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Possible Cold Reload

Redsunset

Very hard to read the current thread so,
Put all general chit-chat about will it or won't it in here, Leave the other for Model Discussion Only Please.

So i'll get ball rolling,

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aboyro

i am tinning food right now, fill the freezer and what ever i can't squeeze in i just leave outside from tuesday night on!!!!!!!!! oh lord have mercy, bring it on:D

Fiskar

thomasj wrote: »

Thanks redsunset

So lets start it off!

Does anyone know of any snow songs that dont relate to christmas?

Dean Martin - Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

alfa beta

Doh

K_1

The whole idea of caution seems to have left the forum. Remember in mid December the monster storm that was threatening to wipe out half the country at 72hrs?

Just advising against investing in preparations - be smart, i.e. be ready, but don't go spending a few k on a snow plough yet, or a months food supply yet! Spend all you want preparing when even Gerry Murphy is forced to concede that it's going to snow!

Irish Steve

K_1 wrote: »

Spend all you want preparing when even Gerry Murphy is forced to concede that it's going to snow!

will that be before or after Hell has frozen over

:D

Seriously, if that's possible any more at the moment, I appreciate all the comments people are making about the charts, but do we HAVE to quote the chart as well in the reply, it's getting very hard to tell what's new data and what's a copy of a copy of a quote of a reply:D

darkman2

Whooa! Just want to say I did not advise anyone to panic buy or anything crazy of the sort. This is not at all certain to happen as badly as predicted on the models. Last thing I want is some irrate farmer hunting me down with a pitch fork if things don't work out.

JMSE

UPGRADE, UPGRADE, UPGRADE !!!!!!!!!!

from beer to whiskey, you get to pee less

but on a serious note, if we're getting Siberian weather, does that mean theres someone somewhere getting our weather, I mean are the Icelanders goin pure mental up there right now on boards.ice over the prospect of getting a right hammerin' of drizzzzzle for 10 days on end ???

Nabber

Although this winter didn't come with much frost or snow (so far)
We had some pretty intense low systems off the North West and now a 1060 high in Russia.
Not only snow has to make it interesting

Although it does help. Plus snow makes all areas look the same rich or poor. Snow is a social saviour

seanknowsall

I still sticking to my view that Ireland wont see a single flake below 300 metres from this "Siberian blast"..... and even in the mountains the snow will be what you would expect during a typical Irish Winter. Its all speculation and just wait until Tuesday... major downgrade will be on hte cards... the intense cold will fail to reach beyond Eastern France and will give little more than a few sunny cold days and some night time frosts in Ireland. The Atlantic will break through on Tuesday and that will be it. I work in Dublin Airport and I can tell you that we consult official agencies...Met Eireann and other European ones and they still adamant that we do not have to put the snow plan into action as there will be nothign to worry about in the next ten days. Just watch the retractions and gradual downplaying of forecasts by the "experts" on here, like all those in the model discussion room.......

Mountainsandh

mountainy man wrote: »

I freeze bread, milk, rashers and sausages and all the normal frozen foods. be prepared:D and dont forget the chocolate.

Milk ? How does that fare when you defreeze it ? I must stock up my freezer, I'm in South East but around 190masl, and I got snowed/freezed in a lot during the last events (previous years). Have snow chains and a 4x4 this year so should be ok, but in really extreme conditions might still be tricky enough to get out of my place down to the main road 3/4 miles away.

... Mountainy man ... *** flutters eyelashes... ***

Yahew

seanknowsall wrote: »

I still sticking to my view that Ireland wont see a single flake below 300 metres from this "Siberian blast"..... and even in the mountains the snow will be what you would expect during a typical Irish Winter. Its all speculation and just wait until Tuesday... major downgrade will be on hte cards... the intense cold will fail to reach beyond Eastern France and will give little more than a few sunny cold days and some night time frosts in Ireland. The Atlantic will break through on Tuesday and that will be it. I work in Dublin Airport and I can tell you that we consult official agencies...Met Eireann and other European ones and they still adamant that we do not have to put the snow plan into action as there will be nothign to worry about in the next ten days. Just watch the retractions and gradual downplaying of forecasts by the "experts" on here, like all those in the model discussion room.......

well theres an opinion based on unrigorous non-science. The models have changed and are firming up - the atlantic is not coming through. The UK is definitely in the freezer.

The models chop and change so the instructions for Friday ftom the met will be different from tomorrow, and today. Met uk has just issued yellow alerts for tomorrow and Monday in the West & South West, there were none yesterday.

darkman2

seanknowsall wrote: »

I still sticking to my view that Ireland wont see a single flake below 300 metres from this "Siberian blast"..... and even in the mountains the snow will be what you would expect during a typical Irish Winter. Its all speculation and just wait until Tuesday... major downgrade will be on hte cards... the intense cold will fail to reach beyond Eastern France and will give little more than a few sunny cold days and some night time frosts in Ireland. The Atlantic will break through on Tuesday and that will be it. I work in Dublin Airport and I can tell you that we consult official agencies...Met Eireann and other European ones and they still adamant that we do not have to put the snow plan into action as there will be nothign to worry about in the next ten days. Just watch the retractions and gradual downplaying of forecasts by the "experts" on here, like all those in the model discussion room.......

Well done this man.

Far be it from me to argue with someone who, by admission, knows it all.:)

BEASTERLY

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Milk ? How does that fare when you defreeze it ? I must stock up my freezer, I'm in South East but around 190masl, and I got snowed/freezed in a lot during the last events (previous years). Have snow chains and a 4x4 this year so should be ok, but in really extreme conditions might still be tricky enough to get out of my place down to the main road 3/4 miles away.

... Mountainy man ... *** flutters eyelashes... ***

I may as well be the one to say it...you're screwed! There's only one thing for it, ring the irish air corps and ask to rent one of these babies...http://www.military.ie/uploads/tx_templavoila/6_Heli_Taxi_707pxl_01.jpg

mothel

seanknowsall wrote: »

I still sticking to my view that Ireland wont see a single flake below 300 metres from this "Siberian blast"..... and even in the mountains the snow will be what you would expect during a typical Irish Winter. Its all speculation and just wait until Tuesday... major downgrade will be on hte cards... the intense cold will fail to reach beyond Eastern France and will give little more than a few sunny cold days and some night time frosts in Ireland. The Atlantic will break through on Tuesday and that will be it. I work in Dublin Airport and I can tell you that we consult official agencies...Met Eireann and other European ones and they still adamant that we do not have to put the snow plan into action as there will be nothign to worry about in the next ten days. Just watch the retractions and gradual downplaying of forecasts by the "experts" on here, like all those in the model discussion room.......

You sound very certain?

BEASTERLY

Yahew wrote: »

well theres an opinion based on unrigorous non-science. The models have changed and are firming up - the atlantic is not coming through. The UK is definitely in the freezer.

The models chop and change so the instructions for Friday ftom the met will be different from tomorrow, and today. Met uk has just issued yellow alerts for tomorrow and Monday in the West & South West, there were none yesterday.

file.php?40,file=22180,filename=DontFeedTheTroll.jpg

JMSE

seanknowsall wrote: »

I still sticking to my view...blahdy blahdy blah

Why would the airport kick a snow plan into action now? Theres no snow now. And would they really have said 'we really should tell sean' if they were doing it? And how long would it take to man the ploughs, 10 minutes? Jeeeez!

M.T. Cranium

I'm just hoping for model consensus by 00z, with this potential major weather event just five to ten days out, we need to have a reliable basis for alerts and warnings. At the moment, I would agree that the range of outcomes is just about the entire spectrum from nothing much to a crippling snowstorm with severe cold.

By the way, this is not so much a case of late delivery as missing shipments, when I made my seasonal long-range forecast I was expecting two or three outbreaks like this from mid-January to about the time scale of this predicted blast, then a milder end to February. Instead we saw one weak cold spell (stronger in the UK) two weeks ago, then back to the Atlantic which seemed wounded but still in control, now this beast looming.

I would have to say, this Siberian-Russian high looks strong enough to have its way with a rather puny Atlantic so I rather expect the GFS solution to be closer to the eventual outcome than the Euro, but the interesting thing is that a blend of the two would actually give more snow to Ireland than either of the models themselves. I will cross-post this in the other thread since I got into a model discussion.

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Im in too minds if he is actually one or just very naive.

seanknowsall

I refuse to be dragged into the hype.... it will all disintegrate on Tuesday, and then everyone will be left wondering yet again where did it all go wrong?? It is dangerous, panic inducing and irresponsible for people to be on here talking about repeats of 1982 and prolonged cold spells ... there are useless journalists who will use stuff they read in here and start writing untrue and far fetched articles in tabloids in the next day or two worrying older people and farmers.

seanknowsall

And I no troll.... but I out of here to do better things. Goodbye forever

alfa beta

but pete - he knows all......you can do that and be naive at the same time....

sometimes i miss owenc....

Yahew

seanknowsall wrote: »

I refuse to be dragged into the hype.... it will all disintegrate on Tuesday, and then everyone will be left wondering yet again where did it all go wrong?? It is dangerous, panic inducing and irresponsible for people to be on here talking about repeats of 1982 and prolonged cold spells ... there are useless journalists who will use stuff they read in here and start writing untrue and far fetched articles in tabloids in the next day or two worrying older people and farmers.

People are merely repeating what the operational runs of the weather models show. When they arent showing cold people say that. Thats what this forum is for.

konman

seanknowsall wrote: »

I still sticking to my view that Ireland wont see a single flake below 300 metres from this "Siberian blast"..... and even in the mountains the snow will be what you would expect during a typical Irish Winter. Its all speculation and just wait until Tuesday... major downgrade will be on hte cards... the intense cold will fail to reach beyond Eastern France and will give little more than a few sunny cold days and some night time frosts in Ireland. The Atlantic will break through on Tuesday and that will be it. I work in Dublin Airport and I can tell you that we consult official agencies...Met Eireann and other European ones and they still adamant that we do not have to put the snow plan into action as there will be nothign to worry about in the next ten days. Just watch the retractions and gradual downplaying of forecasts by the "experts" on here, like all those in the model discussion room.......

Sorry but in what capacity do you work in the airport?

darkman2

seanknowsall wrote: »

I refuse to be dragged into the hype.... it will all disintegrate on Tuesday, and then everyone will be left wondering yet again where did it all go wrong?? It is dangerous, panic inducing and irresponsible for people to be on here talking about repeats of 1982 and prolonged cold spells ... there are useless journalists who will use stuff they read in here and start writing untrue and far fetched articles in tabloids in the next day or two worrying older people and farmers.

Nobody is panic inducing anything. It's simply reality that there is a strong possibility of a significant change to far colder weather in the next few days. That's all. People have common sense at the end of the day.

mountainy man

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Milk ? How does that fare when you defreeze it ? I must stock up my freezer, I'm in South East but around 190masl, and I got snowed/freezed in a lot during the last events (previous years). Have snow chains and a 4x4 this year so should be ok, but in really extreme conditions might still be tricky enough to get out of my place down to the main road 3/4 miles away.

... Mountainy man ... *** flutters eyelashes... ***

Totally fine, you would never know, takes quite a while to defrost tho mabey six hours so take it out the night before you need it. I have a 4x4 too but snow deeper than 18 inches will be a problem, so its better not risked unless its an emerency , steep hills are nasty even in 4x4 when covered in compacted snow/ice, I have a 90 degree turn at the bottom of the hill on my road and its difficult to maintain traction and momentum and can be touch and go if I can get up so I don't chance it if it looks really shiny

pistolpetes11

seanknowsall wrote: »

I refuse to be dragged into the hype.... it will all disintegrate on Tuesday, and then everyone will be left wondering yet again where did it all go wrong?? It is dangerous, panic inducing and irresponsible for people to be on here talking about repeats of 1982 and prolonged cold spells ... there are useless journalists who will use stuff they read in here and start writing untrue and far fetched articles in tabloids in the next day or two worrying older people and farmers.

The thing is the guidance you guys received last week was prob correct , but in the time since you first posted the information the models have changed so much its been unbelievable .

First time to use my mod hat now

I have no problem what so ever with your views, its the way you portray them, you trying to force what you think upon everyone else and the posting style is slightly antagonistic .

Just tone it down a little ,

Nobody here has said that this is a definite cold spell , even the title says possible .

Mountainsandh

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I may as well be the one to say it...you're screwed! There's only one thing for it, ring the irish air corps and ask to rent one of these babies...http://www.military.ie/uploads/tx_templavoila/6_Heli_Taxi_707pxl_01.jpg

I've a little boy who'd love that scenario. Wouldn't mind it either if the run up to it was comfy enough

.

I tried walking down one year with my big walking boots and all, to go to the shop 1.5 km away... had to give up, the road was too icy under the snow, and it was just too scary. I've been thinking since then the best way to get out of my place would be sleighing on bin bags through the fields, or get a lift off the local farmers on a tractor, but seeing as how they crash their cars left right and center into the ditches when we get snow, I'm not sure this would be very safe either.

Nabber

seanknowsall wrote: »

It is dangerous, panic inducing and irresponsible for people to be on here talking about repeats of 1982 and prolonged cold spells ...

The same could be said for not informing people of potential weather disruptions.
Fact is the models are pedicting this at less than 80hrs. Which although not guaranteed, it would be ridiculous to wait until the 'Airport' which I assume you mean the DAA, to give the go ahead to warn people at +6hrs.

I know there is zero tolerance here at the moment. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But opinions without logic are just informal fallacies.

Mountainsandh

mountainy man wrote: »

Totally fine, you would never know, takes quite a while to defrost tho mabey six hours so take it out the night before you need it. I have a 4x4 too but snow deeper than 18 inches will be a problem, so its better not risked unless its an emerency , steep hills are nasty even in 4x4 when covered in compacted snow/ice, I have a 90 degree turn at the bottom of the hill on my road and its difficult to maintain traction and momentum and can be touch and go if I can get up so I don't chance it if it looks really shiny

Yeah, and even the snow chains one time, I found that the snow was just that bit too deep, and it compacted at the back of the wheel opening, so the car was struggling a bit. Only have the chains for 2 front wheels too. I'm French and back in France they are fantastic on compacted snow after the ploughs have been, but unless a tractor chances it up my road here in Ireland, the snow down my hill is untouched before I chance going down.
I will absolutely try the milk defrosting thing, sure you wouldn't mind waiting if you knew you had some !

BEASTERLY

Folks, would a DAA employee be asking about this:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76611004

It was all a big lie!