https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2026/01/05/selected-declared-candidates-for-the-2026-galway-west-and-dublin-central-by-elections/
Party/Grouping
Dublin Central
Fianna Fáil
Cllr. John Stephens
Sinn Féin
Cllr. Janice Boylan
Fine Gael
Cllr. Ray McAdam
Labour Party
Ruth O’Dea
Social Democrats
Cllr. Danel Ennis
Independent Ireland
People Before Profit-Solidarity
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
Aontú
Ian Noel Smyth
Green Party
Cllr. Janet Horner
Irish Freedom Party
The Irish People
National Party
Ireland First
Paul Fitzsimons
Centre Party
Andrew Kelly
Independents
Cllr. Malachy Steenson Gerry Hutch
Candidates so far.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Central
Probably May 22nd
So this is a crap election for FF, a crap election for SF and worryingly a good election for Hutch or Steenson.
The last two are fluff and going nowhere. Seems despite a bigger campaign the novelty is wearing off for Hutch, his vote was down
Its a reasonable election for Hutch AND Steenson, if you take it them as being homogeneous.
But unless that cohort of criminals, racists and liars can come together and run agreed candidates in constituencies with a higher incidence of deprivation like Central, there are no real prospects for them.
Does any1 have a link to Gavin Reillys Tallys Sheet for Dublin Central? Thanks
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1US18ZgI6Ix60blkP8hgZ_jOC9NKjhaNyrnvjfTkyzqw/htmlview
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1hSWKnWj5LDwx_dluW4y5fsKagtMar43KJ_uAQclgeY0/htmlview
Steenson didn't look very happy on virgin media news. Looked like he was going to burst into tears 😅
SF failing yet again to be the chief opposition party. Martin and mc Donald's days must be numbered.
Three parties can be seen to have failed based on expectations in both constituencies. FF, SF and Aontu.
Aontu is a leader cult, so nothing is going to happen about that; but they were polling strongly ahead of Labour in national polls recently and were putting it out there that they were on the way up over fuel prices etc etc. Flopped.
FF have nobody to replace Martin and have the ability to gain something from the EU presidency, they will likely let him stay on til that. An equivalently bad by-election (DBS 2021) came before them being returned to Government after all.
MLMD however could be ousted. SF have screwed up basically every election since she took over. 2019 LE was a wipeout. 2020 GE they ran too few candidates; 2024 LE they ran too many. 2024 GE did not deliver the results they wanted; and now they've almost certainly lost BEs in two seats where they topped the polls in 2024.
I'd prefer mlmd to stay put and drive the SF vote down further, with labour and Soc Dems picking up more votes in their place.
Hutch got 117 transfers from the FG guy, go figure. Boylan only 196.
Ennis & Horner got 1k+ each
We have no real opposition, and it shows in the by-elections. If Mary Lou is disposed of, Mc Shouty from donegal won't cut it either.
Hutch eliminated, only Ennis, Boylan and Horner left. One count and Ennis will be elected.
MLMD definitely looked worried on the telly. But SF are in the same position as FF with their leader. Who is a better replacement? Also SF have the directors in that other jurisdiction having a disproportionate say in the party. Unusual position.
I find the huge FG transfers to the SD's amusing.
These are clearly people who have paid more attention to Holly's lovely wavy hair than to reading her policy proposals. The SD's have some very ambitious plans to increase social spending combined with aggressive taxation raising to fund it. I'm guessing the FG'ers who have transferred to the SD's so strongly aren't even aware of this.
But who cares? Look at all the fantastic coverage the SD's are getting on TV, and look at just how lovely Holly's hair looks.
It's an anti Sinn Fein transfer. They want FG to win and if not them they vote 2nd for the non SF candidate topping the polls.
That's quite obvious. It's also obvious SD will never be in a position to enact these taxation policies you think people should worry about.
It makes sense when you think about it. At that stage the votes can only go to SD, SF, Greens or Hutch and they mostly went Green and SD. Where else would you expect those votes to go. If you give a preference to most of the ballot to stop people like Hutch getting in then you will see some transfers like that.
And anti-Hutch, who might be even worse than SF in their eyes
I don't think he was being factored in as a possible winner by people who would think deep enough to use tactical voting.
The Siege of Ennis tonight in Dublin!
Its amazing how someone can do so few interviews and become a TD.
Are interviews the only reason to vote for somebody? More likely it's down to local reputation and party reputation...
anyone know how the hutch / Steenson types did in Galway……that citizens journalist ‘tard’ with the dub accent dwyer was endorsing one guy would be interesting to hear how he got on
Sinn Fein are looking a little isolated in this left alliance Their single biggest transfer came from The Monk, at a healthy 37% transfer rate. Not quite at running mate level but still a good transfer nonetheless
Excluded on the second count with 890 first preferences.
Which was still better than People Before Profit - Solidarity, interestingly.
I wonder if the day of Murphy and Boyd-Barrett and their shouty Marxist guff is now truly gone. As Ireland has returned to great prosperity, its clear that champagne socialism is running rings around sackcloth and ashes.
The Soc Dems will make excellent coalition partners for FF and FG from 2030 to 2035.
If FG supporters are salivating about easy coalition partners that should be warning enough for the Soc Dems.
Will they make the same mistake as all the other cannon fodder(Greens, Lab etc) still picking up the pieces of their parties after paying the inevitable price of taking the soup with FF or FG or both together? Who knows, hopefully not.
I think it would be fair to say that SF are not picking up the left transfers they need. Other than the final count with Horner's transfers , and 430 from PBP the two big transfer blocks to Boylan came from Steenson and Hutch. (356 and 1641).
SF rhetoric in the past while is more far right than left. I think they need to recalibrate and decide what they actually stand for otherwise they will lose more and more of the left vote.
I'd agree with you on this. They haven't effectively fought back against the 'sellout' anti 'Irish' 'Ireland for the Irish' rabble that turned against them. Those voices are doing damage and SF need to engage them and challenge that. As I said on the other By Election thread, that may or may not need a new leader.
Thing is, at some point you have to just go in and contribute to actually running the country. There's only so much shouting you can do from the sidelines before people get tired of it.
Actually a good chance you'll get a good chunk of what you want in a programme for government, too. Look at the Greens, most of the policies that were actually implemented in the last government came from their leg of the stool.
FF and FG, without the Greens, have struggled to actually do anything.
Bacik spoke before that the centre-left (Labour, Soc Dems, Greens) should just make their own bloc of common policies, and tell FF and FG that if they want them in, then they all go in.
Would be far from my preference for the Soc Dems to go in with FF and FG but at some point, you have to accept that it's the only option and make a lasting impact at the risk of losing seats. There's also an element that it's better you go in and get your policies implemented instead of the likes of Aontú or Independent Ireland.
Climate issues being a major feature in politics is cyclical. It's not as en vogue as it was in 2020 but it will come around again, as will the Greens.
In an idealistic political situation, yeh, that is a fine POV In the real world smaller parties have been cannon fodder for FF FG. That's the reality as I see it. Unless that FF FG hold is broken, nothing will change. It's up to the parties of the left to do it. If they can hold their noses and go in with FF FG, surely it cannot be difficult to hold their noses and coalesce with others who are left and lean to the left.
Exactly 💯 in my humble opinion.
Remember the convenience of this Dail for the first time? She got the party down from the North down for the 'celebration'…like why? She was going into her usual moany opposition role.
