifeelill

karl bracken wrote: »

I think this is down to your industry, i came home 3 months ago and had 8 interviews in a month with 3 offers, i work in IT
Rent prices are a little high in Dublin but other than that food is good and loads of deals, clothes are cheap and lots of sales.
Luckly i came home to the first summer in about 5 years lol

Yeah thats exactly right, there are still great growth industries

Legend100

Another interest rate cut.....just what I need saving for a wedding :mad::mad:

at least the market seems to have predicted it with the rate still in at around 0.67

catbear

Good news out of China, might get a bounce back up to €.70, catch it if does.

sin_city

Short term this will be pot luck. If long term you think China's economy is in worse shape than the US and Europe then dump your Aussie Dollars.

res ipsa

catbear wrote: »

Good news out of China, might get a bounce back up to €.70, catch it if does.

I would say the bounce would be from under 67 to over 68.

But if it goes to 70, I'll make out like Scotty T on Geordie Shore. Wai Ay.:P

catbear

res ipsa wrote: »

I would say the bounce would be from under 67 to over 68.

But if it goes to 70, I'll make out like Scotty T on Geordie Shore. Wai Ay.:P

It may have peaked for now, I'm cashing out. I have a feeling the pacific peso is about to do another swoon.

the flananator

Its up to .69 right now. Time to cash out?

Have just set up a Currency Fair account...but am struggling to find any documents to confirm my address. Bugger.

Legend100

the flananator wrote: »

Its up to .69 right now. Time to cash out?

Have just set up a Currency Fair account...but am struggling to find any documents to confirm my address. Bugger.

just in case you didnt know, it takes a few days before your are able to transfer money the first time so today's rates aren't overly useful to you

sin_city

I would say that it has bottomed out.

It went down a lot. Too much, so it should rebound a little.

colman1212

Seems to be coming back a little, broke 69 today. Would be nice to see it get back over 70. After the elections next month we'll prob get a better picture.

jank

Im waiting for it to go into the 70's again, then I'm going to make my move. People should consider a forward contract if they are still looking to save and bring money back home with them in 12 months. There will be a spread involved but at least you can be sure of the rate. All you need is 10% downpayment, the rest in 3,6 12 (or whenever) months time.

Hoboo

The whole oz economy is gonna go in the next 18 months, shortly after the Canadian. All propped up on the derivitives market and inflated housing market....mark my words.

The uk will have an even bigger collapse in or around the same time......giving money to banks to lend as mortgages whilst the interest rate is .5% will and evidently is creating another bubble.....house prices up all over. Not to mention the money used to lend is adding to the national debt, to be paid by joe public. Hilarious.

Get your dollar, invest in bullets, or go to paddy power and stick it all on my predictions.

danotroy

Hoboo wrote: »

The whole oz economy is gonna go in the next 18 months, shortly after the Canadian. All propped up on the derivitives market and inflated housing market....mark my words.

The uk will have an even bigger collapse in or around the same time......giving money to banks to lend as mortgages whilst the interest rate is .5% will and evidently is creating another bubble.....house prices up all over. Not to mention the money used to lend is adding to the national debt, to be paid by joe public. Hilarious.

Get your dollar, invest in bullets, or go to paddy power and stick it all on my predictions.

sweeping generalisations Hoboo.

jank

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