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Aussie dollar falling

s20101938

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

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sin_city

catbear wrote: »

Maybe you missed this while you were lecturing at the bar.:D:D

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-in-recession-as-growth-slows-to-a-trickle-20130605-2nqh4.html#ixzz2VtMQHKF3

Two quarters of economic contraction is a recession.

I wouldn't base everything on one article from The Age?

Two quarters is a recession? mmmm ok that's a fair point in general but the problem is "no-one - not the Australian Bureau of Statistics nor anyone else - produces quarterly estimates of GDP at the state and territory level",

Of course from what is written WA could be in a recession. I highly doubt it from what I've heard from mates living there, from what economists say and due to the fact that even though China has slowed...it's still growing pretty fast.

http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/wa-recession-fears-misplaced/story-e6frfkur-1226659416171

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/despite-media-misinformation-western-australia-remains-national-growth-leader-terry-ryder-hotspotting/2013061162126?utm_source=po&utm_medium=aida&utm_campaign=upperright

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/top-economist-wa-not-in-recession/story-fnhocr4x-1226658613073

http://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-recession-claims-are-hysteria-20130606-2nrzv.html

Have a little critical thinking before you jump to conclusions and investigate your claims before believing everything you read.

I could be wrong of course, but I've put my case forward with a few links that I would say it is not in recession.

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

Have a little critical thinking before you jump to conclusions and investigate your claims before believing everything you read.

I could be wrong of course, but I've put my case forward with a few links that I would say it is not in recession.

I don't need to read anything to know that the jobs aren't coming in, employment in the investment side of mining is declining. If you don't believe me then check out the increase in the WA unemployment rate from mid 2012 to now.

sin_city

catbear wrote: »

I don't need to read anything to know that the jobs aren't coming in, employment in the investment side of mining is declining. If you don't believe me then check out the increase in the WA unemployment rate from mid 2012 to now.

I do believe you, but coming from 6% to 7% down to 2% or 3% is still hell of a lot better than most places.

I don't see the point really. Are you saying WA is a bad place to go for work? I would say it is one of the best places an Irish person can go still.

Batgurl

sin_city wrote: »

I would say it is one of the best places an Irish person can go still.

What are you basing this on? If you are in Ireland and are hearing it from second hand sources then I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Everyone in Australia is starting to feel the slow down. From retail stores being emptier during the now sale period to clients telling us they are reigning in their spending budgets (when things get tough, advertising is always the first to go).

Sure, it's not in the depths of a recession that Ireland is but winter is coming.

sin_city

Batgurl wrote: »

What are you basing this on? If you are in Ireland and are hearing it from second hand sources then I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Everyone in Australia is starting to feel the slow down. From retail stores being emptier during the now sale period to clients telling us they are reigning in their spending budgets (when things get tough, advertising is always the first to go).

Sure, it's not in the depths of a recession that Ireland is but winter is coming.

Basing it on my brother and 4 of his friends and his girlfriend working there. They work in Port Hedland. My brother went drove up from Perth after being on east coast with me. He had a job within 2 days. His girlfriend worked in Subway for 3 weeks and got the job she wanted. All are making crazy money...working long hours in fairness but they reckon they'll be able to buy a nice house back home early next year in cash.

Another brother and a mate work in Perth. Doing well too.

I compare all this to my Dad who is working at home and struggling.

Keep your salt for yourself missus.

FernandoTorres

Batgurl wrote: »

What are you basing this on? If you are in Ireland and are hearing it from second hand sources then I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Everyone in Australia is starting to feel the slow down. From retail stores being emptier during the now sale period to clients telling us they are reigning in their spending budgets (when things get tough, advertising is always the first to go).

Sure, it's not in the depths of a recession that Ireland is but winter is coming.

I've heard of a few Whitewalker spottings in WA alright...

randombar

Remember with all this money transfer etc. xe.com is your friend, the lowest cost in money transfer I came across anyway.

// Gary

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

I don't see the point really. Are you saying WA is a bad place to go for work? I would say it is one of the best places an Irish person can go still.

The point is that regardless of opinions on whether WA is in recession or not there's no disputing that there is a new post mining boom reality.
How it affects anyones prospects depends on if their skill is in demand or not.
Thankfully I'm not job hunting at the moment but as it stands if conditions continue at the current subdued level then I may be heading home by the end of the year.

Batgurl

sin_city wrote: »

Basing it on my brother and 4 of his friends and his girlfriend working there. They work in Port Hedland. My brother went drove up from Perth after being on east coast with me. He had a job within 2 days. His girlfriend worked in Subway for 3 weeks and got the job she wanted. All are making crazy money...working long hours in fairness but they reckon they'll be able to buy a nice house back home early next year in cash.

Another brother and a mate work in Perth. Doing well too.

I compare all this to my Dad who is working at home and struggling.

Keep your salt for yourself missus.

So you're basing it on isolated stories? Well, that settles that then.

Tis alright lads, no need to do any of that budgetary crap to work out whether WA's economy is in financial difficulty...a couple of Sin Citys mates got work so we're all going to be grand - WAHEY!

I'll keep the salt then thanks - will come in handy during winter

Sundy

Exploration budgets being cut is the biggest hint that the mining boom is over. When mining companies wont put money in exploration it means they dont see themsleves being in positive cash flow in the next few years.

Its inevitable that this will have an effect throughout the mining industry and i have seen it myself with some mining consultants going 3 day weeks.
Jobs are still available here but sentiment is changing

Carlosd

Interesting Australian dollar euro exchange rate graph, check the 6 month graph
http://www.transfermate.com/en/historical_exchange_rates.asp

catbear

Carlosd wrote: »

Interesting Australian dollar euro exchange rate graph, check the 6 month graph
http://www.transfermate.com/en/historical_exchange_rates.asp

When I opened the link it had the EUR/USD rate.

Anyway here's the 10 year rate, the left scale showing the Aus$ in Euro cents, ie around the end of 08 the Aus Dollar was around 50c Euro.
http://www.dollars.com/images/charts/AUD_EUR_10year.png
You can see the mining investment ramp up from there.

Carlosd

You have to select the currencies,

See below longer euro Australian dollar link

http://www.transfermate.com/en/exchange_rates_table_eur_aud.asp?form_id=269&doit=0&date_from=&date_to=&p=1+year&button_subscribe=Submit

mise_me_fein3

Batgurl wrote: »

So you're basing it on isolated stories? Well, that settles that then.

Tis alright lads, no need to do any of that budgetary crap to work out whether WA's economy is in financial difficulty...a couple of Sin Citys mates got work so we're all going to be grand - WAHEY!

I'll keep the salt then thanks - will come in handy during winter

Didn't you see some of the links posted on this thread?

What are you basing your opinion on? Scaremongering?

A currency goes up or down not only in relation to the economy related to one of the currency's.
The AUD got stronger because of other currency's weaknesses and if you think all of this has been sorted and that America and Europe are about to embark on the good times you are very wrong.

The AUD will go up and down but I expect long term for it to go up whether or not there is a mining "boom".

catbear

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

The AUD got stronger because of other currency's weaknesses and if you think all of this has been sorted and that America and Europe are about to embark on the good times you are very wrong.

The Aussie$ strength relative to the € is entirely to do with Chinese demand, while not publicly acknowledging it nearly all Australian will concede that point. The Aus is still overvalued, especially when it's cheaper to buy LNG from the US than extract it from their own soil.
As it's hard to invest directly into China many put their money into Australia as it was now a conduit of the Chinese boom.
To put it simply the Australian property bubble which was going down with the rest in 08 was supported by the mining boom which in turn is driven by a centrally commanded Chinese infrastructure programme which has led in turn to a Chinese property bubble which is currently sustaining demand in ore exports.

Batgurl

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

Didn't you see some of the links posted on this thread?

What are you basing your opinion on? Scaremongering?

The AUD will go up and down but I expect long term for it to go up whether or not there is a mining "boom".

You are as entitled to your opinion as I am mine and I respect that.

Not going to try and force my beliefs on anyone.

However, coming from a media background, I am basing my opinion on raw unbiased stats that haven't been skewed or angled by any subsequent publication.

I hope the stats are wrong and that your unbridled optimism is correct.

markymark21

I think I'm going to use all of our savings and buy a heap of BitCoin! Be graaaand!

res ipsa

Sin city u said I was talking wa1nk.
Looks like Res Ipsa Loquitur.

rightyabe

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

res ipsa

rightyabe wrote: »

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

Some ppl knew. Some ppl didn't + a the vast majority didn't want to know that they didn't want to know.

Xavi6

rightyabe wrote: »

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

Nope. I'm off to the States in August and had planned to buy my dollars at the end of the month

catbear

rightyabe wrote: »

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

I've been weary of it since i saw it go to €.5 - $1au in 08. Keep an eye on commodity prices and on any news out of China, rumblings of an internal credit crunch.

johnnyfruitcake

Should I send money back to Europe now? Will it rise more or fall?

statina

Not sure what to do now. Going home next month for a holiday. Don't know whether to transfer money now or wait in the hope that it picks up.

Caked Karen

im in the same boat as statina and not too sure what to do. going home at then end of july so dont know if it is going to change too much before then! would i be better off transferring to irish bank account? or else just top up to aussie credit card and use it at home?

statina

Think I'll transfer now as can see it dropping further with all the negative headlines etc. Hard one to call!

catbear

At a long term average the Aus$ is still above value compared to all the other floating currencies so I'm happy to keep sending money back to Euros for now.

It may not do a swoon like on 08 but I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to about €66c, when it goes that low then I'm sticking to saving in Aussie dollars.

ifeelill

$1 = €0.70

Thats about a ten cents rise in the value since the formation of this thread

catbear

Basically any slowdown in China is going to greatly affect the Australian Dollar. On the other hand there is more to Australia than mining so while the drop in commodity prices will affect mining states like WA and NT, the weaker Aus$ will good for other other sectors elsewhere. If what I'm hearing is correct NSW is starting to take off again for engineering/construction etc. Perhaps the end of the mining boom and its high wages is making some projects feasible again.

mise_me_fein3

Yes, I am hearing more positive stuff from Victoria also but regardless of all of this, now is a great time to buy some gold or silver bullion.