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Aussie dollar falling

s20101938

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

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eagerv

s20101938 wrote: »

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

In Feb 2009 it was 1$=0.50€.

Cannot see the dollar dropping to that level again, but hope i'm wrong as someone who visits fairly often from Ireland!

jackbhoy

When I set off for Aus in October 2008 1e would buy you AU$2.06.

5 year trend graph on XE is interesting:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=AUD&view=5Y

catbear

Australia as a commodity exporter has enjoyed a safe haven status since China started their stimuli programs in late 08, as demand for ore from china declines then the aussie dollar won't be as attractive. Oddly enough while WA is starting to stall I've been hearing more stories about activity picking up in NSW.
The strong $ could be around for another while, if national unemployment stays static and loans are getting serviced then we won't see a collapse back to 1.6 anytime soon.
That's what I'm hoping btw, otherwise feck it, I've enough saved to get started somewhere else.

kinggriff

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

moneymad

kinggriff wrote: »

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

Dollar will weaken. Look at Peru and Russia. They are commodities based economies. They're all going down.
In a few hours the Aussie fed will release minutes of what they plan to do.

mise_me_fein3

The RBA has set its interest rates at a record low but it is still way higher than compared to the rates in Europe and the 0% rate in the US.

If you save in US Dollars or Euros you won’t get a good return on your savings. If you save in Australian Dollars you will get some sort of cash return.
Look at how the Australian banks are performing. Australia has huge resources of all types and it’s also a leader in Agriculture.

I would not expect the Australian dollar to weaken a lot considering all the money printing than is going on elsewhere in the world. It may go down to 95 cents but I would expect that it goes past the parity mark against the USD in the next coming day again.

Once the FED in the US announces that it is not stopping printing money tomorrow the USD will lose strength again.

rusheen

kinggriff wrote: »

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

Your right its impossible to predict .
There was talk of the recession in 2009 continuing and getting as bad as everywhere else that didnt happen ...

Hard to know what to do . maybe send half now and more later

sin_city

rusheen wrote: »

Your right its impossible to predict .
There was talk of the recession in 2009 continuing and getting as bad as everywhere else that didnt happen ...

Hard to know what to do . maybe send half now and more later

As mentioned in the post before yours you will get more interest for your savings in Australia than most places.

People realize this so they buy Australian dollars to get a better return than the ones from Euro or US banks....This demand on the Australian Dollar causes it to increase.

When the interest rate is lowered the demand goes down.

Send all your money home and get 1% or keep it here and get whatever it is 2.5% or something like that.

The_Hustler

sin_city wrote: »

Send all your money home and get 1% or keep it here and get whatever it is 2.5% or something like that.

You got the difference in rates about right but you're very low with those percentages

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

catbear

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

That's pretty much what I'm doing although I do watch for dips and rises in the rate. If I'm in australia in the long run I'll probably make more that the savings rate by bringing that money back to Aus if the exchange rate goes back to its historic norm. If it stays strong then at least I'll have plenty of holiday money to play with in Europe and a nice wedge if I leave Aus.

sin_city

See what happens in the next 5 to 6 hours...either way the announcement from the Fed in the US will affect the Aussie dollar and all currency

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

See what happens in the next 5 to 6 hours...either way the announcement from the Fed in the US will affect the Aussie dollar and all currency

Wasn't quantitive easing supposed to continue until US unemployment was at 7 or 6%, I wonder what the current figures are. I might get the rest of the year out the strong aus$! That would be sweet.

moneymad

Don't wait too long.

IrishDownUnder

I hope it doesn't weaken too much still paying off some bills back in Ireland . Time to get a loan out here i think and have done with the up n down exchange rate .

White Cockatoo

kinggriff wrote: »

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

I'd transfer now if I were you. I myself transferred 6 weeks ago at 0.806 in anticipation.

We've a federal election in Sept and I'd imagine there's going to be a raft of expensive election promises from both sides in the interim. Considering the economy is already running at a deficit, these promises may discourage the markets from buying as much $Aud as they have been.

The above opinion, comes with the caveat that it's simply that, an opinion. I made a decision on this basis. Who knows how it'll pan out?

brendymck88

The Aussie Dollars fate will depend more on economic news from China and the US, any promises from Australian politicians won't move the FX markets. IMO the Aussie will probably end the year where it is, to ordinary punter you'll make/lose a few hundred dollars, further down the line (2/3 years) I'd expect a weakening probably to around Aussie gets $0.8 US. I'd be surprised if we saw a weakening like the Yen this year or the GBP in 2008.

FernandoTorres

I'd be worried about the prospects of the AUS$ vs the US$ but most people here will only be concerned about the AUS$ vs €. There isn't much sign of recovery in Europe and I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the next bit of bad news so I wouldn't be panicking yet.

sin_city

FernandoTorres wrote: »

I'd be worried about the prospects of the AUS$ vs the US$ but most people here will only be concerned about the AUS$ vs €. There isn't much sign of recovery in Europe and I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the next bit of bad news so I wouldn't be panicking yet.

You're right...the money printing in America will strengthen the US currency in the long term v:rolleyes:

The_Hustler

At a talk by Deloitte yesterday they predicted the AUS$ will stay strong until mid 2014. No worries lads

eagerv

Dollar still falling against Euro.

1.4$ = 1€ Today. (1$ = 0.71€)

res ipsa

The Ozzie is way overvalued & will take a bath. At least a 50% chance Oz will go into recession in the next 12 months.

sin_city

res ipsa wrote: »

The Ozzie is way overvalued & will take a bath. At least a 50% chance Oz will go into recession in the next 12 months.

What do you base this on?

Don't you know the reason why the Yen is losing value? They've decided to double the supply of money. The same is going on in the US. Sterling has lost 25% of its value in the last few years.

Why is the AUD overvalued? If anything it is undervalued against the US dollar.

Recession, Australia? If anywhere has a better chance of not going into recession it is Australia.

You're just talking wa.nk

res ipsa

eagerv wrote: »

Dollar still falling against Euro.

1.4$ = 1€ Today. (1$ = 0.71€)

George Soros pulled out of the AUD. Is he acting Wa1nk?
Don't u think the mining boom is over & the reserve bank will pull every trick to devalue the currency? You sound like the Irish landlord in 2008 convincedthat the price drops were only a temporary thing. Repent at your leisure.

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

You're just talking wa.nk

Actually WA is in recession. Just consider for a moment what would have happened in Australia in 2008 if China hadn't started it's massive structural investment projects. Before the Chinese move, the Australian $ weakened to 50Euro cent.
The Aussie Dollar may act as an emergency brake but I not convinced Australia as a whole will avoid a broad recession.

FernandoTorres

sin_city wrote: »

You're right...the money printing in America will strengthen the US currency in the long term v:rolleyes:

There are plenty of signs that Quantitative Easing will trail off in the US and this is being factored in to the rate at the moment. And FX markets don't always act in a logical manner.

hussey

sin_city wrote: »

What do you base this on?

Don't you know the reason why the Yen is losing value? They've decided to double the supply of money. The same is going on in the US. Sterling has lost 25% of its value in the last few years.

Why is the AUD overvalued? If anything it is undervalued against the US dollar.

Recession, Australia? If anywhere has a better chance of not going into recession it is Australia.

You're just talking wa.nk

Mod Ease up there tiger. You can make discuss the post without being uncivil.

catbear

FernandoTorres wrote: »

There are plenty of signs that Quantitative Easing will trail off in the US and this is being factored in to the rate at the moment. And FX markets don't always act in a logical manner.

QE is due to continue until US unemployment gets to 6-7%.

mise_me_fein3

catbear wrote: »

Actually WA is in recession. Just consider for a moment what would have happened in Australia in 2008 if China hadn't started it's massive structural investment projects. Before the Chinese move, the Australian $ weakened to 50Euro cent.
The Aussie Dollar may act as an emergency brake but I not convinced Australia as a whole will avoid a broad recession.

WA is not near a recession. Where did you get this information?
www.dsd.wa.gov.au/documents/000958.mike.thomas.docx

Try the WA government. You might be better off looking at that than listening to your man you were talking to in the pub last week.

It's true that the AUD has been losing value but once the sheep look and realize the fundamentals, the AUD should rise again.

You believed the French PM when he said the euro crisis was over last week too??? It's all good. 27% unemployment in Spain...all good, all good....:D:confused:

catbear

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

WA is not near a recession. Where did you get this information?
Try the WA government. You might be better off looking at that than listening to your man you were talking to in the pub last week.

Maybe you missed this while you were lecturing at the bar.

Growth in the mining state remained contracted for the second consecutive quarter as the national economy expanded 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, reflecting the peaking of resources investment, but a shortfall in the expansion of other sectors, analysts said.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-in-recession-as-growth-slows-to-a-trickle-20130605-2nqh4.html#ixzz2VtMQHKF3

Two quarters of economic contraction is a recession.