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Winter 2010-2011 outlook

WolfeIRE

I could not find a thread dealing specifically with the coming winter.

Forgive me for mentioning the 'W' word in ther height of summer but i know many here are interested in the season, especially following on from the winter just gone.

A warmer Arctic climate is influencing the air pressure at the North Pole and shifting wind patterns on our planet. We can expect more cold and snowy winters in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America. "Cold and snowy winters will be the rule, rather than the exception," says Dr. James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in the United States
STORY IN FULL

I know that others have made references to the coming winter but it would be great to share your thoughts on this thread.

By the way, this is an interesting site for comparing sea ice cover to previous years.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=09&fy=1990&sm=06&sd=09&sy=2010

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dillo2k10

Kippure wrote: »

There will be alot of snow this winter, I predict a few heavy snow falls, with high pressure stirring down cold Artic air, the snow will just freeze and freeze night by night day by day. It will be very icey.

Love the snow, but hate the ice that comes with it. Learning to drive this winter, so that wont work well

Wild Bill

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=532

Last October average temps were 0.5C above normal, currently running at 2.5C above. Is this in the models?!

thetonynator

Wild Bill wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=532

Last October average temps were 0.5C above normal, currently running at 2.5C above. Is this in the models?!

Imagine the winter temps were 5 times lower than last year, with october being 5 times higher than last year!!! . . that would put january at about -10 average . . .:P

nacho libre

there does seem to a broad consensus over on netweather that there will be cold periods during this winter- just not as severe and sustained as last winter. well, as the old farmer, interviewed on tv last Christmas, knew last Winter was a once in fifty year event. he didn't need to have knowledge about qbo's, solar activity, pdo's, amo', nao's, to know that!

Redsunset

well for those of us that do love our Teleconnections,

You might find these interesting.:D

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Prominent patterns over the North Atlantic [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), exists in all months [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]East Atlantic Pattern (EA), exists in all months [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,arial]Prominent patterns over Eurasia[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern (EATL/WRUS), exists in all months[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Scandinavia pattern (SCAND), exists in all months[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Polar/Eurasia pattern , exists in all months[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,arial]Prominent patterns over North Pacific/North America [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]West Pacific pattern (WP), exists in all months [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]East Pacific - North Pacific pattern (EP-NP), exists in all months[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Pacific/North American pattern (PNA), exists in all months[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern (TNH), during December-February [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Pacific Transition pattern (PT),exists during August-September [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,arial]Note that the East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern and the Scandinavia pattern are referred to by Barnston and Livezey (1987) as the Eurasia-2 and Eurasia-1 patterns, respectively.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,arial]Other Links: [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,arial]Historical Archive of all Indices: Monthly Tabulated Indicesfor all teleconnection pattern amplitudes dating back to 1950. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,arial]Monthly Tabulated Indices: Last 12 months of indices for selected teleconnection patterns, as appears in the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,arial]Monthly Plotted Time Series: Time series of pattern amplitudes for the last few years for selected teleconnection patterns, from the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.[/FONT]

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh

Here they are all through the years since 1950,same as pink archive one above.
Scrolling down to the great winter of 62/63 we see how they all played their part in creating it so maybe something to watch out for again.

darkman2

The signs are good atm. One thing to note and although it's quite simple it's actually very important.

Last Winter was best characterised as being icy throughout the country. This is because soil and ground temperatures were very low by the time December entered mid month. This was helped by some Northerly incursions in the run up to winter but also by the presence of high pressure which allowed temperatures to get very low at night through November.

For a repeat id be looking for a similar pattern at this time of year. The odd Northerly incursion followed by the establishment of high pressure over the country - and this is in fact what looks like occuring for the rest of October. Initially it looks like being on the mild side but gradually with a more continental flow after mid month and high pressure looking like sticking around we will begin to see the return of colder, frosty nights. Also with night time temperatures getting lower daytime temperatures won't be able to respond as they have been doing up to now. This is basically the last of the high teen days for temperature so to speak.

There is absolutely no credible method of forecasting for this Winter at this stage. But of those barometers a majority appear to favour a Winter somewhat similar to last year. The overall synoptic situation globally is quite benign esspecially around the tropical latitudes. With new evidence of further Northerly blocking (pressure rises at higher latitudes) and those stratospheric temperatures remain stubornly ahead of the average it is not unlikely to not see a sudden warming event at some stage during the Winter. But the science behind this is still sparse - it takes many weeks for the effects to propagate down to lower altitudes in terms of pressure deviations and thus effect us directly. So IMO the effect last Winter is probrably over rated.

But basically IMO we are on the right track broadly speaking with some caveats towards a colder then average Winter. The slippery slope really begins toward the end of this week with the first night time frosts.

derekon

Folks, this question is slightly related to the upcoming winter.

Does anyone know how the 850h PA Temperature maps work? For example what temperature does it have to be at 850hPA for it to be zero at ground level ?

Really I am asking the question , if the temp at 850 is "x" , then what is y? (ie temp at ground level)?

Thks

Derek

Danno

Can vary a little bit, but usually 10c, and can be up to 15c in Summer. Thats why we look for the -8c value or lower (-9c, -10c...) to be over us for snow - thats in a straight forward uniform environment.

However, in high pressure situations, it can be 5c at 850hPa and -5c on the ground... this is an inversion.

In late spring it can be 0c at 850hPa and +15c or slightly higher on the ground... introduce a low pressure to this setup and boom go the thunderstorms!

Su Campu

One method of manually forecasting the daily high temperature is to take the temperature at around 150hPa above the surface (so roughly 850hPa) from a morning sounding, and take it dry adiabatically to the surface. This should give an estimation of the high temperature tha can be expected that afternoon, provided that there is little cloud and moderate winds, and there are no fronts around.

So taking a typical sounding chart, and following the 0°C dry adiabat from 1000 to 850hPa, we get a temperature of around -12°C.

derekon

Thanks for the clarification folks!

Derek

WolfeIRE

JOE B post. Interesting line in bold

MONDAY 5 P.M. LONDON TIME THE AUGUST HEAT WAVE TELEGRAPHS WHERE WINTER'S WORST MAY BE!
The summer of 2003 came off the El Nino of 2002-2003, and a monster heat wave developed in August over France. That was followed by a major cold October. The same thing is happening, farther east this month! The August heat wave is being followed by major chill in the areas that had the heat (amazing no news stories on that, eh), and I think is telegraphing where the core of the coldest part of the winter will be. A heads-up, I will doing a free site video on this tomorrow as we prepare for the issuance of my winter forecast for Europe, but I will show this relationship. If it is not on the front page of accuweather.com, it will be on the vblog bastardi.
Let's see how long it takes for others to pick up on this relationship and make note of it. I have cast the bait out.
(the key, btw, is the reverse of the El Nino to either neutral, or as we see this year, the raging LA Nina.)
Ciao for now.

maquiladora

So Joe thinks Russia will be seeing a very cold winter then?

Kippure

maquiladora wrote: »

So Joe thinks Russia will be seeing a very cold winter then?

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Link works, just alot of people watching joe,s video....

WolfeIRE

accuweather site is struggling with traffic to the site hence the error message in the link. just keep trying and you will get on. a lot of peeps obviously interested in Joe's video.

edit:
have looked at vid. it's interesting but could of course by coincidental.

Iancar29

Got an email back from the NRA ( FINALLY ) about my question about current grit and salt stocks around the country.
This is what they said....

"Dear Ian,

Further to your recent email to the Road Safety Authority, I wish to advise that a procurement process is underway by the Authority to secure de-icing salt on behalf of the local authorities for the coming winter period.

Regards,
Annamarie McNally
Programme Administrator""

A very short answer may i add, nothing about the supposely overstocks that we ordered in late after the cold snap in January ,

but ye, i dont think theyll hav enough if we get a similar cold snap this winter.

Kippure

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsvEW0StFIM&feature=related

Nice read. Easy to understand for a newbie.

http://actualeurope.info/science/video.76sS7bqw9Z8.media
Easier to read then youtube

Tabnabs

Right, never mind accuweather or met.ie as usual yr.no is where it's happening.

They have a story entitled 'Winter Begins Now'

Whilst they discuss various scientific methods of what the long range forecast will be, October 14th is the traditional start of winter in Norway and according to the old calendar sticks (primstav) if the 14th is a nice bright sunny day, then the snow is a long way off and if it's a cold there will be a lot of snow this winter.

Hey, it's as good a model as any

Also waiting on the Norwegian Meteorological Institute to give their long range temperature forecast for Nov-Jan for Europe which should be out any day now and will post up the graphic.

Iancar29

Su Campu wrote: »

One method of manually forecasting the daily high temperature is to take the temperature at around 150hPa above the surface (so roughly 850hPa) from a morning sounding, and take it dry adiabatically to the surface. This should give an estimation of the high temperature tha can be expected that afternoon, provided that there is little cloud and moderate winds, and there are no fronts around.

So taking a typical sounding chart, and following the 0°C dry adiabat from 1000 to 850hPa, we get a temperature of around -12°C.

Nicely explained Su , thanks

Agent_47

Don't know if this has been posted elsewhere but winter snow expected early in the UK.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8061737/Snow-to-hit-Britain.html

Any idea how we are fixed to get some!

Kenring

Next week temperatures should drop across Ireland into subzeroes, because the moon is at northern declination. However I do not think the low temperatures will last, but return in the last week of November.

I expect a totally different winter this year to last year. I think it will be a totally different season. All those who think that last year was not freakish but the start of a new trend may have a pleasant surprise awaiting them.

There will be cold, but I think a large proportion of winter should remain dry.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Deep Easterly

Kenring wrote: »

I think a large proportion of winter should remain dry.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Ken, do you envisage any storms for Ireland this coming winter? Or have they now become a thing of the past?

WolfeIRE

It's amazing where boards.ie quotes turn up nowadays

http://www.clareherald.com/news/3365-indian-summer-to-be-replaced-by-early-winter-chill.html

nacho libre

Kenring wrote: »

Next week temperatures should drop across Ireland into subzeroes, because the moon is at northern declination. However I do not think the low temperatures will last, but return in the last week of November.

I expect a totally different winter this year to last year. I think it will be a totally different season. All those who think that last year was not freakish but the start of a new trend may have a pleasant surprise awaiting them.

There will be cold, but I think a large proportion of winter should remain dry.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Ken you're killing my buzz:(

So it's 2-2 so far. it'll be interesting to see what the Netweather winter forecast is

Kenring

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ken, do you envisage any storms for Ireland this coming winter? Or have they now become a thing of the past? :(

Depends how you define a storm.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

Ken you're killing my buzz:(

And mine

Not really relishing the thought of a dry, mild & pointless winter ahead after the chronic lack of any interesting weather over the last year.

Depends on how you define a storm

A storm means violent weather, usually with wind either as part of a squall or from a major Atlantic storm system.

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

Ken you're killing my buzz:(

So it's 2-2 so far. it'll be interesting to see what the Netweather winter forecast is

Yep! It will be interesting indeed to compare Joe B's European forecast on the 20th with Netweather's pronouncement later this month. Regardless, I'm sure I'll spend this winter like all others - waiting & watching for snow

WolfeIRE

a battle between atlantic and easterly to north easterly weather patterns by the end of next week.

a downgrade on colder temps in latest gfs. how unusual!!:rolleyes:

Su Campu

The GFS has a habit of overdoing these northerly outbreaks, so it's not surprising at all. It's a pity, cos it's the model that's quoted the most by everyone, and it has the most widely available set of parameters to chose from, compared to say the ECMWF.

I think we should make a pact right here and now that this winter, we will not post up GFS charts progging -10°C 850s, unless it's withing +72hrs!!! If we do that then we won't get the repeated heartbreak when the time comes and it doesn't deliver on its promise.

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

a battle between atlantic and easterly to north easterly weather patterns by the end of next week.

a downgrade on colder temps in latest gfs. how unusual!!:rolleyes:

yep not surprising at all. we know from our time here that the gfs always does this, only to backtrack and follow the ecm evolution.

what will be interesting is if the weather pattern you outline is the way it will be for the winter. if so we could get some heavy frontal snow at times if ireland was to be the continual battle ground. of course that's a big if.

maquiladora

The ups and downs of the GFS are all part of the fun.