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Prolonged cold spell possible as senior organization call the spell..

ninebeanrows

Thought i'd start a new leaf for this and if the mods dont like it
please tell me as i thought the new rules had a bit of lee way...?

Anyway starting from the top, It is now becoming clear that Winter
will bring its first severe winter cold spell. Whats amazing about
this spell is that it has been picked up on most major weather
model outputs at a remarkable timeframe and there is great
agreement. Obviously over the next 5 days things could change
so please dont take this forecast *too* seriously.

The synoptics involved throw up a pattern not seen for very many
years, 4 major high pressure systems are *expected* to link up to
form what we know as a "Omega Block". These scenario's have
been very rare in the last decade and thus startled us when the
charts started churning out. As we all know in the last decade are
weather and climate has swinged dramatically but as we learn
in life for every positive exchange there is almost always
a negative exchange. In the last 10 years cold spells have been very
rare and expectations are for a cold spell more typical of the early
90's, not exceptional by any stretch but to the knew genartions
of youngins it may seem exceptional.

Around February *5th* (thats around the time) we expect the new
regime to start to kick off. A deepl LP diving south into Britain with
high pressure building to the north. First we experience a biting northerly
for a few days before the winds switch to a northeasterly direction
as the LP sinks further south. By the time we reach February *10th*
winds will turn easterly before high pressure collapses on top in another
few days to leave cold crisp weather.

Snowfall will be most likely in the East and north of the country due
to the wind direction.

Any more detail is impossible at this range and please note
this forecast is subject to only a 60% Confidence

The major source that even shocked me and pulled my arm
into writing up this thread was the UK MetO monthly forecast
issued earlier this evening...

High pressure to the west of the UK is expected to recede slowly southwards during the period, with a cold or very cold spell expected in all areas for a time before temperatures slowly recover from the west later in February. Mainly dry and rather cloudy conditions with near normal temperatures are expected to dominate in early February, but north or east winds during the second week result in temperatures falling sharply, with widespread night frost, and spells of sleet or snow affecting northern and eastern areas. During the second half of the month the cold conditions are expected to give way slowly as a westerly flow develops across the UK, although it may remain generally dry in many areas.

Other organizations are also forecasting a much colder spell links
to follow...
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html
http://www.weathercheck.net/
http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/index.htm

Please note: In the coming days and weeks i might go crazy and ramp
about cold weather till i kill the board. I apologise for this, it is
due to the fact i was born after the great winters and i have
only dreamt of this situation above unfolding...

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Comments

Scubadevils

sounds exciting! due to go to Birmingham on the 6th of feb till the 9th! hope i don't miss anything :mad:

ninebeanrows

Should be an interesting few days

The cold will be longer than anything
we have had in recent times Felix so you'll
see all you need by the time you return
to Dublin which will be under feet of snow

Once in a decade event this..
All i'll say is save this chart, put it has your wallpaper, frame it..
You'll likely never see a better set up than this within the next
decade, the writings on the wall the big ones coming..watch
this space...
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn2642.gif

ninebeanrows

I have various theme songs in my head for this set of runs..

If these were to happen we would be facing a great hardship so
not at all good for elderly folk

I just hope ***********IF***************** this was
to come off people would prepare for this in a serious manner,
there hasnt been much serious cold weather for a long
time now

Gordon

But if it was to come off then how would people be able to prepare for it seriously? Because if it happens then we will only know of its existance when it happens, therefore we cannot prepare for it - as it is happening.

[Deleted User]

Gordon have you been taking your Donald Rumsfeld pills again

Weathercheck you've called the thread creation correctly here and I like the inclusion of the word possible

It is looking interesting :eek: but as I said earlier in the current indications thread, this could go either way.
It's difficult to second guess mother nature with any more than 60% certainty, this far out from an event.

ninebeanrows

What i find soo amazing is that the pressure systems move the wrong way :eek:
I have never lived through a chart like this
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn2641.gif

And probably still wont but its looking very, well interesting

ninebeanrows

Just in case thisn chart changes i saved and uploaded it
but can you contemplate what would happen if this chart came off? :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://img186.exs.cx/img186/7688/ooo.gif

ninebeanrows

Jeez i might stack up 100 posts talking to myself today

The current charts are reminicent of the good old days..
There is a large possibility of a prolonged sever cold spell
with 2 feet of snow in Dublin with 5 feet drifts, Easterly Glaes
causing blizzards and amazing drift

Please Note: This post may mean that weathercheck is in full ramp,
this could indicate the onset of cold weather and snow, but please
do not take any of his posts too seriously...yet.

[Deleted User]

Weathercheck wrote:

There is a large possibility of a prolonged sever cold spell
with 2 feet of snow in Dublin with 5 feet drifts, Easterly Glaes
causing blizzards and amazing drift

Its nowhere near certain of course as you know.
And as regards 2 feet of snow in Dublin....
In 1982 there was about a foot and a half there thanks to an atlantic weather system colliding with the cold air and just sitting on top of us , the pressure gradient making those East winds very strong.

Theres no confidence in that happening.
What could happen if this cold air arrives is a lot of snow showers in the East, but you would want a phenominal precipitation for 2ft of snow.
Theres no confidence in that.
So my advice is ramp away but make it clear thats all you are doing untill this becomes clear as theres a good chance it mightnt happen at all this far west.

Weathercheck wrote:

Jeez i might stack up 100 posts talking to myself today

Hey- I was hoping to hear your thoughts and reflections on your work experience in the met office- now there is an excuse for another thread

ninebeanrows

Totally FI but heres a scenario for a hell of alot of snow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2882.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2883.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2884.gif

As for the Easterly if things are going as they are **I'll** be advicing
my parents to get some supplied by Tuesday..

First bit of cold arrives in the form of a Northerly next
Saturday from there the cold spell never ends on this
run with 10 days of severe cold with snow events
by the bucket load

The cold spell begins at 168hr
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1682.gif

And hasnt ended by 384hrs
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn3842.gif
Infact its much more severe

It all hinges on the rise in Pressure over Greenland by 144hrs,
this could make or break the spell...

Gonzo

this is along time away and in Ireland the atlantic usually always wins regardless of what happens everywhere else in Europe, even if that cold weather does come we usually end up with just clear sunny skies and bitterly cold days with only a few flurries here and there. We would need nationwide daytime temperatures of 0C and below to guarantee snow, only over a week ago we all had a cold day with temperatures of around 1 to 3C and it rained everywhere. Im not gonna get excited about this at all untill next weekend and only if all the major forecasters are positive about this happening here with a similar severity.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

this is along time away and in Ireland the atlantic usually always wins regardless of what happens everywhere else in Europe, even if that cold weather does come we usually end up with just clear sunny skies and bitterly cold days with only a few flurries here and there. We would need nationwide daytime temperatures of 0C and below to guarantee snow, only over a week ago we all had a cold day with temperatures of around 1 to 3C and it rained everywhere. Im not gonna get excited about this at all untill next weekend and only if all the major forecasters are positive about this happening here with a similar severity.

God you really are pessimistic, theres alot more to snowfall than ground
temperature, its the temperature of the upper Atmosphere that
determines whether snow will fall, even if the ground temp is 0c the
higher level atmoshpheric temperatures must be at a certain level,
a 850hpa temperature of higher than -3 has virtually no chance of
giving snow to low levels whatever the ground temp. The Atlantic
is virtually dead not 1 of the last 10 runs have shown the atlanticat even half steam. As for it being dry and settled, well theres certainly a liklihood
of that especially towards the cold spell. I feel your being to
pessimistic mate, i know its probably the right attitude to have
at this time though

Gonzo

Weathercheck wrote:

God you really are pessimistic

sorry i dont mean to sound pessimistic lol, every time you post about the snow im always pessimistic, its just im going on what ive seen over past 12 years or so and I do remember the winters of the late 80s and early 90s and gawd they were great - winter wonderlands for weeks year in year out, I had no idea that these were gonna stop as they seemed normal for us at the time. I love snow so much its just me being bitter that i havent seen anything decent since my childhood days and every snow warning ever since then its just ended up being next to nothing in reality compared to what we used to get. I will keep my pessimistic snow posts away from here and just watch what happens and if the snow does come by the bucketload I will be one of the happiest posters here:)

lucernarian

I honestly feel that it wont snow as, EVERY single time in my life when snow was predicted, it did not appear and I was always taken by suprise when it snowed (I'd be around Weatherchecks age from what I make out). The first time it ever snowed when I expected it was last Christmas Day. It's quite possible that these winds will bring snow but its too close to call.

I'm almost certain that there will be daytime temps of 0 celcius or less but the 850 hpa charts dont show precipitation levels during the cold spell. Is there much chance of precipitation, i.e. significant snow as well as low temps?

Weathercheck, what kinds of snowfall amounts are we most likely to see over next week?

ninebeanrows

It all depends on how the synoptics develop there is still reasonable
room for error on this one still no more than 60% confidence..

But snowfall would depend on many factors that would have to
be looked at closer to the time, Eastern areas though would be
at the highest risk of snowfall...I really cant put even a guestimate
because the trend is there alright but the synoptics are not

[Deleted User]

Lads,
The reason why you havent seen much snow in the last ten years is basically due to a lot of extra storm activity in the Atlantic.
one half of one degree of a temp rise world wide is enough to create that.
The low pressures in the last decade or more have just kept on coming and developing out there probably because the athmosphere in the Atlantic has derived more energy from that slight temperature rise.

The tangible effects of that in our corner of western Europe is that we only get affected by occasional northerlys rather than prolonged Easterlies.

Put simply, the cold air has been kept at bay on the continent and has had no way of reaching Ireland.
An Easterly in January and Feb is much more potent than a Northerly,its got a colder source and when set up is capable of lasting longer at a time than a northerly.It also has a greater chance of turning "warm sourced" weather systems to snow as it creates more of a dividing line between warm and cold rather than the mix when it all comes in from the Atlantic.
Thats my understanding anyhow from looking at what has happened historically.

Whats interesting about the current models is that (1)the Atlantic is less active than usual and (2) That large area of high pressure *could* move this time to open the back door to an Easterly wind in the absence of an army of low pressures in the Atlantic to stop this-the UKMO are hinting at this happening.

Theres no certainty though but it is more likely than at any time in the last ten years or at least its the first time in either jan or Feb that conditions have tended towards this.
It has actually happened in March and April but thats generally too late for significant snow here given the suns radiation etc.

solas

This might be OT (mod call) but a question for weather check.
I'm in agreement with most others who have really come to enjoy the weather forum since weatherchecks posts, like Gonzo I remember the snow in the eighties and it was a common occurance then, there was snow every year and enough to have a few days off school

..so any talk of snow is a real tickle for childhood memories.
The question is..why have things changed so drastically?
Is this genuinely the evidence of global warming?
and if so, what is causing what appears to be above (recent) regular annual snowfall this year.
It has been the most I have seen in about ten years, being on the south eastern coast even a small flurry causes great excitment! but was a regular feature in the eighties.

and with regard to the hole in the ozone layer, this was a big deal for us too as it came to light when we were young, (the snow pretty much stopped falling after that call coincidently) ..as a physical feature its something I have personally seen too, which really freaked me out..big freaking hole in the sky.
any images of it laying around or links to would be good.

edit: sorry bout that earthman, posted simultaneously, looks like you were answering my question before I asked tho..;)

Mothman

Weathercheck wrote:

Please Note: This post may mean that weathercheck is in full ramp,
this could indicate the onset of cold weather and snow, but please
do not take any of his posts too seriously...yet.

I think this would be perfect to put into your signature

[Deleted User]

Weathercheck wrote:

But snowfall would depend on many factors that would have to
be looked at closer to the time, Eastern areas though would be
at the highest risk of snowfall...I really cant put even a guestimate
because the trend is there alright but the synoptics are not

Shallow areas of low pressure during these cold spells were common in the Irish sea in the mid to late eighties bringing showers dumping several inches of snow along the East coast and to parts of the midlands.
Once they drifted further inland though, they tended to dissapate and die out but kept going strong near the Irish sea.
A turned table so to speak

Once you had lying snow, temps during the day time once the Easterly is still there usually wouldnt get above freezing and drop very very low by our standards after dark.
I'm talking being able to walk on ice(though this is not recommended of course)

[Deleted User]

solas wrote:

This might be OT (mod call) but a question for weather check.
I'm in agreement with most others who have really come to enjoy the weather forum since weatherchecks posts, like Gonzo I remember the snow in the eighties and it was a common occurance then, there was snow every year and enough to have a few days off school ..so any talk of snow is a real tickle for childhood memories.
The question is..why have things changed so drastically?

See my post just before yours for my theory on why we've had little or no snow in ten years.
Unfortunately its going to be a future problem for snow lovers here.

As regards weatherchecks ramping....
The only real problem from a mod point of view was when he was presenting his speculation as an actual cast iron weather forecast.
He's not doing that now as he's saying it's possible and allowing for the fact that if he picked the best runs of models to favour snow, they may not be accurate.

solas

we used to throw buckets of water out onto the street the night before so we would have a skate rink when we woke up..thats how regular and cold it was...btw...thanks earthman, freaky asnwering my q before it was asked

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

Shallow areas of low pressure during these cold spells were common in the Irish sea in the mid to late eighties bringing showers dumping several inches of snow along the East coast and to parts of the midlands.
Once they drifted further inland though, they tended to dissapate and die out but kept going strong near the Irish sea.

However, the area between Wicklow and Greystones often missed this snow. either because it was rain or didn't precipitate at all. Certainly used to be prolonged periods when ground was frozen to travel across with tractor without leaving a mark. This would be every winter. We used these occassions to bring in fallen Elm trees. The ground has not been frozen like that since the 80s, if not mid 80s.

Earthman wrote:

I'm talking being able to walk on ice(though this is not recommended of course)

Have 4 ponds on the farm, so often had fun messing about on them.

[Deleted User]

I see the BWS a professional independent weather forecasting company are calling nearly two weeks of freezing weather for the UK.
The BBC's forecaster John Kettley works for them on a free lance basis.
You would have to subscribe to their service to get a detailed long range forecast but heres what they are saying about early february ie the end of next week and the following week...

SEVERE WINTRY WEATHER FOR UK IN FEB !!
Severe wintry weather with widespread blizzards and frost are set to hit the UK later in the first first week and into the second week of February. Watch this space !

I'm trying to avoid ramping...blast you weathercheck!!

ninebeanrows

Earthman you dont understand how close i am to ramping this board to shreds

ninebeanrows

nooooooooooooo
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=34589&whichpage=5&ARCHIVE=
Now you'll never post round here

[Deleted User]

oh yes I will

ninebeanrows

Damn :mad: So much for reverse phsychology :mad:

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

I'm trying to avoid ramping...blast you weathercheck!!

Dapper is going to have his work cut out...

The anti ramping pills are in the post.

Take one twice daily for next week, if symptons persist then continue course for another week.

ninebeanrows

Well 12z onto a bad trend, lets hope were back in 5th gear tomorrow
because were laggin in 3rd at the mo