SiegfriedsMum wrote: » I hope you are right that the authorities are playing a sophisticated game, although the evidence for that is pretty thin. The structural flaws in the Euro have not been addressed, and until they are resolved the problems will continue. Simply pretending the Euro has fared well to date ( tell that to the Greeks and the Spanish etc etc) seems to not face up to the evidence. Its obvious you are not a pessimist and are something of an optimist. I hope I am more of a realist.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » Governments around the world have been dealing with financial problems for hundreds of years, and to suggest that they don’t know at this stage how to pull the various levers, or that there are new levers which have never before been discovered and which we are just waiting for various central banks to find, seems far fetched. To suggest that it’s only now that central banks & governments around the world are starting to apply what you call “creative thought” to the problems of financial stabilisation is ludicrous, as they have been doing that for hundreds of years, and have not just started to do it now. I wish you well with your thoughts that the government can control how much banks lend to individuals, to business men and to businesses and to others. I’ll bet you it wont work and will also bet you the banks will find ways around it, and in any case governments are pretty rotten at trying to run things as we see every day around the world.
KyussBishop wrote: » I'm not really stepping into the wider discussion, just picking at this bit: Economics as a field is in a pretty bad state, and with a lot of the deregulatory policies/ideology that have been (and worryingly still are) pushed, this has removed a lot of the policies needed to control such bubbles from the 'rulebook' as such. That said, you're right that most of the policies needed are well known, they just have to actually be relearned and applied; controlling how much banks lend to people/business is just a matter of proper regulation, and enforcing that regulation (with very stiff fines for breaching the regulations, whereas now we only have 'cost of doing business' fines, and only then rarely). There's not really any way around properly enforced regulations, but they need to actually be enforced; these give all the benefits of tightly controlling private debt and bubbles, without the collateral damage of high interest rates.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » I think this is the difference, which seems to be we started talking about structural issues with the Euro, and that’s what I am still talking about. You seem to want to keep taking the conversation away from that to the particular circumstances and actions or inactions of the irish Government, or to speculate about whether the Irish government might or might not have used the tool of higher interest rates if they has that particular tool available to them, which they didn’t. I never claimed they did. Again, you seem to prefer to talk about Ireland rather than about the structural issues with the Euro. You suggested that the Irish government did not, and does not, need interest rates as a tool to help maintain stability in the irish economy, because it would be able to regulate the banks to stop them lending. I pointed out that, if that happened, the banks are very clever at getting around such attempts by governments. No matter how many times you state it, it’s of little interest to me what the irish government did or didn’t do. I am talking about the structural issues with the Euro, not about the failures or successes of the irish government. I’m really not sure what the point is of one article talking about Brian Lenihan to try to show that the Euro is not under threat dues to its inherent faults. Here is one from the Economist which is rather more recent which discusses the problems facing the Euro. You’ll probably disagree with it, but it should demonstrate that not everyone has your faith in the Euro, and there is a considerable body of opinion which thinks its structural flaws are irresolvable, and will hasten it end.http://www.economist.com/node/21562206 Rabobank. You’ll probably now redefine “our banks” to only those with the name “Ireland” or “Irish” in their name J I said it was a principle but you are, of course, correct that, for example, bank of America were given emergency funding by the USA. You’ll note the USA didn’t take Bank of America’s debts and tell the people of Ohio, or Nebraska that they had to take those debts on and repay them. Bank of America has to repay the loans, which it is doing. That’s where we differ. You have faith that the Euro will continue, whereas I can see there are structural flaws in the Euro which mean there will be trouble ahead. Governments around the world have been dealing with financial problems for hundreds of years, and to suggest that they don’t know at this stage how to pull the various levers, or that there are new levers which have never before been discovered and which we are just waiting for various central banks to find, seems far fetched. To suggest that it’s only now that central banks & governments around the world are starting to apply what you call “creative thought” to the problems of financial stabilisation is ludicrous, as they have been doing that for hundreds of years, and have not just started to do it now. I wish you well with your thoughts that the government can control how much banks lend to individuals, to business men and to businesses and to others. I’ll bet you it wont work and will also bet you the banks will find ways around it, and in any case governments are pretty rotten at trying to run things as we see every day around the world. It is a fact that a structural flaw of the Euro is that individual governments are denied the ability to control interest rates for their individual countries. The right rate for Berlin is not the right rate for Madrid or Athens. Again you have “faith” that after hundreds of years of governments, economists, central banks and other around the world examining the issue, that sometime soon someone is going to find some new and exciting alternative tools which have not yet been thought of. Until one of those people in which you have “faith” finds the new tools which you are holding out for, this structural flaw in the Euro remains. I am impressed by your belief and faith that some new tools will be found, but after so many hundreds of years looking, what leads you to think they might be found in time to save the Euro?
McDave wrote: » Having seen the Irish economic cycle go round in circles over the years, with our seeming inability to learn being the only constant domestically, I'm probably closer to being a realist.
McDave wrote: » If I were to be pessimistic about any particular economic model in the West, it would be for the short-term, unsustainable Anglo-Saxon approach. Once the Euro has established itself on the world economic stage, I' afraid the dollar and, particularly, sterling are at risk of a slow decline.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: I’m really not sure what the point is of one article talking about Brian Lenihan to try to show that the Euro is not under threat dues to its inherent faults. Here is one from the Economist which is rather more recent which discusses the problems facing the Euro. You’ll probably disagree with it, but it should demonstrate that not everyone has your faith in the Euro, and there is a considerable body of opinion which thinks its structural flaws are irresolvable, and will hasten it end.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: Scofflaw wrote: I have no idea what bank you think you're talking about, though - the covered banks constituted 78% of the domestic banking sector, and it's rather hard to use a smaller bank to bail out a bigger one. Rabobank. You’ll probably now redefine “our banks” to only those with the name “Ireland” or “Irish” in their name J
Scofflaw wrote: I have no idea what bank you think you're talking about, though - the covered banks constituted 78% of the domestic banking sector, and it's rather hard to use a smaller bank to bail out a bigger one.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » Hers is a question; had Ireland had the option of putting up interest rates in the period 2004-2008, is it your view that would have caused collateral damage to the economy which would make irelands present predicament worse? The point of an interest rate policy is to prevent collateral damage, and has been used with varying degrees of success over the years and decades. The point here is that the very structure of the Euro prevents any government from having an interest rate policy, which is why it is a structural flaw in the Euro which has no obvious solution.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » By definition, am economic cycle is something which goes round and round, and thats not unique to ireland. Every country has an economic cycle. Every economy has a bit of an inability to learn insofar as it forgets the lessons learned in earlier times.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » Its an ususual opinion that the USA, which is on target to become a net oil and gas exporter, and who is creating more jobs at the moment than almost any other economy, employing more scientists than anywhere else in research, leading the world in IT and Medicine, and you judge the dollar will decline in relation to the Euro, which has huge unemployment and negative growth?
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » If you read many economists, you'll see many think the Euro is heading for the rocks. Of course, we all hope they are wrong, but hopes are really not enough.
KyussBishop wrote: » I didn't say interest rate adjustments aren't useful (indeed, the removal of their use, without the addition of adequate regulation to replace them, I may view as a damaging policy the EU is collectively responsible for), just that there are other policies for clamping down on economic bubbles, which allow targeting of specific areas of the economy, whereas the interest rate targets many areas at once (including areas you don't want to put a damper on, such as business loans).
KyussBishop wrote: » Even though I still dispute the extent of EU's regulatory role, the failure to actually put in place adequate regulatory measures at an EU level, to replace interest rate adjustments, is still a choice all member states are collectively responsible for; i.e. all member states are collectively responsible for negotiating inadequate EU policies, and for putting a dangerously incomplete system in place, without mandating the policies/regulations needed to provide a safe system (this goes for all problems the current EU configuration is causing).
Scofflaw wrote: » That does largely go without saying, but in addition, as far as I recall, the most we were able to come up with for the various EU bodies involved in financial 'supervision' was some rather weak overview competences and a communications and advisory function, so it's not really a matter of opinion the extent to which the EU institutions had regulatory responsibility. That they should have been given such regulatory functions and weren't, on the other hand, was a definite structural flaw of the euro system. Insufficient integrated monitoring, localised regulation, and no crisis plan - it's not really a very impressive list. cordially, Scofflaw
Scofflaw wrote: » Actually, I quoted the article in question in response to your claim that saving the Irish banks was about "saving the euro" - the quotes from Lenihan at the time make it clear it wasn't. You don't actually address that point, but move the goalposts somewhere else.
Scofflaw wrote: » No, I'm entirely aware of Rabobank, but it's far too small to have bought out Anglo or AIB or BOI, let alone all of them - the same goes for Danske, or KBC. Rabobank has a balance sheet of about €20bn in Ireland - it would have had difficulty swallowing even one of the small bailed out institutions. And that assumes something which is related to your point about "being Irish" - I doubt the government would have preferred to see even one of the smaller institutions be bought out by a "foreign" bank - again, other countries have ensured "their" failing banks were bought out by "their" non-failing banks. Weird, but I assume somewhere it makes sense.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » If you want me to agree that in one speech Brian Lenihan said this or that, then I have no problem with that. What seems important to you is that some people didn't think the Euro was in difficulties five or so years ago. And if thats what you want to concentrate on, that's fine.
Actually, I quoted the article in question in response to your claim that saving the Irish banks was about "saving the euro" - the quotes from Lenihan at the time make it clear it wasn't. You don't actually address that point, but move the goalposts somewhere else.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » We started off this discussion about structural flaws in the Euro. Your focus over the last few posts has been on Ireland, speculating what the Irish Government may or may not have done had they the fiscal lever of interest rates, which they did not have. and now wanting to parse a report of what the Irish Finance Minister said over five years ago. I am not really concerned about the Irish Participation in the Euro, but in the Euro itself. You asked me to name three structural flaws in the Euro, so I did. If it's your view that the Euro is a strong and stable currency which has no structural flaws, then lets disagree and move on.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » You asked "which of our banks didn't fail" and I named one. For some reason, you now want to discuss whether or not it might have been able to have bought one of the other banks which was bailed out, and further speculate about your doubts over what the Irish Government may or may not have wanted. The irony is then you accuse me of "moving the goalposts"
Scofflaw wrote: » However, as I said already, the euro does not appear to be going away, and Ireland doesn't appear to be leaving it, so I guess we'll have to hope I'm right.
SiegfriedsMum wrote: » As has already been pointed out we disagree whether the inability to use interest rates as a tool is a structural flaw.
View wrote: » You are starting from a flawed premise as: A) the ECB does use interest rates as a tool on a regular basis as part of its efforts to ensure low inflation, and, there is no currency anywhere in the world where its political "sub-compoments" (for want of a better phrase) get to set differing individual interest rates. A common currency means a common interest rate - you do not find cantons Schwyz or Uri setting their own interest rates never mind Nebraska or Oregon doing so. That said since you have shown great determination in discarding all evidence from outside the Eurozone that doesn't fit your view, no doubt you'll discount that latter point as well.
NAP123 wrote: » Give me an example of a Central Bank in a currency Union that is not allowed print money.
NAP123 wrote: » The ECB is not a Central Bank fit for the equality and fairness of a currency union.
View wrote: » Well, since the ECB does "print money" - or to be more precise, has the local central banks of the ESCB print money at the ECB's instruction - the relevance of your point is what exactly? Ahh, the old "I think it is wrong, therefore it is wrong" argument...
NAP123 wrote: » The ECB is not allowed print money.
NAP123 wrote: » The money it has given to Banks and countries comes with terms and conditions. In the case of Banks money is given inreturn for collateral and in the case of countries an interest rate and a Memorandum of Understanding. It might actually craeate the money artificially but it only loans it out. That is not the case with other Central Banks.
View wrote: » Really? Quote the article(s) in the EU Treaties where it says that... So, you are saying that the Bundesbank - probably the most conservative central bankers in the world - decided to gamble the entire German economy on a whole new type of never-tried-before central banking rather than stick with their tried-and-tested-but-boring old-fashioned central banking? I am not sure why you'd believe why our (Irish) central bankers would be so stupid much less those of every other member state who has either introduced the Euro or is legally committed to doing so. Central Bankers like boring in case you didn't notice...
NAP123 wrote: » I repeat, the ECB is constitutionally barred from printing money. Check its constitution. Noonan has repeated this at least a dozen times in the last 24 hours.
Article 16 Banknotes In accordance with Article 106(1) of this Treaty, the Governing Council shall have the exclusive right to authorize the issue of banknotes within the Community. The ECB and the national central banks may issue such notes. The banknotes issued by the ECB and the national central banks shall be the only such notes to have the status of legal tender within the Community. The ECB shall respect as far as possible existing practices regarding the issue and design of banknotes.
The European Central Bank shall have the exclusive right to authorise the issue of euro banknotes within the Union. The European Central Bank and the national central banks may issue such notes.
gallag wrote: » What do you guys think about DC keeping to his promise of keeping the rebate while also cutting the EU budget? Not many thought it likely.
Scofflaw wrote: » It's a worthwhile achievement, and a necessary one from his perspective. At the moment, though, it looks likely to be shot down by the European Parliament. cordially, Scofflaw
gallag wrote: » So if all of the countries agree it means nothing if the euro parliament dosent like it? This is what scares people and makes them skeptical.