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Premiership half time/full time betting log

Boxfresh

I'm going to try out the following for a few weeks to see if I can turn any sort of profit. It involves betting on the ht/ft market in the premiership where I bet on the underdog to be winning at half time but to get beat by the favourite at full time.

The average odds on this bet is about 28/1 so if I got 1 right every 20 games I'll be in profit. I will use the top 5 teams in the Premiership - Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City.

Take last night for example, Sunderland were winning at half time against Chelsea, then Chelsea went on to win the match. Odds of about 30/1 or there abouts.

I will use betfair prices as they tend to be the best and I will put €2 (betfair minimum bet) on each game.

Starting bank €100

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Boxfresh

Wednesday 19th August
Burnley/Man Utd @ 30
Stoke/Liverpool @ 34

Saturday 22nd
Portsmouth/Arsenal @ 25
Wolves/Man City @ 26
Wigan/Man Utd @ 27
Fulham/Chelsea @ 28

Monday 24th
Aston Villa/Liverpool @ 28

All €2 singles

Bank €86

boccy23

Boxfresh wrote: »

Take last night for example, Sunderland were winning at half time against Chelsea, then Chelsea went on to win the match. Odds of about 30/1 or there abouts.

Should have started last night.

On an aside and to support your theory a little, a Racing Post soccer specialist (Kevin Pullein maybe?) did an article last year about HT/FT on odds on shots and a) it was very poor value and b) often did not come off and overall was a "bad" bet.

fonda

Might be better value in it just betting when the weaker team are at home!

Boxfresh

We'll give this a go anyway and see what happens. It's just a bit of an experiment. If we have one winner in 4 weeks worth of matches (20 games) we'll be doing alright, any more winners in that time and it's a bonus.

All it takes is one lucky goal or penalty for the weaker side in the first half to take the lead and our bet will be looking good.

millpool

I did some basic analysis on this market a couple of years back and discovered there were about 8 teams over that particular season who had ht/ft turnarounds.

To me it seems the bookies price this as a classic mean occurence of ht/ft turnarounds simply divided by the number games so there might be value to be had if the cause of turnarounds can be identified. The odds on offer are much shorter than the real probability but if you get the criteria right you can rule out a lot of games and maybe get an edge. I seem to remember some of the basic criteria being slow starting/high scoring teams such as Chelsea and Man Utd playing against low scoring teams like Sunderland, Fulham, Birmingham etc. where the underdog might nick a first half goal before the stronger team gets into top gear in the second half and scores 2 or 3 goals, just like Chelsea last night.

I think to make a profit you'd need to extend the timescales over a full season as there will probably only be about 10-15 turnarounds in a season. You'll have to patient for winners but they'll be big when they come (I had 2 in one season both at 28/1). I also seem to remember not many teams had only one turnaround so that would make Sunderland and Chelsea good bets for turnarounds in later games in my opinion.

Good luck with it!

Healio

You must use betfair to back these markets. On average you are getting 10 points better than bookies

Boxfresh

Boxfresh wrote: »

Wednesday 19th August
Burnley/Man Utd @ 30

Looking good already, Burnley 1-0 at half time. Carrick missed a penalty just before the ht. Need man utd to win now!!

PCPhoto

Boxfresh wrote: »

Looking good already, Burnley 1-0 at half time. Carrick missed a penalty just before the ht. Need man utd to win now!!

b@llox ... I have carrick in my fantasy footy team

(token man utd player)

hawaii501

haha looks like your going to win with utd already

fonda

hawaii501 wrote: »

haha looks like your going to win with utd already

maybe not

mike65

I have a variation on this theme (which I am going in a virtual fashion for a few weeks)
pick the longest odds on any HT/FT in the top 2 divisions, the odds vary from about 20/1 or over 60/1 and usually involve the home fav leading HT and being beaten by the weaker away side. I wont post all the picks/results here, I just mention it as another angle.

Boxfresh

Liverpool 0 - 2 Aston Villa, half time

mike65

23/1 for Liverpool/Villa, didn't write down Villa/Villa as it would be shorter and therefore not part of my own experiment.

Boxfresh

Boxfresh wrote: »

Liverpool 0 - 2 Aston Villa, half time

Can't see them coming back though, although stranger things have happened. It would be a good start for this thread

Boxfresh

mike65 wrote: »

23/1 for Liverpool/Villa

did you get them odds on betfair mike? they look a bit low

PCPhoto

they're only 9/2 to win (Liverpool)

could be worth it - first 10mins of game will tell

Boxfresh

Sat, 29 August
Bolton/Liverpool @ 30
Burnley/Chelsea @ 40
Arsenal/Man Utd @ 30

Sun, 30 August
Portsmouth/Man City @ 32

All €2 singles

Bank €78

Boxfresh

If utd win now we'll be in profit. Fingers crossed!

Boxfresh

2 - 1 to utd! Hope it stays like that now

Boxfresh

Sat, 29 August
Bolton/Liverpool @ 30
Burnley/Chelsea @ 40
Arsenal/Man Utd @ 30 WIN

Sun, 30 August
Portsmouth/Man City @ 32

All €2 singles

Bank €138

Boxfresh

Sat, 12 September
Burnley/Liverpool @ 30
Arsenal(A)/Man City(H) @ 34
Stoke/Chelsea @ 30
Tottenham/Man Utd @ 29

All €2 singles

Bank €130

Boxfresh

Stoke have the lead against Chelsea with under 10 mins before half time!!

mike65

Bad luck.

Boxfresh

Sat, 12 September
Burnley/Liverpool @ 30
Arsenal(A)/Man City(H) @ 34
Stoke/Chelsea @ 30
Tottenham/Man Utd @ 29

All €2 singles

No winners this week. Close though!!

Bank €130

Juwwi

I'd say in the spainish league when barcelona and real madrid are playing that h-t f-t bet would be worth doing.especially real madrid.

marko91

only discovered this thread now it was made while ago so im wondering OP are u up or down money?how much?...if this works ill give it a tryout:p

Boxfresh

I started off with a bank of €100, I'm now at €130 after 3 weekends. I was very close to winning again yesterday.
All the odds are around the 28/1 mark. Imagine how long you'd be waiting for a horse to win at those odds! A long time I reckon. If you're going to try it out I'd advise you'd use betfair cos they odds are way better.

Boxfresh

robbie1977 wrote: »

I'd say in the spainish league when barcelona and real madrid are playing that h-t f-t bet would be worth doing.especially real madrid.

I may consider that. I'll have a look at it closer to next weekend

Boxfresh

Wigan/Arsenal(H) @ 32
West Ham/Liverpool(A) @ 30
Spurs/Chelsea(H) @ 28
Man City/Man Utd(H) @ 28

All €2 singles

Bank €122