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Predictions Thread

nesf

Following Long Onion's suggestion, a predictions thread:

You may predict on as many or as little headings as you'd like and the closest to reality under each heading will get a special mention on this thread. Anyone changing their predictions after the results have been announced will be mocked ruthlessly!

Enjoy!

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Greenmachine

That_Guy wrote: »

It'll be nearly €9 for a box of 20 then. If they raise it any higher the smugglers will be ready as you say.

If they're gonna be charging this then at least re-introduce 10 boxes.

Anyway cigarettes are the least of my worries.

I'm expecting petrol to go up by about 10 cent or so which I really hope it doesn't.

Alcohol to hopefully remain unchanged but it'll most likely go up by about 15 cent.

I'm expecting the minimum age that people can apply for social welfare will be raised to 23 or 24 years of age. If this happens are there gonna be more jobs created for young people?

.
No Increase the price of fags.
It went up okay but by 5c petrol 6c diseal
Alcohol went down thank good less tailbacks into newry.
Hopefully we will still get them buying our cheaper diseal.

They reduced payment to €160 for under 23 but only for new applicants.

Anyone unemployed in thiscategory needs to further their education University, IT's PLC's fas CE scheme b4 we add to our long term un employed.

Greenmachine

Take your time enjoy your last few days off work and wrap up warm.

nesf

Greenmachine wrote: »

Mods have you decide who has made the most accurate prediction. If I recall correctly that poster would get special mention in the political forum.

I forgot.

Eh, might get around to it tomorrow maybe. If someone else wants to do it before then it'd be much appreciated!

Greenmachine

Mods have you decide who has made the most accurate prediction. If I recall correctly that poster would get special mention in the political forum.

dvpower

prinz wrote: »

No, block as a last resort. License and tax them. Simple. Many countries have gone down this route, France, Australia, USA, a lot of the EU.. hardly radical.

The restrictions in the states have caused many companies to move their servers offshore as well as their product development and admin (Ireland has picked up some of this business).

Not sure what the position is in France. Australia is the last place I'd want to emulate in term of gambling policy (they all seem to gamble, all of the time:eek:).

Its a bit of a moving target. Do you include gaming platforms like Betfair? How about spread betting? We did used to have a 10% rate here that we cut in the advent of internet gambling. We could probably make some revenue via a licencing system, but the market here is relatively small; I wouldn't be confident that it would be a good revenue earner.

When we did have the 10% rate, the Revenue had a team of people whose job was to go around betting shops and racecourses and place bets (and later verify that the bet, and its tax was submitted). When they went on course they were allowed to have a few drinks (to fit in) and claim this on expenses. Probably the best job in the world.:pac:

prinz

dvpower wrote: »

Block internet sites? Its a radical idea, I'll give you that.

No, block as a last resort. License and tax them. Simple. Many countries have gone down this route, France, Australia, USA, a lot of the EU.. hardly radical.

dvpower

prinz wrote: »

You tax the companies behind online gambling or get them to act as collector to collect from online gamblers. if they don't comply, block them.

Block internet sites? Its a radical idea, I'll give you that.

Daragh101

not a good budget imo, all cuts!
no stimulus package!

prinz

dvpower wrote: »

Not very practical. A lot of gambling these days takes place online. People who do gamble will just continue to gamble (at a zero tax rate) online.

You tax the companies behind online gambling or get them to act as collector to collect from online gamblers. if they don't comply, block them.

dvpower

seamus wrote: »

People who gamble will gamble irregardless. We should tax all gambling earnings @ 10%.

Not very practical. A lot of gambling these days takes place online. People who do gamble will just continue to gamble (at a zero tax rate) online.

[Deleted User]

This post has been deleted.

Tellox

zielarz wrote: »

That's not a fault of the petrol stations but high taxes. The government/EU are robbing over 50% of the price of the petrol as an excise.

My prediction on the 2010 budget:
1. at least 30% social welfare cuts
2. lower minimum wage to 5e/h
3. removal of levies
4. lower the 41% income band to 31%, it's immoral to take from anyone almost half of their money

And the celtic tiger will rise again!

This man makes sense.
Unfortunately it'll never happen

Also, the govt. are robbing FAR more than 50% from the price of petrol.. friend of mine works in a garage, and most mornings they absolutely pray to the heavens that you come in and buy a roll after filling up, otherwise their profits are literally zero.

seamus

the groutch wrote: »

one not mentioned is the betting tax, I can see it being put back up to 2%

People who gamble will gamble irregardless. We should tax all gambling earnings @ 10%.

meditraitor

Town councils to be abolished

prinz

Department of Arts, Sports and Tourism to be carved up and amalgamated into other departments.

granturismo

Apologies if this has already been mentioned.

Mr Lenihan conceded last night that the budget would be very difficult but he forecast that, “it is going to be the last of the very difficult budgets”.

12 months ago he said that we would have at least 3 years of difficult budgets, this being number 2. All his estimates have been wrong. He cant forecast.

the groutch

one not mentioned is the betting tax, I can see it being put back up to 2%

nattyguest

Scarab wrote: »

It's €1,500 off the 14% or 16% VRT amount....

Ah, I am an idiot, I see it now. Thanks

zielarz

amacachi wrote: »

I can't shed any tears for the petrol stations around here anyway, they've been completely taking the piss with their prices the last 5 years that I know of.

That's not a fault of the petrol stations but high taxes. The government/EU are robbing over 50% of the price of the petrol as an excise.

My prediction on the 2010 budget:
1. at least 30% social welfare cuts
2. lower minimum wage to 5e/h
3. removal of levies
4. lower the 41% income band to 31%, it's immoral to take from anyone almost half of their money

And the celtic tiger will rise again!

Scarab

nattyguest wrote: »

Isn't it misrepresenting a little to say €1500 off when it will only be one of two figures each less than €200, or am I missing/misunderstanding something?

It's €1,500 off the 14% or 16% VRT amount....

nattyguest

seclachi wrote: »

Car scrappage schemes are the biggest joke the motor industry has come up with for a while. It should never happen (and most likely wont), simply because we dont make any cars in this country, so the only effect of it would be to help out the Japanese, they would be better off just handing the money over to the garages, they`d get more out of it than the margins they make off cars.

Independent.ie now has a report stating:

Independent.ie wrote:

Where somebody trades in a car over 10 years old for scrappage, the Government will offer around €1,500 off the Vehicle Registration Tax on their new car. But this new car will have to have low emissions, putting it in tax bands A or B. These cars already attract the lowest road tax and VRT levels and are highly fuel efficient.

Cars that emit up to 120gms of CO2 every kilometre fall into Band A and attract a VRT rate of 14pc and owners pay €104 a year road tax.

Those in Band B with emissions between 121gms and 140gms have a VRT rate of 16pc -- and road tax of €156.

Isn't it misrepresenting a little to say €1500 off when it will only be one of two figures each less than €200, or am I missing/misunderstanding something?

[Deleted User]

amacachi wrote: »

Still, just a few hours left and we'll see what kind of silly ideas come out.

That's one thing we can be guaranteed 100%, silly ideas :rolleyes:

amacachi

hellboy99 wrote: »

True, but at present €1.14c isn't bad, it sure beats €1.21c at the other end of town. I was mainly making the point to job loses.

If fuel goes up there's everything going up with it.

Aye, I really can't see them putting fuel up much, there's too much fallout. If they did and prices rose they'd lose some of their best defence on the PS wages and SW cuts. Still, just a few hours left and we'll see what kind of silly ideas come out.

[Deleted User]

amacachi wrote: »

I can't shed any tears for the petrol stations around here anyway, they've been completely taking the piss with their prices the last 5 years that I know of.

True, but at present €1.14c isn't bad, it sure beats €1.21c at the other end of town. I was mainly making the point to job loses.

If fuel goes up there's everything going up with it.

That_Guy

Duiske wrote: »

Can't see a drop in the price of tobacco products myself. Health crowd would kick up murder. And they can't increase too much because the smugglers are ready and waiting. Maybe 50c increase on pack of 20 ?.

It'll be nearly €9 for a box of 20 then. If they raise it any higher the smugglers will be ready as you say.

If they're gonna be charging this then at least re-introduce 10 boxes.

Anyway cigarettes are the least of my worries.

I'm expecting petrol to go up by about 10 cent or so which I really hope it doesn't.

Alcohol to hopefully remain unchanged but it'll most likely go up by about 15 cent.

I'm expecting the minimum age that people can apply for social welfare will be raised to 23 or 24 years of age. If this happens are there gonna be more jobs created for young people?

amacachi

hellboy99 wrote: »

Sorry to be all doom and gloom but I predict that after todays budget and in the coming months there will more unemployment, more people hitting the poverty line and more people going north, and it just won't be for groceries. If fuel is hit and introduction of carbon tax, they'll be getting petrol, diesel, home heating oil and coal too up north. If that happens there will be a lot of filling stations in the border counties going out of business.

I can't shed any tears for the petrol stations around here anyway, they've been completely taking the piss with their prices the last 5 years that I know of.

[Deleted User]

Sorry to be all doom and gloom but I predict that after todays budget and in the coming months there will more unemployment, more people hitting the poverty line and more people going north, and it just won't be for groceries. If fuel is hit and introduction of carbon tax, they'll be getting petrol, diesel, home heating oil and coal too up north. If that happens there will be a lot of filling stations in the border counties going out of business.

amacachi

Tellox wrote: »

Smart budget;
...
Fuel up 5-7c

Yeah, let's get everyone to fill up their car as well while doing their shopping over the border.
I also very strongly doubt that the applause will be heard over the jeering.

westtip

Introduction of student loans?

Massive cuts in relief on pension contributions?

Cut in the amount that can be taken as a lump sum from pension fund from 25% to 20-22%?

Cut in the pension lump sum that can be taken by PS workers from 1.5 salary to 1.25 of salary. - yes did you know the buggers get this tax free lump sum without effecting their pension!

Whereas a private sector worker say with a 200,000 pension fund can take 50,000 tax free but then has to buy a pension with the remaining 150,000

BTW - for a teacher to buy a pension worth half their salary at retirment - say 35,000 per annum retiring at 60 woudl need half a million in a fund - and if they wanted the 95,000 perk of a lump sum they woudl need 595,000 int he the fund!

I assume he will look at rectifying this position.

No politician pensions can be taken until the age 60. (ha ha having a laugh writing that one)

wyndham

Non PPR tax to increase from €200 to €350 pa.