Rougies wrote: » He worded it like a true pro though, with words like, IF, MIGHT, POTENTIAL, POSSIBLE etc. before any mention of snow. We all know it's a bit of a ramp though
Bejubby wrote: » Over to RTE1 for the 9oc news and weather. Gerry,Siobhan or Evelyn hmmmm
Jerry Seinfeld wrote: » whoever it was after news at 6!!
Bejubby wrote: » Schnowww
Pangea wrote: » Well how was the farming forecast?
Macy0161 wrote: » Tried to resist posting on this, as I think they generally do alright, but a few posts congratulating them on calling the last day or so right have kinda got on my wick. Plenty of people here called a risk of snow, but at least very cold temperatures for Sunday/ Monday/ Today last week (Wednesday iirc was when model consensus). Met were way behind the curve on giving the public proper notice imo. Calling it on Sunday morning isn't giving people proper notice of the risk of severe cold and snow - they basically left it to a nowcast situation. Whatever about the general public, they could've given farmers and people that do rely on the weather more notice. They don't have to get into percentages - just tell the truth that they can't be certain, but the models are showing the possibility of much colder weather, just to give people a heads up.
Duggys Housemate wrote: » There was no accumulations where I am. Dublin. If Met Eireann did anything wrong it was over-estimating the risk of accumulation on their Sunday forecasts. They did predict the cold.
Macy0161 wrote: » They were still going with dry late last week, and then gradually upgraded until Sunday's 3-8cm possible. And some places did get that. My point remains, they shouldn't be getting slaps on the back given their forecasts on Thursday and Friday of last week, which really underplayed how things were looking and how things actually materialised. Even leaving aside the snow, they had to (apparently) be prompted to mention the windchill, which would be a big consideration for the elderly and for those keeping animals.
Duggys Housemate wrote: » Outside of this forum this is how people saw the forecast last week. Met Eireann predict cold for Monday. They predict "wintry showers" for Monday. On Sunday they upgraded. The upgrade was wrong, everything else was right. We got wintry showers of little import for most. As for windchill, they mentioned that in all forecasts I watched. I watched most reports from Thursday to see what they were predicting.
MidMan25 wrote: » If they were to give people a heads up about the possibility of colder weather then they would have ended up doing this quite a few times this year with most times resulting in nothing. Surely that sort of approach to forecasting would have much the same effect of damaging their reputation in the eyes of certain people. Damned if you do, damned if you don't and all that..
Macy0161 wrote: » In my limited knowledge, I think this was the first time there was such model consensus for the winter, so I think it is a bit different. I'm reluctantly having a bash, and wouldn't have bothered only I don't agree with them getting congratulated for calling it when I don't think they did.
M.T. Cranium wrote: » There was of course some fairly significant snowfall in two regions (in the ROI) from reports on Boards, namely the southeast corner including Waterford city and a zone in Meath-Offaly. But even outside those zones, just because snow didn't accumulate to any great depth doesn't mean it had no impact. People still had to drive in it, and some ice resulted on pavement. The impact on agriculture was probably quite significant. Without Boards, I feel that most of Ireland would have been rather surprised by the amount of snow (in the air) and to some extent the degree of the chill. Maybe not, but we made an effort to assess things and I honestly feel it was a reasonable effort, maybe we got a bit unlucky with the snow not accumulating (those of us including myself who were saying accumulations, that is, some were not). Maybe it is better to be wrong on the conservative side, that is obviously the philosophy of most government weather services. The market will determine these things if in fact there really is a market and not a rigged monopoly. You'll have to decide which of those you have, I'm too far away to give an opinion on it. Here in Canada, I have felt for a long time that the economics are tilted towards a monopoly; in the U.S.A. the tradition of private forecasting is far more advanced. If nothing else, the private forecaster has nowhere to hide when things go south, in a large organization somebody confronted about a bad forecast can always say, "I wasn't on duty that day" although "the models" are always the whipping boys of choice. Anyway, from my perspective, any errors were based simply on subjective interpretation, I think it was fairly obvious what was going to happen in terms of structure, but things were just marginally too dry (more than being too warm) for the snow produced to stick on the ground in most of Dublin. I find it a bit mystifying because Dublin is at 53 deg N and snow sticks on the ground at 2 C in New England at 43 deg N, you would think the small amount of insolation getting through there would be at least the equal but maybe the sun tries a bit harder over Europe knowing how many regulatory agencies there are. The sun knows that American courts are too busy with serious matters to get on his (its/her) case. Or maybe it's those ley lines.
ZX7R wrote: » Quite confused by Met Eireann today, on the 3pm forecast not a menchion of an orange weather alert on there forecast ,yet they have on there home web page.If they think having an orange alert on line they should have it on there televised forecast
Rougies wrote: » Not anymore
Jerry Seinfeld wrote: » http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp
