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Big Race Selections - Based on Trends

LFC5Times

As the title suggests I am going to use trends to narrow down the field of big races to come up with some selections.

I did it a fair bit over the Jumps and it worked out well (didn't keep a record but definitely up more than I lost).

However I remember looking at the Flat last season and for whatever reason it seems the trends work better over the Jumps, could be something to do with the draw factor on the flat - I'm not sure really.

Anyway I will give it a go, if it doesn't look like it is working out I will just wait till the NH season.

Most selections will be from the Saturdays races.

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LFC5Times

Lingfield

3.10 - Derby Trial

Final Selections below:

Measuring Time - 1.5pts @ 7/4 - PP
Dordogne - .5pts @ 6/1 - PP

Ascot

3.25 - Victoria Cup

Narrowed down from 29 to 9 selections, will narrow it down further

Brae Hill
Nasri
Bay Knight
RulesN'Regulations
Hawkeyethenoo
Gouray Girl
Parisian Pyramid
Lutine Bell
Excellent Guest

Final Selections below: All selections are 1/4 odds and 5 places

Excellent Guest - .5pt ew @ 16/1 - PP
Gouray Girl - .5pt ew @ 33/1 - Boyles
Nasri - - .5pt ew @ 18/1 - PP
Brae Hill - .5pt ew @ 14/1 - PP

Haydock

3.40 - Swinton Hanicap Hurdle

Have it narrowed down from 24 to 6 selections, will try narrow it down further

Hunterview
Pokfulham
Andhaar
Rio Gael
Tatispout
Remember Now

Final Selections below:

Remember Now - 2pts @ 5/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 5 places)
Tatispout - .75pt ew @10/1 - PP - (1/4; 4 places)
Andhaar - .5pt ew @ 33/1 - PP -(1/4; 4 places)
Rio Gael - .5pt ew @ 28/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 5 places)

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Lingfield

3.10 - Derby Trial

Final Selections below:

Measuring Time - 1.5pts @ 7/4 - PP :mad: 3rd
Dordogne - .5pts @ 6/1 - PP Won - at odds @10/1

Ascot

3.25 - Victoria Cup

Narrowed down from 29 to 9 selections, will narrow it down further

Brae Hill
Nasri
Bay Knight
RulesN'Regulations
Hawkeyethenoo :rolleyes: Won @ 15/2
Gouray Girl
Parisian Pyramid
Lutine Bell
Excellent Guest

Final Selections below: All selections are 1/4 odds and 5 places

Excellent Guest - .5pt ew @ 16/1 - PP :mad:
Gouray Girl - .5pt ew @ 33/1 - Boyles :mad:
Nasri - - .5pt ew @ 18/1 - PP 3rd
Brae Hill - .5pt ew @ 14/1 - PP 4th

Haydock

3.40 - Swinton Hanicap Hurdle

Have it narrowed down from 24 to 6 selections, will try narrow it down further

Hunterview
Pokfulham
Andhaar
Rio Gael
Tatispout
Remember Now

Final Selections below:

Remember Now - 2pts @ 5/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 5 places) :mad:
Tatispout - .75pt ew @10/1 - PP - (1/4; 4 places) :mad:
Andhaar - .5pt ew @ 33/1 - PP -(1/4; 4 places) :mad:
Rio Gael - .5pt ew @ 28/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 5 places) 4th

Total Staked: 11.50 points
Total Returns: 12.50 points

Running Profit: 1.00 points

LFC5Times

York

3.00 - Duke of York Stakes

Narrowed it down to 5

Markab
Genki
Prime Defender
Rain Delayed
Rose Blosson

Was going to go with 3 of the 5 but have decided to put a small bet on Prime Defender (who won the race last year).

1/4 odds & 3 places

Rose Blossom - 1pt ew @ 8/1 - PP :mad:
Rain Delayed - 1pt ew @ 11/1 - Boyles :mad:
Genki - 1pt ew @ 6/1 - PP :mad:
Prime Defender .50pt @ 25/1 - Boyles :mad:

Naas

7.00 - Blue Wind Stakes

Not many trends for this race so probably shouldn't be using it but will go with it anyway.

Banimpire - 2pts @ 10/3 - PP

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

York

3.00 - Duke of York Stakes

Narrowed it down to 5

Markab
Genki
Prime Defender
Rain Delayed
Rose Blosson

Was going to go with 3 of the 5 but have decided to put a small bet on Prime Defender (who won the race last year).

1/4 odds & 3 places

Rose Blossom - 1pt ew @ 8/1 - PP :mad:
Rain Delayed - 1pt ew @ 11/1 - Boyles :mad:
Genki - 1pt ew @ 6/1 - PP :mad:
Prime Defender .50pt @ 25/1 - Boyles :mad:

Naas

7.00 - Blue Wind Stakes

Not many trends for this race so probably shouldn't be using it but will go with it anyway.

Banimpire - 2pts @ 10/3 - PP Won

Total Staked: 8.50 points
Total Returns: 8.60 points
Profit: .10 points

Running profit: 1.10 points

LFC5Times

York

2.30 - Dante Stakes

Seville - 2pts @ 7/4 - PP
Pisco Sour - .50pt ew @ 50/1 - PP

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

York

2.30 - Dante Stakes

Seville - 2pts @ 7/4 - PP :mad:
Pisco Sour - .50pt ew @ 50/1 - PP :mad:

Total Staked: 3.00 points
Total Returns: 0.00 points
Profit/Loss: -3.00 points

Running Profit/Loss: -1.90 points

UrbanSea

Unlucky. What site are you using the stats from by the way? Surely there's a stat that can rule out every horse if you look hard enough,that's what I don't like about stats.

LFC5Times

UrbanSea wrote: »

Unlucky. What site are you using the stats from by the way? Surely there's a stat that can rule out every horse if you look hard enough,that's what I don't like about stats.

I use the racing post paper and racecaller website.

I usually go with the horse(s) that would tick the most amount of boxes.

If for example a trend based on the last 10 years of a particular race says 7 of the last 10 where in the first 4 LTO - I probably wouldnt apply that trend to the race. Generally looking for stat of 8/9/10 out of 10.

I am not actually backing these selections it is just to keep a proper record for the moment.

In time I will see how the results would fare if the staking plan was just a 1 point win bet on all selections.

It is a bit of a nuisance having to buy the racing post paper to get the big race trends from it, and to see them online you have to pay for it.

I probably wont be around the weekend so I will most probably miss a few selections - wheter that is a good or bad thing, who knows.

LFC5Times

An example is the Yorkshire Cup race.

I have applied the following stats to it:

Won at least 3 times
Won at 12f or further
Aged 4 to 7
First 4 LTO
Rated 109 +
Priced 9/1 or under (used the prices from the RP website at the moment for this)

The horses in this race who had the most ticks where (with the amount of ticks beside them)

Manighar (6)
Duncan (5)
Askar Tau (5)
Electrolyser (5)
Clowance (5)

Askar Tau loses a tick because he is rated under 109, while the other 3 horses on 5 ticks lost a tick on not being in the first 4 LTO. So not exactly a strong trend to be ruled out on.

Native Ruler who might be joint fav lost two ticks for not having won at least 3 times and not having won over 12f or further.

So I haven't decided what horse(s) to go with, at this stage Manighar looks a likely selection and maybe one other, will decide in the morning when I have a look at the RP paper and see is there any more stats worth applying.

LFC5Times

York

3.00 - Yorkshire Cup

Manighar - 2pts @ 5/1 - PP
Duncan - 1.5 pts @ 7/2 - Boyles

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

York

3.00 - Yorkshire Cup

Manighar - 2pts @ 5/1 - PP :mad: 3rd
Duncan - 1.5 pts @ 7/2 - Boyles Won

Total Staked: 3.50 points
Total Returns: 6.75 points
Profit/Loss: + 3.25 points

Running Total P/L: + 1.35 points

LFC5Times

Newbury

3.45 - Lockinge Stakes

Canford Cliffs - 5 pts @ 5/6 - PP
Dick Turpin - 2pts @ 10/3 - PP

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Newbury

3.45 - Lockinge Stakes

Canford Cliffs - 5 pts @ 5/6 - PP
Dick Turpin - 2pts @ 10/3 - PP :mad:

Total Staked: 7.00 points
Total Returns: 9.16 points
Profit/Loss: + 2.16 points

Running Total P/L: + 3.51 points

LFC5Times

Haydock

3.00 - Temple Stakes

Overdose - 2pts @ 11/4 - PP
Sole Power - .75pts ew @ 10/1 - PP - (1/5; 3 places)
Borderlescott - .75pts ew @ 12/1 - PP - (1/5; 3 places)

Curragh

3.45 - 2000 Guineas

Dubawi Gold - 2 pts @ 9/4 - PP
Roderic OConnor - 2 pts@ 7/2 - PP

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Haydock

3.00 - Temple Stakes

Overdose - 2pts @ 11/4 - PP
Sole Power - .75pts ew @ 10/1 - PP - (1/5; 3 places) Won
Borderlescott - .75pts ew @ 12/1 - PP - (1/5; 3 places)

Curragh

3.45 - 2000 Guineas

Dubawi Gold - 2 pts @ 9/4 - PP
Roderic OConnor - 2 pts @ 7/2 - PP

Total Staked: 9.00 points
Total Returns: 19.50 points
Profit/Loss: + 10.50 points

Running Total P/L: = 14.00 points

LFC5Times

Curragh

4.15 - 1000 Guineas

I have narrowed the field down to four but can't seem to narrow them down any further so I could either leave the race alone or go with a bet so I have decided to go with a small bet on each of them.

Together - 1.5pts @ 7/2 - PP
Emiyna - 1pt @ 5/1 - PP
Misty For Me - 1pt @ 7/1 - PP
Ballybacka Lady - .50pts ew @ 25/1 - PP - (1/5; 3 places)

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Curragh

4.15 - 1000 Guineas

I have narrowed the field down to four but can't seem to narrow them down any further so I could either leave the race alone or go with a bet so I have decided to go with a small bet on each of them.

Together - 1.5pts @ 7/2 - PP
Emiyna - 1pt @ 5/1 - PP
Misty For Me - 1pt @ 7/1 - PP Won
Ballybacka Lady - .50pts ew @ 25/1 - PP - (1/5; 3 places)

Total Staked: 4.50 points
Total Returns: 8.00 points
Profit/Loss: + 3.50 points

Running Total P/L: = + 17.50 points

LFC5Times

Sandown

7.05 - Champagne Henry Stakes

Blue Bajan - 1pt @ 7/2 - Boyles

7.45 - Brigadier Gerard Stakes

Afsare - 1pt @ 8/1 - Boyles
Jan Vermeer - 1pt @ 5/1 - Boyles

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Sandown

7.05 - Champagne Henry Stakes

Blue Bajan - 1pt @ 7/2 - Boyles Won

7.45 - Brigadier Gerard Stakes

Afsare - 1pt @ 8/1 - Boyles
Jan Vermeer - 1pt @ 5/1 - Boyles

Total Staked: 3.00 points
Total Returns: 4.50 points
Profit/Loss: +1.50 points

Running Total P/L: = +19.00 points

LFC5Times

Haydock

3.05 - Grosvenor Casino Pinnacle Stakes

Ferdoos - 1pt @ 3/1 - PP

Newmarket

3.25 - Coral.co.uk Sprint Handicap

Apollo D'Negro - .50pt ew @ 11/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 3 places)
Bathwick Bear - .50pt ew @ 33/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)
Avonmore Star - .50pt ew @ 16/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)

3.35 - Timeform Jury Stakes

Regal Parade - 2pts @ 15/8 - PP
Beacon Lodge - 1pt @ 4/1 - PP

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Haydock

3.05 - Grosvenor Casino Pinnacle Stakes

Ferdoos - 1pt @ 3/1 - PP Won

Newmarket

3.25 - Coral.co.uk Sprint Handicap

Apollo D'Negro - .50pt ew @ 11/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 3 places)
Bathwick Bear - .50pt ew @ 33/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)
Avonmore Star - .50pt ew @ 16/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)

3.35 - Timeform Jury Stakes

Regal Parade - 2pts @ 15/8 - PP
Beacon Lodge - 1pt @ 4/1 - PP

Total Staked: 7.00 points
Total Returns: 4.00 points
Profit/Loss: -3.00 points

Running Total P/L: = +16.00 points

LFC5Times

Redcar

4.10 - Zetland Gold Cup

Arlequin - 1pt ew @ 7/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

Redcar

4.10 - Zetland Gold Cup

Arlequin - 1pt ew @ 7/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)v:(

Total Staked: 2.00 points
Total Returns: 0.00 points
Profit/Loss: -2.00 points

Running Total P/L: = +14.00 points

LFC5Times

I'm heading away for the weekend so haven't really had time to go in-depth into the main races over the weekend. I have done the Oaks & the Derby but none of the big supporting races.

Epsom Oaks

Blue Bunting - 3.5 pts @ 9/4 - Boyles
Misty for Me - 1pt ew @ 7/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 3 places)
Zain Al Boldan - 1pt ew @ 10/1 - Boyles -(1/4; 3 places)

Epsom Derby

Pour Moi -1.5pts ew @ 4/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)
Recital - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

I'm heading away for the weekend so haven't really had time to go in-depth into the main races over the weekend. I have done the Oaks & the Derby but none of the big supporting races.

Epsom Oaks

Blue Bunting - 3.5 pts @ 9/4 - Boyles
Misty for Me - 1pt ew @ 7/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 3 places)
Zain Al Boldan - 1pt ew @ 10/1 - Boyles -(1/4; 3 places)

Epsom Derby

Pour Moi -1.5pts ew @ 4/1 - PP - (1/4; 3 places) Won
Recital - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 - PP - (1/4; 3 places)

Total Staked: 13.50 points
Total Returns: 10.50 points
Profit/Loss: -3.00 points

Running Total P/L: = +11.00 points

LFC5Times

York

3.15 - Bond Tyres Trophy Handicap

Swiss Dream - 1.5pts ew @ 9/1 - PP - (1/4; 4 places)
Elusive Price - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 - PP - (1/4; 4 places)

LFC5Times

LFC5Times wrote: »

York

3.15 - Bond Tyres Trophy Handicap

Swiss Dream - 1.5pts ew @ 9/1 - PP - (1/4; 4 places) 4th
Elusive Price - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 - PP - (1/4; 4 places)

Total Staked: 6.00 points
Total Returns: 4.88 points
Profit/Loss: -1.12 points

Running Total P/L: = +9.88 points

LFC5Times

Ascot

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes

Canford Cliffs is the selection followed closely on the trends by Cape Blanco & Ransom Note.

Canford Cliffs - 3pts @ 6/4 - PP

3.05 - Kings Stand Stakes

I have managed to narrow the field down to five so far; Bridgetown, Overdose, Star Witness, Tangerine Tree & Sweet Sanette.
I will look to see if I can narrow the field down further.

Bridgetown - 1pt ew @ 11/1 - Boyles - (1/4; 4 places)
Sweet Sanette - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Boyles (1/4; 4 places)
Overdose - 1pt @ 12/1 - PP
Star Witness - 1pt @ 6/1 - PP
Tangerine Tree - 1pt @ 25/1 - Boyles

4.25 - Coventry Stakes

Mezmaar - 1pt @ 6/1 - Boyles
Trumpet Major - .50pts ew @ 12/1 - Boyles (1/4;4 places)

Nulty

That's the weakness with trends...Goldikova doesn't figure in them.

LFC5Times

Nulty wrote: »

That's the weakness with trends...Goldikova doesn't figure in them.

Weaknesses in all selections when it comes to betting - be it based on trends or your own interperation of form etc.