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Turning progressively colder from Wednesday

Oarrack Bama

Hi all,

From Wednesday of this week the mild weather will be over and we will see a return of night time frost and ice on wet roads. Whilst not exceptionally cold the difference will be felt by everyone. Daytime temperatures will start to tumble back to normal for the time of year and by Friday should be below average.

Typical temperatures on Wednesday look like ranging 5 or 6c in the north to a balmy 8c in the south of the country.But it is at night time the difference will really take hold. Wednesday night will see the return of frost and ice to the country with temperatures hovering around freezing or a little above. By Thursday night they will be below freezing for most - maybe staying above freezing in western areas. Gentle south or southeast breezes.

Friday and the weekend look damp and cold especially further east and temperatures by day are going to struggle to 3 or 4c above freezing. Under cloud temperatures at night will hold up but only just. The east of the country should see below 0 temperatures.

Sunday looks like being very cold with temperatures maxing maybe 4 or 5c if lucky. Otherwise they could struggle above freezing. It should be generally dry but rain, sleet and snow is a probability in places under cloudy skies as a frontal system straggles the country under increasing pressure from a developing (and increasingly cold) easterly wind.

And this is where it gets tricky. No doubt it will get even colder but it's a question of how much colder? Currently favoured is an easterly wind to develop as a trough sinks south spurred on by an increasingly southern tracking jet stream (note this is getting that bit stronger with each model run). This brings the prospect of wintry showers, perhaps even snow, to the east in particular. But it's not the only outcome. Whatever happens from Wednesday the weather changes to colder more seasonal conditions and the probability is it gets gradually colder from then on with an increasing risk of sleet or snow from the east.

Take care.

Note: Forecast is blend of 00z GFS ensemble mean, 00z UKMO, 12z ECMWF, 00z GEM

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Rebelbrowser

Rocky Bay wrote: »

Yes it will, but only on Inchvale Close in Shamrock Lawn.

Actually looking at the 12z GFS this might happen! Looks like a short term upgrade to me. To my untrained eye there's a decent chance of snow to the East of a from Louth to Cork according to GFS from Sat evening through to Sunday afternoon. As this is only 102 hrs away its a possibility now on this forecast.

leahyl

All aboooooard!!!

power101

Decent upgarde on latest GFS run anyway. Easterley coming in around the 288 mark. Could be a bit of snow around the 120 hour mark aswell with the latest upgrade but will be very close unless the cold shifts further west. All in all if you want cold you'll like today's charts!

Oarrack Bama

On track folks, snow risk increasing over the weekend, back later.:cool:

[Deleted User]

heard we are heading for a big Freeze in a couple of weeks from a friend, similar to the Freeze of Christmas 2010.

Anyone else think this could be true?

pistolpetes11

Deleted User wrote: »

heard we are heading for a big Freeze in a couple of weeks from a friend, similar to the Freeze of Christmas 2010.

Anyone else think this could be true?

At the moment looking colder over the weekend , too soon to call it a big freeze

Oarrack Bama

Almost safe to say snow could well fall on east and south east coasts as early as Sunday. Not quite certain but we are nearly there. Just give it a couple of more model runs to firm up the details.

The OP is reasonable guidance given the charts.

Snowaddict

Current Operational (Deterministic) multi-model guidance points towards a very strong cold signal for NW Europe in the near term.

As of 20.30 tonight, this is the strongest cross model agreement that we have seen for a deep cold signal since the November/December 2010 episode which affected Ireland so significantly.

From a professional forecasting perspective, the outlook is exceptionally tedious, as should the ECMWF 12Z Det Guidance (tonight) verify, then Met Eireann's 18.50 is certainly erroneous - even to T+120 (Day 5) - disregarding any potential developments beyond this.

The two hurdles that we face are at both T+96 and T+144, in terms of establishing a sustained cold pattern.

However, we are still not at acceptable levels of certainty regarding such a potential cold outbreak. IF the majority of NWP Guidance shows a similar trend +24 from now, then certainty will become very high.

Further fluctuations in the NWP guidance remain highly likely!

Above all else - here's hoping that every frame of the 12Z ECMWF verifies, if not - we have seen some truly wonderful virtual winter synoptics!

SA

Villain

Welcome back SA, good post

ninebeanrows

Only seeing the ECM OP now/

But WOW

Oarrack Bama

Weathercheck wrote: »

Only seeing the ECM OP now/

But WOW

Where have you been!?:pac:

pistolpetes11

Out to 90 on the 18Z and still looking good

eskimocat

96 and 102 look good too!

solas111

I know that many serious weather watchers had a poor opinion of Positive Weather Solutions but I personally found it a useful site for long range forecasts. I accept that there is a fair bit of guesswork involved and that such forecasts could turn out to be completely wrong but it was still good fun and they did get it right quite a few times.

Is there another site out there similar to PWS?

derekon

solas111 wrote: »

I know that many serious weather watchers had a poor opinion of Positive Weather Solutions but I personally found it a useful site for long range forecasts. I accept that there is a fair bit of guesswork involved and that such forecasts could turn out to be completely wrong but it was still good fun and they did get it right quite a few times.

Is there another site out there similar to PWS?

Yeah try Mark Vogan - www.markvoganweather.com

Red Pepper

Bloody cold in Galway now. Car says 3 degrees C but there is frost on the cars already.

Speak Now

Red Pepper wrote: »

Bloody cold in Galway now. Car says 3 degrees C but there is frost on the cars already.

That would be about right id say.

solas111

derekon wrote: »

Yeah try Mark Vogan - www.markvoganweather.com

D

Thanks. That looks interesting.

maquiladora

Met Eireann Outlook, updated, based on the 12Z ECM, so if that downgrades then this will downgrade too, please remember that!

The weekend looks like it will be chilly, the lowest values, probably in the low single figures, will in the East with Easterly or Northeasterly breezes. There will be a good deal of dry weather with some wintry sunshine but some showers also, these turning increasingly to sleet and snow especially on Sunday. Nights will be frosty with fog and ice.

At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann Outlook, updated, based on the 12Z ECM, so if that downgrades then this will downgrade too, please remember that!

Wow nice forecast

pauldry

yeah they had a forecast similar to that in December and then it was rain the next morning I woke up. Think we will see some snow but it may not be as widespread as the significant stuff they are on about. I think it may just brush the East and Southeast and the rest of us will be going if only. Maybe we will get those spectacular frosts instead though which would beat the boring shi8 we have had these past 2 weeks

Saganist

I honestly think this is going to be pretty Epic for snowlovers.

Fuh Q

Just had a look outside, cars are frozen over and lots of fog...:eek:

rainbow kirby

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann Outlook, updated, based on the 12Z ECM, so if that downgrades then this will downgrade too, please remember that!

I'd be extremely happy with a downgrade on that, snow on Sun night would be an absolute disaster for me!

sdanseo

gbee wrote: »

PentaxW30 underwater weather resistant. two batteries fully charged.
Panasonic SD9 two batteries fully charged 32GB card.
Canon 5D MKII 3 batteries, in car charging capability
New this year: testing GoPro with underwater weatherproof housing, no spare batteries no charging capabilities.
@'

You're well prepared!

And the charging in car issue is easily solved with a €40 inverter from Halfords.

Oarrack Bama

I will update the OP based on today's 00z model runs. As of now it's pretty much spot on but that could change.

antodeco

Im watching with great interest as I'm getting married next Friday!

derekon

pauldry wrote: »

yeah they had a forecast similar to that in December and then it was rain the next morning I woke up. Think we will see some snow but it may not be as widespread as the significant stuff they are on about. I think it may just brush the East and Southeast and the rest of us will be going if only. Maybe we will get those spectacular frosts instead though which would beat the boring shi8 we have had these past 2 weeks

Well Pauldry, its a case of history now repeating itself. Look at how Met Eireann's forecast has updated this morning Thursday, with snow now restricted to high ground. The 0z ECM just released is a major downgrade:

bright start to Sunday but it will be quite cold as temperatures only climb to between 3 and 6 degrees in cool west to northwest winds. Outbreaks of rain will develop along the west coast during the late morning and some of that rain will fall as sleet and snow on higher ground as it spreads eastwards later in the day and on Sunday night. Another cold night with lows of 0 to 3 degrees.

There will be more outbreaks of rain and sleet on Monday although parts of the east and south will remain drier. Highs of 4 to 7 degrees in moderate northwest winds. The cold and frosty nights will continue on Monday night with a widespread frost.

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

Well Pauldry, its a case of history now repeating itself. Look at how Met Eireann's forecast has updated this morning Thursday, with snow now restricted to high ground. The 0z ECM just released is a major downgrade:

bright start to Sunday but it will be quite cold as temperatures only climb to between 3 and 6 degrees in cool west to northwest winds. Outbreaks of rain will develop along the west coast during the late morning and some of that rain will fall as sleet and snow on higher ground as it spreads eastwards later in the day and on Sunday night. Another cold night with lows of 0 to 3 degrees.

There will be more outbreaks of rain and sleet on Monday although parts of the east and south will remain drier. Highs of 4 to 7 degrees in moderate northwest winds. The cold and frosty nights will continue on Monday night with a widespread frost.

Gerry Murphy must have done that update;)

Blizzard 2010

nacho libre wrote: »

Gerry Murphy must have done that update;)

Thats certainly got the hallmarks of A Gerry Murphy forecast. I suppose M.E will upgrade when GFS gets in line. They are playing caution to the wind and rightly so' look what happened before Christmas and last February last year:pac: