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Starmer is in big trouble. If he goes, could gov fall - impact on the messy world we are in now

aidanodr

Starmer in alot of trouble here:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/16/five-key-questions-decision-peter-mandelson-security-clearance

The Guardian yesterday resurected all this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn53pnd5wr0t

The back story:

Peter Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the US was announced in December 2024, with him taking the role up two months later.

In between, he underwent a high-level vetting process, carried out by a specialist agency within the Cabinet Office, which includes looking at his credit history and criminal record, as well as undertaking an interview.

His appointment has been under intense scrutiny after Mandelson was sacked seven months into the role over his links with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Files into his appointment process have been released by the government for transparency.

On Thursday, the Guardian reported that Mandelson failed his security vetting, but the decision was overruled by the Foreign Office so he could take up the role.

Downing Street later confirmed the story and said that Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed his security vetting until earlier this week.

And now the top Foreign Office civil servant Olly Robbins is being pushed out of his role in the fallout.

Starmer has already faced calls to resign over claims that he misled Parliament in September 2025, when he claimed three times that “full due process” had been followed in the appointment.

The latest revelation has renewed calls for him to step down.

Absolute fuel to likes of Torys / Kemi Badenoch and to Nigel Farage. WE as in rest of Europe need this like a hole in the head, just as Starmer is moving the UK back into the EU. The good way he is handling this war of choice by Trump. Right now we need a strong boring leader that is Starmer at the helm in the UK. Last thing we need now is for Starmer to get moved on, labour to fall and an election resulting in Badenoch + Farage right wing UK gov, unwinding everything again.

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Boggles

Would be hilarious if Burnham didn't get elected.

The whole things is beyond messy, England politically are the new Italy.

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124469832#Comment_124469832

@Boggles It is far from being a cert. The hurdles he needs to jump over are not easy.

First he has to get the blessing of the NEC ( National Executive Committee ) to go ahead with all this.

Then, fight a by-election, no guarantee of winning that and a real possibility of Burnham losing to Farages REFORM party. Plus the people in Makerfield might not take too kindly to being "used" by what could be seen as personal ambition on behalf of Burnham. AND the fact there MP, Labours Josh Simons whom they elected has to an extent disregarded the electorate that voted him in in the first place by relinquishing the seat they gave him.

If burnham gets through all the above he then has to garner the support of 81 MPs on record to back his leadership challenge plus will need to become leader of the party ( not sure where in the timing of all this happens ).

Now you have two labour seats in play - Simons Seat in Makerfield + Burnhams seat in Manchester ( where he WAS the major ). BOTH could now be lost to farage or others.

Yes its a complete mess 100%. Its navel gazing inward looking UK, most of rest of world, if they are looking on are probably doing so with disbelief.

MeisterG

This is now playing out like some Middle Age epic. A Northern lord - should he win the Battle of Makerfield will march on London to claim his throne. Standing in his way is the evil lord Darth Farage and his growing hordes, as well as a recently established cult under Polanski. Even if Burnham overcomes these foes he must then displace the Steward Starmer. But even if he makes it that far - all he inherits is a divided party ruling a divided country that will wants to be divided socially, legislatively and philosophically. Truly feels like the times are darkening

aidanodr

@MeisterG "all he inherits is a divided party ruling a divided country"

And the possibility HE will be dethroned in a year or twos time also, when perceptively nothing much gets done.

I am coming to a conclusion that UK Politics is now being run like the Premiership football clubs. First bad result and the almost new manager is fired, rinse, repeat

csirl

The by-election will be hard to win if the Conservatives decline to run a candidate - which they could do - to add to Labours problems!

aidanodr

`Apparently this By-election will happen 18th JUNE ( LBC )`

midlander12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124469333#Comment_124469333

It's hard to know. It would certainly require a massive swing back to Labour compared to last week. I mean, if he's so popular, how come Lab, and the councils it ran under his mayoralty, lost every borough in Greater Manchester last week, with an average vote of not much above 25%?

Field east

in Ireland the party/s in power quiet often lose by bye elections . Popular reasons for this are:-

(1) it is not a vote to defeat the gov so voters area bit more free

(2) voters want to ‘tell ‘ the gov that it needs to do better so want to give it a ‘root up behind’

In the UK context v, if there is any truth in the above , then Starmer has 3 years to respond - if allowed.

It’s of interest that there were some very good financial / economic figs just released during the current turmoil

Do UK voters not realise that the Labour gov came to power in UNPRECIDENTED times and it takes time to navigate through the lot - and having inherited some undesirable elements re state of the country

EG Effect of Brexit, Covid, Ukr Ru war , Israel/ West Bank/ US war!., US Iran war, blocking Strait of Hormuz,dealing with The US /Trump

aero2k

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124470836#Comment_124470836

You make it sound like a C.J. Sansom book 😀.

Field east

IMO Burnham is living in Cloud Cuckoo land if he thinks that he can unite all parties to agree a way forward for the betterment of the UK population. He prides himself in getting a consensus across the bulk/all parties While mayor of Manchester. Local issues are very different from national and international issues

And in an Irish context we have had previous governments in the past at complete loggerheads with the opposition on various issues- real opposition in action. But there was a lot of agreement/ cooperation down at county council level

midlander12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124470836#Comment_124470836

So whose head ends up on a spike on the M25?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124469894#Comment_124469894

He already has approval from the NEC. The mayoralty isn't a "seat" and he doesn't have to resign it unless he wins the by-election so Labour can't lose both.

If he does get into the Commons getting to 81 MPs to back him seems like it will be a formality.

midlander12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124475720#Comment_124475720

The mayoralty isn't a "seat" and he doesn't have to resign it unless he wins the by-election so Labour can't lose both.

Apparently this is the case. For some reason I was under the impression that he had to resign as mayor to stand. It will be very interesting to see how the mayoral election goes if he is in fact elected as an MP.

What's happening to Greater Manchester Mayor role now Andy Burnham wants to be an MP - Manchester Evening News

University of Liverpool Professor of English and Irish politics, Jon Tonge, posted on X this morning to clarify comments about the subject made on BBC Radio 5 Live this morning.

Jon Tonge on X: "To clarify re Burnham (re 5 Live interview earlier): He remains Mayor of Gtr Man until/if he is elected MP for Makerfield. At that point he would legally forfeit his mayoral position and a GM Mayoral by-election process begins. If he loses in Makerfield he could continue as mayor" / X

Ozymandius2011

I think Starmer is little different from a Tory except on EU and NI policy, and even there, he is fenced in by a fear of offending the Red Wall Brexit voting seats.

Glenomra

Has Streeting boxed in Burnham by declaring his support for re-entering the EU. Does Burnham do the same or publicly agree with Brexit. Either way it will be difficult for him. Could get very interesting.

bored65

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124462189#Comment_124462189

Why doesn’t he stay in power for 26+ years and demolish the constitution and send millions of men to their deaths?

I hear that leads to 99% popularity

MeisterG

Whilst the UK has its own inherent problems - I still think that its predominant one is shared across the western world - which is that the pursuit of globalisation whilst economically coherent globally produces huge wastelands on a micro level. Maximising economic totality is not the same (in fact may contradict) high internal happiness. Without wishing for it - the polarisation we are seeing in the US and UK is not unique to them - it may just have hit them earlier

brickster69

Podium being set up outside number 10 as we speak.

jacool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570105#Comment_124570105

Looks like a 5th UK PM in the 2020s then.

Starmer has outlasted Sunak and Truss (combined!), but looks likely not to make 2 years in office.

dePeatrick

Am I hearing things or is this to music?

Migdal_Or

He's gone. Wait and see what the new PM brings. If he's strong on immigration, it'll be tents of the streets here again.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570197#Comment_124570197

Immigration to the UK has fallen off a cliff under Labour.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570223#Comment_124570223

I'm not saying the following in a sense that I advocate it, but it's clear to me that there has been a disquiet in Britain about immigration since at least the 1960s, particularly as a lot more non-white people showed up, and that the current griping about the boats is really just an expression of that and not really the main complaint. To the people who harbour this feeling, Labour's efforts to curb immigration, no matter how effective, doesn't change the fact that somewhere like Leicester's demography has radically changed in the last 60 years.

It seems like the main parties don't want to talk about this, but by not talking about it, all they're really doing is leaving an open goal for Reform and, even worse, Restore Britain. 'cause they will talk about it.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570271#Comment_124570271

Labour did talk about it and massively reduced immigration and all they got in return was people proclaiming they were "Reform lite" and actual Reform voters not believing them.

SteM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570197#Comment_124570197

The stats show migration to the UK is way down already.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/

This won't fit the agenda though.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570282#Comment_124570282

Again, for British people who cite migration as their big issue, I don't think current migration levels is the true crux of their concern, so Labour can reduce that as much as they want and still kind of miss the mark.

The problem for Starmer and his 'island of strangers' remarks is that people in places like Leicester might say it's already like that, not just at risk of becoming so.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570332#Comment_124570332

Well sure, that's fair enough, but then there is nothing the likes of Reform can do either (albeit they have now shifted toward talking about "remigration").

If they don't focus on or talk about immigration they are also accused of ignoring the problem. It is a pretty hard square to circle.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570343#Comment_124570343

Yeah and the very mention of remigration by anyone remotely mainstream should be rather alarming indeed because it's one of those vague terms that could range from deporting new immigrants, all the way to deporting new immigrants, established ones, and also their descendents. At its worst interpretation it's calling for ethnic cleansing.

The problem for Labour is that they straddle an increasingly uneasy coalition of traditional northern areas who liked Labour for their pro-labour policies and then a more urban, southern cohort who liked Labour's social policies. But the two sides really aren't on the same page with immigration, making every Labour policy on it politically-fraught.

Reform don't really have this problem.

Thesmallfarmer

The problem alone is not emigration .

The problem is welfare .There is a big % of emigrants drawing big social wefare who have never worked but alongside this you have 3rd and 4th generations British house holds similar.

Big Ears

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124570396#Comment_124570396

Well those are genuine economic issues. I think what some of the previous posters are alluding to, is there's a high proportion of the British population, who'd prefer if there was less black and brown people around the place.

Regardless if they're working or not. Many would happily even take economic decline to achieve this.