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2010 Morgan Kelly Article- Ireland is finished

MrMatisse

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html

Seems like its game over for Ireland

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Millicent

PanchoVilla wrote: »

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

You're joking, right? What the hell else would you have him do? Spend his early twenties sitting on the dole, miserable and unable to use his education? The country is f.ucked and young graduates haven't a whole lot of options here.

And of course people like him will be missed--if Ireland wants to be valued for its education levels and its innovativeness in the job market, it needs graduates. Unfortunately, some people haven't the luxury of waiting around for things to get better. Get off your high horse.

COYW

benjamin d wrote: »

The perception growing among borrowers is that while they played by the rules, the banks certainly did not, cynically persuading them into mortgages that they had no hope of affording. Facing a choice between obligations to the banks and to their families – mortgage or food – growing numbers are choosing the latter.

I thoroughly agree with the article with the exception of the segment above, which is grade A BS, typical poor old paddy the irishman rubbish. For all their failings and there were countless, I never heard of a bank harrassing any member of the public into taking up a mortgage with them. I do know of countless people who were creative, to put it kindly, with their mortgage applications and they borrowed ridiculous sums of money to buy their houses and also took a little extra to buy 2 new cars and 3 or 4 foreign holidays for the next 3 years, as part of their mortgage. Having a huge mortgage, flash car etc was a signal of status in this country for many years. I worked with girls in their early 20s who would only shop in London or New York for clothes because Dublin was beneath them.

Irish people have this complex where someone else is always to blame for their problems. People need to accept that they too acted irresponsibly and borrowed too much. The level of personal debt in this country is disgraceful. I have a friend in his early 30s, who lives at home with his parents, pays no rent, yet he has credit card debt of €15K+.

Personally, I really hope that the government have the balls to call in the IMF early next year. This country needs to be knocked to the ground socially and economically and totally rebuilt.

Chairman Meow

McNulty737 wrote: »

An article that long without mention of the biggest elephant in the room ie. public sector pay and pensions? So much for balanced journalism.

Ah, that would explain it then. I wonder how much his salary and pension compares to his counterparts in the UK/Europe.

Ah yes, that old whipping boy, the public sector pay. sure they all earn 80K PA and have pensions that guarantee them a life of luxury once they retire at 55.
Youre an actual cretin if you think this. an actual, real life cretin. The government used public sector as a whipping boy to be turned into some kind of pariah to take the heat off themselves. "ohh the public sector earn too much, theyre all lazy & overpaid". The only people i know who work in the public sector have taken so many wage cuts an pension 'levys' that theyd be almost as well off on the dole. Cop the **** on.

COYW

McNulty737 wrote: »

An article that long without mention of the biggest elephant in the room ie. public sector pay and pensions? So much for balanced journalism.

What's the point? They are untouchable. The middle class private sector worker will bare the brunt of most of the upcoming cuts. The public sector will take a token cut and strike and whinge over that for a few weeks. My other half is a public sector worker and she was stunned at the thought that I have been asked to take another 15% salary cut. That is the 2nd one in 2.5 years. She was attacked in work last week by a union rep when she stated that she felt that they were very lucky people in comparision to private sector workers at this moment in time.

Mits

The general public are powerless in this circumstance. If you want to live in this country and are lucky enough to have a job, you will be living in a high tax economy.

I have four children and I believe I am educating them to emigrate. I am lucky that they are all bright and hopefully will have a better life somewhere else. My wife works in admin in a hospital, and her job is the only guaranteed income we have. I am self employed and my business is almost gone. My pension is worth a fraction of what I have invested.

Yet the politicians and bankers that were in power during the crisis are still there. I don’t know the solution but I think the people who caused it should be punished and made to pay what they can in restitution.

Does the country need to cut its cloth to what it can afford regardless of the human cost?

Wibbs

Millicent wrote: »

You're joking, right? What the hell else would you have him do? Spend his early twenties sitting on the dole, miserable and unable to use his education? The country is f.ucked and young graduates haven't a whole lot of options here.

Yep. I'd say if I was 20 again coming out of college with a useful qualification I would probably be leaving. I'd be damned sad to go and I would try to stay, like I did in the 80's, but IMHO and from experience of the two "recessions" this one is quite different.

The 80's(and previous) downturns could be compared to someone who was pretty broke in a low paid job, but getting by, putting a few quid in the credit union, while buying a car on higher purchase. If they lost their job, the car may be gone, but there would be a little nest egg that might tide them over. This one is more like someone who was pretty broke, being mistakenly given a credit card with a big limit and going mad on it, while the bank didn't notice. The lifestyle went up accordingly, but with no real funds to cover it. Then the letter from the bank popped through the post and there is no money to meet the principle of the bill. Best they can hope for is to pay of a little bit every month for the rest of their lives.

Now even in a full on headlong plummeting downturn there will always be opportunities for those who seek them out. Even if we had 50% on the dole, the other 50% would still be working and would need "stuff". So that part gives me hope. Of our infrastructure, the future of our political system and our sovereignty? I'm a lot less hopeful.

[Deleted User]

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Ah yes, that old whipping boy, the public sector pay. sure they all earn 80K PA and have pensions that guarantee them a life of luxury once they retire at 55.
Youre an actual cretin if you think this. an actual, real life cretin. The government used public sector as a whipping boy to be turned into some kind of pariah to take the heat off themselves. "ohh the public sector earn too much, theyre all lazy & overpaid". The only people i know who work in the public sector have taken so many wage cuts an pension 'levys' that theyd be almost as well off on the dole. Cop the **** on.

No, but there are lots of them on 25/30K a year doing work that would command a salary of 18K in the private sector at the moment, why don't we do some benchmarking now ??

[Deleted User]

Wibbs wrote: »

there will always be opportunities for those who seek them out. .

+1, and they will pay sh1t loads of taxed but they'll still drive on. They may even make a few quid and create a job or two.

Wibbs

COYW wrote: »

What's the point? They are untouchable. The middle class private sector worker will bare the brunt of most of the upcoming cuts. The public sector will take a token cut and strike and whinge over that for a few weeks. My other half is a public sector worker and she was stunned at the thought that I have been asked to take another 15% salary cut. That is the 2nd one in 2.5 years. She was attacked in work last week by a union rep when she stated that she felt that they were very lucky people in comparision to private sector workers at this moment in time.

I have little truck with those who lump together all PS workers into one group. They can vary a lot. I know a fair few whose wages are crap. I also know a fair few whose wages are very high and their sense of entitlement beggars belief(and they're incredibly wasteful of time and resources). The joke is those types wont be badly hit in the PS. As per usual it'll be the low mid and low waged PS workers that will get it squarely in the neck. Just like the PAYE worker does. The latter should realise this. A goodly proportion of your PS cousins are just as much in the shít as you are.

What does need to be done with the PS is it needs to be viciously gutted and massively streamlined. It is not good value for money in so many sectors. Massively bloated in fact. Now, this has to be done from the top down. Not as is usually the case by hitting those at the low/mid end. Though with the cronyism going on how likely is all that and how much more likely is it that the average working joe and josephine PS worker will get hit first. Remove all quangos. And I mean all. Look again at value for money in all these depts. If they're not of extremely high "cultural value" then they should be turning a profit. In the sense of an actual profit god forbid or at least a decent service for the cost. When the foynes flying boat museum is getting a couple a hundred grand for a hologram about how Irish coffee was invented someone needs their bloody head read. How many incubators would that buy, or vaccinations etc. Secondly lets lose the overseas aid money(in the hundreds of millions annually). We simply can't afford to be giving away money, borrowed money in that way. Not unless again it's profitable. If we do give money to a country then we should get some of their resources in lieu of that. Get rid of things like the Irish translation services for EU documents and the like. Again that costs us millions for stuff fcuk all read. Keep the money aimed at Irish speaking areas. That's not at issue, but spend it more wisely.

Chairman Meow

RoverJames wrote: »

No, but there are lots of them on 25/30K a year doing work that would command a salary of 18K in the private sector at the moment, why don't we do some benchmarking now ??

Oh ****!! 25-30 grand a year!? The absolute BASTARDS! Tax the **** out of them! How dare they live high on the hog in their ivory towers, lording it over the rest of us with such extortionate wages. Tax them into the ****ing stone age!!

COYW

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Oh ****!! 25-30 grand a year!? The absolute BASTARDS! Tax the **** out of them! How dare they live high on the hog in their ivory towers, lording it over the rest of us with such extortionate wages. Tax them into the ****ing stone age!!

This is the problem with the public sector for me. €30K as a sum of money is a poor salary for any professional, I totally accept that. Hell, that is probably even less than than the dole for most BUT the public sector has vast sums of money pumped into it and we, the public, are not getting value for money. If an admin job in the private sector pays €18-€20K, then, in my mind, it is totally illogical and wasteful to pay €25K-€30K for that same job in the private sector. It just doesnt make business sense. All those €7K-€12K differences add up in the end.

I totally agree with Wibbs when he says that the public sector needs to be totally gutted. It needs to be run like a proper business. Also, im sure that there are people in the public sector who work very hard.

[Deleted User]

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Oh ****!! 25-30 grand a year!? The absolute BASTARDS! Tax the **** out of them! How dare they live high on the hog in their ivory towers, lording it over the rest of us with such extortionate wages. Tax them into the ****ing stone age!!

they wouldn't have the skills or experience to get that salary in the private sector, if it wasn't for benchmarking they wouldn't be on it now so why should they get €8 to €13K more per annum than someone doing the same in the private sector. That was their logic when times were good so why does it not work now ? Ah yes, it doesn't suit them

someday2010

The next two years will be the 21st century equivalent of the potato famine in this country.

jackiebaron

PanchoVilla wrote: »

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

Why should he stay? His blood is his own and he doesn't owe the country or YOU a damn thing. You're probably the kind of person who lambastes people on the dole as scroungers yet fiddle your taxes and get black money nixers done on your gaff. Get a grip.

Noel 006

benjamin d wrote: »

What do you mean by expendable? i.e what is the absolute worst case scenario for the country? Not trolling or being argumentative btw, I genuinely want to know!

Benjamin - While I don't claim to be an expert on the scumivity of the IMF, they could do to us what they have been doing to countries ( particularly in Africa ) since their foundation. They bail us out at interest rates they know we can't afford purposely, when we default on them they'll say that's no problem lads, don't worry about at all, sure you can just pay whatever you can afford and we'll take your fishing quotas in lieu of the rest, throw in your oul gas fields there as well, it's still a bit short so we'll have a bit of foresty there too! sound, that'll cover this year no problem, we can chat about next year in a few months, we'll be kind of busy ballsing up a few more African countries in the mean time!
I never thought this could happen to us but after what has gone on here over the last couple of years nothing would surprise me! Bascially it means that the vast majority of any tax we pay will go to pay off the debts we have accumulated with a few scraps left over for public services!

Dubh Geannain

Deleted User wrote: »

We're not communist! But such debt levels will leave us impoverished indefinately. It would have been cheaper to have let the banks fail and deal with the shítstorn two years ago.

Might as well be when you socialise private losses like the squanderers in Merrion Street did with the banks.

Privatise profits to the select few.
Socialise losses to the many.

Dravokivich

Mister men wrote: »

The shocking thing to me is that people are still shocked by articles like this. Irish people are like lemmings. God help us if we ever have a real protest in this country given the uproar over a tin of paint poured on some overweight minister.

That's my main concern about politics in Ireland in general, which is going to be swayed by this whole mess, as it has been done before.

There's no clear agenda that I can see as a layman in this country, it's all just re-actions and pointing fingers. As mentioned many times before, everyone is pointing fingers at Fianna Fail. after a while, when whoever comes in with the next set of elections, and they don't get us fixed up, Fianna Fail will be pointing the fingers at them. As it's been done here before and currently going in the United States with Obama.

When the mess gets cleaned up, it'll be business as usual again...

Chairman Meow

RoverJames wrote: »

they wouldn't have the skills or experience to get that salary in the private sector, if it wasn't for benchmarking they wouldn't be on it now so why should they get €8 to €13K more per annum than someone doing the same in the private sector. That was their logic when times were good so why does it not work now ? Ah yes, it doesn't suit them

Ah yes, i forgot that everyone who starts in the public sector automatically starts on 25-30 grand. Aside from all the people i know who started on 20K or thereabouts. Except for those guys. Its taken about 8 years for my mate to get to 32K in his position, started on about 20 odd, so youre saying after 8 years work your average worker should be knocked back to 18K just cause someone who does a similar job in the private sector makes that much? Jesus christ some of you are so out of touch with reality is scary.

Amhran Nua

With the greatest respect to Morgan Kelly, who is a superb economist, people need to remember that he is just an economist. He has no real understanding of the complex issues around sovereignty and national identity.

The short version is, Ireland is a lot more than a bank balance.

Yes, its a godawful mess. Yes there is a way out of it. No, there is no easy way out of it. No, we don't hold collective responsibility for the problems, I still remember photos of thousands of Americans holding up signs apologising to the rest of the world for the re-election of Bush. We aren't the only country that has been badly misrepresented by its politicians.

Above all else, remember this - The Republic of Ireland is a nation, not a company.

So lets knuckle down and get to fixing the problems, and leave the weeping and gnashing of teeth to the press and other professional hysterics.

[Deleted User]

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Except for those guys. Its taken about 8 years for my mate to get to 32K in his position, started on about 20 odd, so youre saying after 8 years work your average worker should be knocked back to 18K just cause someone who does a similar job in the private sector makes that much? Jesus christ some of you are so out of touch with reality is scary.

What has he done to justify going from 20K to 32K ? What job does he do ? Anyone on 32K a year purely because they have 8 years service doing a job that can be done by most of the folks on the scratch is being paid 12K too much in my view. Folks who reckon that paying admin staff etc 32K/annum in the public sector is an appropriate use of the cash the country is borrowing are out of touch with reality in my view. Combine that with the fact that many of these PS departments are grossly overstaffed and deliver close to sweet f all and it's terrifying. Don't you remember that the public sector folk wanted pay rises because the private sector was booming ? Forgot that I suppose :rolleyes:

mike65

Amhran Nua wrote: »

So lets knuckle down and get to fixing the problems, and leave the weeping and gnashing of teeth to the press and other professional hysterics.

You know Brian Cowen could have said that?

Liam Byrne

Merzbow wrote: »

Hindsight is always 20-20

Interesting how you're presuming that the only reason for looking at things differently to FF is "hindsight".

Newsflash : you're wrong.

Liam Byrne

COYW wrote: »

I thoroughly agree with the article with the exception of the segment above, which is grade A BS, typical poor old paddy the irishman rubbish.

Why is it rubbish ?

Those who borrowed sensibly have been given an ADDED bill of €22K each and rising by FF.

THAT is the objection; not those who borrowed (their choice) but those who borrowed sensibly and have been ADDITIONALLY burdened on the whim of FF.

If FF hadn't spread the virus then everyone would have been paying off THEIR OWN AGREED DEBTS, which would be fair.

Saila

benjamin d wrote: »

We're screwed. How can the banks have been allowed to get away with what they did?:mad:

because they are like diplomats in a foreign country, you cant touch them
because if the banks fail the country goes down the... oh no wait

Andy-Pandy

I'm still having a good time, and i'll continue too.

Augmerson

Andy-Pandy wrote: »

I'm still having a good time, and i'll continue too.

Enjoy it while it lasts my friend.

marglin

this is probably the most depressing article on this mess iv read in a while. Where will this all end? will it ever? im booking my ticket now for when i graduate and i know alot more of my peers are too. I actually do appreciate that we got a good education for substantially less than in other places(notably the uk and the us) but what was the point if all of it was simply to brand us for export?

The country is f**ked, I know it's all numbers in the sky and bond yields in the papers but on the ground people are dying because of cutbacks, we're selling the next generation so short it's appalling and through all the sickening madness those FF scum(that is the nicest word I could think of) along with their mates in the upper echelons of the banks are muttering sweet nothings on how we have to all 'share the pain' while they vote for bigger salaries for themselves.

There's been alot of public vs private bs going on in this thread, c'mon people its the oldest trick in the book, divide and bonk her, yes the ps wage bill needs to be scaled back and yes there is alot of waste but the vast majority of the ps provide crucial frontline services that keep us for the most part, safe, smart and healthy.

Our only hope would be to declare a new republic comprising of the current territory minus merrion sq, kildare st, and certain parts of stephens green, baggot st and ballsbridge. Let them clean the mess they made and let the rest of us get on with our lives, our debt-ridden high-tax low-prospect lives.

Mister men

You know the funny thing is that some out there would have you believe everything is okay and a bit of positive thinking will get us out of this mess.:pac:

JupiterKid

I started a thread here on this article by Morgan Kelly before I noticed this one.

People may say Professor Kelly is a doom monger but he was on the ball in predicting the extent of our house price crash back in 2006 just as the bubble was peaking. He has, in fact, been correct in all his predictions to date.

I would take his speculation of the political fallout of this crisis with a pinch of salt, but I wouldn't be surprised if this also comes to pass.

Ireland is facing a decade of despair.

Son Of A Vidic

What I can't understand, is why haven't the people who are in trouble with their mortages formed some sort of national group? As the article rightly pointed out, you can't evict or imprison 200,000 people who default.The banks can be beaten and made listen, so will ye get of yer holes and beat them ffs!