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General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

Beasty

Clearly a General Election is now expected to be called for the New Year, although an earlier one cannot be ruled out.

While we are happy for local election issues to be discussed here, there are a number of conditions (in addition to all our normal rules):

1. Stick to this thread – if there is something significant enough to warrant separate discussion, PM the Mods – we can separate out relevant posts if appropriate.
2. Local issues only – national issues can be discussed in the Politics forum.
3. Do not use this as an opportunity to resurrect topics where previous threads have been closed.
4. No electioneering – this is not a forum for simply promoting individual candidates or parties, or having a go at those you do not like.

Anyone who contravenes these rules may be asked to refrain from posting in this thread again and also subject to infractions/forum bans.

Thanks

Beasty

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SeaSide

i likes this

http://www.boards.ie/vote

could be interesting

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

i likes this

http://www.boards.ie/vote

could be interesting

Great idea, you can keep rechanging your vote up to the 9th feb.

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

35 teachers/lecturers out of 166 is a little bit overrepresented

Ahh the elephant in the room! When we mention education its always teachers wages or class sizes or school facilities but no one actually mentions the teaching standards. Are we really surprised with that many teachers in the Dail?

One of my pet gripes(I have loads!) is the standard of teaching of maths and particularly science which is essential if we are ever going to build this "smart" economy. I know two lecturers who teach science subjects and they have to spend the first part of the course teaching basics that should have been covered off in secondary school but the school system only teaches cramming and not understanding.

Just look at the amount of money parents spend on grinds in Dublin North alone because the teacher isn't up to spec, frequently blamed on the child by their teacher but you can see your childs decline when they switch subject teachers over the years. I don't mind paying higher wages to teachers that perform but carrying deadwood must stress the good teachers in the system or dishearten them. Are any of the local candidates offering anything new on education such as raising standards?

The Hill Billy

So, have you voted yet?

Corsendonk

Hill Billy wrote: »

So, have you voted yet?

Of course, it looks very realistic in other constituencies that I browsed so shocked by the leader in Dublin North after 1st preference.

SeaSide

self selecting sample

lefties can works da computing machines

FF can only use crayons as they could hurt themselves with anything sharper

The Hill Billy

Aye, there are a couple of bogeys polling high at the moment. Early days though.

Corsendonk

Lets wait and see if the guilty 3rd - 4th preference votes go to FF from the regular FF voters.

Corsendonk

Hill Billy wrote: »

Aye, there are a couple of bogeys polling high at the moment. Early days though.

Yeah I noticed someone voted for Dan Boyle unless he has a Boards account!:D

Good sample size for Dublin North, 51 voters so far.

cathy01

I voted, no surpises for who.;)

Corsendonk

cathy01 wrote: »

I voted, no surpises for who.;)

Make sure you tick the box above the ballot paper then you get the cool red tick under your nick which shows everyone you voted. I missed it first time round myself.

Beasty

Link to check the latest Dublin North poll

LeoB

Corsendonk wrote: »

Ahh the elephant in the room! When we mention education its always teachers wages or class sizes or school facilities but no one actually mentions the teaching standards. Are we really surprised with that many teachers in the Dail?

One of my pet gripes(I have loads!) is the standard of teaching of maths and particularly science which is essential if we are ever going to build this "smart" economy. I know two lecturers who teach science subjects and they have to spend the first part of the course teaching basics that should have been covered off in secondary school but the school system only teaches cramming and not understanding.

Just look at the amount of money parents spend on grinds in Dublin North alone because the teacher isn't up to spec, frequently blamed on the child by their teacher but you can see your childs decline when they switch subject teachers over the years. I don't mind paying higher wages to teachers that perform but carrying deadwood must stress the good teachers in the system or dishearten them. Are any of the local candidates offering anything new on education such as raising standards?

Actually hears 2 teachers chatting last night along these lines. Way to many teaching in secondary school who would be better suited to Kindergarden, there words not mine. I have been amazed in the past at the amount of kids who are doing grinds maybe 2 or 3 evenings a week. But maybe the whole system is wrong

Hill Billy wrote: »

So, have you voted yet?

Yeah, Excellent idea and looks quite good

LeoB

Just noticed driving through Shenick in Skerries and also in Balbriggan how low the Fine Gael election posters are. Some could be described as dangerous. Looking at James Reilly someone is pretty good with Photoshop

Jeasus still no canvasers at my door. Poor show altogether

Corsendonk

LeoB wrote: »

Just noticed driving through Shenick in Skerries and also in Balbriggan how low the Fine Gael election posters are. Some could be described as dangerous. Looking at James Reilly someone is pretty good with Photoshop

Jeasus still no canvasers at my door. Poor show altogether

They heard about you!!

The Hill Billy

Dr James Reilly canvassing in Rush this afternoon according to his Twitter feed.

LeoB

Corsendonk wrote: »

They heard about you!!

Hope you didnt tell them about me.

Hill Billy wrote: »

Dr James Reilly canvassing in Rush this afternoon according to his Twitter feed.

Yes I just had my first canvasser. A lovely lady called Alva on behalf of James Reilly. Very hard to rip into someone as mannerly and and as polite as she was on such a horrible day.

At this point in time my items will be, Social welfare fraud & health system on a national platform and locally the state of the roads and Gardái numbers on the street.

The Hill Billy

After the first full day of voting on www.boards.ie/vote the results (first preference votes only) are as follows:

Daly 33 (21.7%)
Reilly 24 (15.8%)
Ryan 19 (12.5%)
Farrell 18 (11.8%)
Sargent 18 (11.8%)
Kelleher 16 (10.5%)
De Brun 10 (6.6%)
O'Brien 9 (5.9%)
Kennedy 5 (3.3%)

LeoB

Hill Billy wrote: »

After the first full day of voting on www.boards.ie/vote the results (first preference votes only) are as follows:

Daly 33 (21.7%)
Reilly 24 (15.8%)
Ryan 19 (12.5%)
Farrell 18 (11.8%)
Sargent 18 (11.8%)
Kelleher 16 (10.5%)
De Brun 10 (6.6%)
O'Brien 9 (5.9%)
Kennedy 5 (3.3%)

I suppose this really shows the sentiment out there towards F.F even though its early days.

Based on these figures they have quite a fight on their hands to keep 1 seat. However if Michael Martin performs well in the next few weeks I think they will improve considerably.

The Hill Billy

If I have the time I will take the figures at the same time each day & post them up.

Corsendonk

Hill Billy wrote: »

After the first full day of voting on www.boards.ie/vote the results (first preference votes only) are as follows:

Daly 33 (21.7%)
Reilly 24 (15.8%)
Ryan 19 (12.5%)
Farrell 18 (11.8%)
Sargent 18 (11.8%)
Kelleher 16 (10.5%)
De Brun 10 (6.6%)
O'Brien 9 (5.9%)
Kennedy 5 (3.3%)

Well lets compare that to the Tomorrows Red C National Poll Result

http://www.thejournal.ie/labour-narrows-gap-in-latest-red-c-poll-2011-02/

Tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post/Red C polling results:
(Results from last four Red C polls – Paddy Power, Feb 2; SBP, Jan 30; Paddy Power, Jan 7; and SBP, Dec 19 – in brackets)

Fine Gael: 35 (37, 33, 35, 34) Down 2%
Labour: 22 (19, 21, 21, 23) Up 3%
Fianna Fáil: 17 (18, 16, 14, 17) Down 1%
Sinn Féin: 13 (12, 13, 14, 14) Up 1%
Green Party: 2 (3, 2,4, 2) Down 1%
Ind / others: 11 (11, 15, 12, 10) No change

No Martin bounce yet for FF. Enda Kenny release into the world seems to have halted the rise of FG.

Boards Poll National Figures Compared to Latest Red C

Time 20:20

1. Fine Gael 32.3% (Red C 35%)
2. Labour 27.1% (Red C 22%)
3. Independent & ULA 17.7% (11%)
4. Sinn Féin 11.8% (Red C 12%)
5. Fianna Fáil 7.4% (Red C 17%)
6. Green Party 3.8% ( Red C 2%)

It does show an anti FF vote on Boards and a swing to Independents & ULA. Some of the constituency polls are bang on but others like Dublin North and Roscommon-South Leitrim( Ming"The Merciless"Flanagan 63.5%) should be took with a pinch of salt.

Beasty

There is quite a high "turnout" for the Dublin North poll, and given the national poll is not too far off the Red C poll I suspect what we are seeing is not too far away from the overall sentiment of local voters

Having said that, it is possible that individual candidates could try to influence the poill by getting their supporters to register and vote - I suspect however that there has not been enough time for candidates themselves to have a material influence on the vote

Another factor here is tactical voting, which may be more prevalent in the boards poll, as individuals can see running totals and change their vote in an attempt to counter otherwise "popular" candidates

However I think the most significant issue with the local vote to date is they have not yet turned on the STV system. Hopefully this will happen oven the next couple of days, and I think that will start to tell a different story, given certain candidates will poll strongly with first preferences but could tail off rapidly on subsequent ones.

Bluetonic

Beasty wrote: »

There is quite a high "turnout" for the Dublin North poll, and given the national poll is not too far off the Red C poll I suspect what we are seeing is not too far away from the overall sentiment of local voters

The sample is flawed, therefore I wouldn't give much credence to it's results.

Beasty

Bluetonic wrote: »

The sample is flawed, therefore I wouldn't give much credence to it's results.

The fact it is flawed does not necessarily mean the results are materially distorted (although I fully accept this may be the case). Only time will tell with that. What I find quite interesting is that the "results" (particularly the national ones) are not too far adrift from other polls

tbh

Imagine my surprise when I found out I'm now in dublin west

I don't like it!

The Hill Billy

Plain madness splitting the town in two. I'd imagine that D15 is the focus of most candidates in that constituency.

I'll see about setting up a redirect for the Dublin West GE thread.

Bluetonic

Beasty wrote: »

The fact it is flawed does not necessarily mean the results are materially distorted (although I fully accept this may be the case). Only time will tell with that.

Even if the results of the general election are the same as this poll, that still doesn't prove that the sample was not flawed. Anyone who wanted to prove something and used this method of research would be mocked by their peers.

Back to reality the general shift in opinions in the country ensures most polls, with valid or invalid samples, show the same results.

The key is that just because you have the same outcome from two independent pieces of research that doesn't mean that they were both carried out correctly. Surely you understand that?

Beasty

The sampling of every opinion poll is, by definition, flawed - there is ultimately only one poll that counts. There can be no proof that any opion poll sample is not flawed as it is simply that - a sample

What we are talking about here is the extent of "flaw" and a pretty good indication of that will come out of the "real" results,

Anyway, this is not a statistics thread, so I'll leave it there

LeoB

Most polls are just to give us an idea of what the sentiment is towards any particular issue at any given time. I this is a reasonable reflection at this time. I do think there will be a slight bounce towards FF the more we get to se Enda Kenny.

Ming"The Merciless"Flanagan was quite good on R.T.E with Sean O'Rourke last weeek and he has "calmed "down some what from a few years ago. Would he be any worse than some of the independents we have had? Better than quite a few some would say

The Hill Billy

It will be interesting to see if there is any dip in local support for FG now that Kenny is 'too' busy to participate in the leaders's debate.