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Target for Feb 14th

Bumsex

Hey lads,long time admirer of this log section,some great logs,have been meaning to set up one of these just to keep track of my bets and try and gain some discipline which i think is missing from my gambling "life"..
Will mostly be betting on horses and the odd soccer game which offers a bit of value.
I am a profitable punter but feel i can improve further with this log as i have seen others do so easily enough.
I will be using pp,bet365 and betfair for prices.I have a starting bank of €2500 and have set myself a target of €6000, that is to be met by the end of feb.
Talk soon.;)

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L'prof

Bumsex wrote: »

ok but how does that work on betfair,who gets the money,the line is 3.5, surely its a push there..

3.5 doesn't allow for a push though!

Bumsex

Bumsex wrote: »

ok but how does that work on betfair,who gets the money,the line is 3.5, surely its a push there..

^^^...:p

Bumsex

Martin Adams v Dean Winstanley Checkout Score
Over 134.5 @ 3/4

120

Bumsex

Bumsex wrote: »

Martin Adams v Dean Winstanley Total 180s
Over 134.5 @ 3/4

120

nice 1..:D..
looks like there could be a few that will go over the spread,most recent one was adams checking out 151..:p

turbobaby

Bumsex wrote: »

Martin Adams v Dean Winstanley Total 180s
Over 134.5 @ 3/4

120

You'll struggle to find over 134.5 180s in this match. You've obviously posted in error somewhere?

Bumsex

another 100 on Adams @ 2.24.

thanks for spoting that...:pac:
il correct it there now.

Bumsex

Bumsex wrote: »

another 100 on Adams @ 2.24.

.

lovely just lovely..:D

Bumsex wrote: »

NFL Matches
Baltimore Ravens At Kansas City Chiefs
2011-01-09 18:00:00
Handicap Betting
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ 11/10
250

thanks jive,thats great so as the market is being very generous.stake increased by another 50 aswel as it seems to be great value

another winner,cant get much better than that,they are hammering chiefs at the moment 30-7..easy as you like,thanks for getting me interested in this bet archie...;)

Bumsex wrote: »

BDO World Championship - Outright Betting
Martin "Wolfie" Adams @ 10/11
280

wins,thats back to back world titles for wolfie now.i just love him,he has some nerve and a true professional at what he does best..darts

had a total of 380 on him,couldnt of been in safer hands..:p

Kod-box

He would get fairly hammered if he stepped over to the PDC though.

Bumsex

Kod-box wrote: »

He would get fairly hammered if he stepped over to the PDC though.

i couldnt care less.:rolleyes:
money in the bag..:p

shineon23

turbobaby wrote: »

You'll struggle to find over 134.5 180s in this match. You've obviously posted in error somewhere?

must mean something to do with biggest check out??

Bumsex

well after getting off to an awful (900 down at 1 stage)start to the new log i have managed to swing things around and am now in profit..
kept the head like you should,take every bet as it comes and i theres nothing you fancy dont have a bet for the sake of it and you should be fine.

now that im in profit the target shouldnt be that hard to meet..

Balance=3383
Profit=883

Bumsex

NBA Matches
New York Knicks At Los Angeles Lakers
2011-01-10 02:35:00
Handicap Betting
New York Knicks (+7.5)

285
Knicks have won 5 of their last 7 games, They are 21-14 for the season and 11-7 away from home.

The Lakers have won 5 of their last 6, They are 26-11 for the season and 13-5 for the season.

New York have covered the line in 11 of their last 13 away games, 40 of their last 59 away games against teams with a home win/loss record above 60%, while the Lakers have covered in 4 of their last 14 following a game in which they failed to cover the line, 3 of their last 12 as a favourite between 5 and 11 points, and 1 of their last 7 home games as favourites.

As the head to head odds reflect the betting line,there is prob some value in knicks straight win but i will wait for an in running bet hoping the line will drop so i can take the knicks +...

Bumsex

NBA Matches
Miami Heat At Portland Trail Blazers
2011-01-10 02:05:00
Match Betting
Miami Heat @ 1/2

350

the handicap is something im half thinking of going in on,currently -5,but i just think il go with the straight win this time...
The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Portland is coming in off a nice win and cover over the Timberwolves, but are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

One of the most inform teams from the NBA, Miami who won their last 8 matches in a row.
I know Portland are a good team a home and that Miami needed overtime to win last match at Milwaukee but in fairness champions are allways winnning no matter their what their shooting percentage.They won even though their best player had a poor game and I don't see him playing that bad today.
Blazers Brandon Roy and against a good defensive like Miami has it will be even harder.
Miami to win as they should have james and wade in good form,and with a defense like they have i cant see blazers getting too much off them...
will wait again for a in running bet to hopefully get better odds/value...

NBA Matches
Miami Heat At Portland Trail Blazers
2011-01-10 02:05:00
Total Points Scored
Under (190.5)

175

The current price of Under 184.5 on betfair at evens is very good value imo.
but as always wait for the line to go in favour and then jump on..
This is some solid info that i found about the game that should tip in favour of the unders.
Consider that plays Under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Portland in this case) in a game involving two solid defensive teams (92-98 ppg allowed), after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 39-14 (73.6%) the last 5 seasons. We are seeing an average posted total of 186 in this situation and only 180.8 total points scored on average.
A lot of stats there but thats what the NBA is all about and with a bit of analysis you can reap the rewards...even though they say its the toughest sport to make a profit in if your betting on it consistently..

Bumsex

NBA Matches
New York Knicks At Los Angeles Lakers
2011-01-10 02:35:00
Total Points Scored
Under (212.5) 10/11

200

The line is currently 211.5 and is reasonable but will wait for hopefully a better one in running..Some more useful stats ive found that favor the unders once again.
Plays Under on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, if that team is coming off a road win in which it scored 110 or more points, and if it is well rested playing 4 or less games in 10 days, are 27-6 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these games have been 210.7 and we are only seeing 200.3 total points scored on average. The Under is 5-0-1 in the Knicks' last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-3 in the Lakers' last 11 home games..

Bumsex

NBA Matches
New Orleans Hornets At Denver Nuggets
2011-01-10 02:05:00
Handicap Betting
Denver Nuggets (+2.5) NAP

450

Currently the spread is -5,this would prob be the play in which i am most confident about,theirs a system that has been around and one that i have been following ever since i saw it and the hit rate is 75% at the sp spread.
if you wait for in running and the spread goes in your favour then its even higher(90%).
So heres how it goes,play on home favorites off back to back road favorite losses if the last lost was by 10 or more points.
A Secondary system is to play on rested conference home favorites from -5 to -10 that are off a road favored loss and allowed 120 or more points. This one hits as i said around 80% long term. The Nuggets were blown away by a poor Sacramento team in their last game while the Hornets lost a close one late to the Lakers.Take the nuggets to cover the spread,in play bet for me though..

jive

ive gone for overs in the heat game, hope ya lose ya **** :P

Gavin "shels"

To get up €1800 in 4 days is f*cking impressive, fairplay.

Bumsex

jive wrote: »

ive gone for overs in the heat game, hope ya lose ya **** :P

well i waited for in play like i said and took under 190.5...delighted with the 6 point increase in the spread,just goes to show,always wait for in running..
hopefully it will be a good night,a lot going to be staked

jive

Bumsex wrote: »

well i waited for in play like i said and took under 190.5...delighted with the 6 point increase in the spread,just goes to show,always wait for in running..
hopefully it will be a good night,a lot going to be staked

best of luck i hope it stays under 190 but over 184 (or 183 cant remember what i took it at)

won a huge amount on roulette the last few days but was inevitably bit in the ass so heres to hoping i get back in the business quickly

:D nice to see you doing well, recovered quick from 1 or 2 bad days, great stuff.

Bumsex

All bets have now been edited and placed,
very surprised with the way the nuggets game has gone,there down 12 at half time,hopefully they can pick it up now after the break..
theres a 7.5 difference in the spread now so i suppose its good that way.
a lot staked but hopefully i can get 1 or 2 winners..:p

Kod-box

Surprised you went with Nuggets the way they are playing, early days yet but they have been terrible for the last few games with transfer rumours rife in the squad, Hornets are scoring better than they have all season so far aswell though so it is a strange game, good luck.

Bumsex

NBA Matches
New Orleans Hornets At Denver Nuggets
2011-01-10 02:05:00
Handicap Betting
Denver Nuggets (+12.5) NAP

200

going in again but this time not as bi,there is no way they will lose this match with the handicap but the way things are going you never know,hence the smaller than ususal stake for a nap bet,difference of 17 from the -5 sp spread which was recommended..:eek:

Kod-box

No way they will lose this match, do you know someting i dont?

:pac:

Bumsex

Kod-box wrote: »

No way they will lose this match, do you know someting i dont?

:pac:

god your some man..
your in there like a vulture again bang on time,give me a chance to edit the bleady post will ya..

you said you were going to refrain from posting here after our last encounter but obviously you cant resist having a go...
and of course if nuggets were winning well you would keep your mouth shut about the bet..:rolleyes:

JONJO THE MISER

Im rooting for ya buddy, think they will win now.

Kod-box

Like a vulture...good man, how was i to know you ****ed up another post.

I never said i'd refrain from commenting on this log?

what are you talking about?

JONJO THE MISER

Aww come on guys no need for this, i thought we were all friends around here.

Bumsex

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Aww come on guys no need for this, i thought we were all friends around here.

dont worry john jo i aint replying, dont want to clog up my tread,i hate it...

Kod-box

Indeed Jonjo i reckon 'Bumsex' is suffereing from a lack of sleep or something.

x PyRo

Pipe down lads, I'm trying to sleep.

Best of luck with the bets B.