Bubba wrote: » Is there anyway around this as I only have a Dell?
Bubba wrote: » I've decided to develop an android app instead.
Genghiz Cohen wrote: » To sell Apps you need a Developer License. $99 from Apple per year. This also allows you to test apps on your own personal iPhone or on a 3rd party's iPhone as a beta tester.
Sparks wrote: » Granted this is from the US, but what we're hearing over here tallies with it:
paddy2k wrote: » That's about to change Gartner say that by 2012 it'll be Android and Symbian having the most smartphones out there. http://url.ie/2pjk
Sparks wrote: » Yes, one analyst is saying that. On the other hand, actual real data is saying something entirely different. Me, I go with data over projections. But, hey, that's just me.
The Corinthian wrote: » I would not necessarly say that those projections are correct, but I do think it is very foolish to simply develop on the basis of current data.
Sparks wrote: » Well, if your "business model" is to ignore trends (iPhone still climbing, it was announced two days ago that it was passing out the Blackberry in the global figures) and to ignore current data, might I suggest you take your funding to the bookies? That way you'll get faster feedback on your design decisions.
The Corinthian wrote: » Isn't jumping on a climbing bandwagon, because it is climbing, the logic that was used during the property speculation bubble?
Of course it is climbing now. However, if you want to build a business model you also need to look at two, three or five years ahead; and in this business even two years is a very long time - as the figures you presented demonstrate.
So with all due respect, you appear to be adopting the stance of an evangelist rather than analyst - which is not unheard of where it comes to supporters of Apple.
Sparks wrote: » Precisely. That's why I was pointing out the data, instead of saying "Oh, Android will be huge, develop for that!".
If Android or WebOS were going to be serious competitors to the iPhone, they should be growing faster now than they are, or offer something more than they do.
Instead they're very small in market share, growing slower than the market leader, and offer nothing as a "killer app" that can break the lockin that the iPhone appstore currently enjoys.
Nokia might have something with the new Maemo platforms, but only because they have so much weight to swing behind it in their deals with operators and retailers. Had they put UMA circuitry in the N900, you might have been looking at a real competitor because it'd have been the first phone that had a shot at solving the data offload problem natively - and operators would kill for that right now.
Except that I'm not a supporter of Apple. Personally, I find them bloody appalling to work with, I find the appstore policies hugely restrictive and unhelpful, and I don't really like the style they espouse. So calling me a fanboy as a rebuttal to my argument is not only ad hominem and weak-ass from the get-go, it's also hugely inaccurate.
What I'm am, however, is not blind or stupid. The statistics and data on the market dominance of the iPhone in this area is irrefutable, whether you like Apple's kool-aid or not. And one projection by one company for where the the market might be in several years is a ridiculous datapoint to base a business plan on, especially when (as you say yourself) it's so hard to predict accurately that far out in this market.
But from a business perspective, it makes no sense to go for anything but the iPhone platform right now. If the others do defy the odds and succeed, let others take the first step, then follow them.
The Corinthian wrote: » You could also have pointed at data in 2006 at how property prices were still going up and still be in negative equity now.
I think you overestimate the importance of the foothold that the iPhone has or that one of these other platforms could not displace it in the future.
Why does it need a 'killer app' - the PC had only one 'killer app' against Apple; it was cheaper.
Also, Windows API's aside, it was also a Hell of a lot easier to develop for, I can tell you.
Nokia has numerous problems, not least of all that it is stuck with its Symbian investment
Windows Mobile is possibly worse, to the point that HTC had to effectively hack it to make it usable. And Android, et al, are just not at the races yet.
I apologise, but that is certainly how you came across.
Again I agree, but I was responding to your dismissal of the idea. It is entirely plausible to believe that the iPhone might lose it's dominance within two years, thus making any such dismissal foolish, it is more than likely that is shall lose its dominance within five years.
Certainly I would not count on the opinion of one techno-journalist, but neither would I rely too much on it's present growth.
Which is my point, the odds change far too quickly and too often in this game.
Sparks wrote: » Do I think the situation is set in stone? No. Do I think you'd be foolish to not develop for the overwhelmingly dominant and currently fastest growing player in the market if your objective is to sell your work? Yes.
So please, don't tell me the Mac was easier to program for. I was there and it wasn't.
The Corinthian wrote: » Depends on what you're developing. Some software can take years to develop.
Unless your product cycle is pretty short, I think that you would be taking a major risk betting the house on any single platform.
I am simply saying you seem a little too certain of it's continued hegemony beyond a point in the future where it is wise to predict.
Actually I wasn't suggesting the Mac was easier to program for, I was saying Windows/DOS was, sorry if that was unclear. The Mac was an utter pain, remember ResEdit?
Sparks wrote: » Oh come on. On the iPhone? I've seen apps developed for the iPhone inside of a fortnight to a usable point. Our own took less than a month to port from a Windows version. Getting the software onto the appstore is usually the longer process.
Besides which, if you're taking years to develop your software, the underlying SDK will be obsolete, if not the actual platform itself by the time you finish.
At that stage, worrying about the market at all is an academic exercise.So you'll do what instead, develop for them all simultaneously? I can't quite see that speeding things along.
You want it done fast, pick one platform and go for it. And if you're going to pick one, pick the biggest healthiest one around. And that's the iPhone right now and there's no data out there that says that's going to change anytime soon.
The Corinthian wrote: » I wasn't talking about porting.
But if we are talking about developing an application from concept, then it becomes an issue.
I would not make a blanket recommendation as you have because not all software development cycles are the same.
It could be, which is one of the dangers with mobile development as it is still in far greater flux than the desktop/laptop or Internet browser markets. I can begin work on a Windows or browser based application that could take three years to get to market, but I can far more safely say that while the technology will change (requiring some underlying adjustments), it won't to the point that I will have to throw everything out the window and start again.
I would look at technologies that are almost certain to still be around in a few years
I don't think you will find data that it's going to change any time soon
I honestly don't think we can predict the future that way as something almost always pops up and surprises everyone when they least expect it.
I'm simply more cautious than you about the iPhone's dominance;
for me I think it will certainly retain it for 18 months, probably for up to 24 months and after that I wouldn't bet the bank on it.
Sparks wrote: » I've seen from-concept stuff developed for the iPhone in less time than that. That is not that uncommon in mobile development.
No, it really doesn't.Well, if you think my "blanket recommendation" covered everything from systems programming to cobol-written bank software, you'd have a point, but since this is the Mobile Application forum and we're talking about mobile platforms to write mobile apps for, I think we're safe enough to not have to worry about NASA writing shuttle flight control software on android...
Look, seriously - you can't turn round and say that we shouldn't consider the iPhone as it's too fluid a market to bet on the largest, fastest-growing, 97%-of-the-US-market-owning player; but we can bet on J2ME and talk about porting to platforms afterwards, even though J2ME doesn't run well on three of the four main deployed platforms.
Since mobile apps aren't huge, it's doable, but it's not trivial.
And If you're planning on a mandatory rewrite of your app before you can sell it to the largest segment of the market, you need to rethink your business plan!In which case, why waste time bemoaning the lack of perfect knowledge and why not just get on with coding?
It's impossible to rule that out; but it's also impossible to rule out dropping dead of a heart attack before you finish coding. We don't stop development because of the latter, so why would we stop for the former?
Besides which, you're going to have to do more to convince me that when there's strong data supporting one dominant platform and no data saying something else is going to eat that platform's lunch, that it's a good idea to develop commercial software to anything but that dominant platform.
It's just a bad idea without any supporting data beyond the vague hand-waving hope that maybe "something will come along" that will magically change the market. Maybe that will happen - in the meantime there's more money to be made coding for the iPhone, so I say go do that and when something happens to change the market, port your code then.
There's cautious and there's irrational paranoia.