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General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

Beasty

Clearly a General Election is now expected to be called for the New Year, although an earlier one cannot be ruled out.

While we are happy for local election issues to be discussed here, there are a number of conditions (in addition to all our normal rules):

1. Stick to this thread – if there is something significant enough to warrant separate discussion, PM the Mods – we can separate out relevant posts if appropriate.
2. Local issues only – national issues can be discussed in the Politics forum.
3. Do not use this as an opportunity to resurrect topics where previous threads have been closed.
4. No electioneering – this is not a forum for simply promoting individual candidates or parties, or having a go at those you do not like.

Anyone who contravenes these rules may be asked to refrain from posting in this thread again and also subject to infractions/forum bans.

Thanks

Beasty

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[Deleted User]

Thank you loads.... you have put all the links into such a lovely order, and made it much more simple for me to present to him a decent list so he can read through and get an idea. Of course he'll probably just vote for whoever I vote for, which is why I'm being lightlipped on that.

I wont let him vote Finna Fail though, but English or not I don't think he's that thick.

Thanks again, the links above are really what I needed!!

The Rooster

LeoB wrote: »

You make a very valisd point there. If you are unsure of what a candidate will do or is capable of doing dont give them a vote. I am very unsure if we have a candidate with the "balls" of Mattie McGrath or John McGuiness running in this constituancy. Whether we like them or not Michael Lowrey and Jackie Healy-Rae got the goverment to row back somewhat on the universal social charge and thus aid the most needy in our communities. Ok the very wealthy will pick up this tab but I dont really have a problem with that

Personally I think that's very short sighted and its why I generally wouldnt vote for an independent like Lowry, Healy-Rae etc in a general election (different in council elections) - they've no interest in the bigger picture.

All this "helping the needy" and "take frome the rich" is all very well buts its bull in my opinion. Our needy already get twice as much as their equivalents in the UK, we went so far over the top in the good times in public spending it was ridiculous. No incentive to work for those happy enough to sit at home and play on their X-Boxes on their plasma tv screens.

This latest change in the USC brought in by the independents (and Brian Lenihan made it clear in his speech in the Seanad that FF would not have done this but for the pressure from the independents) puts the marginal rate of tax for self-employed up to 55%.

Its the self employed and the workers who we need to drive the economy rather than the lads on the dole or the civil service pensioners (who are getting pensions paid for by private sector workers). Giving more out in benefits will do absolutely nothing to help us, and will just encourage sponging off the state culture that some have. We need to get benefits back to a reasonable rate, somewhere closer to the UK rates.

The marginal rate of tax for the self employed should be no more than 50%, to encourage them to keep driving forward, generating activity, creating employment. Not only is a 55% rate discouraging them for entrprenurial activities, its encouraging them to bring their skills to every country (and people seem to forget that 100k+ earner that leaves the country, means we lose their tax contribution of 40k+).

Brigning it back to Dublin North again, I'll be interested to read the literature that our independent candidates send, but I'll be surprised if there's anything in there that will help get the ecomony back on its feet.

PAYE workers in Dublin North are right to be angry with bankers, politicians, etc. and to be worried about their jobs. But when picking our next politicians we need to be thinking about the ones who will help drive employment, not the ones who work on the catchphrase of helping the needy - otherwise we'll all be needy and we'll have nobody to fund us.

SeaSide

With the just announced forced retirement of Noel O'Flynn in Cork I wonder will we see the Dublin North FF ticket going from two to one?

Corsendonk

Deleted User wrote: »

Thank you loads.... you have put all the links into such a lovely order, and made it much more simple for me to present to him a decent list so he can read through and get an idea. Of course he'll probably just vote for whoever I vote for, which is why I'm being lightlipped on that.

I wont let him vote Finna Fail though, but English or not I don't think he's that thick.

Thanks again, the links above are really what I needed!!

English Translation of Irish Parties might help him.

Labour- New Labour
FG- Conservatives
SF- UK Independence Party
Socialist- Old Labour Lunatic fringe
Greens- UK Green Party
FF- no real english equivalant - Gaulists

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

With the just announced forced retirement of Noel O'Flynn in Cork I wonder will we see the Dublin North FF ticket going from two to one?

Yes it does make sense as we said they need to be polling 20% on 1st preference to pull a co candidate over the line. Martin is showing his hand by asking one of his Loyalists to fall on his sword so it won't look so bad when he asks Lenny's supporters in Dublin to do the same. Flynn had already sent out a campaign mailout so shows how sudden the change in policy is. Some of the candidates requested to withdraw might try a solo run at the Dail.

James Reilly (FG)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Brendan Ryan (Lab)
Tom Kelleher (Lab)
Trevor Sargent (Gr)
Clare Daly (Soc)
Marcus de Brun (Ind)
Darragh O'Brien (FF)
Michael Kennedy (FF)

It does make the 4th seat more interesting. I haven't factored in SF because as far as I know they haven't selected a candidate even do the bookies are quoting odds on one.

James Reilly (FG)- 34% in national polls and possible health ministers job should easily coast him over.
Brendan Ryan (Lab)- Labour riding high in polls and leading party in FCC.
Darragh O'Brien (FF)- FF loyalists behind one candidate should get him over the line in third. I am guessing that FF HQ will favour O'Brien over Kennedy even do Kennedy is a poll topper. FF have entered survival mode so age will play a factor.
Trevor Sargent (Gr) /Clare Daly (Soc) - Daly needs to poll really well on the 1st pref, she doesn't really get many transfers and Trevor should be able to pull in transfers from Balbriggan but he needs to survive the first counts.

The Rest

Tom Kelleher (Lab) - Would have a better chance if running with sitting TD. Struggles to get 1500 votes in local elections.
Marcus de Brun (Ind) - Unknown and campaigned centres around one policy area, might do better but he needs at least 7,000 1st preference votes to be within a chance if the turnout is like the last election.
Alan Farrell (FG) - Following his Twitter he only canvasses in Malahide, Swords and Portmarnock. While you could argue that FG may have done what FF did with Glennon/Wright when they split the constituency into North/South to manage votes, his profile is too low outside his patch to garner second Pref from Reilly. Secondly Portmarnock and Swords have lost voters to other constituencies in boundary changes. If he is serious about getting a seat in the next Dail he needs to get into his car and discover the rest of Dublin North beyond Malahide and Swords.

The Hill Billy

I see that local boy Darragh O'Brien has made the front bench for Sport despite his local party colleague being more voiciferous in the push against Cowen. Maybe Martin is hoping our fresh-faced Fingal TD will add some appealing youthful sparkle to the party.

Corsendonk

Hill Billy wrote: »

I see that local boy Darragh O'Brien has maded the front bench for Sport despite his local party colleague being more voiciferous in the push against Cowen. Maybe Martin is hoping our fresh-faced Fingal TD will add some appealing youthful sparkle to the party.

True, it also helps highlight Darragh O'Brien biggest claim to fame in his first Dail term, that of the new international cricket stadium in Malahide, now only if the Irish cricket team can cause an upset or two at the Cricket WC over the next month.......

ESPN

Malahide Cricket Club in Dublin has secured a grant of €450,000 from the Irish government to become the country's newest international-standard venue, thanks to a deal brokered by Darragh O'Brien, the TD (Member of Parliament) for Dublin North. According to a press release, it is "conservatively estimated" that each major international game held at the ground in future will generate €1.5m for the economy.

"I'm delighted to confirm that the Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport Mary Hanafin has sanctioned a grant of €450,000 for the redevelopment of the cricket ground at Malahide Cricket Club," saidDeputy O'Brien. "The funding will be used to extend the ground (playing pitch), making it the first international standard cricket ground in the Republic of Ireland with a capacity of 12,000. It will also be the only international ground for any sport in the North Dublin area

dsmythy

I live in Swords but now have to go into the Dublin West forums for talk about my TD's. It's strange looking at a completely different batch of candidates I must say

imokyrok

Only one woman on that list. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

dubmick

Is Michael Kennedy still running?

Corsendonk

dubmick wrote: »

Is Michael Kennedy still running?

Yeap for the moment but Martin is reviewing his candidates were he has two running. RTE is reporting that FF is polling 10% in Dublin. 6% below the Red C national poll of 16% so something has got to give soon.

Corsendonk

dsmythy wrote: »

I live in Swords but now have to go into the Dublin West forums for talk about my TD's. It's strange looking at a completely different batch of candidates I must say

Dublin West should get more press coverage with the charactors you have! If Vincent Brown last week was a taste of things to come.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFJV9RZ716A

SeaSide

Corsendonk wrote: »

True, it also helps highlight Darragh O'Brien biggest claim to fame in his first Dail term, that of the new international cricket stadium in Malahide, now only if the Irish cricket team can cause an upset or two at the Cricket WC over the next month.......

Colour me sceptical but has this progressed a fraction of a millimetre since since the announcement in October?

Seen too many announcements which are then re-announced and then die quietly

LeoB

The Rooster wrote: »

Personally I think that's very short sighted and its why I generally wouldnt vote for an independent like Lowry, Healy-Rae etc in a general election (different in council elections) - they've no interest in the bigger picture.

All this "helping the needy" and "take frome the rich" is all very well buts its bull in my opinion. Our needy already get twice as much as their equivalents in the UK, we went so far over the top in the good times in public spending it was ridiculous. No incentive to work for those happy enough to sit at home and play on their X-Boxes on their plasma tv screens.

This latest change in the USC brought in by the independents (and Brian Lenihan made it clear in his speech in the Seanad that FF would not have done this but for the pressure from the independents) puts the marginal rate of tax for self-employed up to 55%.

Its the self employed and the workers who we need to drive the economy rather than the lads on the dole or the civil service pensioners (who are getting pensions paid for by private sector workers). Giving more out in benefits will do absolutely nothing to help us, and will just encourage sponging off the state culture that some have. We need to get benefits back to a reasonable rate, somewhere closer to the UK rates.

The marginal rate of tax for the self employed should be no more than 50%, to encourage them to keep driving forward, generating activity, creating employment. Not only is a 55% rate discouraging them for entrprenurial activities, its encouraging them to bring their skills to every country (and people seem to forget that 100k+ earner that leaves the country, means we lose their tax contribution of 40k+).

Brigning it back to Dublin North again, I'll be interested to read the literature that our independent candidates send, but I'll be surprised if there's anything in there that will help get the ecomony back on its feet.

PAYE workers in Dublin North are right to be angry with bankers, politicians, etc. and to be worried about their jobs. But when picking our next politicians we need to be thinking about the ones who will help drive employment, not the ones who work on the catchphrase of helping the needy - otherwise we'll all be needy and we'll have nobody to fund us.

Hard to disagre with you. But I am not talking about scroungers here in my post and didnt mean it to sound like that. I would be banned if if I were to say where S/W cuts should be made and who they should be taken from but that a different argument. It was mentioned on Liveline today and the speaker was cut off. Do an audit of money transfer companies and we will see pretty soon where a lot of money is going.

I agree every incentive should be given to our self employed people who have great drive and can make a massive contribution yet get screwed into the ground when things get tight on just about every front. Again people hop off planes and get very well looked after while a huge amount of NCD people are going to wall because there is little assistance for them.

SeaSide wrote: »

With the just announced forced retirement of Noel O'Flynn in Cork I wonder will we see the Dublin North FF ticket going from two to one?

Rumour this evening that Kennedy may be asked to step down

Hill Billy wrote: »

I see that local boy Darragh O'Brien has made the front bench for Sport despite his local party colleague being more voiciferous in the push against Cowen. Maybe Martin is hoping our fresh-faced Fingal TD will add some appealing youthful sparkle to the party.

O Brien in fairness is a great supporter of all sports in N.C.D. and this is not a massive investment when we look at what other sports have got. And if the firgure are correct its a good investment

Corsendonk wrote: »

Yeap for the moment but Martin is reviewing his candidates were he has two running. RTE is reporting that FF is polling 10% in Dublin. 6% below the Red C national poll of 16% so something has got to give soon.

I think we may have one candidte in out here and it looks like O'Brien could be the one.

I think he has a lot offer and is bringing out a better cleaner image of politics as are other younger politicans from all sides and he is a break with the past. Performed well on R.T.E yesterday.

Corsendonk

Colour me sceptical but has this progressed a fraction of a millimetre since since the announcement in October?

Seen too many announcements which are then re-announced and then die quietly

They relaid the wickets last year. I haven't heard if they started on the seating area but I think there is confusion when we hear its a 12,000 capacity stadium. The model its based on is the very scenic Queenstown Stadium in New Zealand. Grass banks with one main stand.

Corsendonk

Beasty

@Corsendonk

You are James Reilly? Well I never .....:D

The Rooster

The current situation is both Kennedy and O'Brien are to run for FF, according to Irish Times today.

Sizzler

The Rooster wrote: »

The current situation is both Kennedy and O'Brien are to run for FF, according to Irish Times today.

Neither of them deserve to get back in IMHO.

Corsendonk

Sizzler wrote: »

Neither of them deserve to get back in IMHO.

True but a very valid point was made in the politics forum that we are so focused on voting FF out that we are not paying attention to the policies of those we may vote in to replace them.

Sizzler

Corsendonk wrote: »

True but a very valid point was made in the politics forum that we are so focused on voting FF out that we are not paying attention to the policies of those we may vote in to replace them.

Have a look at my thread over there asking the same thing.

We get what we deserve as voters and if you vote either of these numptys back in you are only contributing to a national ill, not a local one.

Corsendonk

Has anyone had canvassers come to the door yet?

SeaSide

not one has made it passed the dogs yet but a few did get by the minefield and razor wire.

but seriously no. Couple of leaflets and two dail letters from TDs (Reilly and Kennedy) which puts them to the back of the queue

cathy01

I had James Reilly and Claire Daly. Clair called late, it was about 8.30.

pinkypinky

I don't expect any: I live in an apartment block.
Am actually considering mailing all the candidates a short list of questions, since they are unlikely to call at my door.

Beasty

Constituency Profile from today's Irish Times here

Corsendonk

Is Kennedy from Balbriggan? I never knew that.

Irish Times Today

O’Brien is based in Malahide, the more middle-class end of the constituency and a long-time Fianna Fáil bailiwick, while Kennedy is from Balbriggan but has cleverly established a strong base in Swords.

Some posters on another forum have pointed out that Kelleher(LB) has been beside Gilmour in two of his press conferences this week to help raise his profile. Labour must think he is a strong candidate that they are going to so much trouble.

SeaSide

Corsendonk wrote: »

Is Kennedy from Balbriggan? I never knew that.

Irish Times Today

Some posters on another forum have pointed out that Kelleher(LB) has been beside Gilmour in two of his press conferences this week to help raise his profile. Labour must think he is a strong candidate that they are going to so much trouble.

Probably marginal and they think the exposure will get him across the line. I dont think that we need more teachers in the dail however

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

Probably marginal and they think the exposure will get him across the line. I dont think that we need more teachers in the dail however

What harm could teachers do in the Dail?

SeaSide

35 teachers/lecturers out of 166 is a little bit overrepresented