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Longshot Value, 100 bets

longshotvalue

Might start this tread to keep track of my tips 100 bets see how it goes. Usually post on Letsbet..

Rules are

1 No all weather racing (better to go with the experts here)
2 No Mid Week Irish Racing (cant pick longshots with chance is poor handicaps)
3 Max 2 bets mid week, and 4 Weekend
4 Keep track with Betfair Starting Price, usually longshots price is better nearer the off so ill tend to bet at the odds quoted and again if there odds are better nearer the off..

1 NOAKARAD DE VERZEE 4:10 Hunt, Betfair 18 win 5.3 Place, 1 point win 2 points place. (has run well of this mark , may like the soft rather than heavy last time, has won with this 7lbs claimer on board..)

2 BRING IT ON HOME 4:40 Hunt, Betfair 28 win 5.7 Place, 1 point win 1 point place. ( first time this year over correct trip with decent mark)

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longshotvalue

35 Balthazar King 4:40, Good course form, best jockey, looks a decent mark. Betfair 21 win 5.2 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

33. Dee Ee Williams 2:05, Right trip ground today, and has won over c&d, poor run last time over too far, looks decent mark. Betfair 31win 8.6 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

34. Kennell Hill 2:40, Shot in the dark, has been running well against class horses, possibly without trying

.. Looks overpriced in case he decided to try today. Betfair 110win 18.5 Place

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

Scouser

I had Buena Vista at 16/1, marvelous race!

Ma Yahab got me a few bob placed, deffo a horse to keep an eye on.

best ride of the day for me was Sunnyhillboy. was just off the back marker for most of the race yet he finished in a storming fashion and could well have pipped the winner had the race had a few more furlongs!

longshotvalue

29 Buena Vista 2:05,again good ground horse, second in this last year of the same mark 5th year before... Betfair 23w 5.7 pl

1 Point win 1 point place WON

Superb ride

33 The Midnight Club , 1:30. Great run in chelt last year over hurdles on decent ground, looks overpriced.. Betfair w 23 pl 4.7

1 Point win 1 Point place Placed 3rd

32 Ma Yahab 4:40 Chelt, Very good run on good ground 3 runs ago and 2 decent runs lately, looks overpriced and off a decent mark.. Betfair 29win 4.7 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place Placed 4th

slothrop

If not, great work KKK anyways

smelltheglove

great tipping again aidan in the 2.05 beuna vista routed the lot of them from the front

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

29 Buena Vista 2:05,again good ground horse, second in this last year of the same mark 5th year before... Betfair 23w 5.7 pl

1 Point win 1 point place

Aidan strikes again, got it at 22 on betfair:) went off at 16/1.

jkelly85

Buena Vista get in great stuff

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

33 The Midnight Club , 1:30. Great run in chelt last year over hurdles on decent ground, looks overpriced.. Betfair w 23 pl 4.7

1 Point win 1 Point place

Placed third, finished strongly and came up the hill well but copper bleu got a great 2nd wind!

longshotvalue

33 The Midnight Club , 1:30. Great run in chelt last year over hurdles on decent ground, looks overpriced.. Betfair w 23 pl 4.7

1 Point win 1 Point place

longshotvalue

32 Ma Yahab 4:40 Chelt, Very good run on good ground 3 runs ago and 2 decent runs lately, looks overpriced and off a decent mark.. Betfair 29win 4.7 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

31 The Sawyer, 4:00, form of last race looks really good, jockey get 7lbs off which he didnt get last time, might be hard to pass Betfair 25w 5.1pl

1 Point Win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

28 Deep Purple 2:40, good ground horse, who is one of the highest rated in the race, overpriced poor run last time on suitable ground and bled.. Betfair 26w 7pl.

1Point win 2 Point Place.

29 Buena Vista 2:05,again good ground horse, second in this last year of the same mark 5th year before... Betfair 23w 5.7 pl

1 Point win 1 point place

30 Cape Tribulation 3:20, looks overpriced ran well this year over shorter distances, ran very well against zaynar. Betfair 130w 13.5pl

.5 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

27. Naiad Du Misselot 4:00 Chel, back to course race form and mark, trainer happy with him looks set out for this Betfair 36 win 8.1p

1Point Win 1 Point Place

pizzor

aidan are u tom segal?? lol

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

Excellent tipping. Segal tipped it today as well.

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

Now 38w 6.1pl
.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

day saver...

Aidan I had him backed too thanks to your tip. only a small bit on it but nice surprise as I only noticed now that I had it backed. My mate had €20 e/w on it at 25/1 because he is going out with the jockey's sister!

Cheers for the tips mate, your stats are very impressive so far, have backed a few of you winners! best of luck with the rest of the festival and after.

longshotvalue

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

Now 38w 6.1pl
.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

day saver...

longshotvalue

POINTBREAK wrote: »

FIULIN is a strange one, not as a tip but in the sense that he was always being entered in Group races and never did that well in them. He was trained by Marcus Botti then and is now with Evan Williams and again is being asked a very big question on only his 2nd run over hurdles, even though its a different owner and Trainer........... he must look like a very good horse at home.
Worth keeping an eye on.

Yeah not really a tip either, really hoping Dunguib wins in style, but judging by his last run, he may have something that decent ground and fast pace will help. He did run well last time before petering out in heavy going over 2:4.. His flat rating is one of the best in the race and at a huge price he might give us a run.. Min bet for interest a huge odds..

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

25 FIULIN , 1:30 Chelt, Shot in the dark here, very decent flat horse, whose first and only run over hurdles was eyecatching (even tough he was last) over to far and on poor ground, good ground might help.
.5 Points EW Betfred 200/1
26 Fosters Cross 2:05 Chelt, just looks to big to place, may not be that far behind other contenders to place. Betfair Place 18.5. Looked decent until fall last time at course, has won on decent ground.
.5 points Place

FIULIN is a strange one, not as a tip but in the sense that he was always being entered in Group races and never did that well in them. He was trained by Marcus Botti then and is now with Evan Williams and again is being asked a very big question on only his 2nd run over hurdles, even though its a different owner and Trainer........... he must look like a very good horse at home.
Worth keeping an eye on.

longshotvalue

25 FIULIN , 1:30 Chelt, Shot in the dark here, very decent flat horse, whose first and only run over hurdles was eyecatching (even tough he was last) over to far and on poor ground, good ground might help.
.5 Points EW Betfred 200/1
26 Fosters Cross 2:05 Chelt, just looks to big to place, may not be that far behind other contenders to place. Betfair Place 18.5. Looked decent until fall last time at course, has won on decent ground.
.5 points Place

longshotvalue

24 KICKS FOR FREE , Chel 2:40, looked to be staying on last time and should be better on good ground, has course form, and is on a decent mark. Betfair 37win 6.2pl

1Point win 1Point Place

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

17 Punjabi Cheltenham Champion hurdle.. Betfair 9.8 Win, almost 9/1 about a repeat with the race cutting up as we speak, clearly should be priced lower than Zaynar.. Looks like the Value

2 Points Win

Still value i think at 8.0

winslow

aidankkk wrote: »

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

I noticed you had put in a few names over the past week or so. Would you be able to make a list of the horses you fancy over the festival and share it before the festival starts?

I think a few of your long odds horses, mixed in with some favourites, make a few doubles and trebles, and you never know what might happen.

Stirred, not shaken!

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

Not really a race for big priced winners though, but decent value bets I spose. You like anything else at Cheltenham?

longshotvalue

23. STONEY´S TREASURE Sand 2:00, bottom weight, last run poor, but decent previously.. Seems Overpriced Betfair 18.5 w 4.5 Pl

1 Point win 1 point Place [URL="javascript:void(0)"][/URL]

longshotvalue

22 Pistolet Noir Sand 3:05, Get the allowences here trip should suit and recapturing his win over barizan would make him value Betfair 32win 6.4 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

21 Or Jaune Sand 2:30, Ground Trip Handicap Mark all coming together. Betfair 7.0

1 Point Win

longshotvalue

Story So Far after 20 bets

BSP + 32.63
Advised + 42.5

jkelly85

poor over the last cost it, but great call again so unlucky