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Is Russia at war with Europe? UK thinks so, possibly by 2030. Is Ireland ready defence wise?

aidanodr

With the resignation of UK Defense secretary John Healey over the "Defense of the Realm" budget not being at all sufficient and the far more serious imminent threat from Russia etc … the palpable thing coming through from the UK intelligence is we are in far more serious threat than we think. British intelligence saying an attack from putins Russia could come as soon as 2030.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/11/uk-defence-funding-john-healey-keir-starmer-offer

OK, we might decide to view this as Chicken Licken, the sky is falling in. That all this is a load of alarmist cr*p. And shur Russia is bogged down in Ukraine how the hell will they ever invade Europe, UK, Ireland. OR as I hear alot of - who is ever going to invade us, a tiny island off the coast of the UK and Europe … shur dont we have far bigger problems like housing.

My view always has been - re our tradition of neutrality - Just because we are neutral DOES NOT MEAN we completely shirk all responsibility for DEFENCE of this country. It seems the Defence of the nation is the prime thing and at the top of the list for governments of many other countries inc the UK.

Kaja Kallas recently visted Dublin and had some comments on all of this:

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/ireland-press-remarks-high-representativevice-president-kaja-kallas-irish-minister-foreign-affairs_en

I notice this which is surely a good thing:

In February, Ireland launched its first Maritime Security Strategy, setting out the plan to better protect its interests at sea. Ireland's commitment to increase defence spending by 55% by 2030 sends a clear signal that Ireland is stepping up.

About time no. 1: - successive governments have left our military wither on the vine. We still DONT have a primary military radar system, so we really dont know who/what is flying over or around this country? Though I do note this is perhaps getting addressed finally:

"Ireland is procuring its first dedicated long-range primary military radar system through a €500 million government-to-government agreement with France. The system will fill a long-standing national security gap and is expected to be fully deployed by the end of 2028."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/world/europe/ireland-defense.html

About time no 2: - Surely, being an Island nation we should have a top of the line Navy AND be utilizing DRONE Tech to its fullist to cover security of our waters & air. But unfortunately and apparently, we only have one ship active??? We just do not have enough personel? I pass through monkstown in Cork most weeks and look across at rushbrook docks by Cobh looking at 2 ships, at least, sitting at dock for a year or two now. More docked at hawlboline.

Hopefully all this is getting sorted and fast BECAUSE in a way we are already at war with Russia via Cyber / grey warfare. I think the HSE cyber attack few years back originated from St Petersburg. As mentioned above the UK today are taking this threat of War - not just in Ukraine - from Russia etc in other countries across Europe is only a matter of time? The UK MOD and intelligence are seeing this as a very serious threat, i think we need to take this just as serious?

Over to ye ….

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rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565637#Comment_124565637

And neither is Ukraine.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565639#Comment_124565639

So , we would be part of an EU army . But each country would do their own thing?

If we joined any military alliance, then our influence on possible military action would be minimal. The great powers, Germany, France, etc would drive military intervention. And I would not trust either of those countries. They simply do not share the same values we do. And indeed they don't appear to share the expressed values of the EU itself.

We have Macron and Merz both opposing any role for the EU as a mediator in the conflict in Ukraine. The same two gentlemen who supported Trumps meddling. In fact Macron , before the war started, was flying from Paris to Washington to mediate but now , according to these two, peace and settlement must be off the table and re-armament is the way to go. Before we get into any alliance we need to know what values we are suppose to be defending. I, for one, would not want to see our troops defending the global political viewpoint of either these two 'world leaders'.

As , I said, neutrality has served up well and we need to step carefully before we get into any alliance.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565727#Comment_124565727

We are not going to be part of an EU army, but if we were part of anything it would be a defensive alliance.

We have Macron and Merz both opposing any role for the EU as a mediator in the conflict in Ukraine.

Yes, because as they both rightly assert we are not neutral in the conflict so can not mediate.

As , I said, neutrality has served up well and we need to step carefully before we get into any alliance.

We are not neutral. We are part of the broad European alliance already realistically. We are militarily pointless so don't have to worry about it.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565733#Comment_124565733

Is Nato not a defensive alliance with the majority of the same countries? They were dragged in to Afghanistan.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565739#Comment_124565739

They were dragged into nothing and we were also in Afghanistan.

JPCN1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058439687/is-russia-at-war-with-europe-uk-thinks-so-possibly-by-2030-is-ireland-ready-defence-wise

Our treatment of our security and defense forces has always been truly shameful. I don't expect to see much more than lip service from this government.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565743#Comment_124565743

Articel 5 was invoked, so yes they were.

I dont think the Irish public want the sort of neutrality some posters are trying to sell here.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565748#Comment_124565748

I am aware it was invoked. There is no enforcement mechanism for it and the majority of NATO countries were not engaged in offensive operations in Afghanistan prior to the ISAF UN mission.

A UN mission Ireland also engaged in.

I'm also not trying to sell neutrality. I think it is stupid. I am on the side of the EU.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565695#Comment_124565695

If it had made threats and not done anything it would be a "Paper Tiger". But that's not what it has done. It has invaded and gone to war. It has put ships and aircraft off Irelands coast.

That is not a Paper Tiger. That mindset is a mistake. Ireland might not need to join EU or NATO. But a navy with only one ship at sea and non with a working deck gun. Or no suitable aircraft to police a rogue aircraft it's a farce.

Flinty997

The fear mongering that Ireland would be part of a European army is ridiculous. Ireland simply doesn't have the military resources to do that, and never has. Ireland can't even meet it's domestic requirements never mind provide international ones.

The small bit of peace keeping Ireland does is entirely different. It's very useful to keeping irish it's troops trained and a bit of experience. While providing service to the UN and international goodwill. But it's a different thing.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565773#Comment_124565773

I agree with your points regarding our navy and airforce.

I dont thunk Russia is or will be at war with Europe. It would serve no long term purpose for them, but they are run by a dictator who could become even madder.

I think the public view neutrality as not having obligations to join wars with other countries but to choose the engagements we want to take part in on a case by case basis

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565727#Comment_124565727

What has Ukraine got to do with a hypothetic scenario involving helping Israel?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565785#Comment_124565785

I assume you mean with the EU, as they quite literally are at war with Europe at the moment.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565850#Comment_124565850

Yes, they would achieve no political goal by being at war with eu or nato. They had clear political goals in attacking Ukraine but that has blown up in their face.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565861#Comment_124565861

They weren't political goals. They didn't want Ukraine joining EU or NATO they want military buffer zone from NATO. (Which is daft because there was no NATO threat). That's only partially accurate though it's really empire building by Putin. As such its a military objective not a political one.

Before the war Russia had strong economic links to Europe and elsewhere. It was doing better than it had for a very long time. Putin threw this all away for military ambition. NATO was the weakest it's ever been. It's now rearming.

All stupid. But Ireland wasn't even equipped to deal with peace time policing. It's certainly not equipped to deal with a rogue state just that might disrupt energy, communication or aircraft flights just out of badness. Never mind drugs or other such policing

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565785#Comment_124565785

That last is a correct assessment, and is really more a position of being non-aligned than neutral.

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-soldiers-eu-battlegroup-irish-defence-forces-eu-military-6676230-Apr2025/

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565831#Comment_124565831

The hypothetical scenario is Ireland participating in a EU army because of the threat from Russia and then finding common cause with major powers in EU would are supportive of Isreal. Merz has said he would invite Netanyahu to Germany despite a ICC warrant for his arrest. Germany and France seem happy with genocide in Gaza.

Before we join any alliance we need to make sure we share similar values. Clearly we do not. In fact , to me , it is clear that Germany, Czechia and others don't share the values of peace enshrined in the EU values and aims. In particular

contribute to peace and security and the sustainable development of the Earth
contribute to solidarity and mutual respect among peoples, free and
fair trade, eradication of poverty and the protection of human rights
strict observance of international law

tom1ie

If the EU are so worried about the Russian influence, surely the EU would want to bolster its defence in the North Western flank (Ireland) which is currently blind in the sea and air.
Can we not avail of any EU grants to bolster spending on defence and navy and air drones for example?
Kinda like when we got the EU money towards the cost of our Motorways.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566017#Comment_124566017

It's a ridiculous scenario. Israel is not in Europe. "Support for Israel" is terminology so vague as to be meaningless. Apparently I support Israel's genocide despite calling it a genocide because I criticise Jeremy Corbyn.

You've said that Germany, Czechia and others do not share these values but offer no detail on this.

There are reasons to maintain neutrality and there are reasons to abandon it. Your scenario is not a good reason for the former.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566037#Comment_124566037

The argument for rearmament within the EU centres around Ukraine. But it is being pushed by countries who have no problem with a little genocide going on in the middle east. Both conflicts are outside the EU and therefore I consider the same rules and opinions and policies should apply to both.

Merz , in one of his first official foreign visits , went to Isreal, while a genocide was proceeding in Gaza, and met with Netanyahu even though he is under sanction of the ICC. . This was very well reported but here are a couple of links for you.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/7/germanys-merz-meets-netanyahu-under-shadow-of-israels-war-on-gaza

https://www.newsofisrael.com/news/historic-first-visit-german-chancellor-merzs-meeting-with-netanyahu/

His visit to Israel, and his statement that he would invite Netanyahu to Germany clearly indicate absolutely no regard for the rule of international law and the jurisdiction of the ICC.

The position of Germany and others in blocking EU sanctions has been so well reported, even in UK news outlets, that I didn't feel I needed to provide links. But again, here are links.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-866062

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-eu-israel-sanctions-gaza-hamas-war-v2/a-73871832

To contribute to peace and to respect international law are tow of the stated aims of the EU. It is fair to criticise Merz in both respects and to conclude that Germany now no longer aligns with the aims and values of the EU. I , personally , certainly no longer align with the values of the German chancellor. And unless that changes, I would oppose any support for the position Merz and a possible EU army.

Simply put, I do not trust the leadership of the EU's major powers.

I am well aware that it is possible to criticise Jeremy Corbyn and to also criticise Israels genocide in Israel.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566361#Comment_124566361

Not remotely the same thing. Ukraine is in the middle of joining the EU and is fighting for its life. Israel is completely and utterly irrelevant to Irish and European defence. You've made up a silly, impossible scenario that is never going to occur as the basis for your argument.

There are reasons to question and/or oppose Ireland joining NATO, increasing its armed forces or whatever. None of these involve Israel.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124565645#Comment_124565645

Why do you think Finland and Sweden recently joined NATO after having a policy of neutrality for decades?

They don't have their heads stuck in the sand like we do.

Talk of not coming to the aid of a fellow EU country if attacked is pure scumbaggery. We want the benefits of EU membership but won't help a fellow member state? "Sorry pal, we're only here to take not to give"

As noted above, such an attitude certainly wouldn't be forgiven or forgotten. We would become the pariahs of western Europe.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566406#Comment_124566406

The EU is a economic alliance not military alliance, it is not like being in Nato. What you are describing as pure scumbaggery is the policy we followed through ww2.

I think we would assist these countries if they were attacked but the Irish public does not appear to want to sign formal agreements in this regard.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566406#Comment_124566406

Finland and Sweden are on the frontline. Which is little different to Ireland being stuck out in the fringe.

Ireland really has nothing useful to contribute to European security with it's current resources. It can't even manage it's own security.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566425#Comment_124566425

Assist how? Some encouraging words?

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566425#Comment_124566425

What you are describing as pure scumbaggery is the policy we followed through ww2.

Which was completely morally indefensible. We even refused to take in Jewish child refugees fleeing for their lives, but had no problem taking in German orphans after the war (as long as they were Catholic)

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566464#Comment_124566464

The same way we have assisted Ukraine , equipment, medical supplies, military vehicles, housing refugees fleeing the war zone.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566449#Comment_124566449

We could start by stopping being a net drain on the security of Europe, so yeah being able to police our own backyard would be a very positive contribution from us for a change. That is quite literally the very least we could or should be doing.

BTW in the modern era the geographic advantages we relied upon in the past are less and less relevant. We're very much on the frontline when it comes to cyberwarfare, destabilisation of the democratic process, etc.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566472#Comment_124566472

It is the popular approach since the founding of the state, unfortunately. It must be hard to consider the majority of the Irish public scumbags.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566488#Comment_124566488

Ireland is a very long why from doing any of that. Decades away..

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124566474#Comment_124566474

Don't need to change anything to do same thing as they are doing now then. The housing has been shambolic.