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Next Generation Consoles?

Elessar

Has there been any word or rumors about the next generation of games consoles from Microsoft or Sony?

2012 seems like the time for a new Xbox, at least it'll be old enough then and a new one should be on the cards. I'm not sure about the PS4, but I have read that it won't be a radical departure from the Cell processor as the R&D is simply too expensive. More likely an updated form of the processor with more SPEs (and a newer graphics chip obviously). With the huge jump in popularity of casual games thanks to the Wii will we even see Sony and MS battling to outdo each other in terms of console power? Will they instead pander to the "Wii fit" masses?

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BlitzKrieg

On the next generation

I dont think it will be a hardware leap as is usually expected. Nintendo made that very clear early in this generation and the decline in the promiance of first party exclusives to the other two consoles I would argue that perhaps at long last sony has remembered that a key part of the playstation's original success was that compared to its competitors it was flexable and easy to work with (the Saturn being a nightmare to develop on and the N64 being limited due to its use of cartidges).

I really think the next generation will not be as much of a leap forward in pure hardware but more of a redesign.

-HD is here but it does not have market saturation (what was the last figure on HD tvs penetration in the US?)

-3D is somewhat a strained issue and it will be the success of the 3DS and Sony's 3D enhancements of the PS3 and 3d tv that will decide that. The 3DS alone wont because its such a radical shift from what the rest of the 3D industry is currently doing (simply 3D on the go vs 3D at home. glassess vs no glassess etc). Personnally I'd side with nintendo, 3D in the cinema and at home tends to p*ss me off, while the notion of it as a little enhancement for quick on the go handheld games sort of works with me, also combining it with the touch element of the DS makes sense and is less gimicky while 3D with film still doesnt actually make full sense to me.

LookingFor

emmetmcl wrote: »

But PS3 originally said the PS3 would be around for 10 years before an updated console is released

They didn't. They just said the PS3 would have a ten year lifespan. In the same way PS1 did or PS2 has had. It won't impact the timing of the next system though.

IMO, 2012/2013 seems a likely timeframe. More 2012 if the motion control platforms fizzle off, and honestly, I don't see them credibly driving the systems' userbases for more than a couple of years. Nintendo could jump a bit sooner depending on how this holiday goes for Wii, IMO.

Retr0gamer

Actually Nintendo have always made their consoles from cheap parts. They've never made a console that was a lose leader, always brought it out and turned a profit on hardware from day one. Yokoi Gunpeis philosophy on system design was 'lateral thinking of withered technology' which means using old technology but using it in new and creative ways. It's a philosophy that Apple employs, their iphone and ipod tech is never top of the line. The DS was a reactionary product but it implied Gunpie Yokoi's original philosophy that he used to make the Gameboy a success. The DS was designed not to fail no matter how bad the sales were but it became a run away success which surprised even nintendo thanks ot excellent sofware support (which took a while to get going admittedly) and tapping the casual market with Nintendogs.

I also doubt the 3DS is testing any marketing viability. I'd be surprised if it's not the fastest selling console ever on release.

NeoKubrick

The release of the original Nintendo DS is an interesting case study of how Nintendo have used the handheld market to test trends for use in the console market. Nintendo DS was a reaction to the announcement of the Sony PSP. In fact, Nintendo were clearly saying before its launch that the DS wasn't the true successor to the Gameboy Advance and that the successor would be released a year or two after. Its graphical power was inferior to the PSP, but it had a unique touch-screen interface and was priced relatively cheap compared to the PSP.

Nintendo DS was a tremendous success and Nintendo applied the same strategy (modest graphics, affordable price, unique interface) in the console market, too. Sony applied the same strategy of their PSP's, too, however successful it was: high-end graphics, high price and new disc-format.

So, it wouldn't be far off the mark to suggest that the 3DS is Nintendo testing the viability of 3D gaming for the console market too, and if it's successful, as Blitz stated, we could see the next console from Nintendo in 2012 championing true 3D gaming, which seems like the new Americas land to conquer for the industry.

Retr0gamer

I feel MS are letting the ball drop badly though. Kinect with it's rape-athon price point I can see as being a flop while Sony packaging the Move with the PS3 means it will eventually be taken up like the dual shock. They've also lost a load of exclusive games while sony have pulled ahead in this regard and with the Ps3 slim launch Sony have finely got the casual market buying the PS3.

NTMK

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

and its the final one. I think the real wildcard is microsoft, if nintendo move into a new generation nobody will feel obliged to compete, its pretty much a market line that the wii and 360/ps3 are mostly different markets that only cross at some points.

but if microsoft made a big push for a new generation, I think it would force sony's hand. Honestly I know quite alot of people disagree with me, but the ps3 launch and the run up to it shows alot of that happening, events in the industry (the wii, xbox live's growing popularity and arcade etc) really pushed sony's reactionary buttons and things like free supported online play, the sixaxis etc were rolled out, some of it prematurely (sixaxis). If microsoft rolled hard for a new generation of hardware Sony will respond with an announcement within the year.

I dont think MS need enter very early with there next gen like they with 360 because they did a very good job getting themselves into a playstation dominated market so they can afford to wait. they wont rush the console design after what happened but its all this is a few years away

BlitzKrieg

I cant speak for microsoft or sony.

But nintendo have always timed their handheld and consoles to within 2 years of each other (ds: 2004, Wii: 2006. GBA: 2001 GC: 2001 N64: 1996 Virtual Boy: 1995 Game Boy: 1989 Super Nintendo: 1990)

With the 3DS announced and rumoured for an end of year release by the end of this year I would put a nintendo console by christmas 2012 at the latest. It was whispered that a Wii HD was going to be an interstep between wii and wii2. But I think if kinect and move did anything they took the wind out of that idea and nintend scrapped it in favour of future development.

On Sony its a mix bag. They generally went for wide spreads with the ps2 peaking at just under nine years (consider the average is assumed to be 5)

but the ps3 is hitting a year under its average (the shift from classic to slim was done after 4 years on ps2, its 3 on ps3 and a stonking six years on the original playstation)

and handheld hype tends to preceed generation hype, so if sony does confirm a new psp2 they may be gearing up for a new generation.

but Sony are the only electronics company still in the industry and they have used both the ps2 and ps3 as format pushers and have confirmed their next big sales push (3D!!! *bah*) is ps3 compatible so I dont feel they have something to push with a ps4.

So weighing this and that up my gut says a ps3 will do a psp and we wont see a new generation but instead a number of more radical redesigns of the current ps3 architecture. They've been stung this generation after two dream generations but the investment sony has put in and the eggs in this basket tell me the ps3 will slog on for at least 2014.

*but*

and its the final one. I think the real wildcard is microsoft, if nintendo move into a new generation nobody will feel obliged to compete, its pretty much a market line that the wii and 360/ps3 are mostly different markets that only cross at some points.

but if microsoft made a big push for a new generation, I think it would force sony's hand. Honestly I know quite alot of people disagree with me, but the ps3 launch and the run up to it shows alot of that happening, events in the industry (the wii, xbox live's growing popularity and arcade etc) really pushed sony's reactionary buttons and things like free supported online play, the sixaxis etc were rolled out, some of it prematurely (sixaxis). If microsoft rolled hard for a new generation of hardware Sony will respond with an announcement within the year.

Fnz

Retr0gamer wrote: »

The next big rumour which is going to be almost defintiely true is that the next PSP will be a Sony Erikson machine to rival the iphone.

I've been waiting for handheld manufacturers to start integrating phone technology into their devices. If true, I hope they make the device more pleasant to use than the PSP.

Also... different divisions, within Sony, working together for the good of the company as a whole - what is this, 'Bizarro World'?

Retr0gamer

Not really. There were rumours that nintendo was working on a 3D handheld a few months before it was announced. Anyway if you look at the specs of the machine it wouldn't be that hard to knock together in a few months. The Sharp 3D screen being used is an off the shelf part that is being used in some of sharps top end phones in japan and the CPU and GPU are top of the range mobile phone parts. It's building a console with off the shelf parts which is what Sony and MS will be doing. Both those companies are going to want to prolong this generation as long as possible after the massive losses they suffered getting it off the ground however the big worry for them is Nintendo who have quite deep pockets launching early with an innovative machine that will have the graphical grunt this time and ruining the party for MS and Sony.

The next big rumour which is going to be almost defintiely true is that the next PSP will be a Sony Erikson machine to rival the iphone.

TGS could actually be interesting this year.

Fnz

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Can't see that happening. If the next generation was 3/4 years away there would be rumors about them by now. The production facilities have to be sourced and fitted, material contracts sought after, developer units sent out to game makers to begin testing/creating games for. Even a codename for the project itself. You can't keep a hat on this stuff.

What about the 3DS? That came up on us relatively quickly.

We'll be coming close to the end of the, suggested, 10-year life span at that point. Without going into too much detail, a 10-year life span implies that the next generation will be released before we get to the end of that period.

If the new range of motion controls under-perform as I suspect they will, I reckon 2014 is a reasonable estimate for the PS3/Xbox 360 successors to release.

Cuddlesworth

Fnz wrote: »

My guess:

Sony/Microsoft will announce the next gen. in 2013, and release in 2014.

Nintendo, I don't know.

Can't see that happening. If the next generation was 3/4 years away there would be rumors about them by now. The production facilities have to be sourced and fitted, material contracts sought after, developer units sent out to game makers to begin testing/creating games for. Even a codename for the project itself. You can't keep a hat on this stuff.

Instead what I am seeing is a complete lack of R&D outside of the pc world and both Sony and Microsoft licking their wounds.

Monotype

Retr0gamer wrote: »

As for Kinetic and Move taking on the Wii, don't make me laugh. It's too little too late and MS and Sony missed the boat on the casual market there.

I suppose I should have rephrased my post on that. My point was that they're both pushing this as major features, and they're not going to announce a new console ten minutes later (with release 6 months down the road) so that people hold off buying them.

Cuddlesworth

Nintendo, maybe soon. They have nothing but profit on the wii and a step up from that is still nowhere close to the other two.

As for Microsoft and Sony. At a guess, not for a long long time. They will need to start making some of the billions spent on these machines back before trying to put out another.

Fnz

My guess:

Sony/Microsoft will announce the next gen. in 2013, and release in 2014.

Nintendo, I don't know.

Retr0gamer

WolfForager wrote: »

Oh get over yourself.

To be honest the consoles are holding PC hardware back and it will probably extend this generation a lot further. It's far too expensive to research new hardware so the next consoles will be made of off the shelf parts, which the Wii, 360 and PS3 basically are other than the PS3's cell. Each consoles video hardware was basically slightly modified video cards that were dated already by PC standards. If PC hardware doesn't start to get more powerful again then the next consoles aren't going to look much better than the current ones.

As for Kinetic and Move taking on the Wii, don't make me laugh. It's too little too late and MS and Sony missed the boat on the casual market there.

Monotype

Although I think the technology is very dated, I don't think we're going to see any announcements for 2 years. Playstation move and kinect are just coming out now soon to steal the wii's glory and I think all companies feel that they can sell a lot more of them. Looking at release dates, they mostly seem to launch late in the year around November in time for Christmas, I presume. So the earliest would be late 2012, I'd say, but probably 2013.
...Unless Nintendo surprise us again and force the market to upgrade. :pac:

WolfForager

seyeM wrote: »

Another few years of the old tech of consoles holding game progress back on the PC.

Oh get over yourself.

seyeM

Another few years of the old tech of consoles holding game progress back on the PC.

K.O.Kiki

I'd rather spend my money on games TBH

NTMK

2013 before the next gen will be anounced i imagine

titan18

Reckon it won't be until 2013 at the earliest.Seems a waste to kill this generation sooner tbh

Retr0gamer

Later hte better. The generations always end way too early. I'm happy with what we have at the moment. Hell, I'm happy with what we had back in 2005. My PS2 still getsmore play than any other console and I'd have been perfectly happy if it was still relevant.

PogMoThoin

Some of us nearly have a next gen console

[Deleted User]

This generation only got into the swing of things around a year ago.

There won't be another console for a good few years, they still have yet to hit profit for each unit sold, this comes over time. There will be a year or two where they're selling them for profit, they'll continue to make money from games sales until then.

I'm sure they're working on them, but financially they don't need to do anything but cut costs and unit costs until they make some real money from the systems. Most still haven't upgraded yet.

obliviousgrudge

Well, for XBOX 360, I'm not sure as I don't really care for XBOX.

But PS3 originally said the PS3 would be around for 10 years before an updated console is released but with a new PSP due sometime in the next year or two I can't see a PS4 until at least 2014.

And as for the casual games, I don't think the PS3/360 will rush to bring out stuff for those although Kinect and Move are being released. The main reason for this thinking is that the sales in these kinds of games are getting smaller.